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www.riskmetrics.com 1
Toward A Bottom-Up Approach in Assessing Sovereign Default Risk
NYU Stern Alumni Conference
London
June 03, 2011
www.riskmetrics.com 2
June 01, 2007 – May 6, 2011
Source: Citigroup Yieldbook Index Data
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
6/1/2007
7/13/2007
8/24/2007
10/5/2007
11/16/2007
12/31/2007
2/12/2008
3/25/2008
5/6/2008
6/17/2008
7/29/2008
9/9/2008
10/21/2008
12/2/2008
1/15/2009
2/26/2009
4/9/2009
5/21/2009
7/2/2009
8/13/2009
9/24/2009
11/5/2009
12/17/2009
2/1/2010
3/15/2010
4/26/2010
6/7/2010
7/19/2010
8/30/2010
10/11/2010
11/22/2010
1/3/2011
2/14/2011
3/28/2011
6/12/07 (260bp)
4/26/10 (442bp)
05/06/11 (408bp)
12/16/08 (2,046bp)
YTM Spread Between High Yield Markets & 10 Year Treasury Notes
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Major Risks Going Forward (For 2011)
Real Economy – Primarily U.S. (Double-Dip?): Impact on Default Rates & Credit Availability
Sovereign Debt Crisis – Europe
Contagion Between Markets – Debt and Equity
Maturity Schedule On Private and Public Debt
Inflation and Rise in Interest Rates
Municipal Bond Market Troubles
Uncertainties (non-quantifiable)
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Sovereign Ratings Actions2009 - Present
GreeceRa
ting
s
A1 A2 A3
Ba1B1
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PortugalRa
ting
s
Aa2A1 A3
Baa1
Sovereign Ratings Actions2009 - Present
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IrelandRa
ting
s
AAA Aa2
Baa1Baa3
Aa1
Sovereign Ratings Actions2009 - Present
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SpainRa
ting
s
AAA
Aa2
Aa1
Sovereign Ratings Actions2009 - Present
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(Z-Metrics PD Estimates and Implied PDs from CDS Spreads)
*Assuming a 40% recovery rate (R); based on the median CDS spread (s). PD Computed as 1-e(-5*s/(1-R))
Sources: RiskMetrics Group (MSCI), Markit, Compustat.
Z-Metrics PD Esimates: Five-Year Public Model
ListedCompanie
sY/E 2010
Median PDY/E 2009
Median PDY/E 2008
Median PD
Five-Year Implied PDFrom CDS Spread*
Country 2010 2009 2008
Netherlands 85 3.56% 3.33% 5.62% 2.03% 2.83% 6.06%
U.S.A. 2226 3.65% 3.93% 6.97% 3.79% 3.28% 4.47%
Sweden 245 3.71% 5.31% 6.74% 2.25% 4.60% 6.33%
Ireland 29 3.72% 6.45% 7.46% 41.44% 12.20% 17.00%
Belgium 69 3.85% 5.90% 5.89% 11.12% 4.58% 5.53%
U.K. 507 4.28% 3.62% 5.75% 4.73% 6.52% 8.13%
France 351 4.36% 5.51% 7.22% 4.51% 3.75% 4.05%
Germany 348 4.63% 5.54% 7.34% 2.50% 2.67% 3.66%
Italy 174 7.29% 7.99% 10.51% 9.16% 8.69% 11.20%
Spain 91 7.39% 6.44% 7.39% 14.80% 9.39% 8.07%
Portugal 33 10.67% 9.36% 12.07% 41.00% 10.90% 7.39%
Greece 93 15.28% 10.60% 11.57% 70.66% 24.10% 13.22%
Financial Health of the Corporate, Non-Financial Sector: Selected European Countries and U.S.A. in 2008-2010
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Weighted Average Median 5-Year PD for Listed Non-Financial1
and Banking Firms2 (Europe & US): 2009
1 Based on Z-Metrics Default Probability Model.2 Based on Altman-Rijken Model (Preliminary)
Non-Financial Firms Banking Firms
Country PD (%) Weight PD (%) WeightWeighted Average
(%)
Rank
CDS Spread PD (%)
Rank
Netherlands 3.33 0.968 18.8 0.032 3.82 1 2.83 2
U.K. 3.62 0.965 20.4 0.035 4.21 2 6.52 7
U.S.A. 3.93 0.821 16.9 0.179 6.25 5 3.28 3
France 5.51 0.931 19.2 0.069 6.45 7 3.75 4
Germany 5.54 0.938 15.1 0.062 6.13 4 2.67 1
Sweden 5.31 0.984 12.8 0.016 5.43 3 4.60 6
Ireland 6.45 0.848 53.5 0.152 13.60 12 12.20 11
Italy 7.99 0.876 18.1 0.124 9.24 9 8.69 8
Belgium 5.90 0.957 12.4 0.043 6.18 6 4.58 5
Spain 6.44 0.882 11.7 0.118 7.06 8 9.39 9
Portugal 9.36 0.857 16.2 0.143 10.34 10 10.90 10
Greece 10.60 0.868 24.9 0.132 12.49 11 24.10 12
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Weighted Average Median 5-Year PD for Listed Non-Financial1 and Banking Firms2 (Europe & US): 2010
1 Based on Z-Metrics Default Probability Model.2 Based on Altman-Rijken Model (Preliminary)* PD based on CDS Spread as of 4/26/2011
Non-Financial Firms Banking Firms
Country PD (%) Weight PD (%) WeightWeighted
Average (%)Ran
k
CDS Spread PD
(%)*Rank
Netherlands
3.56 0.977 11.1 0.023 3.73 1 2.03 1
U.K. 4.28 0.977 15.5 0.023 4.54 5 4.73 6
U.S.A. 3.65 0.837 13.8 0.163 5.30 7 3.79 4
France 4.36 0.986 14.0 0.014 4.49 4 4.51 5
Germany 4.63 0.983 13.1 0.017 4.77 6 2.50 3
Sweden 3.71 0.984 17.3 0.016 3.93 2 2.25 2
Ireland 3.72 0.906 77.6 0.094 10.65 10 41.44 11
Italy 7.29 0.906 20.0 0.094 8.48 9 9.16 7
Belgium 3.85 0.972 12.4 0.028 4.21 3 11.12 8
Spain 7.39 0.948 10.9 0.052 7.57 8 14.80 9
Portugal 10.67 0.971 12.1 0.029 10.71 11 41.00 10
Greece 15.28 0.921 30.1 0.079 16.45 12 70.66 12
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Five Year Implied Probabilities of Default (PD) From Capital Market CDS Spreads*Greece, Jan. 2009 – Apr. 2011
*Assumes 40% Recovery Rate.Source: Markit
11
01020304050607080
01-J
AN
-09
06-F
EB-0
916
-MA
R-09
21-A
PR-0
927
-MA
Y-09
02-J
UL-
0907
-AU
G-0
914
-SEP
-09
20-O
CT-0
925
-NO
V-09
31-D
EC-0
905
-FEB
-10
15-M
AR-
1020
-APR
-10
26-M
AY-
1001
-JU
L-10
06-A
UG
-10
13-S
EP-1
019
-OCT
-10
24-N
OV-
1030
-DEC
-10
04-F
EB-1
114
-MA
R-11
19-A
PR-1
1
Def
ault
Pro
babi
lity
(As
%)
Greece
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Five Year Implied Probabilities of Default (PD) From Capital Market CDS Spreads*Portugal, Jan. 2009 – Apr. 2011
*Assumes 40% Recovery Rate.Source: Markit 12
05
1015202530354045
01-J
AN
-09
06-F
EB-0
916
-MA
R-09
21-A
PR-0
927
-MA
Y-09
02-J
UL-
0907
-AU
G-0
914
-SEP
-09
20-O
CT-0
925
-NO
V-09
31-D
EC-0
905
-FEB
-10
15-M
AR-
1020
-APR
-10
26-M
AY-
1001
-JU
L-10
06-A
UG
-10
13-S
EP-1
019
-OCT
-10
24-N
OV-
1030
-DEC
-10
04-F
EB-1
114
-MA
R-11
19-A
PR-1
1
Def
ault
Pro
babi
lity
(As
%)
Portugal
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Recent Five-Year Probability of Default (PD) Implied From Capital Market CDS Spreads
Sources: Author Calculations from MSCI Group, Compustat Data
Country
Five Year Implied
PD from Capital
Market CDS
Spreads
(12/15/10)
Five Year Implied
PD from Capital
Market CDS
Spreads
(04/26/11)
Netherlands 3.66% 2.03%
United Kingdom 4.68% 4.73%
USA 2.27% 3.79%
France 6.65% 4.51%
Germany 3.19% 2.50%
Spain 19.45% 14.80%
Ireland 33.67% 41.44%
Italy 11.63% 9.16%
Portugal 26.40% 41.00%
Greece 51.79% 70.66%
(December 15, 2010 & April 26, 2011 Results)