www.coneval.gob.mx a methodology for the measurement of multidimensional poverty in mexico august,...
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www.coneval.gob.mx
A methodology for the measurement of
multidimensional poverty in Mexico
August, 2010
CONEVAL
Social Development
Law(2004)
Evaluation of Social Development Policy
Multidimensional Poverty Measurement
CONEVAL
CONEVAL• Public institution • Academic researchers • Technical autonomy
BUILDING THE METHODOLOGY
Why?
• It is a mandate of the Social Development Law
• The Law stablishes the main characteristics poverty measurement should comply:– To make visible the link between social programs &
the measurement of poverty, for public policy purposes.
– It should be defined both in the space of social rights and economic wellbeing.
– It includes eight dimensions: income, educational gap, access to health services, access to social security, quality of living spaces, housing access to basic services, access to food and the degree of social cohesion.
– Measurement should be made for the whole country, states (2 years) and municipalities (5 years).
Social Rights
Education
Health
Social security Food
Housing
Rights to social development
“..to guarantee the full exercise of the social rights set forth in the Political Constitution of the United Mexican States,
ensuring access to social development to the population as a whole ”
• The Law was approved unanimously by the Chambers of Deputies
and Senators
• This Law can be seen as the social consensus Mexico has achieved through Congress
Adventages of the social rights approach
• It aligns poverty measurement with the normative regulations of the Mexican goverment.
• It solves satisfactorilly problems of weights and thresholds:– Since human rights are indivisible &
interdependent, they all have the same relative importance. That´s why all indicators of social deprivation have the same weight.
– The Mexican regulation sets thresholds for several dimensions.
2006 2007 2008 2009
Datadelivery
ProcessDiscussions, criteria & design of data sources
Five Specific
consultations
Consultationwith
experts
Consultationabout
indicators, thresholds,
questions with public inst.
SurveyDesign
National and
international seminars
Building the methodology
DataCollection
Presentation(December)
Discussions of
proposalsFinal
discussions & results of
studies
• Bourguignon,Thorbecke, Kakwani, Lustig,Skoufias, Walton, Khander, Reddy, Feres, López-Calva, … among others.
• Julio Boltvinik• Satya Chakravarty• James Foster, Sabine
Alkire• David Gordon• Rubén Hernández and
Humberto Soto
MULTIDIMENSIONAL POVERTY
Methodological approach
PovertyMeasureme
nt
Social Rights Economic
Wellbeing
• Constitutional guarantees
• Poverty associated with social deprivation
• Economic policy and income have an impact on social development
Degree of social cohesion
Territorial
What are the main features of the new methodology?
Social RightsDeprivations
Mexican Population
Wellb
ein
gIn
com
e
Current income per capita
• Educational gap
•A to Health
•A to Social Security
•Housing
• Basic services
•A to Food
03 2 1456
Social RightsDeprivations
Main features(simple to understand)
EWL
Population with social deprivationsEconomic wellbeing line
WithoutDeprivations
035 24 16
MULTIDIMENSIONAL POOR
Vulnerable people by
social deprivation
s
Vulnerable people by
income
Population without
deprivations and with
an adequate level of
economic wellbeing
Public policy
Social RightsDeprivations
Aggregation: the headcount ratio
EWL
Sin
035 24 16
H=qn_
Social RightsDeprivations
Aggregation: Depth & intensity of poverty
EWL
Sin
035 24 16
1.35.7
Average number
of deprivation
s
MODERATE POVERTY
Social RightsDeprivations
Wellb
ein
gIn
com
e
Vulnerable people by
social deprivation
s
Total population 2008 (106,680,526)
33.0%35.2 millions
2.0 deprivations on
average
03 2 1456
EXTREME POVERTY
Source: estimates of the CONEVAL based on the MCS-ENIGH 2008.
Vulnerable people by
income 4.5 % 4.8 millions
18.3%19.5 millions
MULTIDIMENSIONALPOVERTY
44.2%47.2 millions2.7 deprivations on average
Population without deprivations and with an adequate level of economic wellbeing
Indigenous and non-indigenous populationPercentage of population in multidimensional poverty
depending on whether they speak an indigenous language or not
Source: estimates of the CONEVAL based on the MCS-ENIGH 2008.
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
National Non-indigenous Indigenous
44.2 42.0
75.7
33.0 33.9
20.0 4.5
4.7
1.2 18.3 19.4
3.1
Without deprivations, adequatelevel of wellbeing
Vulnerable by income
Vulnerable by social deprivation
Multidimensional poverty
Children, elderly 2008
Percentage of population in multidimensional poverty by age group
Source: estimates of the CONEVAL based on the MCS-ENIGH 2008.
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
National Children Adults Elderly
44.2 53.3
38.4 44.5
33.0
28.8
35.6 34.0
4.5 4.6
4.4 4.3
18.3 13.3
21.6 17.2
Without deprivations, adequatelevel of wellbeing
Vulnerable by income
Vulnerable by social deprivation
Multidimensional poverty
CHIAPAS
Multidimensional poverty by state
RanksTotal
of States
Source: estimates of the CONEVAL based on the MCS-ENIGH 2008.
Percentage of population with social deprivations. Mexico, 2008
Social deprivation Percentage
Access to social security 64.7
Access to health services 40.7
Educational gap 21.7
Access to food 21.6
Housing access to basic services 18.9
Quality of living spaces 17.5
Source: estimates of the CONEVAL based on the MCS-ENIGH 2008.
EXTREME MULTIDIMENSIONAL POVERTY
Moderate multidimensional
poverty
Social RightsDeprivations
EWL
EXTREME multidimensional
poverty
Minimum wellbeing line
03
Vulnerable people by
social deprivation
s
Vulnerable people by
income
5 24 16
Population without
deprivations and
adequate level of
economic wellbeing
MWL Public policy
Poverty identification
Indigenous and non-indigenous population
Percentage of population in multidimensional poverty depending on whether they speak an indigenous language or
not
National
Non-indigenous Indigenous
Without deprivations, adequate level of wellbeing
Vulnerable by income
Vulnerable by social deprivation
Moderate poverty
Extreme poverty
Source: estimates of the CONEVAL based on the MCS-ENIGH 2008.
44.2 42.0
75.7
RanksTotal
of States
CHIAPAS
Multidimensional poverty by state
Source: estimates of the CONEVAL based on the MCS-ENIGH 2008.
USING THE METHODOLOGY FOR PUBLIC POLICY
Social RightsDeprivations
What policies should be carried out?
EWL
Sin
035 24 16
MWL
Economic Policies:•Economic growth•Job creation
Social RightsDeprivations
What policies should be carried out?
EWL
Sin
035 24 16
MWL
Social Policies:•Health•Education•Housing
Social RightsDeprivations
What policies should be carried out?
EWL
Sin
035 24 16
MWL
Targeted policies
•Social Programs for the population in poverty
Social RightsDeprivations
What policies should be carried out?
EWL
Sin
035 24 16
MWL
Universal policies•Social Security•Education for all•Access to health services•Economic growth
Percentage of population in poverty if there were universal coverage of health services and social security
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
NationalUniversal coverage of health services
and social security
10.5
3.1
33.7
28.1
33.0
16.6
4.5
16.8
18.3
35.4
Without deprivations, adequate level of wellbeing
Vulnerable by income
Vulnerable by social deprivation
Moderate poverty
Extreme poverty
Source: estimates of the CONEVAL based on the MCS-ENIGH 2008.
Using the methodology
• Social programs are changing the way they identify their beneficiaries
• We’re starting to evaluate social programs (ex post and ex ante) using this approach.
• Other Ministries, besides the Ministry of Social Development, understand better their role in reducing poverty in Mexico
• The Strategy for poorer municipalities is using the methodology to target their programs
Using the methodology
• By linking social deprivations with poverty, policy recommendations are strengthened.
• There is a tendency to focus on cash transfers when poverty is measured only with income. Social policies for overcoming poverty should also pursue to universally guarantee social rights.
• It is now possible to evaluate the effect of social policy not only on income poverty but also on specific social deprivations.
Using the methodology
• Since income poverty is influenced by a number of circumstances that social policy cannot control (sometimes the country cannot control), relevant social achievements may remain undetected.
• Finally, a remarkable feature of the methodology is that it does not only identify poverty (priority), but also it identifies the whole population without access to social rights, which is a complete way of looking at public policy.
LPTI
ZAP
Institutionalization of the methodology
Communicate to public, governmental officials and academics
Income vs. Multidimensional Poverty. Parallel use.
Needs time to adjust and put into practice for social programs
Advice: people appropriates it
www.coneval.gob.mx
Targetting
Targetting with MDM
Starting 2012
Priority zones are chosen using community level data not yet with MDM
Programs are directed to these regions
THRESHOLDS
Legal criteria
Experts criteria
How to determine thresholds? Social rights
Consultation with specialists
Use of legal norms, if they exist
Public institutions
Health, Housing, Social Security, Education
Educational gap
Population aged 3-15
years
Population aged
16 years or older
She or he is not attending a formal educational center
• When someone was born before 1981 and lacks the mandatory basic education current at the time he or she should have completed it. Primary
• When someone was bornbefore 1982 and lacks the mandatory basic education current at the time she should have completed it. Secondary
How to determine thresholds of social deprivations?
When a person is not enrolled in or not entitled to receive medical services from:
Popular Insurance
A social security public institution
A private medical service
Acces to health services
How to determine thresholds of social deprivations?
Access to social
security
• If the worker does not receive medical services as a work benefit or through voluntary enrollment and a retirement investment plan
Direct access
Family nucleus
Other family nucleus and
voluntary enrollment
• If a person is not enrolled in an institution that provides medical services by voluntary enrollment.
• If the spouse,child, parent, -law of the head of household is not enrolled in an medical institution
If the person does not have a relative who has access to social security
If the person is not beneficiary of a social program of pensions for senior citizens
How to determine thresholds of social deprivations?
Quality of living spaces
When the material is cardboard sheets or residue material
Roofs
Walls
Floors
Overcrowding
When the material is mud or daub&wattle; reed, bamboo or palm; cardboard, metal or asbestos sheets; residue material
When the material of the floor is soil
When the ratio of people per room is greater than 2.5
How to determine thresholds of social deprivations?
Housing access to basic services
• When it is obtained from a well, river, lake, stream, or truck.
• When piped water is carried from another dwelling or gotten at a public faucet or hydrant
Water
Drainage
service
Electricity
• No drainage service.• When the drain is connected to
pipes leading to a river, lake, sea, ravine or crack
When there is no electricity
How to determine thresholds of social deprivations?
Food security
Food insecurity
Acess tofood
Deprivation due to lack of
access to food
Slight
Moderate
Severe
How to determine thresholds of social deprivations?
Food basket Non food basket
Minimum economic
wellbeing line
Changes on current consumption patterns
Calorics requirements & micronutrients
Rural & urban settings
Economic wellbeing
How to determine thresholds? Economic Wellbeing
Goods and services have an income
elasticity<1
Necessary goods & services
Rural & urban settings
SOCIAL COHESION
Social RightsDeprivations
EWL
Sin
035 24 16
MWL
Social Cohesion
We can have this type of society:
Social RightsDeprivations
Social dispersion: inequality, polarization
EWL
Sin
035 24 16
MWL
…or one like this one:
Gini Index
[0.48 - 0.50) 9
[0.50 - 0.56] 12
RangosTotal de
entidades
[0.42 - 0.48) 11
RanksTotal
of States
Source: estimates of the CONEVAL based on the MCS-ENIGH 2008.
GUIDELINES AND CRITERIA FOR
IDENTIFYING POVERTY
Guidelines and criteria (G&C) for identifying poverty
Mandatory application for public institutions
Social programs should consider the indicators of multidimensional
poverty
G&C should be incorporated in social programs and evaluation
Flexible G&C according to the programs final goals.
Not all the indicators must be used in identifying targeted population.
V.gr. Oportunidades
THANK YOU
Consejo Nacional de Evaluación de la Política de Desarrollo Social
(CONEVAL)
Boulevard Adolfo López Mateos No.160 Col. San Ángel Inn, Delegación Álvaro Obregón, C.P. 01060, México, D.F.
Contact information
www.coneval.gob.mx
Gonzalo Hernández LiconaExecutive Secretary
E-mail: [email protected]
EXAMPLES
Examples
Manual
worker
House
without tap
water
Income belo
w the wellbeing line
He just
completed primary
school
MODERATE POVERTY
Social RightsDeprivations
Wellb
ein
gIn
com
e
03 2 1456
EXTREME POVERTY
MULTIDIMENSIONALPOVERTY
Examples
She is 15 years
oldShe
quitted school to help
her family
She lives in a
house with one bedroom
for 8 people
She completed
the 1st year of
secondary school
and does not have
social security
Sometimes her family eats
once a day due to lack
of resource
s
POBREZA EXTREMA
POBREZA MODERADA
Social RightsDeprivations
Wellb
ein
gIn
com
e
03 2 1456
EXTREME POVERTY
Examples
Self-employed
Earns an
average of 2,400 dlls
monthly
He does not
have socia
l security
He will turn 62
years old
Social RightsDeprivations
Wellb
ein
gIn
com
e
Vulnerable by social
deprivation
03 2 1456
Examples
Her sales fell
She owns her
home which has all
services
She pays voluntary social security.
She finished
high school
For the last four months
her company
costs are
larger than her income
Vulnerable by income
Social RightsDeprivations
Wellb
ein
gIn
com
e
03 2 1456
SUPPORTINGSLIDES
Labor Poverty Trend Index (LPTI)1
First trimester 2005 – Second trimester 2010
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
2005 1t
2005 2t
2005 3t
2005 4t
2006 1t
2006 2t
2006 3t
2006 4t
2007 1t
2007 2t
2007 3t
2007 4t
2008 1t
2008 2t
2008 3t
2008 4t
2009 1t
2009 2t
2009 3t
2009 4t
2010 1t
2010 2t
Evolución del Índice de la Tendencia Laboral de la Pobreza (ENOE), nacionalPrimer trimestre 2005 al segundo trimestre 2010
Source: estimates of the CONEVAL based on the ENOE , INEGI.
1. Base: first trimester of 2005.
Percentage of population with social deprivations in Poor Municipalities (ZAP). Mexico, 2008 & 2009
Social deprivations in ZAP
2008 2009
Percentage
Access to health services
51.8 39.2
Educational gap 38.0 33.7
Access to food 34.2 36.9
Housing access to basic services
55.2 43.6
Quality of living spaces 43.7 37.3
Source: estimates of the CONEVAL based on MCS-ENIGH 2008 and Monitoreo de ZAP 2009 .
More than 50% of municipalities in Mexico are ZAP. In those municipalities live 16% of Mexican population.
Principles of human rights
Universal
Inalienable
Interdependent
Indivisible
Interrelated
Absolute
Inherent
Inviolable
Irreversible
Progressive
InterdependentUnfulfillment of any right affects
the others
IndivisibleAll rights have
equal status and cannot be
positioned in a hierarchical order
UniversalEverybody is
entitled to them