7/30/2019 Yaning BCRRA 2013 (2)

1/18

Quantifying the effect of climate change on

the deterioration of a flexible pavement

Authors: Yaning Qiaoa, Andrew Dawsona, Tony Parrya,

and Gerardo FlintschbaNottingham Transportation Engineering Centre (NTEC),

University of Nottingham, Nottingham, United Kingdom.

bVirginia Tech Transportation Institute (VTTI),

Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg (VA), United States.

Presenter : Andrew Dawson, Yaning Qiao

27 June 2013

7/30/2019 Yaning BCRRA 2013 (2)

2/18

Research background

Research area: the long-term impact of climate changeon the pavement maintenance and life-cycle costs.

Part of the collaborative programme between NTEC

and VTTI.

Research framework: Step 1: Investigation of climate change

Step 2: Pavement performance modelling

Step 3: Maintenance intervention strategies Step 4: Life-Cycle Costs Analysis (LCCA)

7/30/2019 Yaning BCRRA 2013 (2)

3/18

Contents

Personal background

Aims and objectives of this paper

Methodology

Results

Conclusions

7/30/2019 Yaning BCRRA 2013 (2)

4/18

Personal background

MSc at Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden(2008 10)

University of Nottingham in the U.K. (2011- 14)

Exchange student at Virginia Tech (2012-13)

7/30/2019 Yaning BCRRA 2013 (2)

5/18

Aim and objectives of this paper

Aim To evaluate the long-term effects of climate change on a typical

pavement in Virginia, USA.

Objectives To investigate the future climate in Virginia

(MAGICC/SCENGEN).

To model the pavements performance under the future climate

(MEPDG). To investigate the effects of a method of mitigating performance

deterioration.

7/30/2019 Yaning BCRRA 2013 (2)

6/18

Methodology

Do you believe inclimate change?

Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change (IPCC)

7/30/2019 Yaning BCRRA 2013 (2)

7/18

Methodology

Emission Scenarios A1FI

A1B

B1

7/30/2019 Yaning BCRRA 2013 (2)

8/18

Methodology

An example ofMAGICC/SCENGEN outputs

Emission scenarios Temperature increase fromnow to 2050 (C)

2050 A1FI 2.02A1B 1.72B1 1.26

7/30/2019 Yaning BCRRA 2013 (2)

9/18

Methodology

A typical pavementstructure in Virginia

AC PG 70-22 50mm

AC PG 64-22 63mm

AC PG 64-22 75mm

GB A-1-a 125mm

SB A-7-6 150mm

3800 AADTT, growth rate: 0%

Groundwater: app 1.3 m below ground surface

SG A-7-6

7/30/2019 Yaning BCRRA 2013 (2)

10/18

Methodology

-5

0

5

10

15

20

LongitudinalCracking

AlligatorCracking

IRI Total Rutting Subtotal ACRutting

Granularrutting

Sensitivity analysis (+5%) for climatic factors

Temperature

Precipitation

Wind speed

Solar radiation

Ground water

Temperature is the most

influential environmental

parameter!

7/30/2019 Yaning BCRRA 2013 (2)

11/18

Methodology

7/30/2019 Yaning BCRRA 2013 (2)

12/18

Methodology

02000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

Histogram of temperature (10years hourly air temperature

records)

Original

A1FI

A1B

B1

7/30/2019 Yaning BCRRA 2013 (2)

13/18

Results

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0 20 40

mm/m

Years

longitudinal crackingBaseline

A1FI

A1B

B1

0

2

4

6

0 20 40

%

Years

Fatigue cracking Baseline

A1FI

A1B

B1

0

10

2030

0 20 40

mm

Years

RuttingBaseline

A1FI

A1B

B1

0

1

2

3

0 20 40

mm/m

Years

IRIBaseline

A1FI

A1B

B1

7/30/2019 Yaning BCRRA 2013 (2)

14/18

Results

0

5

10

15

20

25

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

mm

Years

Rutting

Baseline

A1FI

A1B

B1

18 mm15 mm

5 years 9 years

7/30/2019 Yaning BCRRA 2013 (2)

15/18

Results

PG 64-22, 70-22 PG 76-16

Mitigation method

Upgrade all binders to (PG 76-16)

7/30/2019 Yaning BCRRA 2013 (2)

16/18

Results

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0 20 40

mm/m

Years

longitudinal crackingBaseline

A1FI

A1B

B1

Binderupgrade

0

2

4

6

0 20 40

%

Years

Fatigue cracking Baseline

A1FI

A1B

B1

Binderupgrade

0

10

2030

0 20 40

mm

Years

RuttingBaseline

A1FI

A1B

B1

Binder

upgrade

0

1

2

3

0 20 40

mm/m

Years

IRI Baseline

A1FI

A1B

B1

Binder

upgrade

7/30/2019 Yaning BCRRA 2013 (2)

17/18

Conclusions

For the investigated road in Virginia under climate condition in 2050:

An increase in temperature tends to accelerate pavement deterioration.

Longitudinal cracking, fatigue cracking, and rutting are found to be

affected by climate change.

IRI and granular rutting is found to be less affected.

Reduction in service life.

Limitations in the models (MAGICC/SCENGEN, MEPDG, EICM).

Upgrading binder in pavement design can address the problem. Future

work will be performed on costs.

7/30/2019 Yaning BCRRA 2013 (2)

18/18

Thank you for your attention!