world water week - asia day - presentation koikemorris

8/6/2019 World Water Week - Asia Day - Presentation KoikeMorris

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Paying for Comfortable Inaction:

Climate Change Adaptat ion forWater in Asia

Presentation by

Toshio Koike (UT) and Chris Morris (ADB)19 August 2008



We know

• impacts from warming

now and in future

• vulnerable urban, rural and basin water

• water adaptation needs

• significant investment in knowledge, human capacityand infrastructure is needed

• continued climate change inaction will beuncomfortable for many



We know


now and in future







58 simulations b 14 models

19 simulations by 5 models



Anomalies (%) ofthe global annualtime series

(1961 to 1990)

Changes in heavy precipitation frequencies >> Changes in precipitation totals

Observed trends for1951 to 2003 in the

contribution to totalannual precipitationfrom very wet days



Spatial pattern of themonthly Palmer DroughtSeverity Index (PDSI) for

1900 to 2002.

Areaaffected

by droughtincrease.

PDSI: a prominent index of drought and measures the cumulative deficit in surface land moisture by incorporating previous precipitation and estimates of moisture drawn into the

atmosphere into a hydrological accounting system.



2XCo2

CO2

Heavier Rainfallin Smaller Area

Impacts of CO2 Increaseon the Water Cycle

Predicted by Models

Bigger Annual Variationof the Summer Rainfall in India

Heavy Rainfall around Japan（CCSR-NIES-JAMSTEC）



Projected changes in

extremes

It is very likely that

heavy precipitationevents will continue tobecome more frequent.

IPCC AR4

It is likely that areaaffected by droughtincreases.

> 90%

> 67%



Recent trends, assessment of human influence on the trend and projections for extreme weather events for which there is an observed late-20th century trend.

> 90%

> 67%

> 67%



Observed rate of sea level riseand estimated contributions from different sources.



projected impact (Stern Report)



Weknow


now and in future







Asian urban water impactswater availability

• decrease of freshwateravailability affecting more thana billion in Asian people by2050

floods and drainage

• city sewer and drainage costsspiral due to changes inprecipitation patterns and sealevels rise



flooding

• weather pattern changes increasing intensity of cyclonic type storms

• storm surges and higher sea levels threateningcoastal high risk basins Ganges-Brahmaputra,Changjiang, Mekong, Godavari

coastal communities

• coastal erosion threatening ecosystems andlivelihoods of Asian poor (archipelago Indonesia,Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines)

• Pacific islands, more than 50% of the population

live within 1.5 km of the shore.water availability

• changes in river runoff patterns affectinghydropower and water supply management

Asian basin water impacts



Weknow


now and in future







Adaptation is the ability of a system

to adjust to climate change (includingclimate variability and extremes) tomoderate potential damages, to takeadvantage of opportunities, or to copewith the consequences.

(Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007)

What is adaptation?



water adaptation needs

knowledge and adaptation management

• develop knowledge on impacts and

vulnerabilities

• integrating adaptation into wider policies

• develop specific climate adaptationguidelines and tools for water planners andpractitioners



Asian Coastal Mega-Cities

• ADB, WB & JBIC: joint sponsors of analysis• Manila, Bangkok, Kolkata, Ho Chi Minh City



Data Integration and Analysis Systemfor creating knowledge to be shared throughout the world

for disseminating data and information that brings awareness



Glacier Lake Outburst Floods

(GLOFs)

Source: Google Earth

Daichi/PRISM:

three independentoptical systems fordigital elevation data

Moraine topography

Daichi/PALSARSynthetic apertureRadar for identifyingwater surface

Lake area expantion

WEB-DHMWater and energybudget distributed

hydrological modelcoupled with climatemodels



archipelagic island adaptation

ADB’s Mid-term Review of the Pacific Strategydevelopment towards a climate resilient future is anecessity in all Pacific Developing Member Countries

Pacific Small Islands Map example

b i d t ti



basin adaptation:Citarum River Basin (Indonesia)

Climate Risk Assessment Process:

1. Identification of climate sensitivity

2. Climate modeling and projection of risks

3. Assessment of climate impact

and adaptation strategies:

i. Creation of hydroclimatologic scenarios

ii. Development of adaptation strategies thatcreate resilience to the expectedhydroclimatologic challenges



water adaptation

• adaptation needs action across disciplines,sectors and organisations

• whilst mitigation is largely “in the air”,adaptation is mainly about “water”

• integrated Water Resources Management(IWRM) is a sensible framework for climatechange adaptation



Weknow


now and in future


• water adaptation needs• significant investment in knowledge, human capacity

and infrastructure is needed




adaptation investment needs

• more extensive adaptation than is currently occurring is

required to reduce vulnerability to future climate change• poverty is the largest barrier to developing the capacity

to cope

• For a one meter sea level rise, global protection costscould amount to $1 trillion (Asia)

• ADB mini-Stern report ???? ERD

A WOW slide $$$



financial mechanisms

ADB funds new Climate Change Fund initial funding of $40million growing………..

Countries investing………………..???????

Other Mechanisms:

Climate Investment Facility (CIF) expected start-up fund is$6.5 billion World Bank, Japan, UK and US,

Global Environment Facility (GEF) $280 million through:Strategic Priority on Adaptation (SPA) $50 millionLeast Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) $172.8 millionSpecial Climate Change Fund (SCCF) $74.6 million

Adaptation Fund $58 million



is necessary to address current and

predicted impacts resulting from the

warming which is already unavoidable

due to past emissions

Investment in Adaptation



Weknow

• impacts from warmingnow and in future


• water adaptation needs• significant investment in knowledge, human capacity

and infrastructure is needed




“There are risks and costs to a program of action. But they are far less than thelong-range risks and costs of comfortable

inaction.” -John F. Kennedy

water: starting to pay for

comfortable inaction



G8 Hokkaido Toyako Summit Leaders

DeclarationHokkaido Toyako, 8 July 2008

Recognizing that poorer countries are among the mostvulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change, we will

continue and enhance cooperation with developingcountries, in particular least developed countries (LDCs) andsmall island developing states, in their efforts to adapt toclimate change including disaster risk reduction.

To address this issue, we commit to support urgent actionsto mainstream adaptation into broader development

strategies and encourage developing countries themselvesto integrate adaptation into their development policies. Theearly start of activities under the UNFCCC Adaptation Fundshould make an important contribution in this respect. We

call on the multilateral development banks and otherdevelopment agencies to support countries in this endeavor.



in Asia: significant and immediate

investments are needed in resources andinfrastructure.

the costs to Asia, particularly to the poor,will be high. Inaction on adaptation will bevisible, and socially and politically

uncomfortable.

concluding remarks



Thank You

(Add name and contactinformation)

Web site: www.adb.org

world water week - asia day - presentation koikemorris

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