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Education Insider: 2014 Outlook

Ben WallersteinCo-FounderBen@whiteboardadvisors.com

www.whiteboardadvisors.com

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Education Insider Insights

We harness the wisdom of well-connected influentials to provide insights and predict policy outcomes for stakeholders in the education debate.

Education Insider is a monthly report that cuts through the noise and provides real-time insights on national education policy trends, debates, and issues—from the handful of decision makers that are really driving the process. We combine a survey of key education influencers with our own analysis to provide a unique perspective on the current state of debate.

Who Are The Insiders?• Current and former White House and U.S. Department of Education

leaders; • Current and former Congressional staff;• State education leaders, including state school chiefs and former

governors; and• Leaders of major education organizations, think tanks and other key

influentials.

Survey Insiders

Analyze Results

Report Insights

Drive Action

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Timing of ESEA Reauthorization

Question: About when do you believe a final ESEA bill will be signed into law?

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Date of Insider Survey

Apr. '12

Jun. '12

July '12

Aug. '12

Sept. '12

Nov. '12

Dec. '12

Jan. '13

Feb. '13

Mar. '13

Apr. '13

May '13

Jun. '13

July '13

Sept. '13

Oct. '13

Nov. '13

Jan. '14

12%

33%

10% 12% 18%8%

15%3% 8% 3%

0%

29%

5%

10%

20%18%

9%

10%

8% 4% 4%

8%

4%

24% 33%

35%

32%36%

33% 20%

29%25%

8%

19%10%

4%

11% 17%

7%

35%29%

40%32% 29%

50% 55%63%

71%

92%

77%87%

81% 85% 80%93%

100% 100%

Timing of ESEA Reauthorization By Dec. 2013 By Jun. 2014 By Dec. 2014 January 2015 or laterAs of January

2014, 100% of Insiders think that ESEA will not be reauthorized until January 2015 or later.

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A New Era of Federal Policy

NCLB was due to be reauthorized in 2007. In September 2011, the Administration announced that they would provide states with flexibility on ESEA through the 2015-2016 school year. Since 2011, 42 states and the District of Columbia have received ESEA waivers. States that have received waivers

States with pending waiver requests

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Waivers Aren’t a New Response to ESEA

Nov. 27, 2013: Federal Register published the 238 waivers that ED has granted to various provisions of No Child Left Behind — just in 2010.

238

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2014 is a Mega Election Year

There are 36 gubernatorial elections in 2014. 435 seats in the House and 33 seats in the Senate are up for election.

Light red: Term-limited or Retiring RepublicanDark red: Incumbent RepublicanLight blue: Term-limited or Retiring DemocratDark blue: Incumbent DemocratGreen: Incumbent IndependentLight Gray: no election

Education Insiders on Key Gubernatorial Elections and Education

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When asked to select the most important governors’ races to follow for education, Insiders overwhelmingly pick Florida, followed by New York, Texas, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Georgia.

Question: Which are the most important governors’ races to follow for education? PLEASE PICK FIVE.

IdahoKansasMaine

Rhode IslandSouth Carolina

IllinoisNew MexicoConnecticut

MarylandMinnesota

ArizonaCaliforniaColorado

MassachusettsTennesseeWisconsin

GeorgiaMichigan

OhioPennsylvania

TexasNew York

Florida

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Races to Watch

The State of the Common Core Assessment Consortia

8Source: Education Week, January 31, 2014

In 2013 and early 2014, six states withdrew from SBAC and/or PARCC.

Question: Do you expect more states to drop out of the Common Core Assessment Consortia in 2014?

More States Dropping out of the Common Core Assessment Consortia This Year?

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20140%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%90%

10%

Will More States Drop Out?

YesNo

As of Fall 2013, almost all Insiders believe that more states will drop out of the PARCC and SBAC assessment consortia in 2014.

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Question: Who has the momentum on the Common Core (and related assessments) right now - proponents or opponents?

Common Core and Assessments – Proponents vs. Opponents

39%

61%

Who has the momentum right now - pro-ponents or opponents?

ProponentsOponents

In Fall 2013, a majority of Insiders said that opponents have the momentum on the Common Core and related assessments.

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