www . isl . org info @

isl.org

Inst

itu

t fü

r S

eeve

rkeh

rsw

irts

chaf

t u

nd

Lo

gis

tik

Inst

itu

te

of

Sh

ipp

ing

Eco

no

mic

s an

d

Lo

gis

tics

Estimating deepsea, shortseaand transhipment volumes

A data model for container traffic

through the European North Range ports

Sönke Maatsch, ISL

www . isl . org info @

isl.org

Inst

itu

t fü

r S

eeve

rkeh

rsw

irts

chaf

t u

nd

Lo

gis

tik

Inst

itu

te

of

Sh

ipp

ing

Eco

no

mic

s an

d

Lo

gis

tics

Content

1. Data sources for seaborne and hinterland container traffic

2. Decomposing the North Range ports’ seaborne traffic – ISL STM

3. Determining the hinterland distribution

4. Linking foreign trade with transport data – Global Insight EITM

5. Results from latest study for the Hamburg Port Authority (HPA)

6. Future development of the model

Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes18/04/23 2

www . isl . org info @

isl.org

Inst

itu

t fü

r S

eeve

rkeh

rsw

irts

chaf

t u

nd

Lo

gis

tik

Inst

itu

te

of

Sh

ipp

ing

Eco

no

mic

s an

d

Lo

gis

tics

1. Data sources

18/04/23 3

A B Trade by origin/destination (e.g. UN, national statistics)

B) Trade statistics

(B/Ls)

NR ports’seaborne traffic

transportstatistics

(transportstatistics)

NR ports’modal split

A) Transport statistics

Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes

Survey

Survey

Survey

www . isl . org info @

isl.org

Inst

itu

t fü

r S

eeve

rkeh

rsw

irts

chaf

t u

nd

Lo

gis

tik

Inst

itu

te

of

Sh

ipp

ing

Eco

no

mic

s an

d

Lo

gis

tics

2. Decomposing the North Range ports’ seaborne traffic

18/04/23 4

extra-European container traffic (→ EITM)

intra-European container traffic

ISL Shortsea Shipping Survey: survey among the most important shortsea operators

main question: transhipment shares for each relation

aim: estimating shortsea-land and transhipment traffic per relation(port-to-port or port-to-country level)

North Range ports’ seaborne traffic

Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes

www . isl . org info @

isl.org

Inst

itu

t fü

r S

eeve

rkeh

rsw

irts

chaf

t u

nd

Lo

gis

tik

Inst

itu

te

of

Sh

ipp

ing

Eco

no

mic

s an

d

Lo

gis

tics

2. Decomposing the North Range ports’ maritime traffic

04/18/23 5

Split of total traffic into shortsea-land and transhipment (NR ports 2005)

intra-European O/D

portport

seasea

land land

shortsea-land:

4.7 mill TEU

deepsea-land:

15.8 mill TEU

extra-European O/D

deepsea-transhipment

shortsea transhipment

shortsea-land

transhipment:

10.5 mill TEU

shortsea-transh.:

0.1 mill TEU

Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes

?total hinterland traffic: 20.5 mill TEU

www . isl . org info @

isl.org

Inst

itu

t fü

r S

eeve

rkeh

rsw

irts

chaf

t u

nd

Lo

gis

tik

Inst

itu

te

of

Sh

ipp

ing

Eco

no

mic

s an

d

Lo

gis

tics

3. Determining the hinterland distribution

Modal split statistics from the ports:

distribution of hinterland traffic by modes

for some ports: modal split by hinterland regions

Transport statistics:

distribution of hinterland traffic by regions for barge and rail

truck traffic: not available or only available for transport companies

registered in the respective country

Hinterland survey:

distribution of hinterland traffic by regions for truck

modal splits per region

expert interviews / plausibility checks

Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes18/04/23 6

Modal split and hinterland distribution

www . isl . org info @

isl.org

Inst

itu

t fü

r S

eeve

rkeh

rsw

irts

chaf

t u

nd

Lo

gis

tik

Inst

itu

te

of

Sh

ipp

ing

Eco

no

mic

s an

d

Lo

gis

tics

3. Determining the hinterland distribution

18/04/23 7

Split of total traffic into shortsea-land and transhipment (NR ports 2005)

intra-European O/D

portport

seasea

land land

shortsea-land:

4.7 mill TEU

deepsea-land:

15.8 mill TEU

extra-European O/D

deepsea-transhipment

shortsea transhipment

shortsea-land

transhipment:

10.5 mill TEU

shortsea-transh.:

0.1 mill TEU

Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes

total hinterland traffic: 20.5 mill TEU

?

www . isl . org info @

isl.org

Inst

itu

t fü

r S

eeve

rkeh

rsw

irts

chaf

t u

nd

Lo

gis

tik

Inst

itu

te

of

Sh

ipp

ing

Eco

no

mic

s an

d

Lo

gis

tics

Content

1. Data sources for seaborne and hinterland container traffic

2. Decomposing the North Range ports’ maritime traffic – ISL STM

3. Determining the hinterland distribution

4. Linking foreign trade with transport data – Global Insight EITM

5. Results from latest study for the Hamburg Port Authority (HPA)

6. Future development of the model

Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes18/04/23 8

www . isl . org info @

isl.org

Inst

itu

t fü

r S

eeve

rkeh

rsw

irts

chaf

t u

nd

Lo

gis

tik

Inst

itu

te

of

Sh

ipp

ing

Eco

no

mic

s an

d

Lo

gis

tics

4. Linking trade and transport data

Major challenges:

a. from value to volume (tonnes)

b. from tonnes to laden containers

c. inclusion of empties

d. estimation of transport chains

e. first vs. final destination (distribution centres)

Tools used for the North European Container Traffic Model:

Global Insight World Trade Service (WTS) for a. and b.

Imbalance analyses for c.

Global Insight European Inland Transportation Model (EITM) and

ISL Shortsea Traffic Model (STM) for d.

Hinterland survey for d. and e.

Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes18/04/23 9

Linking trade and transport data

www . isl . org info @

isl.org

Inst

itu

t fü

r S

eeve

rkeh

rsw

irts

chaf

t u

nd

Lo

gis

tik

Inst

itu

te

of

Sh

ipp

ing

Eco

no

mic

s an

d

Lo

gis

tics

4. Linking trade and transport data

Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes18/04/23 10

Estimation of transport chains

e.g. imports from North East Asia to Poland from WTS: 150.000 laden TEU

150

30

30

70 Hamburg

Rotterdam

Bremen/Bhv.

20 Antwerp

1

1Split by ports based on their market share on the respective relation and in hinterland regions

40 Transhipment

0 Barge

25 Truck*

5 Rail

2

2 Split by mode based on preceding estimations for each port

* Including containers transported to DCs near Hamburg and then on to Poland.

www . isl . org info @

isl.org

Inst

itu

t fü

r S

eeve

rkeh

rsw

irts

chaf

t u

nd

Lo

gis

tik

Inst

itu

te

of

Sh

ipp

ing

Eco

no

mic

s an

d

Lo

gis

tics

4. Linking trade and transport data

Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes18/04/23 11

Imbalance analysis for empty containers

Basis for estimation:

difference between export and import TEUs per hinterland region

difference between export and import TEUs per maritime relation

Adjustments:

differences between port of discharge and port of loading of containers

equalisations between certain maritime trade routes

Result: estimated transport chains for laden and empty containers

www . isl . org info @

isl.org

Inst

itu

t fü

r S

eeve

rkeh

rsw

irts

chaf

t u

nd

Lo

gis

tik

Inst

itu

te

of

Sh

ipp

ing

Eco

no

mic

s an

d

Lo

gis

tics

4. Linking trade and transport data

Applications

Market analyses

market shares of ports in hinterland regions

identification of potential new markets for ports

modal split analyses

Improved port traffic forecasting

estimated transport chains allow differentiated forecasts

impact of specific economic scenarios on the structure of a port’s cargo

traffic can be directly calculated

www . isl . org info @

isl.org

Inst

itu

t fü

r S

eeve

rkeh

rsw

irts

chaf

t u

nd

Lo

gis

tik

Inst

itu

te

of

Sh

ipp

ing

Eco

no

mic

s an

d

Lo

gis

tics

5. Latest study for the Hamburg Port Authority (HPA)

Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes18/04/23 13

Structure of cargo traffic for each North Range port

... market share per segment

Market segment

1000 TEU

share in %

1000 TEU

share in %

1000 TEU

share in %

1000 TEU

share in %

1000 TEU

share in %

1000 TEU

share in %

1000 TEU

share in %

Hinterland* 4403 21 1498 7 6627 32 5353 26 1312 6 1336 7 20530 100

deepsea-land 3852 24 1271 8 4727 30 4351 28 465 3 1145 7 15810 100

shortsea-land 551 12 228 5 1900 40 1003 21 847 18 192 4 4720 100

Transhipment 3692 35 2241 21 2601 25 1129 11 95 1 782 7 10541 100

Total 8095 26 3739 12 9228 30 6482 21 1408 5 2119 7 31071 100

* barge, rail and road

Total

North Range ports

Hamburg Bremen/Bhv. Rotterdam Antwerp Zeebrugge Le Havre

Market segment

1000 TEU

share in %

1000 TEU

share in %

1000 TEU

share in %

1000 TEU

share in %

1000 TEU

share in %

1000 TEU

share in %

1000 TEU

share in %

Hinterland* 4403 54 1498 40 6627 72 5353 83 1312 93 1336 63 20530 66

deepsea-land 3852 48 1271 34 4727 51 4351 67 465 33 1145 54 15810 51

shortsea-land 551 7 228 6 1900 21 1003 15 847 60 192 9 4720 15

Transhipment 3692 46 2241 60 2601 28 1129 17 95 7 782 37 10541 34

Total 8095 100 3739 100 9228 100 6482 100 1408 100 2119 100 31071 100

* barge, rail and road

North Range ports

Hamburg Bremen/Bhv. Rotterdam Antwerp Zeebrugge Le Havre Total

Source: ISL/Global Insight, Containerverkehrsmodell zur Bestimmung der Marktposition des Hafens Hamburg in europäischen Hinterland- und Transhipmentregionen, study for the Hamburg Port Authority, Bremen 2007

www . isl . org info @

isl.org

Inst

itu

t fü

r S

eeve

rkeh

rsw

irts

chaf

t u

nd

Lo

gis

tik

Inst

itu

te

of

Sh

ipp

ing

Eco

no

mic

s an

d

Lo

gis

tics

5. Latest study for the Hamburg Port Authority (HPA)

Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes18/04/23 14

Market shares by hinterland regions and modal split (ex.: Hamburg)

Source: ISL/Global Insight, Containerverkehrsmodell zur Bestimmung der Marktposition des Hafens Hamburg in europäischen Hinterland- und Transhipmentregionen, study for the Hamburg Port Authority, Bremen 2007

www . isl . org info @

isl.org

Inst

itu

t fü

r S

eeve

rkeh

rsw

irts

chaf

t u

nd

Lo

gis

tik

Inst

itu

te

of

Sh

ipp

ing

Eco

no

mic

s an

d

Lo

gis

tics

6. Planned developments

Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes18/04/23 15

further projects for North Range ports to improve robustness

building time series

expansion of the scope to the whole continental Europe

(i.e. including Mediterranean)

large-scale survey among importing and exporting companies in

continental Europe

standardizing the interface to Global Insight’s World Trade Service,

thus permitting regularly updated port forecasts

www . isl . org info @

isl.org

Inst

itu

t fü

r S

eeve

rkeh

rsw

irts

chaf

t u

nd

Lo

gis

tik

Inst

itu

te

of

Sh

ipp

ing

Eco

no

mic

s an

d

Lo

gis

tics

04/18/23 16

Thank you for your attention!

Institut für Seeverkehrswirtschaft und LogistikInstitute of Shipping Economics and Logistics

Sönke Maatsch

Tel. +49/4 21/2 20 96-73maatsch@isl.org

Universitätsallee GW1 Block A28359 BremenGermanyFax +49/4 21/2 20 96-77

www.isl.org

Economist

Maritime Economics and Transport

Estimating deepsea, shortsea, and transhipment volumes