wwosc 2014 – montreal 16-21/8/2014 attenuating disruptive effects of bad weather on air travel –...

WWOSC 2014 – Montreal 16-21/8/2014

Attenuating disruptive effects of bad weather on air travel –

minimizing numbers of stranded travellers

Adriaan Perrels1, Claus Doll2, Mitsakis Evangelos3, Atte Harjanne1, David Jaroszewski4, Michael Kreuz5, Kaisu Loikkanen6, Iraklis Stamos3,

Anne Temme5, Anu Tuominen6,

•Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Helsinki, Finland; •Fraunhofer Institute for Systems Innovation Research, Karlsruhe, Germany; •Hellenic Institute for Transport (CERTH-HIT), Thessaloniki, Greece; •University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK; •German Aerospace Centre (DLR), Braunschweig, Germany; •Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT), Espoo & Tampere, Finland

WWOSC 2014 Montreal 16-21/8/2014

Background• EU: Increasing number of studies, institutional changes,

technology development for hazard management – spurred by climate change adaptation policies and by critical infrastructure resilience policies

• MOWE-IT study (Management of weather events in the transport

system) – 10/2012 – 9/2014, funded in FP7 programme:

– aims at attenuation of disruptions in transport systems caused by adverse weather conditions

– both attention for predictability and warning times and for preparedness in operations (information, reallocating flows)

– all motorized modes, but emphasis on air travel


MOWE-IT output• Guidebooks by mode (air, rail, inland waterways, road)• Special attention for role of cross-modality• Case studies for selected nodes and corridors• Short term (quick) policy perspectives• Long term policy (strategic) perspectives• Visualization tool• Research agenda• 3 concluding ’regional conferences’

– London 4/5-9; Berlin 8/9-9; Thessaloniki 15/16-9

• For more information: www.mowe-it.eu


Disruptions and the role of weather

Weather is significant but by no means only source of disruptions in air transport

– Labour conflicts– Major ’land side’ transport system obstructions (which can be

weather related)– Large travel peaks (holiday periods) + traveller behaviour– Financial failures of air lines– Grounding of airplane models for technical reasons– Volcanic eruptions– Terrorist threats

– Cascading effects within air travel and beyond, including effects of poor (public) communication

For traveller and manager only counts the compound effect


AFTM delays and the role of weather

Source: MOWE-IT Guide Book Air Transport


Delayed flights and delays caused by weather in Europe 1997-2012

Source: MOWE-IT Deliverable 8.2 Long term policy options (forthcoming)

R261/2004


Share of weather as cause of delay by month in 2012 in Europe

Source: MOWE-IT Deliverable 8.2 Long term policy options (forthcoming)


Region Excessively delayed (over >45 min.)

Cancelled Diverted Total

Europe 5,8 % 1,21 % 0,02 % 7,03 %

U.S. 8,8 % 1,58 % 0,17 % 10,54 %

Asia 16,56 % 1,9 % 0,10 % 18,56 %

Weather effect more significant in the US


Inventory of extreme effects and climate change


Transport impact exploration tool

Source: MOWE-IT Deliverable 2.1 Cross modal substitutability in European transport system


• Increase weather event warning time (convective storms)

• Further improve forecast accuracy of winter storm trails

• Combine aviation weather and land transport weather forecasts for integrated disruption risk assessment of airports

• Review airport hubs on the potentials regarding:– Optimally exploiting seat capacity of remaining flights

• average unused seat capacity varies from 12% (July) to 26% (February)

– Diverting air traffic to fairly nearby airports

– Substitution to high speed & intercity train

– Generic evacuation capacity in public transport

• Develop disruption information apps etc. for travellers, but avoid to mainly displace problem to other system / node

Attenuating disruptions 1


Assessment of attenuation potential


Attenuating disruptions 2

Diversion options for Frankfurt airport


Attenuating disruptions 3: rail – air links

City Airport Country Dedicated

link from city to airport

Metro link from city to

airport

Connections to regional

trains

High speed train

connections at airport

High speed connections available in

city London Heathrow United Kingdom ✓ ✓

✓

Paris Charles de Gaulle France

✓

✓ ✓ Frankfurt Frankfurt Germany

✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

Amsterdam Schiphol Netherlands

✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Istanbul Ataturk Turkey

✓

Madrid Barajas Spain

✓

✓ Munich Munich Airport Germany ✓

✓

Rome Fiumicino Italy ✓ ✓

✓ London Gatwick United Kingdom

✓

✓

Barcelona El Prat Spain

✓

✓ Moscow Domodedovo Russia

✓

✓

Moscow Sheremetyevo Russia

✓ Paris Paris-Orly France

✓

✓

Antalya Antalya Turkey Zurich Zurich Airport Switzerland

✓ ✓

✓ Copenhagen Copenhagen Airport Denmark

✓ ✓

Oslo Oslo Gardermoen International Norway ✓ ✓ ✓ Palma Palma de Mallorca Airport Spain

Vienna Vienna International Austria ✓ ✓

✓ Dusseldorf Dusseldorf International Germany ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓


Attenuating disruptions 4 – estimated spare rail capacity Schiphol Airport to major cities

spare rail capacity (X% of 16000)


• Innovation in weather service products (and underlying weather modelling)

• Customer protection policy– So far this was focal area in EU approach

• Costs: 1~1.5 billion Euro cf. costs of disruptions: 0.8 ~ 1.3 billion Euro

• Costs of disruptions at best reduced by 10% (if at all)

• Still some improvements impending

– It created minimum standards now other measures needed, e.g.

• Better cooperation between actors – information sharing– benefit sharing (resulting from efforts)

• New ways to value spare capacity (redundancy)– changes in CBA of infrastructure capacity needed; – changes in charging for such capacity needed

Supporting policies for disruption reduction


Preliminary conclusions• Weather is an important but often not single source of

disruption of transport systems– For risk management support integrated weather and

vulnerability analysis necessary– Even for airports joint aviation and land side travel weather

merits to analyse jointly on disruption risks

• For assessment of substitute capacity the simultaneity of weather impacts on different transport systems should be accounted for

• Cross-modal solutions can provide some relief in case of (some types of) disruptions for selected airports, but it is no panacea – e.g. (extended) rush hours problematic


Preliminary conclusions• Effective attenuation of disruption effects requires more

far reaching forms of information sharing, better interactive information tools for travelers, and well prepared communication protocols

• Consumer protection rights seem to have produced little incentive to reduce disruption risk (over and above other incentives)

• In current economic appraisal of transport infrastructure the benefits of spare capacity w.r.t. disruptions are inadequately taken into account, if at all


THANK YOU

Contact information

• ERIK PALMÉNIN AUKIO 1

00560 HELSINKI

adriaan.perrels(at)fmi.fi

mobile: +358 50 5838575

http://www.fmi.fi/en/

wwosc 2014 – montreal 16-21/8/2014 attenuating disruptive effects of bad weather on air travel –...

Documents

role of weather weather

air travel slide

finland slide

role of weather source

weather effect

us slide

share of weather

guide book air transport