world wheat supply and demand situation · • russian exports to drop to 36.5 mmt, 8% above...
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World Wheat Supply and
Demand SituationMay 2018
Major data source: USDA World Agricultural Supply andDemand Estimates released May 10, 2018. Projections will change over thecourse of the year depending on weather and other developments.
Highlights of USDA’s 2018/19 Supply and Demand Estimates
1. 2018/19 global wheat production to fall for first time in 5 years• Global supplies estimate to grow to 1018 MMT; up slightly from the 2017/18 and a new record• Wheat production in Russia to fall to 72.0 MMT, down 15% year over year, if realized • U.S. wheat production estimated at 49.6 MMT, 5% above 2017/18, if realized
2. Consumption forecast at a record 754 MMT, 5% above the 5-year average• Chinese domestic consumption to total 120 MMT, 3% above the 5-year average, if realized• U.S. domestic consumption to grow 5% year over year to 31.2 MMT
3. World wheat trade projected at a record 188 MMT, 8% above the 5-year average
• Russian exports to drop to 36.5 MMT, 8% above 2017/18 , still 36% above the 5-year average• Exports from the EU to climb 21% year over year to 29.0 MMT• U.S. 2018/19 exports to increase to 25.2 MMT, down 2% from the 2017/18 estimate of 24.8 MMT
4. World beginning stocks estimated at record 270 MMT, up 6% year over year• Beginning stocks in the EU forecast at 13.1 MMT, 9% above the 5-year average• U.S. beginning stocks will fall to an estimated 29.1 MMT, 9% below 2017/18 levels
5. Global ending stocks projected at 264 MMT, 2% below the record 2017/18 level, if realized• Estimated Chinese ending stocks of 139 MMT account for 52% of global ending stocks, 45% greater
than the 5-year average• Exporter ending stocks forecast at 65.8 MMT, down 13% year over year• Ending stocks in importing countries to fall to 59.9 MMT, 20% below the 5-year average of 75.1 MMT
6. U.S. farm gate average price forecast 6% higher in 2018/19• Projected average range: $4.50 to $5.50/bushel ($165-$202/MT)*
*Average U.S. farm gate price, marketing year weighted average
Highlights of USDA’s 2018/19 Supply and Demand Estimates
World Production and Use
758 74
8
744754
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
MM
T
Production Use
Supplies in Top Exporting Countries*
*Includes U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, EU-27, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan
64 70 68
403 395361
467 467430
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
MM
T
Beginning Stocks Production
World Wheat Supply and Demand
16/17 17//18 18/19MMT
SUPPLY: Beginning Stocks 244 256 270Production 750 758 748Supply Total 995 1014 1018
TRADE: Exports/Imports 183 182 188
DEMAND Food & Seed 592 598 608Feed & Residual 147 145 146Use Total 739 744 754
ENDING STOCKS: 256 270 264
Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU-27. Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
World Beginning Stocks
40 43 50 52 54 5215 16 21 17 21 21
69 7170 78 69 70
5465
7697 111 127
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
MM
T
Historical Five Major Exporters Black Sea Others China
Global Stocks*-to-Use Ratio
*Ending stocks
26
34 3536 35
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Perc
ent
Global Stocks*-to-Use Ratio w/o China
*Ending stocks
1918
27
2224 24
23 23
20
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Perc
ent
World Ending Stocks
Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU-27.Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
52 54 52
21 21 14
72 6860
111 127139
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
MM
T
Historical 5 Majors Black Sea Others China
World Ending Stocks by Position(million metric tons)
Exporters, 65.8
Importers, 59.9
China, 139
Global Ending Stocks and Price
43 52 46
1621
14
76136
197204
212
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
90/91 94/95 98/99 02/03 06/07 10/11 14/15 18/19
$US/
MT
MM
T
Historical 5 Majors Black Sea Rest of World HRW price
• Major Exporters• Import Demand• U.S. Situation by Class• Outlook
Canada Situation
5.2 6.8 5.3
32.130.0 32.5
20.2
23.0 23.5
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Canada Ending Stocks
5.1
10.4
5.2
6.8
5.3 5.2
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
MM
T
Australia Situation
4.7 3.9 4.4 4.2
30.4
21.5 24.022.6
15.017.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Australia Ending Stocks
5.1
7.1
4.7 4.7
3.94.4 4.2 4.2
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
MM
T
Argentina Situation
4.8
0.8 0.3 0.3
11.3
18.418.0
19.5
13.8 12.814.2
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Argentina Ending Stocks
0.70.3
2.5
4.8
0.8
0.3 0.3 0.30.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
MM
T
EU-27 Situation
12.7 15.6 10.9 13.1
160145 152 150
27.3 24.0
29.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
EU-27 Ending Stocks
16.615.6
10.9
13.1
10.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
MM
T
Russia Situation
6.3 5.6 10.8 11.7
61 73
8572
27.8
39.536.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Russia Ending Stocks
10.9
5.6
10.811.7
5.7
0
5
10
15
20
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
MM
T
Black Sea Region Situation
Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are the most important wheat producers in the Black Sea Region.
20.7 16.8 21.2 21.2
118 130142
127
54.466.3 62.6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Black Sea Exports
22.8 25.5 27.8
39.5 36.5
11.3
17.418.1
17.217.0
5.5
7.67.4
8.58.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
MM
T
Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan
Black Sea Ending Stocks
23.3
20.7
16.8
21.1
25.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
MM
T
U.S. Situation
26.6 32.1 29.1
62.8 47.4 49.6
28.724.8 25.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
MM
T
U.S. Wheat Situation
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic Use
U.S. Ending Stocks
19.520.5
26.6
32.1
29.1 26.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
MM
T
• Major Exporters• Import Demand• U.S. Situation by Class• Outlook
Major World Wheat Importers(from all origins)
0123456789
10111213
MM
T
2018/19 2017/18
Top 10 Customers for U.S. Wheat
5-year average
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
MM
T
Source: USDA FAS export sales report May 10, 2018.
Top 10 Customers for U.S. Wheat
Year-to-date
Top 10 Customers for U.S. Wheat
2016/17 vs. 2015/16
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
MM
T
2016/17 2015/16
Source: USDA FAS 2016/17 Marketing Year Final export sales report May 31, 2017.
World Wheat Imports
Trend in “other” importers denoted ( )
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
90/91 94/95 98/99 02/03 06/07 10/11 14/15 18/19
MM
T
"Other" China FSU EU-28
• Major Exporters• Import Demand• U.S. Situation by Class• Outlook
U.S. Wheat Plantings by Class
*Source: USDA Prospective Plantings Report, March 29, 2018
23.8 23.2
5.6 5.9
4.0 4.12.3 2.0
10.3 12.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19*
Mill
ion
Acre
s
U.S. Wheat Planted Area by Class
HRW SRW White Durum HRS
U.S. Hard Red Winter
12.1 16.0
29.520.4
12.49.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Hard Red Spring
7.4 6.4
13.410.5
8.76.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Soft Red Winter
4.3 5.9
9.47.9
2.5 2.4
0
5
10
15
20
12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. White
2.02.9
7.8
7.0
4.45.6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Durum
0.8 1.0
2.8
1.5
0.8
1.4
0.7 0.7
0
1
2
3
4
5
12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Wheat Sales by Class(year-to-date)
Source: USDA FAS export sales report May 10, 2018.
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
HRW HRS White SRW Durum
MM
T
2017/18 2016/17
U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks by Class
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
HRW HRS SRW White Durum
MM
T
12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18
U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand
16/17 17/18 16/17 17/18 16/17 17/18
Beginning Stocks 12.1 16.0 7.4 6.4 4.3 5.9Production 29.5 20.4 13.4 10.5 9.4 7.9Imports 0.1 0.2 1.1 2.0 0.9 0.4Supply Total 41.7 36.7 21.9 18.9 14.6 14.2
Domestic Use 13.3 11.9 6.8 7.3 6.2 5.7Exports 12.4 9.8 8.7 6.3 2.5 2.4Use Total 25.7 21.7 15.5 13.6 8.7 8.2Ending Stocks 16.0 15.0 6.4 5.3 5.9 6.1Stocks-to-Use 62% 69% 41% 39% 67% 74%
HRW HRS SRW
MMT
U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand
16/17 17/18 16/17 17/18 16/17 17/18
Beginning Stocks 2.0 2.9 0.8 1.0 26.6 32.1Production 7.8 7.0 2.8 1.5 62.8 47.4Imports 0.2 0.2 0.8 1.4 3.2 4.2Supply Total 10.0 10.1 4.4 3.8 92.6 83.7
Domestic Use 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.3 31.8 29.9Exports 4.4 5.6 0.7 0.7 28.7 24.8Use Total 7.2 8.2 3.4 3.0 60.5 54.6Ending Stocks 2.9 1.9 1.0 0.8 32.1 29.2Stocks-to-Use 40% 24% 29% 28% 53% 53%
MMT
White Durum Total
U.S. FOB Gulf Prices
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Dec-17 Apr-18
$/M
etric
Ton
HRW ords HRS 14% SRW
U.S. FOB PNW Prices
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Dec-17 Apr-18
$/M
etric
Ton
HRW 11.5% HRS 14% SW
SRW and Soft White Prices
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Dec-17 Apr-18
$/M
etric
Ton
SW SRW
U.S. Gulf Basis Prices
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18
$/M
etric
Ton
HRS 13.5 HRW 12 SRW
U.S. PNW Basis Prices
0
50
100
150
200
250
Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18
$/M
etric
Ton
HRS 14 HRW 12
• Major Exporters• Import Demand• U.S. Situation by Class• Outlook
U.S. Wheat Area and Production
15.8
49.6
3.5
3.1 3.1
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
MT/
hect
ares
Prod
uctio
n (M
MT)
and
Har
vest
ed A
rea
(mh)
Harvested Area Production Yield
U.S. Crop Planted Area Comparison
*Source: USDA Acreage Report June 30, 2017
27.9
23.0
22.420.6
18.5
28.9
38.8
37.9 36.8
25.3
30.9
33.336.2
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
Mill
ion
Hect
ares
Wheat Corn Soybeans
World WheatProduction, Use and Trade
735750 758 748
711739 744 754
173
183 182
188
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Trad
e (M
MT)
Prod
uctio
n an
d U
se (M
MT)
Production Use Trade
World CornProduction, Use and Trade
1078
1037
1056
1061
1069
1092
160
151
158
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Trad
e (M
MT)
Prod
uctio
n an
d U
se (M
MT)
Production Use Trade
World SoybeansProduction, Use and Trade
350
337 35
5
329 34
2 358
148151
162
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Trad
e (M
MT)
Prod
uctio
n an
d U
se (M
MT)
Production Use Trade
Ocean Freight Rates for Grains
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
$/m
etric
ton
PNW to Japan Gulf to Middle East Great Lakes to East Med Gulf to West Africa
Summary• Global production to fall for first time in 5 years
• Indian wheat production to fall to 95.0 MMT, 4% below 2017/18• Wheat production in the U.S. to reach 49.6 MMT, 11% below the 5-year average
• Global ending stocks to decline to 264 MMT, still 11% above the 5-year average
• Ending stocks in Canada to fall to 5.23 MMT, 25% below the 5-year average, if realized• U.S. ending stocks to decrease to 26.0 MMT, down 11% from 2017/18, if realized
• World consumption and trade expected to hit new records in 2018/19
• For the first time, two countries— Egypt and Indonesia— expected to import 12.0 MMT in 2018/19
• U.S. 2018/19 exports to total 25.2 MMT, 3% behind the 5-year average, if realized