World’s Most Promising Cotton Yield Technologies & their Potential to Raise

Production CO

TT

ON

• agronomy• farmer production education• investment capital• precision application• no-till (with herbicide tolerance)

• genetic improvement• edaphic stress• metabolic efficiency• seed resource reallocation• plant architecture• hybridization

World’s most promising yield technologies

Yield Technologies

In addition to basic farming expertise, any technology advancement requires adjustments to entire production system.

e.g. Introduction of high priced Bt-cotton seed to eastern China: -lower seeding rates-disease susceptible foreign

variety -yield boost caused K

deficiencies-2° pests no longer controlled

Farmer Production Education

Investment Capital

Supplemental irrigation raises Water Use Efficiency in rainfed cotton but requires investment in water delivery systems

1 2 3

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500Drip IrrigatedTennessee Rainfed

Fib

er

Yie

ld (

lbs/

acr

e)

Optimum agronomic management:1970’s farm scale recipe1990’s field scale2000’s soil type scale2010’s 10 m2 scale

Precision Application

0-25 26-50

51-75

76-100

101-125

126-150

151-175

176-200

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

c

bc bc

aab

bc

cd

d

total nitrogen

fiber

yie

ld

apply inputs as needed

minimize stress and evaporation

preserve rainfall

& soil

• agronomy• farmer education• investment capital• precision application• no-till (with herbicide tolerance)

• genetic improvement• edaphic stress• metabolic efficiency• seed resource reallocation• plant architecture• hybridization

World’s most promising yield technologies

Yield Technologies

Highly diverse Gossypium diploids wild plants

Genetic Diversity Lost

4 plants crossed making 2 Gossypium tetraplids

Man domesticated the long fiber mutants

Breeding further narrowed germplasm

????

????

Plants are immobile so evolved to tolerate stress.

DNA tools allow breeding with wild cotton for soil borne stresses:- nematodes- diseases- drought

Genetic Diversity Regained

????

????

Plants are immobile so evolved to tolerate stress.

DNA tools allow breeding with wild cotton for soil borne stress:nematodes,diseases,drought

Sequenced Cotton Genome

In addition to the multiple breeding tools, we could reach back in time to the rapid evolution of the fiber and make it better the 2nd time around.

We have the tools to breed seed with MORE fiber & oil, LESS protein

Seed Resource Allocation

Fiber Oil Protein0

0.51

1.52

2.53

3.5 FertilizerSugar

lbs

of in

put/

lb o

f pro

duct

FM 958 a.k.a.Sicot 41

Biotech adopters benefit from all the ancillary benefits of a robust, professional local seed industry PLUS the trait.

Professional Seed Industry

1975

1985

1995

2005

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

China Linear (China)

India Linear (India)

USA Linear (USA)

Brazil Linear (Brazil)

Australia Linear (Australia)

Argentina Linear (Argentina)

Mexico Linear (Mexico)

Colombia Linear (Colombia)

South Africa Linear (South Africa)

1975

1985

1995

2005

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Pakistan Linear (Pakistan)

Uzbekistan Linear (Uzbekistan)

Turkey Linear (Turkey)

Turkminstan Linear (Turkminstan)

Greece Linear (Greece)

Syria Linear (Syria)

Burkina Linear (Burkina)

Tanzania Linear (Tanzania)

Tajikistan Linear (Tajikistan)

Adapted from David Zilberman, U.C. Berkeley

Fib

er Y

ield

(kg

/he

ctar

e)F

iber

Yie

ld (

kg/h

ect

are)

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100

200

400

600

800

1000

1200Adopters

Linear (Adopters)

• China• India• USA• Africa

& their potential to raise production

Raise Production

Climate Disruption creates uncertainty as to how well India benefits from yield technology.

Seed has had a huge impact: - Bt-cotton insect control- locally adapted hybrids

Anticipate future seed benefits:- no-till facilitated by glyphosate herbicide tolerance.- higher stand density facilitated by lower cost hybrid seed production and apomixis hybrids

India

1950 1980 20100

1

2

3

ΔCO2 /year

CO

2

PP

M

Water supply limitations are not solved with drought tolerance. Western China adopting USA production system. Eastern China likely not, maybe no-till with Herbicide Tolerance

China

Nature (2010) 467:43-51

As the first adopter of USA-centric innovations we will benefit greatly, IF their development is funded.

Supplemental irrigation in the rainbelt is expanding rapidly but West Texas water supply is uncertain.

USA

Africa

The modal fertilizer rate in Africa is Zero!

Slight improvement in input resources, infrastructure and education would have a dramatic impact on African cotton yields.

Optimistic that cotton yield gains can satisfy some of the expanding global demand for textile fiber.