world energy prospects according to totalyearofplanetearth.org/content/gle/thierrydesmarest.pdf ·...
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Earth Resources: Threat or Treat? Global Launch Event of the International Year of Planet EarthUNESCO – Paris – February 13, 2008
World Energy Prospects According to Total
Thierry Desmarest Chairman of Total
#Earth Resources- IYPE – UNESCO – Thierry Desmarest – 13/02/08 1
What can we do ?
Demand
Earth resources
Earth Energy Resources: Threat or Treat ?
#Earth Resources- IYPE – UNESCO – Thierry Desmarest – 13/02/08 2
Source : UN, World Population Prospects. IEA. Total
OECD Non-OECD
Energy demand
Trillions (2000$)
GDP (in real terms)
20
40
60
80
1980 2005 2030
3.6%
4.9%
2.2%
Population
Average growth/year2005-2030
1%
2
4
6
8
10
1980 2005 2030
Billions
1.2%
0.2%
MBoe/d
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1980 2005 2030
1.2%
1.8%
1.7%
0.6%
…driven by population growth and economic development
World energy demand is set to increase…
#Earth Resources- IYPE – UNESCO – Thierry Desmarest – 13/02/08 3
-2
2
6
10
14
Power Industry Transportation
Other developing countries including Middle EastDeveloping Asia incl. China
FSU
OECD
Incremental world oil demand by region and sector, 2005-2030 Mb/d
Residential
Source : IEA World Energy Outlook, Total
The number of cars in non-OECD countries, mainly Asian, will be multiplied by 3 (from 200 to 600 million) over the next 25 years
Oil demand mainly driven by transportation
#Earth Resources- IYPE – UNESCO – Thierry Desmarest – 13/02/08 4
Sources: Total, AIEAlternative Policy Scenario
Incremental world gas demand by region, 2005-2030
+1.4 Tcm
Developing Asia incl. China28%
FSU10%
Other dev countriesincluding
Middle-East35%
OECD27%
120
160
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Electricity
Transportation
IndustryHeating
2002-2030growth: +3,2% paenergygrowth: +1,7% paGHG emissiongrowth: +1,7% paFossilfuels = 80% ofprimaryenergygrowth
0
40
80
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Electricity
TransportationIndustry
Heating
IEA primary energy consumption by segment
2005 2015 2030
Coal and gas are the main fuels used for power generation.Renewables are expected to increase their share 39%
22%
45%
22%
46%
21%
132
112
89
17%3%
16%
3%
boe/dayAnnual growth rate,
2005-203017%
12%
Gas demand mainly driven by power generation, the fastest-growing energy demand segment
Renewables
Hydroelectricity
Nuclear
Oil
Natural gas
Coal
(+5.6%)
(+2.0%)
(+0.7%)
(- 0.7%)
(+2.5%)
(+2.1%)
#Earth Resources- IYPE – UNESCO – Thierry Desmarest – 13/02/08 5
What can we do ?
Demand
Earth resources
Earth Energy Resources: Threat or Treat ?
#Earth Resources- IYPE – UNESCO – Thierry Desmarest – 13/02/08 6
ConventionalOil
Extra Heavy Oil
… but are strongly concentrated in the Middle East
Oil resources* (Bb)
Conventional oil Extra-heavy oil
1100
~ 600
< 600
> 600
Resources
Proved Reserves
Reserve growth
Yet-to-find
North America
South America
Africa
Europe
Middle East
CIS
Asia Pacific
Proved reserves of conventional oil and extra heavy oil (EHO) resources *
Proved oil reserves cover around 40 years of today’s demand
* Sources: IEA, USGS, Total estimates
Oil reserves and resources
#Earth Resources- IYPE – UNESCO – Thierry Desmarest – 13/02/08 7
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Required capacityincrease
Producing fields decline (~5% to 6%/year)
Estimated demand growth (~1% to 1.5%/year)
Mb/d
World oil production
Increasing demand and natural decline of producing fields require~ 50 Mb/d of new production between 2005 and 2015
Mb/d = Million barrels per day
The production growth challenge
At current oil prices, producing countries do not need to increase output
Geopolitical constraints or local troubles in producing countries
New developments are complex, expensive and time-consuming
#Earth Resources- IYPE – UNESCO – Thierry Desmarest – 13/02/08 8
Proved conventional gas reserves equivalent to 65 years of today’s demand
Sources : O&G Journal, USGS, IEA, HIS, Cedigaz
FSUFSU
Latin Latin AmericaAmerica
Asia Asia PacificPacific
AfricaAfrica
EuropeEuropeNorth AmericaNorth America
Middle Middle EastEast
Proved reserves of Gas
Gas reserves and resources are more widely spread
Gas ResourcesTCF
~2,000
Estimatedresources
6,340
2,000 2,000
Provedreserves
Reservegrowth
Yet-to-find
Conventional gas NonConventional
#Earth Resources- IYPE – UNESCO – Thierry Desmarest – 13/02/08 9
Source : BP SR
FSU230
Latin America 22
Asia-Pacific292
Africa55
Europe125
North America258
Middle East
2
Coal reserves: ~900 Bt
Abundant coal reserves
Widely spread geographical distribution of reserves
World coal reserves represent about 200 years of today’s consumption
But the increased use of coal will have a strong impact on CO2 emissions
#Earth Resources- IYPE – UNESCO – Thierry Desmarest – 13/02/08 10
1924
2836
4
5
7
10
3
9
2
3
1
1990 2005 2015 2030
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook , Alternative Policy Scenario
Annual growth2005 - 2030
+ 1.7 %+ 1.7 %
+ 8.3 %+ 8.3 %
+ 7.6 %+ 7.6 %
+ 2.5 %+ 2.5 %
Biofuels (incl BtL)
Solar, wind, etc.
Hydroelectric power
Biomass (incl. forestuse in developingcountries)
2424
3131
5858Mboe/dEstimates
4141
+ 2.6% /
+ 2.6% /yearyear..
Renewable energies will grow but account for a small share of the energy mix
#Earth Resources- IYPE – UNESCO – Thierry Desmarest – 13/02/08 11
What can we do ?
Demand
Earth resources
Earth energy resources: Threat or Treat ?
#Earth Resources- IYPE – UNESCO – Thierry Desmarest – 13/02/08 12
* Primary energy Sources: IEA World Energy Outlook and Total
1980 2005 2030
World energy demand* (million boe/day)
Renewables(including hydro & biomass)
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Liquids (excluding biomass)
+ 0.8% / year
2015-2030
+ 1.8% / year
2005-2015
+ 1,8% / year
+ 1,2% / year
152
43 %
17 %
25 %
13 %3 %
65
26374
20
244
35 %
21 %
25 %
13 %6 %
84
52
62
1531
328
30 %
22 %
27 %
6 %
15 %
79 %
100
73
87
1949
A long transition period in energy supply: 80% of the energy mix still derived from fossil fuels in 2030
#Earth Resources- IYPE – UNESCO – Thierry Desmarest – 13/02/08 13
Extra-heavy oil
RecoveryUpgradingProcess integrationEnergy and CO2
Gas solutionsSour gas, CO2 and H2S treatment LNGChemical conversion: GTL, etc.
Deepwater
Multi-phase subseainstallations
International oil companies rely on technology to produce new fields in extreme conditions and to enhance recovery rates from existing fields
Enhanced oil recovery
Polymer injectionChemical methods: solvents,etc.
Advanced technology to meet energy demand
#Earth Resources- IYPE – UNESCO – Thierry Desmarest – 13/02/08 14
CO2 emissions by sector CO2 emissions : potential savings
GtonCO2
Demand efficiency measures
Improved efficiency in the power generation sector
Increased renewables
Increased Nuclear
65%
12%13%
10%
IEA Alternative Policy Scenario
IEA Reference Scenario
26
30
34
38
42
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
5
10
15
20
1990 2005 2030
Power generationIndustryTransportResidential and servicesOther
GtonCO2
Everyone must contribute to more efficient energy use and to CO2 emission reductions
Fossil fuels (incl. coal) account for 59% of GHG emissions
Greenhouse gas emissions: a critical challenge for sustainable growth
#Earth Resources- IYPE – UNESCO – Thierry Desmarest – 13/02/08 15
A way to limit the environmental impact of
growing fossil fuel demand
Lacq : first complete CO2 capture and storage project in Europe
#Earth Resources- IYPE – UNESCO – Thierry Desmarest – 13/02/08 16
Conclusion
Importance of promoting energy efficient solutions to save natural resources and limit CO2 emissions
The critical challenge is reconciling two up to now conflicting targets: meeting energy demand and protecting the climate
Oil and gas likely to account for more than 50% of world primary energy consumption in 2030
Develop technical solutions such as CCS to limit related emissions
Diversify the energy mix Necessary development of alternative / renewable energy options such as nuclear power, biomass, photovoltaic and other renewables to secure the future