1l7GCU8Education and Social Policy Department

The World BankSeptember 1993

ESP Discussion Paper SeriesNo. 7

Secondary Education in Developing Countries

Bruce FullerDonald B. Holsinger

With assistance from:David P. Baker

Rosemary BellewRichard BennettPrema Clarke

Brunhilda ForlemuBen H. Fred-MensahRosalind Michahelles

Pablo StansberyReed Garfield

Richard LaPointe

|he ESP Discussion Paper Seness senes as an inernal systm of record keepin8g refernce. and rusiceoval for te prods of theEducaFon and Snial Policy Deparnent s work programw he hews erpressed here are those of the auihors and should not be

auributed to the Worid Bank or its Board of Erecutve Directon or th cowuies they represet

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ABSTRACT

The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, it reviews and prioritizes the major issues associatedwith secondary education in developing countries. Second, it delineates topics for which empiricalevidence is scarce. Claims about the optimum size, role, and functions of the subsector far outpace theaccumulation of sound evidence on its actual economic and social effects; addressing these claimseffectively requires a well-defined research agenda and analytical framework.

Four sets of issues are reviewed:

* What is the appropriate size and function of secondary education within particular countrycontexts? How can the subsector be better positioned institutionally to maximizeeconomic and social benefits?

* Given budgetary constraints, how can central governments best respond to rising populardemand for secondary education?

* How can the achievement of secondary-school pupils be raised-via central policyimprovements that encourage school improvements at the local level, including effortsto encourage effective private schools? Can a "mixed market" of public and privateschools avoid further inequity in who benefits from secondary education?

X How can central education agencies conserve scarce resources, contain costs, and temperexpensive secondary school streams, such as teacher training and vocational programs?

We describe how the structure of secondary schooling varies across different developingcountries, as well as the diverse economic and social contexts within which the subsector is placed. Theformulation of policy programs and projects should proceed only after benchmarks of effectiveness andthe corresponding constraints that apply to a particular country (even local) context are identified.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary ........... i

I. Objectives of This Review. 1

II. What Are the Priority Areas for Research and the Questions that Define Them? . 2Defining the Issues. 2The Issues: Priority Areas and Policy Questions. 2

Issue A: How Should Secondary Education bePositioned Institutionally to Advance Country-SpecificEconomic and Social Priorities? . 2Issue B: How Can Central Governments Best Respondto the Rising Social Demand For SecondarySchooling? . 3Issue C: How Can the Achievement of Pupils in Secondary Schools beRaised to Boost Economic and Social Benefits? How Can SecondarySchooling be Organized to Make the Distribution of Achievement AmongDifferent Social Groups More Equal? . 3

Organizational Level 1: Classrooms, School, and Families 3Organizational Level 2: Policies and Institutions. 4

Issue D: How Will Governments be Able to Pay For the Costs ofExpanding Access to and Improving the Quality of SecondarySchooling. 4

Basic Terms and Definitions ................................. 5Types of Secondary Schooling ........................... 5Demand ........... .............................. 7Institutional Constraints ............................... 7Demands in the Face of Institutional Constraints ................ 7

Distinguishing Country Contexts ............................... 9Context 1: Demographic Trends .......................... 10Context 2: Family Economy and Cultural Commitment to Schooling ... 11Context 3: Variation in Labor Demand and the Structure of

Wage Labor ................................. 12Context 4: Postcolonial Definitions of Secondary Schooling ... ...... 12Context 5: Government Priorities and the Political-Economic

Construction of Opportunity ........................ 14

III. Issue A: The Function of Secondary Education: Do They Support Expanding theSubsector, and Who Benefits From Them? ............................. 14

Alternative Functions of Secondary Education ...................... 14How Functions Define Across Countries .......................... 15

Function 1: Preparation for Adult Work Activity ................ 15Function 2: Institutionally Easing the Transition of Adolescents

into Adulthood ................................ 18Function 3: Selectivity Versus Mass Opportunity ............... 18Function 4: Common Schooling Versus a Mixed Market of

Providers ................................... 20

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Does Secondary Education Deliver Intended Benefits? ................. 22Does Expansion of Secondary Education Boost Economic Growth? ..... . . . . 22Does Expansion of Secondary Education Yield Social Benefits? .... ........ 23Summary and Priority Issues ................................. 24

IV. Issue B: How Can Governments Respond to the Rising Demand for SecondaryEducation? ................................................. 25

V. Issue C: How Can Schools be Organized Effectively to Raise Achievement AmongPupils? .................................................... 33

VI. Issue D: Effective Central Management of the Costs of Secondary Education and CurricularStreams ................................................... 43

Summary: Policy and Institutional Priorities ................................. 49

TablesTable 2.1. Teacher Cost Savings Due to Demographic Transitions. Illustrative Countries ... .. 11Table 4.1. Increase in Enrollment, by Country Population Growth ................... 26

FiguresFigure 2.1. Structure of Basic and Secondary Education. Illustrative Countries ........... 6Figure 2.2. Share of Secondary School Enrollments in Vocational Programs ............. 6Figure 2.3. Secondary Education Gross Enrollment Ratios by Region, 1980-1989 ... ....... 8Figure 2.4. Male/Female Secondary Enrollment by Region, 1965-1989 ................ 8Figure 2.5. Female/Male Enrollment Rates in 1988. Illustrative Countries .............. 9Figure 2.6. Change in Pupil:Teacher Ratios, 1975-1988. Illustrative Countries ........... 10Figure 3.1. Economic and Enrollment Growth in Germany. Economic Expansion with Low

Secondary Enrollments, 1985-1975 ............................... 16Figure 3.2. Opportunity for Entering Secondary Education. Transition Rates by Region ... .. 19Figure 3.3. Share of Enrollments in Private Schools (Primary and Secondary Enrollments) ... . 21Figure 3.4. Secondary Education Effects on Women's Fertility (Fertility Fates by Year of

Schooling) .............................................. 24Figure 4.1. Opportunity for Entering Secondary Education. Transition Rates from Primary >

Secondary School .......................................... 26Figure 4.2. Change in Recurrent Real Spending per Teacher ....................... 30Figure 4.3. Teacher Wage Bill as Share of Recurrent Spending ..................... 30Figure 4.4. Per Pupil Spending on Primary and Secondary Education. Illustrative Countries,

1988 .................................................. 31Figure 6.1. Relative Prices of Secondary Teacher (per Teacher Spending), 1960-1980 ... .... 44Figure 6.2. Secondary Curricula: Relative Unit Costs (1980s) ...................... 45Figure 6.3. Cost of Preservice Teacher Training Programs. Illustrative Countries ... ...... 47Figure 6.4. Female Secondary School Teachers. Illustrative Countries, 1980-1988 ... ...... 48

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I. OBJECTIVES OF THIS REVIEW

1.1 Over the past decade, governments and international agencies have supported a wealth of policyanalysis and research on primary schooling.' Yet the forces that influence the effectiveness of secondaryschools in developing countries have received much less study.

1.2 Now, however, a variety of Third World countries are sharply debating the policy issuespertaining to secondary education. Myriad issues are being addressed-for example, whethergovernments should moderate their response to the rising demand for secondary schooling when the labormarket demand for graduates levels off or declines; whether formal schools are more effective institutionsfor enabling youths to prepare for university or for integrating youths directly into adult work roles;whether universal access to junior-secondary schools should be provided as a segment of 'basiceducation," and whether the added cost is affordable; and the most effective vehicles for raising thequality of teachers and the achievement levels of pupils. Such issues are not solely empirical-theyinvolve major political choices and priorities as well. Moreover, the effects of their resolution areunknown, impeding well-defined policy efforts. Government leaders, educators, and others who shapedevelopment policies are seeking advice on how these controversial issues can best be resolved, basedon informed, empirical evidence.

1.3 This paper presents a guide to the major issues facing secondary education.' It is based on anextensive review of the literature and on discussions with practitioners in the field. It consists of astrategic framework for studying these policy issues, accompanied, when available, with empiricalevidence that helps describe the issues and reveals the likely effects of alternative policy remedies.Because reviewing what is known across a variety of countries often fails to yield lessons that can beapplied automatically to a particular nation or region, the available evidence reviewed in this paperpertains to broadly shared issues associated with secondary schooling within particular societies. Thus,the paper also offers conceptual tools for considering how the economic and social contexts of countriesvary (and within which secondary education operates). The reader will also note that the researchcommunity, and its benefactors, have been slow to support original empirical work on secondaryschooling-its growth, organizational forms, and actual effects on children and local communities. Inproviding a framework for study, the paper delineates the priority areas for future research according to"major areas of ignorance" (summarized in Annex 2).

1.4 The paper emphasizes institutional improvements in secondary education in the long-term-synchronizing subsectoral policies more effectively with the economic and social priorities ofcentral governments and local communities. State actors-including international agencies-often focuson short-term policy adjustments or project interventions. The more important question is whether thecharacter and qualities of secondary schooling will serve broader civic purposes, whether material, social,or cultural. Serious progress in this arena will take long-range vision, supported by a carefulunderstanding of the most effective strategies for enhancing the size, role, and functions of secondaryeducation institutions.

For a review, see Marlaine Lockheed and Adrian Verspoor (1991), Imoroving Primary Education in Developing Countries, NewYork: Oxford University Press; and World Conference on Education for All (1990), Meetine Basic Learnini Needs, New York:Interagency Commission, UNICEF House.

II. WHAT ARE THE PRIORITY AREAS FOR RESEARCHAND THE QUESTIONS THAT DEFINE THEM?

DEFINING THE ISSUES

2.1 Governments and international agencies face a complex web of problems or "constraints,"associated with secondary education in developing countries. To sort through these problems, theyrequire a simple criterion for categorizing them into a manageable agenda for research. Thus, in thispaper, our definition of an "issue" is twofold:

First, an issue consists of the basic priority areas for research-or the major constraintswhich limit the effectiveness of secondary schools.2 Such constraints can be in the formof limited resources, organizational capacity, or individual skills (of teachers or schoolmanagers). Constraints may reside at different organizational levels, from centralgovernment to local classrooms. However, to claim that a certain constraint impedeseffective performance implies much more detailed empirical evidence than often exists.Thus, second, an issue encompasses major policy questions that shape the priority areasand thus guide policymaking for enhancing the performance of the subsector.

2.2 Our main challenge in defining the issues is overcoming the absence of evidence thatunambiguously marks them as such and, thus, reviewing the issues in an informative way to support theefforts of policymakers and project designers to improve the subsector. We aim to be both pragmaticand stimulating, summarizing evidence that yields policy guidance and sparks fresh ways to approach thesubsector.

THE ISSUES: PRIORITY AREAS AND POLICY QUESTIONS

* Functional Issues. These issues encompass the positioning decisions made bygovermments based on assumptions about the contribution of secondary education toeconomic and social priorities.

* Distributional Issues. These issues encompass the response of the state and privateeducators to the public's demand for secondary education, with a view toward expandingand distributing educational opportunities and quality according to various perspectivesabout equity.

* Organizational Issues. These issues encompass the efforts of governments and educatorsto improve the quality of learning and teaching in the classroom by improving teachertraining, establishing innovative forms of school management, and allocating newinstructional materials.

* Financial Issues. These issues encompass the efforts of governments and privateinstitutions to conserve and allocate resources more effectively, focusing particularly oncontaining the costs of expensive or inefficient elements of the subsector.

Issue A: How should secondary education be positioned institutionally to advance country-specificeconomic and social priorities?

2.3 'Positioning' refers to a set of strategic decisions that each country must make about theobjectives and the expected contributions of secondary schooling to development. Positioning is a long-run question, focusing largely on the size and functions of secondary education and intended to guidestrategic planning for the subsector. The following are the policy questions to be addressed underIssue A:

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* What are the social and private benefits associated with investments in secondaryeducation? How large should the subsector be? What criteria are useful for planning thesubsector's size and character? In particular, under what conditions will expansion orquality improvement influence economic returns and/or social benefits?

* How might (and should) the subsector be better positioned vis-a-vis the technical demandsof the labor market? Can the expansion of or adjustments to the subsector relieveunemployment among youths?

* How do institutional histories and cultural contexts limit the policy options ofgovernments in "re-positioning" the subsector in their countries?

Issue B: How can central governments best respond to the rising social demand for secondaryschooling?

* What are current trends in the levels of expressed demand for secondary education? Towhat extent is demand for-and the supply of-secondary schools uneven across socialgroups?

* Who demands access to secondary schooling? Can schools overcome variations in thefamily backgrounds of pupils to equalize achievement and employment opportunities?

- Why is family demand for secondary schooling for daughters so variable? Cangovernment efforts to address (school) supply constraints overcome household constraintsand uneven demand from parents?

* What are the appropriate instruments for managing the growth of the subsectoreffectively? What is known about antecedent forces that drive the demand for secondaryeducation? What are the implications of moving from an elite to a mass secondary-education system?

* :Can governments (or private providers) expand the subsector and maintain educationalquality simultaneously? What are current trends in the quality of secondary schooling?

* What alternative forms of secondary schooling have been devised to: (a) cope with risingdemand; (b) reduce pressure on government budgets; and/or (c) stimulate wider choiceamong more diverse types of schools? What regulatory and institutional factors constrainthe growth of private schooling?

Issue C: How can the achievement of pupils in secondary schools be raised to boost economic andsocial benefits? How can secondary schooling be organized to make the distribution of achievementamong different social groups more equal?

This organizational issue must be addressed at two levels.

Organizational Level 1: Classrooms, School, and Families

* What factors make schools more effective? What investment strategies are more likelyto yield gains in the achievement of pupils?

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* How can schools be organized to raise the professional commitment and motivation ofteachers?

* Why are private and single-sex schools sometimes more effective at enhancing theachievement of pupils?

* What are cost-effective strategies for improving the teaching of math and science?

* What policies and school characteristics lead to unequal achievement among pupilsenrolled in different secondary-school tracks and types of schools?

Organizational Level 2: Policies and Institutions

* What policies encourage the effectiveness of schools?: How can managerial improvementsat the center improve school quality at the local level? Will decentralizing the subsectorenhance the achievement of and advance equity among pupils? What benefits mightaccrue from improving the centralized management of the subsector?

* How can central government encourage local accountability and enhance the influenceand participation of parents? Do private schools encourage broader participation andsocial cohesion? How can school heads be held accountable for, and provided incentivesto improve, the effectiveness of their schools?

* Do national examinations effectively advance the priority functions of secondaryeducation? Can exams provide appropriate incentives for more effective teachingpractices and learning behavior?

Issue D: How will governments be able to pay for the costs of expanding access to and improvingthe quality of secondary schooling?

* How can governments, central education ministries, and school administrators: (1)conserve scarce resources; and (2) contain costs in two expensive streams-teachertraining and vocational programs or diversified secondary curricula?

* What are the major cost elements of general secondary education? How can these costsbe contained without lowering the achievement of pupils? Are teacher salariescompetitive? What are the recent trends in salary levels?

* How can the two major segments of secondary schooling be made more cost-effective,conserving resources for more effective investments?

Teacher-training track. How can preparation for secondary-level teachers be made more effective? Thetwo parallel priorities are: (1) to minimize teacher training after the senior secondary level; and (2) toimprove the effectiveness of new teachers.

Vocational-training track. Is there evidence that vocational or diversified secondary schools are cost-effective? How can secondary schools ease the transition into wage-sector jobs and adult social roles?Why has the vocational track lost status in the eyes of many parents?

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2.4 Before examining these issues in greater depth according to frameworks for study, we firstprovide some basic terms and definitions to support our discussion. They encompass three areas: thetypes of secondary schooling on which policy makers and project designers often focus, the demand forsecondary schooling, and institutional constraints on access to secondary schooling. After defining theseterms and concepts, we provide a taxonomy for distinguishing different country contexts-thedemographic, cultural, vocational, historical, and political forces that shape the positioning of thesubsector. Then, in the four succeeding sections, we delve into our four bundles of issues, seeking toclarify the basic dimensions of each and reviewing available evidence to support grasping the problemor to reveal the efficacy of alternative remedies.

BASIC TERMS AND DEFINITIONS

Types of Secondary Schooling

2.5 This review focuses on the factors that constrain the effectiveness of general secondary education.This form of secondary education-whether delivered in high-quality, conventional schools or lower-quality schemes-is now preferred by parents in most countries (detailed below). The World Bank hascompleted several studies of "diversified" secondary schools and vocational training, which we reviewin Section VJ.3

2.6 The basic structure of general secondary schooling varies somewhat across countries. Figure 2.1illustrates: (1) how secondary schooling fits into compulsory periods of basic education; and (2) thevariable length of the secondary cycle. These elemental facets of school structure are important in twoways. While compulsory attendance laws alone do little to raise enrollment rates, they do define whatis viewed as the period of "basic education." Increasingly, lower secondary schools are included withinthe government's definition of basic education, with concomitant implications for the share of primary-school completers who are provided places in lower secondary education. Where points at whichsecondary school placements occur later as the period of basic education grows longer, the average lengthof time in school may also increase, perhaps yielding higher achievement levels among pupils. Thecontent of lower secondary school also may become more academic and less vocational when it is definedas part of mass education.'

2.7 Since the 1940s, the structure of secondary education in most industrialized and developingcountries has witnessed a decline in vocational enrollments (Figure 2.2). Independent of the policy debateabout whether secondary schooling should become more vocationally oriented, parents and their childrenare increasingly expressing a preference for more general secondary-education programs.

2.8 Compared with vocational programs, governments and researchers know less about theeffectiveness of primary teacher training programs-a second major stream often situated within thesecondary subsector (or which draws students before they gain a secondary certificate). The Bank'srecent study of primary schooling included research on teaching practices, teacher preparation, and thecost-effectiveness of pre-service training. This work is also reviewed in Section VI.5

2.9 We also pull together evidence about the effects of non-formal secondary schooling. Thisincludes the use of study centers and distance education (involving correspondence materials or radiobroadcasts). This segment of secondary education may be an important response to the increased populardemand for schooling. However, hard evidence is quite scarce on whether pupils learn much, retain this

Figure 2.1. Structure of Basic and Secondary Education. Illustrative Countries

Years of Schooling1 4

12 ------ ----------- 11 -

8

6

4

2

Ofln. ~ena .4g.,. Ch,.n. b.44.. no,d a.. aI C1 a..

Compulsory Educatlah Secondlary Edcucatiorn

Source, Unesco (1991) World Education Report

Figure 2.2. Share of Secondary School Enrollments in Vocational Programs

Puf; in Vam_ _ PX wI_

-* A * Eastern E e - - --

- -1-1 - - - 11 - 11 - - 11 - -- - -- -- --

3D~~ - -oplsr - - - - - --ooher - -uzo --

Source: Unesco daa and Benavot, Aatron (1983), lte Rise and Decline of VocationAl Education.

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knowledge, and subsequently reap economic and social benefits. Available data suggest that few youthsor adults retain the rudiments of literacy gained in the short run, especially when written materials remaindifficult to find in local communities.'

Demand

2.10 When we speak of the demand for secondary schooling, we simply mean that families prefer tosend their child to school and that constraints are sufficiently relaxed to allow actual enrollment (or"expressed' demand). This conventional framework sees families as optimizing economic returns toschooling, given constraints by the household budget and the private costs of schooling.' In addition,family preferences and perceived constraints can be defined culturally. Parents' preferences for secondaryeducation may be low, particularly for their daughters or when the link between education and theavailable wage sector is weak. Conversely, family preferences may be quite strong, but contextualconstraints prohibit their expression of demand.

Institutional Constraints

2.11 Given the scarcity of public resources, governments must manipulate institutional constraints onaccess to secondary school-including the rationing of school spaces, pricing policy, and selectionprocesses and national examinations. Such central controls are rational in an economic sense, given thatthe labor market can absorb only so many secondary-school graduates. Some governments also limit thesupply of school in order to moderate rising expectations among the general public for socialopportunities. The household's attempt to maximize its own welfare, when aggregated, conflicts withthe state's own resource constraints and its pursuit of political stability and motivational incentives. Howaccess can be rationed in equitable ways-so that the rules of mobility seem fair and meritocratic-is amajor policy issue, as are the forms of learning and behavior that are rewarded via national exams.

Demands in the Face of Institutional Constraints

2.12 Trends in family demand and enrollment rates. Despite these constraints and uneven levels offamily demand, secondary schooling has grown steadily in most parts of the developing world. Figure2.3 shows enrollment rates by region since 1965. Enrollment rates continued to inch upward during the1980s, despite budgetary constraints. Overall secondary enrollment rates in Latin America and Asia arenow equal to enrollments in the middle-income countries of eastern Europe and north Africa.

2.13 Gender inequities in expressed demand. The enrollment demand of young men and women variesremarkably. Female enrollment has risen considerably since 1965, although sharp variations amongregions and nations still exist. As shown in Figure 2.4 the percentage of female general-secondarystudents in Latin America climbed from 43 percent in 1965 to 52 percent in 1989. Yet in Sub-SaharanAfrica the female share rose only from 26 percent to 36 percent between 1965 and 1989. Figure 2.5shows gross enrollment rates (GERs) for female and male pupils for 1988. Female rates are commonly10 to 20 percent below male enrollment rates. Even in countries with high secondary enrollments overall(for example, Chile and Peru), female rates are lower.

2.14 Are governments keeping pace with rising family demand? Skyrocketing demand for primaryeducation is difficult to slow; in any event, doing so is a policy option that few would endorse. Mostgovernments allow an increasing number of children to enter school-even when the training of newteachers and the construction of new classrooms lag far behind. Traditionally, however, centralgovernments have: (1) financed secondary education more adequately; and (2) kept a tighter lid on the

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Figure 2.3. Secondary Education Gross Enrollment Ratios by Region, 1980-1989(including vocational streams)

Gross Enrollment Ratio (%)60

50…-- - - - - - - - - - -- -

40 ------------

30-------

20 …-----------

10

0Africa Asia EMENA Latin America

| 1980 E1989

Source: Unesco data and PHREE

Figure 2.4. Male/Female Secondary Enrollment by Region, 1965-1989

% GnerWl S8candwy Enrollent. Femae

so----______ _

201----

Africa + Asia X EMENA -- Latin America

Source: Unesco data and PHREE

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Figure 2.5. Female/Male Enrollment Rates in 1988. Illustrative Countries

Gross Enrollment Rates (GER)80

60 -------------------------------

20 ---------

0 [---_--Kena -aL- - _ 1_n__ 11

IU Female GER U Male GER

Sougrce: Unesco (1991) World Education Report

expansion of new secondary-school placements. Have governiments been able to keep up with demandpressures, at least in terms of hiring additional teachers and maintaining per-pupil spending levels? Asshown in Figure 2.6, the answer is 'yes' in a large number of countries. Even countries whoseeconomies deteriorated during the late 1970s and 1980s have found the resources to maintain already lowpupil:teacher ratios. Unlike the primary-school subsector, many countries have been able to hireadditional teachers to keep pace with rising enrollments.

DISTINGUISHI[NG COUNTRY CONTEXT'S

2.15 The social and economic aims, curricula, and even classroom teaching practices of primaryschooling are quite similar across nations.! Secondary school systems are more idiosyncratic, developingfrom particular institutional histories, labor structures, and paths of social opportunity. The design ofpolicy adjustmnent programs or projects-but particularly long-term strategic planning-should take thesecultural and institutional particulars into account. When generic policy recipes or school interventionsare mounted without a careful examination of country contexts, the likelihood of their failure rises. Fivedimnensions of country context should be recognized.

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Figure 2.6. Change in Pupil:Teacher Ratios, 1975-1988. Illustrative Countries

Pupil:teacher ratio35

30…-

25 ________ - - - ----- _ _----------

20 ________ --------

15

10 -----

5

Tanuns a mateam zl.babw. Mal 1101.1 11111 Maayma SIg* mlm A,g.flira PW1

|1975 E1988

Soruce: Unesco data

Context 1: Demographic Trends

2.16 Fertility rates are slowing in many developing countries. Several Latin American and east Asiansocieties have made significant progress toward reducing their birth rates. In the short run, the shrinkingof child cohorts reduces the pressure to expand the primary school system. In Indonesia, for instance,the government is grappling with the costly consequences of the overabundance of primary schoolteachers. One policy alternative is to move resources in the primary-education subsector to the secondarysubsector."

2.17 Table 2.1 illustrates the level of savings from declines in the fertility rate. Countries with sharplyslowing birth rates will save budgetary resources of between 5 and 7 percent of their teacher wage billeach year. And these estimates are conservative, in that savings are associated with the overall declinein the population growth, not in the size of the child cohort, which is greater in the medium term.

2.18 In addition, the easing of demographic pressures will facilitate a more careful examination of howthe quality and equitable distribution of secondary education can be improved. When governments arepressured to expand primary and secondary school places, the quality and distributional equity ofschooling may receive little attention. One policy option-particularly in countries whose fertility ratesare high-is to emphasize family planning efforts before any serious change in secondary-schoolinvestments is considered.

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Context 2: Family Economy and Cultural Commitment to Schooling

2.19 The extent to which families exercise short-term demands on children-to contribute to thehousehold's income, social responsibilities (child care, for instance), and status within thecommunity-varies considerably. So, too, does the extent to which families associate the child's levelof school attainment to long-term gains in the household's economic welfare and social rewards. Andparents hold various types of resources that may support or inhibit the child's progress through school.Primary-school and thence secondary-school enrollments grew rapidly in rural parts of the United States,for example, because labor demands on children were seasonable (the opportunity costs to schooling werelow during much of the agricultural cycle). The commitment of Protestant parents to literacy and theirtradition of didactic instruction (within Calvinist sects) offered clear resources that complemented theNorth American common school.10 Contemporary cases of drawing on indigenous cultural commitmentsto literacy include the integration of Koranic schooling and secular curricula within the Islamiccommunities of Pakistan or northern Nigeria."

Table 2.1. Teacher Cost Savings Due to Demographic Transitions. Illustrative Countries

Percentage Decline in Number of Secondary Annual Percentage IncreaseAnnual Population Teachers in Teachers Required if NoGrowth (1965-75) 197S 1988 Population Decline

India -0.1 1,180,233 2,265,202 1

Malaysia -0.2 34,133 68,629 2

Mali -0.1 2,567 4,918 1

Mexico -0.5 169,781 397,148 7

Peru -0.4 34,136 68,541 5

Note: Estimates of the increas in the percentage of teacher required beginning in 1988. These estimates are conservative in that weassume no growth in the enrollment rates and no change in the pupil tcacher ratio (which have been declining in some countries).

Source: UNESCO Statistical Yearbooks and World Bank, Social Indicators of Develotment. 1986.

2.20 Recent research on the achievement of Japanese children also reveals elements of the familycontext that influence school performance. Teachers' behavior inside the classroom helps explain whyJapanese achievement levels are generally high. But maternal pressure for achievement, time devotedto helping children with their homework, and intensity of communication about and evaluation of schoolwork also influence achievement levels.'2

2.21 This mention of family context may seem academic. Indeed, the institutional positioning ofsecondary schools often occurs in the absence of local preferences and the practices of parents.Historically, the secondary school was simply transplanted from the West (whether from the moreselective French structure or as an approximation of the mass secondary-school system from the UnitedStates). But, then, we should not be surprised when family demand is uneven across social groups orwhen pupil performance is low. Unless the secondary school can more effectively fit local preferencesfor specific types of socialization and knowledge, discontinuities will continue to constrain the subsector'seffectiveness.

Context 3: Variation in Labor Demand and the Structure of Wage Labor

2.22 When country context is taken into account, it is the secondary education's fit with wage-labordemands that often receives attention. This form of economic functionality is a recent historicaldevelopment. French lycges and collWges have historically been linked to academic training, oftenpreparing youths for university entry. During the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, the riseof the North American secondary school, was driven by the burgeoning ranks of primary schools andconcern about how 'adolescents' could be kept occupied (a social group virtually created both by urbanunemployment and by secondary schools that segregated youths from adult work roles for the first time).Enrollment rates had actually been depressed by rising labor demand from early industrial firms. Whilehuman capital theorists portray secondary education as rationally preparing today's youths for skilled jobs,employers have historically competed with schools for the loyalty of young people, particularly duringearly periods of commercial and industrial expansion (both in the West and in developing countries).13

2.23 After World War fl, however, the role of secondary schooling came to be defined largely asserving the skill requirements of expanding urban manufacturing firms. Thus, the form and content ofsecondary education should presumably take into account variation in the size and character of labordemand in the modern sector. The percentage of all workers engaged in agriculture varies widely acrossregions and countries-in Asia, declining from 75 percent to 68 percent between 1965 and 1980; inAfrica, moving from 79 percent to 75 percent; and in Latin America, dropping from 45 percent to 33percent during the same period. While we often assume that secondary education contributes to the skilldemands of the value-added sectors of the economy, labor demand in industry and high-skilled servicesremains limited, and growth occurs only over long stretches of time. In many developing countries,secondary-school enrollment continues to rise at a quicker pace than the corresponding increase in thenumber of skilled jobs (and thus the onset of credentialism appears and intensifies in static economies).At the same time, increasingly intense labor regulation freezes youths out of entry-level jobs.

2.24 Such sharp variability in the structure of labor, and changes in labor demands over time, holdstwo important implications. First, the skill demands (and thus wage differentials) that exist in differentsegments of the labor market may suggest an appropriate size for secondary education. Assuming thatthe content and purpose of general secondary education (that is, its 'positioning") is to prepare youthsto enter commercial or administrative jobs, then the size of and anticipated changes in these laborsegments should influence the size of the secondary-education subsector.

2.25 Second, the skill requirements within different segments of the workforce might affect the formand content of secondary schooling. It is dangerous to assume that the skill requirements of commercialand industrial jobs are always more complex than those of rural forms of work. The expansion ofsecondary schooling has occurred for many reasons, not simply in response to technical change inproduction processes or from shifts in skill demands." Overall, however, the positioning of thesecondary-education subsector should flow from a careful understanding of skill requirements in the laborforce and exactly how current forms of secondary education actually provide the forms of literacy,numeracy, higher-order cognitive and social proficiency necessary to match these labor demands. Thisis not to argue that additional 'labor force planning' should be undertaken; our argument is that very littleis known about the relationship between the content of general secondary schooling and how it translatesinto labor force outcomes.

Context 4: Postcolonial Definitions of Secondary Schooling

2.26 Governments and donors assume that pieces of the educational sector can be planned or adjustedconsciously to fit economic or social priorities more effectively. Yet the school organization, rooted in

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its own institutional history and habits, is often impervious to intervention by would-be reformers.Within secondary education, we know that certain organizational elements, originating under colonialregimes, have persisted over long stretches of time. Reliance on Cambridge exams at the end of junioror senior secondary schooling is one example.'5 Yet long-standing institutional traditions do at timeserode; in the mid-1980s, Kenya moved away from a British secondary-school structure, marked bycompetitive exams at the end of junior and senior secondary forms. It replaced the old colonial structurewith a North American mode-a four-year secondary school in which the junior certificate exam waseliminated."6

2.27 Clearly, elements of secondary education flow from particular institutional histories, shaped bothby colonial forces and by more recent Government action. Together, they represent a strong institutionalcontext that must be understood as policy adjustments or project interventions are introduced. Four suchelements are crucial to designers:

* What share of youths benefit from the subsector's allocation of graduates to high-statusjobs? Secondary education must expand to serve a growing number of primary schoolgraduates and to produce more candidates for university or polytechnic training. Undercolonial administrations, secondary school graduates became civil servants, militaryleaders, and church ministers. Thus, only a limited number of youths benefitted fromsecondary-level schooling. Contemporary secondary schools must respond both to forcesinternal to the education sector itself-especially the rising demand for universityentry-and to external labor-market pressures.

* How strartfied is the structure of secondary schooling? The balance between supportingelite, academic schools and moving toward a mass system continues to be debated inpolicy circles. Historically in the West, and in much of east Asia, the number ofsecondary schools whose explicit purpose was to prepare the elite and which imposedstrict selection criteria varied sharply by region within countries. A broad range of classand curricular emphases is still common among secondary-institution strata in many ThirdWorld countries. State subsidy levels usually go disproportionately to the most selectiveschools to maintain their high quality. These institutional patterns are deeply entrenched,often in the guise of legitimately and meritocratically sorting out the most able studentsand young professionals.

* How are national curricula, official knowledge, and nomative teachingpractices defined,and by whom? The content and social rules of the classroom-indeed, acceptedindicators of school "quality'-were cast under colonial regimes. The form and contentof national syllabi and examinations have persisted in many developing countries. Theauthority of the teacher and didactic norms of 'proper teaching' have been imposediteratively over time. Departing from a Cambridge-style exam, or chalk-and-talkinstruction, connotes a departure from high standards.

* What role does the secondary school play in the transition of youths to adulthood?Historically in the West, secondary education expanded when industrial wage jobs foryouths became more scarce." Over time, the normative path to adulthood becamedominated by attendance in secondary school. To leave school and enter the labor forcewas an unusual path, stigmatizing youths who followed it. Debate continues inindustrialized countries about whether keeping youths in school so long-postponing adultwork roles-intensifies labor-force alienation and retards the acquisition of job skills."

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Context 5: Government Priorities and the Political-Economic Construction of Opportunity

2.28 The size, quality, and differentiation of secondary schools and streams are shaped by govermnentpriorities external to education. The surrounding political context influences how economic and socialopportunities are constructed-and how education reinforces or subverts the intended range ofopportunities. For instance, since independence, Kenya has not linked the expansion of secondaryschooling directly to labor demands. Widening access to the subsector has signaled that the opportunitystructure is becoming more open-at least while one is young. In the same region, Malawi and Tanzaniahave constrained access to secondary education more tightly. They have placed greater priority on theexpansion of primary schooling, and have coupled the structuring of wage-labor opportunity (providedthrough secondary schooling) explicitly with (slow) growth in wage-sector employment.

III. ISSUE A: THE FUNCTION OF SECONDARY EDUCATION: DO THEYSUPPORT EXPANDING THE SUBSECTOR, AND WHO BENEFITS FROM THEM?

A3.1 How should secondary schooling be positioned within national or local priorities-that is, withinthe five country contexts discussed in Section 2. Addressing this question involves long-run institutionalquestions about the subsector's optimal size, role in society, and specific functions-again, its positioning.In turn, the current positioning of secondary schools within a given country stems from two long-termforces. First, planners and political leaders hope to fit secondary schools rationally into economic andsocial agendas: for example, to prepare youths to fill wage-sector jobs, to raise the proficiencies ofaspiring university entrants, or to reinforce nation building. These objectives translate into the functionof the secondary education system.

A3.2 Second, however, the school often behaves as an insular institution with a life of its own,operating according to its own objectives, habits, and rituals independent of stated national objectives.The organizational form of secondary school passed on by colonial regimes-often retaining credibilityin postindependence eras-is not necessarily functional, nor is it grounded necessarily in culturalcommitments and local economic demands. In predominantly agrarian societies, for instance, theresidential secondary school may emphasize academic instruction that is appropriate only for the smallslice of youths who will find jobs in the urban wage sector. The functions of education and its qualityin the school institution are not easy to alter: witness parents' rising preference worldwide for academicsecondary education, rather than the vocational track. This trend is even more remarkable, given thatmany governments have attempted to 'diversify' the curricula, moving it away from the academic, urbanbias.' In the remainder of this section, we examine the primary functions of secondary education anddiscuss their intended benefits relative to whether the size of the subsector should be expanded. As inthe other major sections of this paper, we list 'Areas of Ignorance" for issues that should be the focusof additional research (also see Annex 1).

ALTERNATIVE FUNCTIONS OF SECONDARY EDUCATION

A3.3 Unlike primary education, the intended functions of secondary schools vary substantially amongcountries. The diversity of institutional structures across and within nations is reflected in separatestreams for different students, variations in educational quality, and the diversity of curricula.'Tradeoffs in four functional priorities are commonly observed:

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Function I (Teaching Mission). Direct preparation for the demands of labor-market entry basedon a curriculum emphasizing specific vocational skills, versus a broad liberal education based ona curriculum focusing on general literacy, academic disciplines, and moral/religious values.

Function 2 (Social Transition). A school organization and patterns of activities that attempt toease the transition of adolescents into adult economic and social roles, versus the absence of theseorganizational elements based on the assumption that the labor market will address this transitionautomatically.

Function 3 (Selection of Beneficiaries). A social selection mechanism for identifying the mostable white-collar workers, versus an overall institutional mechanism to provide a broader, usuallyterminal educational opportunity for nearly all youths.

Function 4 (Mobilization of Providers). The secondary school as an agency of the state, financedby the public treasury and administered by civil servants, versus a free market of providers inwhich the state is one among several providers and funding sources.

A3.4 Typical sectoral analyses, of course, often address debates over these competing functions. Attimes, questions about how institutional functions can be adjusted are at the heart of policy dialogueprograms. For instance, Kenya's shift to a North American-style, mass secondary system (abandoningselection exams at the junior secondary level) holds enormous implications for educational quality andequity.21 The intentions of the govermnents of Indonesia and Pakistan to make lower secondary gradespart of "basic education" stem from similar shifts-from defining secondary schooling as a selective-basedinstitution pegged to labor demands to a subsector that promises mass social opportunity independent ofeconomic needs. These fundamental institutional changes may occur independently of central policies-asin Pakistan, in which local primary schools (allegedly under provincial control) commonly convertthemselves into middle schools.2?

HOW FUNCTIONS DEFINE ACROSS COUNTRIES

A3.5 Government planners and donors often have basic structural models in mind: the mass secondaryschool found in the United States; the more selective secondary school scheme originating in France; ordual tracks for academic versus vocational students or apprentices as still operates in Germany. Inreality, secondary school systems vary in more textured ways-along the four functional dimension justenumerated. Cases for specific countries help illustrate these points of variation in the functions of thesubsector.

Function 1: Preparation for Adult Work Activity

A3.6 Historically in the West, secondary schools were designed to serve the interests of the church orthe university, not the labor market. France's early nineteenth-century advent of the lycEe and localcollege focused on training young bureaucrats. Only much later did industrial growth in the UnitedKingdom and the United States-along with corresponding social unrest and then a sharp decline in labordemand for young workers-push those governments to diversify their secondary school curricula so asto encompass a larger range of subjects, including explicitly vocational ones. Only in the United Stateswere these pressures-along with an egalitarian faith in wide social opportunity-sufficient to lead tomass secondary-education system. In Europe, the subsector remains detached from labor demands,oriented toward university entry requirements, and enrolling fewer than two-thirds of all youths.

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A3.7 The transformation of the North American high school into a mass institution, serving themajority of youths, is a quite recent phenomenon. Importantly, the expansion of secondary schools wasnot an essential ingredient of early commercial integration and later industrial revolution. In the UnitedStates, secondary-education enrollment rates did exceed 20 to 30 percent prior to the industrialrevolution-yet the rising demand of factory owners for young workers actually slowed school expansion.In western Europe, commercial expansion in the eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries occurred whilesecondary enrollments were at about 10 percent of the age cohort. Industrial revolutions in England andPrussia came and went without secondary enrollment rates ever exceeding 30 percent. Figure 3.1illustrates the case of Germany, in which low enrollment levels have persisted even during periods ofsharp economic growth. Typically, in both the Vinited States and Europe, gains in real family incomeand the increased scarcity of entry-level jobs for youths-following economic expansion-have fueledsecondary school enrollment.2' The reciprocal influence of school expansion on subsequent economicgrowth has been the subject of much empirical research. We return to this topic shortly.

A3.8 Direct historical comparisons between Europe and developing countries are problematic, sinceadult literacy rates commonly exceeded 50 to 60 percent in many regions of western Europe by the earlynineteenth century. In contrast, developing countries have been tempted to expand secondary educationrapidly before the widespread adoption of such cultural commitments to literacy or quality primaryschooling.

Figure 3.1. Economic and Enrollment Growth in Germany. Economic Expansion with Low SecondaryEnrollments, 1985-1975

GNP (thousands) Enrollment Rates (%)

40 30

--------------------------?---- --- t 2

…~~~~~~~~~~~~~~25

…00 - - -- 15

100…--------- -- t---- 10

100 - -------------------- -A- ----

GNP (constant prices) + Elite Sec. Schools * Mass Sec. Schools

Source: M. Garnier end J. Hage (1991) Education and Economic Growth in Germany.

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A3.9 Aligning Secondary Education with Complex Labor Demands. Given the subsector's links withuniversity access and the industrial workforce, secondary schools predictably focus most heavily on therequirements of the urban wage-sector. Conversely, lower-secondary schools in rural areas areincreasingly attractive targets of subsector expansion. Govermnents wishing to consolidate literacy andnumeracy gains from primary schooling are increasingly opting to fold lower-secondary schools into theirbasic education systems. This positioning of the subsector often targets rural families and the urban poor.of schooling.25

A3.10 However, the increasingly commonplace view that general secondary education is the bestpreparation for entry into labor markets and forfurther training is not well understood in poor countrieswith high youth and rural unemployment. Whether the labor- market utility function of general secondaryschooling will replace the traditional view that vocational schooling holds the key to addressing youthunemployment remains an enormous question.' [Area of Ignorance #1: We have few descriptions ofthe types of secondary schooling that seek to serve families and youths who work outside the wagesector.]

A3. 11 Another complexity limits the capacity of govermments to tighten the link between secondaryeducation and labor demands: trends within the formal wage sector and the informal economy-thenumber of jobs and the types of skills required-are difficult to estimate. Twin assumptions encouragesecondary educators to impose greater vocationalization on the curriculum: (1) that modernization iscreating many more jobs that require more specialized skills, whether the need is for more lathe operatorsor more chemistsp; and (2) that providing these skills within secondary schools is cost-effective.Evidence on the first assumption shows that, during early periods of economic development, unskilledand semi-skilled jobs in trade and industry grow most quickly, not skilled occupations that requiresecondary-education preparation.' In addressing the second assumption, the World Bank and othershave undertaken extensive empirical work which suggests that specialized skill training is best left toemployers (except in areas where labor shortages are acute and persistent). We return to this issue later.

A3. 12 Meeting Social and Institutional Priorities. Fine-tuning the fit between secondary education andeconomic goals often is not the primary concern of governments or families. Frequently, the functionof the subsector to serve social and institutional goals is of paramount importance. Two social agendasare quite common. First, the expansion of secondary schooling holds enormous symbolicpower-signaling the expansion of social opportunities. The individual family hopes to raise the schoolattainment of its children, which, in the aggregate, creates enormous pressure on governments to expandthe subsector. In the eyes of parents, such expansion increases the chances that their children will finda place at the university or a good job. These popular demands build whether or not Government is ableto expand higher education or whether labor demand is sufficient to absorb more graduates. Here, theexpectation of social opportunity drives school expansion; the function of secondary education is to signalthat mass opportunities are opening up.

A3.13 The second social agenda is that governments and families often have faith that secondaryschooling will advance the socialization of children. Finding a wage-sector job is obviously important.In addition, secondary schooling can yield desirable social benefits: inculcating loyalty to the nation-state,encouraging the use of a common language, or reinforcing cultural values. Sometimes, social aims aremore specific: encouraging family planning and modern health practices, teaching agricultural skills, oracquainting youths with science and mathematics. The explicit teaching of moral values and social normsremains strong in many east Asian and Islamic societies. For example, govermment schools in Indonesiaand Taiwan have formal curricula in moral-spiritual areas of study. An emphasis on moral socializationmay increase as private schools expand, pushed by religious-institution support and by parents dissatisfiedwith homogenous forms of secular schooling.' [Area of Ignorance #2: We know very little about how

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moral-spiritual topics are taught in secondary schools and whether their teaching influences organizationalcohesion and student achievement, as suggested by initial work on Catholic schools in the United Statesand secularized Islamic schools.']

Function 2: Institutionally Easing the Transition of Adolescents into Adulthood

A3. 14 In a growing number of middle-income countries, the major question facing educationpolicymakers is not whether secondary education should be expanded, but whether the subsectorexcessively dominates the lives of young persons-warehousing pupils in schools that isolate them fromactual work experience and adult social roles.0 Since the 1950s, analysts within Europe and NorthAmerica have argued about whether the institutional construction of a self-contained "adolescent society"has intensified the alienation of teenagers. This debate has heated-up in southern and eastern Europe,where youth unemployment is again on the rise. Remedies in the West have varied widely. The Germanapprenticeship model tracks youths into a vocational stream, linking them with private firms. Britain'srevamped youth training scheme is a conventional school-based vocational training program. Australianow pays disadvantaged youths to remain in, and to graduate from a general secondary school.3'

A3.15 Governments in developing countries respond to the "transition to adulthood" issue in one of threeways. First, they simply expand the secondary-education subsector, hoping to meet rising socialexpectations and reduce immediate employment demands by youths. Second, they continue to formalizeand expand vocational training programs, despite declining popular demand for nonacademic training.The extent to which private firms are involved in training apprentices-as opposed to a vocational trainingprogram that occurs far from any real workplace-is a critical determinant of the success of theseprograms. (We return to empirical analyses in this area later.) Third, many countries now instituteformal youth service programs, which provide practical experience for youths after they complete theirsecondary schooling. Secondary-school graduates in Botswana and Nigeria, for instance, serve in a ruralvillage for one year before they can apply for admission to the university.

A3. 16 In the United States, many high schools award academic credits to students participating in workexperience programs, involving jobs with private employers or social service agencies. The influenceof these "cooperative education programs' on the school performance and future employment success ofpupils is the subject of considerable empirical research. Their effects can be positive, depending on thequality of the job in which the pupil is placed.32 Whether such "youth transition' programs are feasiblewithin developing countries is another issue on which we have almost no evidence. The extensiveevaluation work on Colombia's SENA job-training program does suggest that, when apprenticeships areorganized within firms, future employment effects can be positive.3 [Area of Ignorance #3: We knowlittle about the cost-effectiveness of youth service programs that have operated for some time in manydeveloping countries.]

Function 3: Selectivity versus Mass Opportunity

A3. 17 Secondary education has traditionally been a selective institution: sorting a small proportion ofyouths for wage jobs in the church, military, bureaucracy, or private firms. Despite steady rates ofexpansion, the subsector in many developing countries remains highly selective, especially at the upper-secondary level: student spaces are limited, class sizes remain small, and students compete fiercely forthe even fewer number of spaces available at the national university.

A3. 18 Figure 3.2 reports the share of primary school graduates who win a space in secondary school.This proportion exceeds 80 percent in Asia-but falls below 40 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa. Primary-to-secondary transition rates vary enormously among countries, and even across nations within the same

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Figure 3.2. Opportunity for Entering Secondary Education. Transition Rates by Region

% Primary Grads Entering Secondary School100

60 - - - -- -- - -- -- - -

40 -- - - -- - ---- - -

20 - --

ID Mica Siub) Asa E Lin

Source: Unesco (1991) World Education Report

region. In Malawi, for instance, just 7 percent of primary-school graduates find a place at the secondary-school level. This proportion is 90 percent or more in the Philippines and Venezuela. These differencesrepresent enormous variability in how broadly or narrowly educational opportunities are structured.

A3. 19 The selectivity of secondary schools (or particular streams within the overall subsector) obviouslyhas implications for the equity with which educational and job opportunities are allocated. Governmentsoften decide that access to secondary schooling must be opened more widely to signal that society isbecoming more equitable-thus the strategy of making lower-secondary forms part of the mass schoolsystem. In most developing countries, upper-secondary schools retain their selective character. Makingthe entire subsector free of selection constraints is simply not cost-effective. Many countries haveattempted to create separate tracks: high-quality, 'government-maintained' secondary schools, and low-quality, community-secondary streams. Equally important, those few countries that have made secondaryschooling universal-as have Japan and the United States-have discovered that sorting and selectivitystill occur via the educational structure. It simply becomes a function of either the status of thegraduate's particular secondary school, or the graduate's own performance on standardized measures ofperformance. In some cases, universities become stratified to protect the status advantages of certainsocial groups (and the quality of certain institutions). This phenomenon of shifting the credentialing andlabor-allocation process upward may intensify as more private secondary schools enter the market.

A3.20 Policy adjustments often seek to situate secondary education in a compromise position, searchingfor a middle ground between selectivity and the preservation of quality versus widening access to more

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primary school graduates. This dilemma is wrapped within a larger question: Can secondary schoolingprovide more equitable social mobility, independent of the family background and prior social class ofyouths? The rules for entering high-quality secondary schools (or even low-cost streams) should be valid,not influenced unfairly by the ascribed characteristics of youths. (Even when wage-sector growth is slowor access to secondary school remains constrained, motivation is presumably higher when educationalopportunities and incentives are allocated without regard to social-class.)

A3.21 The issue can be broken down into two empirically testable questions. First, is access tosecondary schooling determined by family background, or has primary schooling helped even-out social-class advantages and earlier differences in achievement? Then, second, does actual achievement inschool, rather than family background, influence occupational mobility? An extensive longitudinal studyin Chile, for instance, found that access to secondary school was influenced partially by children's familybackground, but that, after graduation, the quality of the secondary school and the achievement levels ofits students shaped occupational status and wage gains. Similar evidence is now available from Brazil,Colombia, and Ghana.4 Conversely, a careful study in Zimbabwe found that social-class backgroundboth strongly determines who gains access to high-quality secondary schools and shapes the achievementlevels of graduates.35 In Kenya, three types of secondary schools (government-maintained, government-supported, and local self-help) serve youths who are often of quite different social classes.6 Here, too,among those students who enter, achievement levels and eventual wage gains of secondary-school studentsare a function more of differences in the quality of schools than of their family background. Bycomparing schooling and jobs in Kenya and Tanzania, this study also reveals how the structure of labor(public versus private-sector job demand and wage constraints) conditions whether wage effects andmobility are likely due to the secondary-school performance of pupils.37

A3.22 In sum, efforts to broaden access to secondary school are well intentioned. But slight adjustmentsin the subsector's positioning (expanding the size or modifying the functional balance between quality andwider access) will not likely be effective at overcoming social-class advantages. However, theachievement and subsequent mobility of youths who are able to secure a secondary-school space dependless on family origin and more on the quality of schools they attend. Area of Ignorance #4: Additionalresearch in other developing countries must be undertaken to inform the heated policy debates aboutwhether secondary education can truly broaden equity.

Function 4: Common Schooling versus a Mixed Market of Providers

A3.23 Secondary schooling is often controlled by central government, even in societies where primaryschooling has been a local responsibility. Secondary schools are typically quite expensive. The selectionof elite members of society-managers and professionals-is a task closely watched by political elites.Intellectuals and their scholarly organizations, academic journals, societies for the advancement of thescholarly disciplines, and the integrity of a national language are all advanced by a commnon form ofsecondary schooling. For these reasons, the central state has retained close control of the subsector. Butcan the governments of developing countries feasibly supply secondary schools at the pace at whichpopular demand is growing?

A3.24 In many developing countries, the private sector already enrolls a sizeable proportion of allsecondary pupils, ranging upward to 38 percent in Colombia, to 41 percent in Nigeria, and to 49 percentin India (see Figure 3.3). This 'private sector' is very diverse, including low and high-qualityproprietary schools, as well as schools sponsored by churches and non-profit organizations.'Development agencies generally support an even greater role for private school providers. This drifttoward encouraging private provision and financing-often based on limited evidence-raises three issuesassociated with the positioning of the subsector:

20 -

* Will a greater diversity of providers increase or reduce any economic benefits fromsecondary schooling? Where private schools are more effective at boosting achievement,productivity gains may be higher. Where the quality of private schools is low or localsocial agendas dominate family choices, gains in technical skills may actually be lower.Encouraging greater private investment in schooling in an unrestricted fashion maysimply feed the process of credentialism.

* Will the expansion of private secondary schools erode meritocratic and equitableincentives? The stratification of school quality, apparent when private schools serveaffluent families (or offer low-quality education to poor families), may reinforce social-class inequities, rather than equalize opportunities.9

* How will the expansion ofprivate schooling advance national and local social objectives?Koranic schools, for instance, do effectively absorb "excess demand" for schooling, buthow do they advance the national interest in establishing a common language? Privateschools are rarely effective at advancing public interests-for example, encouragingfamily planning or maternal health practices.

Figure 3.3. Share of Enrollments in Private Schools (Primary and Secondary Enrollments)

% enrollment in private schools70

60 __________________________________-____

50 -------------------------------

40 ------ ---------

30 - ---------- - -

20 -* - -

10 -

Bra2il Chil Mexico Cad Kenya Nigeda India Indoneuia Thailnd

| Primary U Secondary

Source: James, Estelle (1991) PublicPrivate Mix of Education Services

We will return to a discussion of the relative effectiveness of some private schools. Our point here issimply that the efficacy of policies that seek to adjust the size and functions of secondary

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education-toward serving nationwide interests-will increasingly be constrained as nongovernnentschools expand and detach from state regulation.

DOES SECONDARY EDUCATION DELIVER INTENDED BENEFITS?

A3.25 When educational policies are debated-attempting to position secondary education moreeffectively-we would assume that the contemplated changes will yield additional economic or socialbenefits. When government constrains the expansion of enrollment in an effort to maintain schoolquality, for instance, it does so in the expectation of higher economic returns. But what empiricalevidence actually exists to substantiate claims that modifying positioning delivers its intended benefits?Overall, the size of the subsector-specifically, its expansion-would stem from a clearer understandingof the functions (or "positionings") that would maximize the intended benefits.

Does Expansion of Secondary Education Boost Economic Growth?

A3.26 This fundamental question underlies policy debates about the optimal size and function of thesubsector. Occupational or economic benefits accruing to individual youths were reviewed briefly inpara. A3.21. That is, secondary schooling may help determine which individual youths experiencegreater success in the labor market or gain greater access to the university. Two additional findingsassociated with individual returns to secondary schooling should be highlighted. First, the rates of returnamong youths who finish secondary school remain over 8 percent in most industrialized and middle-income countries. In developing countries whose secondary-education systems are highly selective-andin which the supply of graduates remains scarce-rates of return can be upward of 20 percent. But wagebenefits from secondary education have been falling; they are already the lowest in industrializedcountries. In the United States, for instance, the private rate-of-return among high school graduates hasdeclined by 40 percent during the past two decades.' Male high school graduates in the United Statescurrently earn 25 percent less than did their fathers 15 years ago (in constant dollars).'1 Although lessdramatic, individual returns from secondary school are falling in many developing countries as laborscarcities ease and wage-sector demand levels off. During the past 15 years, for example, private returnshave fallen from 11 percent to 7 percent in Pakistan; from 18 percent to 12 percent in Venezuela; andfrom 18 percent to 13 percent in Taiwan.<

A3.27 A related issue is whether the growth of secondary education reduces income inequality. Thistopic has received considerable attention by researchers. Current evidence suggests that during earlyperiods of secondary expansion, incremental enrollment gains have no effect on, or even worsen, thedistribution of cash income among individuals. But during later periods, as the subsector broadens accessand as the supply of literacy and other skills is distributed among more youths, income inequality beginsto diminish. This latter effect is confounded with the diversity of wage jobs and capital investment acrossdifferent economic sectors.43 The extensive study of income returns among graduates in Kenya andTanzania helps disentangle the independent influence of labor-force composition and school attainmenton income equity. When variation in wage and job structures is held constant, secondary graduates withhigher achievement levels did earn more. The distribution of income in both countries was determinedjointly by the structure of jobs, wages, and secondary-school performance." [Area of Ignorance #5:Yet, as labor structures and capital investment have stagnated in low-income countries during the pasttwo decades, more research is required to understand the specific influence of secondary-school expansionon income inequality.]

A3.28 These empirical findings pertain to how secondary education contributes to the mobility andrelative income of individuals moving through the opportunity structure. But how does the size of thesubsector and its rate of expansion influence national productivity and growthr

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A3.29 To address this issue, researchers have estimated the economic effects of secondary education bystudying longitudinal variation both across nations and within particular countries. Using the formerstrategy, a recent World Bank study found that secondary enrollments in developing countries have beenpositively related to GDP levels during the past three decades-with the important exception of SouthAsian nations, in which an excess supply of graduates may diminish the marginal effects realized fromadditional enrollments.4' A similar study found that economic effects from secondary schooling areattributable more to male, rather than to female, enrollments. This finding may be due to the fact thatfemale enrollments sometimes rise faster than labor demand-especially when customs or formaldiscrimination limit the educational access of young women.' Focusing on variation among sub-Saharan African countries, another recent study found a reciprocal effect between school enrollment andGNP per capita, revealing that declines in family income help explain the static or declining enrollmentsnow observed in several countries.' Cross-national models have been constructed for larger samplesof developing and industrialized countries. Secondary enrollments continue to show positive economiceffects, but only during periods of global economic growth. During worldwide economic slowdowns,secondary education enrollments are not significantly related to GDP levels (for example, during 1929-1950 and 1970-1985). In such eras, enrollments often continue to grow in many countries while capitalinvestment and labor demand slacken, along with declining terms of trade.'

A3.30 Historical studies of economic growth within specific countries are also illustrative of the long-term effects of secondary education. Research on the U.S. economy suggests a curvilinear associationbetween secondary school enrollment and economic growth. When enrollment rates are low (under 30percent) or high (over 70 percent), no association with economic output over time is observable. Butduring the middle years of enrollment expansion (such as the first half of the twentieth century), anassociation with GDP growth is seen, after the independent effects of labor supply, capital investment,and technical innovation are controlled for.' Once the labor force is saturated with adequate numbersof graduates, marginal enrollment increases yield no discernible effect on economic growth.5'

A3.31 Two institutional forces condition the potential link between secondary education and economicgrowth. First, the quality of schooling must be sufficient before economic effects are observable. Thisfinding comes from historical studies of economic growth in both Europe and Latin America.' Second,govermnent economic policies may condition the economic sectors in which secondary education helpspush productivity growth. For example, a recent study found that secondary schooling has contributedto South Korea's economic growth since 1955, but primarily in the agricultural sector, not inmanufacturing. This trend appears to be due to the Korean government's investment in technologicalimprovements in the farm sector; manufactured exports, such as textiles, shoes, and plywood, have notrequired skill improvements.

Does Expansion of Secondary Education Yield Social Benefits?

A3.32 Evidence is scarce on the possible social effects that flow from secondary education. We doknow that under some country conditions secondary schooling: (1) increases the labor-force participationof young women, which likely supports positive maternal practices, including a reduction in birthrates;5 ' and (2) lowers fertility rates by increasing girls' time in school, and, in turn, by raising literacyrates and postponing the age of marriage. More literate mothers (but not necessarily fathers) displaypositive maternal health practices and, over time, invest more heavily in the education of their ownchildren.' Note that the quality of secondary schooling plays a critical role in each of the twoprocesses. Increasing the time that girls and boys spend in school is effective only when instructionsignificantly influences the forms of achievement, beliefs, and skills that are related to these socialoutcomes.-6

23-

Figure 3.4. Secondary Education Effects on Women's Fertility (Fertility Fates by Year of Schooling)

Total fertility rate8

6- ---- _ -----____ _______

4

3-

2-

0Africa Latin America Asia

U 1-3 Years E 4-6 Years M 7+ Years

Source: Schultz, T.P. (1989) Retums to Women's Eduction

A3.33 The most recent world fertility survey focused in part on the fertility effects of different levelsof schooling. Primary schooling, even just three years of attendance, has some effect on reducing fertility(except in parts of Africa). Completing primary school and entering secondary school has stronger effectson actual birth rates and desired family size in all regions (Figure 3.4). These effects are particularlystrong when family planning services are more widely available.'

SUMMARY AND PRIORITY ISSUES

A3.35 Government leaders and donors act incrementally to expand or limit the size of secondaryeducation. The aims and role of the subsector is also is adjusted through policy reforms or evenhaphazard decisions made over time. If these basic issues are to be addressed more explicitly, severalquestions can guide the positioning of secondary education. We offer a preliminary set of questions tospark further discussion:

1. Are secondary schools positioned to produce graduates with skills that have economicutility, or is the subsector's first priority to prepare pupils for higher education or toround off their basic general education?

2. Is the subsector effectively delivering alleged benefits under either agenda: skills orvalues that meet labor demands or which help enhance the social quality of life?

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3. What is the current size of the subsector? What are current levels of unemployment andunderemployment among recent secondary-school graduates? What is the estimated rateof growth in the wage sector?

4. Where do inequities in social and job opportunities exist? Do current forms ofsecondary-school selection and expansion mitigate or reinforce unequal access (felt byyoung women, certain ethnic or language groups, and low-income families)?

5. Have historical rates of growth in the subsector undercut levels of school quality? Docurrent forms of institutional stratification (government-maintained, local self-help, orprivate schools) balance selectivity/quality versus mass-opportunity objectives? Do thesedifferent layers of secondary schools reinforce inequality?

6. Who benefits from private secondary schools? What types of families are served, whatis the quality of different schools, and how do achievement and labor-force outcomes ofprivate-school graduates compare with those of government-school graduates?

A3.36 No magic recipes exist for positioning secondary education more effectively. These six questionsrepresent a beginning set that might enrich the dialogue over policy alternatives. They imply that muchmust still be learned about how the subsector fits into a country context-not only how policymakersclaim it fits, but also what effects actually stem from secondary schooling.

4. ISSUE B: HOW CAN GOVERNMENTS RESPOND TO TILE RISINGDEMAND FOR SECONDARY EDUCATION?

B4.1 Many governments face one salient problem: how to keep pace with the rapidly rising demandfor secondary education. In paragraph 2.12, we summarized recent growth in enrollment rates. Risingdemand, of course, is a function of both population growth and a growing proportion of children whocomplete primary school. The pace of expansion is even more remarkable in light of the acceleratingraw numbers of youths enrolling in secondary schools. Table 4.1 illustrates these trends.

B4.2 Levels of unmet demand for secondary schooling-families trying unsuccessfully to find aplacement for their child-are difficult to estimate precisely. Family demand is constrained bygovermnent control over spaces and by other institutional factors. One way to assess unmet demand isto examine the rates of transition from primary to secondary schools. Figure 4.1 illustrates the widevariation in this key rate of transition among nations. In Malawi, just 7 percent of primary-schoolcompleters find a place at the junior secondary level. The rate is 39 percent in Senegal, 61 percent inChina, and 93 percent in the Philippines.

B4.3 How can governments cope with rising demand? Very few governments can afford to respondfully to the rising popular demand for secondary education. Nor would doing so always by a rationaluse of public resources even if they were plentiful. The unit cost of secondary schooling is quite highin most countries. Thus, if governments are to conserve resources (for basic education) and to protector enhance educational quality, they must attempt to moderate popular demand.

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Table 4.1. Increase in Enrollment, by Country Population Growth

Annual Population Annual Growth in Absolute SecondaryGrowth Rate (%), Secondary Enrollments (%) Enrollments1980-89 1975-88 1988

Argentina 1.4 3.2 1,862,325Bangladesh 2.6 3.3 3,340,120Botswana 3.4 9.1 4,306India 2.1 5.9 49,440.814Malaysia 2.6 3.4 1,432,699Mali 2.5 1.5 66,431Mexico 2.1 6.7 6,865,763Peru 2.3 4.4 1,427,261Tanzania 3.1 4.7 113.546Zimbabwe 3.5 18.7 651,772

Source: UNESCO sawistical ycarbooks. World Bank, World Develooment Report, 1991.

Figure 4.1. Opportunityfor Entering Secondary Education. Transition Ratesfrom Primary > SecondarySchool

% Primary Grads Entering Secondary School100

80 -________________________ _

40 - - *

20 - - ------

0 cen cngo o hin Twtup CA.mbel

Source: Unesco (1991) World Education Report

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B4.4 Yet they must do so in ways that: (1) achieve a more equitable balance between those whobenefit from and those who pay for secondary education (via fees or tax structures); (2) halt the erosionof school quality; and (3) channel demand into high priority, cost-effective streams. We address fourquestions in this section:

* Which govermment or private responses to "excess demand' enhance equity amongsecondary education recipients?

* What alternative, cost-effective forms of secondary school have been devised tocope with rising demand? What are their effects on equitable access to qualityeducation?

* Is a tradeoff between expanding the subsector and reducing quality inevitable?

* Can government control the growth of secondary education effectively? What arethe effects on quality and equity when private schools absorb social demand?

RESPONDING TO SOCIAL DEMAND: CAN POLICY ADJUSTMENTS IMPROVE EQUITY?

Who Benefits from Secondary Education?

B4.5 Surprisingly little evidence is available on the types of families and youths who benefit most.One clear fact is that boys disproportionately gain access to lower-secondary schools relative to girls.How the school and/or home environments shape this key primary-to-secondary transition is not wellunderstood, and several factors seem to be at work. One study from Botswana indicates that examinationscores are the major determinant, not institutional discrimination. That is, girls outperform boys untilthey reach junior-secondary school, yet, at this point, the representation of young women in the senior-secondary level begins to erode.' Family preferences also play a role in many societies. (Earlier webriefly reviewed empirical studies which indicate that children from more affluent familiesdisproportionately gain access to secondary school.) Too, initial evidence from the Philippines andMalaysia suggests that expanding the supply of schools in rural areas does help enhance the equity ofaccess (although the cost of boarding facilities is high). Strategic forms of school construction, includingboarding facilities and single-sex schools for girls, may also boost equity between the genders, butprobably at a higher unit cost.5 Overall, however, we have much to learn about the relative influenceof family background versus institutional practices (exams or selection processes) on who benefits fromsecondary education. [Area of Ignorance #6: Much is to be learned about how family and institutionalfactors operate among different countries and secondary-school systems (varying in their size, selectivity,tracks, and quality).]

Who Pays for Secondary Education?

B4.6 We know even less about this important question. Initial policy adjustment programs seek to raisecost-recovery in the secondary-education subsector by increasing tuitions and fees, reducing subsidies forboarding facilities, and stinting on some instructional materials.60 These measures are based on theassumption that most families are able to afford any cost increases, and that the cost constraint will notseverely slow social demand.6' Very little longitudinal evidence is available, however, on the equityeffects of such increases in private costs. We also lnow very little about social groups who supportsecondary education via a regressive or progressive tax structure, relative to who benefits. In somecountries, working-class families provide substantial tax support for high-quality schools from which their

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children rarely benefit.' Focusing only on those who gain access to secondary schools mayunderestimate the true level of inequality in the provision of education.

RESPONDING TO SOCIAL DEMAND: STRATIFIED STREAMS AND ALTERNATIVEINSTITUTIONS

B4.7 One way that many governments respond to social demand is to break secondary-educationsystems down into different streams or types of schools. This policy option is driven by two concerns.First, higher-quality secondary schools are often protected by, even incorporated into, a "government-maintained' segment of the overall system. Second, public resources often are insufficient to expand thenumber of school places at traditional unit-cost levels. Thus, rising social demand is absorbed throughthe expansion of low-cost secondary schools or less-formalized programs (such as, correspondence ordistance-education schemes). Until the 1960s, European governments similarly protected the fewsecondary schools which served more elite groups.63

B4.8 Earlier, we cited work on Kenya's three-tiered secondary-education system (para. A3.22).Evidence is quite clear that girls overall and children from poorer families disproportionately enroll inthe harambee community schools; males and relatively more affluent families benefit from the higher-quality government-maintained secondary schools. Conversely, evidence from Nigeria and India suggeststhat some local self-help schools and innovative structures (such as night schools) may provide access togirls and rural youths who are unlikely to enter conventional institutions.6' And other low-costprograms are yielding more equitable effects, whereby the achievement levels of their pupils areapproaching those of pupils enrolled in high-cost schools. Distance-education programs in both Malawiand Thailand report that over one-third of their students eventually graduate (with at least a juniorcertificate). This graduation rate is low, but in some cases their cost-effectiveness is actually higher, asmeasured by the average amount of resources required to graduate one pupil.'

B4.9 The dilemma facing some governments is whether to reduce the allocation of resources to high-quality secondary schools in order to equalize the distribution of resources across stratified schools andfamily beneficiaries, or whether to maintain reasonably high quality in the favored share of secondaryschools. The former strategy contradicts existing evidence which suggests that the quality of secondaryschooling helps determine economic (and perhaps social) benefits. The latter strategy reinforces existingsocial stratification, to the extent that family background is driving who gets into secondary school.[Area of Ignorance #7: We must learn much more about the cost-effectiveness of how low-cost forms ofsecondary education effect actual achievement levels.]

B4. 10 Policy adjustments can respond to social demand, advance equity, and impede the erosion ofquality. For example, spending policies often subsidize middle-class families by providing boardingfacilities in urban secondary schools For these pupils, little evidence is available to suggest that boardingfacilities lead to higher levels of achievement.61 Resources could be used more cost-effectively bypricing boarding privileges more appropriately and by opening up spaces for day students (Bank policyprograms with governments in Malawi and Senegal encourage such shifts).' Secondary schools areoften rich with other symbols of educational quality: low pupil:teacher ratios, high-priced instructionalmaterials, and expensive science labs. We must know more about whether such inputs are actuallyrelated to achievement. If they are not, they can be reconfigured to generate cost-savings-savings thatcan be allocated to additional school spaces or that help equalize the distribution of quality.

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TRENDS IN THE QUALITY OF SECONDARY SCHOOLS: A TRADEOFF WITH EXPANSION?

B4. 11 The low quality of primary schools in many developing countries is well known. But is qualitya problem overall within secondary schools? We have already seen that pupil:teacher ratios are quite lowin many secondary systems. Even low-income countries have successfully maintained an elite layer ofhigh-quality secondary schools. [Area of Ignorance #8: A pressing issue is how quality and itscomponents (per-pupil spending levels, the quality of teachers, and instructional materials) are distributedamong different schools. Few data are available-even on per-pupil spending levels-across differentforms of secondary schooling, or between the public and private sectors.] Evidence is available tosuggest that the distribution of key quality elements is uneven. For example, the quality of teaching maybe low even when schools have a sufficient supply of instructional materials.'

Are Expanding Enrollments Eroding School Quality?

B4. 12 One common measure of educational quality is spending per pupil. (The few studies that areavailable do show a positive relationship between per-pupil expenditures and actual levels of achievement,after they controlled for the influence of family background.) Comparisons of per-pupil spending acrosscountries and over time do suffer from validity problems.9' Yet simple comparisons remain informative.

Protecting Secondary Education Spending

B4.13 Despite hard economic times for many countries during over the 1980s, the subsector's budgethas been well protected (unlike primary education). As shown in Figure 4.2, real spending persecondary-school teacher (for illustrative countries) has remained constant or has increased since 1975.This analysis should be completed for a broader set of nations. But the sharp erosion in per-teacherspending at the primary-education level (in low-income countries) is not observed at the secondary level.Much of the subsector's budget remains discretionary-that is, not tied to teacher salaries. The share ofspending not going to teachers (but allocated instead to student housing, administration, the maintenanceof facilities, and instructional materials) does vary greatly among countries (Figure 4.3). And note thatsecondary-school spending per pupil has traditionally been higher than for primary-school pupils.Differentials in unit costs between the two subsectors are substantial in some countries (Figure 4.4)

B4.13 A recent study of 89 countries found that from 1960 to 1980, secondary-school spending hasdeclined in countries whose fertility rates are moderate to high. On average, for each 10 percent increasein the size of the (secondary) school-age cohort, per-pupil spending was 17 percent less (driven by risingpupil:teacher ratios). High fertility rates also cut into average salary levels, as the total salary bill failedto keep pace with the hiring of new teachers necessary to cover the growth in enrollment. In short,traditional govermnent controls on the supply of secondary-school placements were stretched by risingchild populations and social demand."

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Figure 4.2. Ozange in Recurrent Real Spending per Teacher(Index = 100 for 1975-78 period)

Real spending index800

600…-- - - - - - - - - -- -

400…-- - - - - -- - - - - -

200 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -_-

0Botswana Zimbabwe Mal malaysia Bangladesh

I0 1975-78 - 1988 -

Source: Unesco daza. Note: Spending figures adjustad by World Tables priceimdcx. Hyper-inflation in Latin America precludes suchcalculations. Currency changes over the period may distort figures in Bangladesh and Malaysia.

Figure 4.3. Teacher Wage Bill as Share of Recurrent Spending

% of total subsector spending100

0o ------ ---…---- ------- ----

40 ---- --

20

20

01975-78 01988

Source: Unesco daat

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Figure 4.4. Per Pupil Spending on Primary and Secondary Education. Illustrative Countries, 1988

Recurrent Spending as % of GNP Per Capita1.6

1.4 - ------------- --------------------------

1.2 - ------------- --------------------------

1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -1…

0.8 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

0.6 - l - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

0.4 - -- - - - - - -- - - - - -

0.2 l -- -_-__ __ __ __ __

0 U da Malaysia kisUn razil Pu V

I | Primary Education * Secondary Education

Source: Unesco (1991) World Education Report

CAN GOVERNMENT CONTROL DEMAND FOR SECONDARY EDUCATION?

B4. 14 Designers of policy programs often assume that the central state can influence the level of familydemand for secondary education. Based on their European traditions, colonial regimes closely controlledthe supply and the quality of secondary schools. Most postcolonial governments have retained centralcontrol of government-maintained schools, although the proportionate size of this type of secondaryschool is shrinking in many countries. Where decentralization schemes are delegating more authority toprovincial governments, or where private education is being deregulated, the center's influence overschool supply will likely diminish.

B4. 15 Two empirical questions are prompted by these trends: (1) What is the Government's influenceon school expansion relative to other economic and institutional forces (emanating from firms, technicalchange, families, and competition among religious and ethnic groups)? Considerable historical evidenceis now available on this question from many different countries; and (2) [Area of Ignorance #9: Whenthe capacity of the central government to moderate demand or shape educational quality declines, whatis its effects on educational equity and effectiveness at the local level? Very little evidence is availableon this issue-a critical one if we seriously believe that public policies make a difference.]

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When Can Government Effectively Influence the Pace of School Expansion?

B4. 16 Under certain conditions, central states have been able to hasten or limit the growth of secondaryeducation. Government can address a variety of constraints that limit a family's capacity to enroll itschildren in secondary school-providing more (or fewer) school placements and teachers, reducing (orincreasing) private costs, or manipulating opportunity costs by regulating youth employment. The centralstate also can influence family preferences for more schooling by legitimating formal secondary educationas the higher-status path along which youths should travel. Postcolonial labor markets have beendominated by employment in government, white-collar, and semiskilled commercial jobs-forms of workthat government explicitly links to secondary education. And the government of many developingcountries affects the labor structure by encouraging growth in public-sector employment, raw commodityexports, and urban forms of work in general.7 '

Government's Limited Innuence Over Social Demand

B4.17 Other economic and institutional forces frequently counteract the state's attempts to alter theexpansion of secondary-school enrollment. The influence of these forces depends on the history of centralstate control and on contemporary constraints facing government itself. For instance, where churchesor municipal councils have operated secondary schools under loose central regulations, enrollment willlikely grow with fewer political constraints. Four major external forces have historically influencedsecondary enrollment levels:

Family economy, opportunity costs, and social commitments. Families with higherincomes generally demand more schooling. Some important exceptions exist:where farms are particularly productive or labor demand in manufacturing pullsyouths out of school. In both cases, the opportunity cost of staying in school is toohigh.' Opportunity costs and labor roles partially reflect socially constructedpreferences-for instance, the 'social cost' of having a daughter with too muchschooling.

* Labor demands and technological change in the wage sector. Proponents of humancapital models assume that technological change and the demand for more highlyskilled workers drive family decision-making and enrollment growth. During earlyperiods of commercial expansion (when secondary enrollment rates were typicallylow in the West), technological change did appear to spur family demand forsecondary education.' But when technological changes lag behind, the creationof low-skilled trade and factory jobs suppresses enrollment growth, as discussedearlier. Later, when entry into secondary school became a normative path formiddle-class youths, fluctuations in aggregate labor demand appeared to hold littleinfluence on expressed demand.7'

* Competition among social groups. Under some conditions, competition for jobsamong religious or ethnic groups will contribute to enrollment growth. Thispattern can be observed in parts of Africa and south Asia, where government andIslamic schools vie for students. The central state may support, or simply beunable to regulate enrollment in, Koranic schools or more secularized Islamicschools.' The same competitive process exists where Catholic or minority-language groups seek to expand enrollment in their own schools, independent ofgovernment controls. Especially when government can afford only a limited

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number of secondary-school placements, churches and other groups, competing forwage jobs and social status, are likely to build their own schools.

* The school institution. Not surprisingly the strongest predictor of secondary schoolenrollment is growth in enrollment in primary schools. The spread of basiceducation sparks greater popular demand for secondary schooling through twoimportant processes. First, as primary-school enrollment becomes universal, aschool-leaving certificate has little value in the job market. A junior-secondarycertificate becomes the more discriminating credential. Second, the educationallevels of parents drives intergenerational preferences for more schooling,independent of fluctuations in labor demand and economic forces.?6 Thus, moresecondary schooling contributes to the job-marketability and the social status ofyoung graduates.

Does Popular Demand Always Outpace Secondary-School Supply?

B4.18 During the past decade, social demand for secondary schooling appears to be faltering in somecases. In parts of Indonesia and Mali, for instance, enrollment rates have leveled off or have declinedin absolute numbers. In east Asia, where the labor demand for youths has grown substantially in certainurban areas, the opportunity cost of staying in secondary school has become quite high. The oppositesituation exists in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, where the number of wage-sector jobs has shrunk. Inmore typical cases, the actual level of the 'pent up" demand for secondary schooling is difficult toestimate. Government may closely control the number of Form 1 spaces, thereby dashing the hopes offamilies of getting their child into secondary school. Additional research would support better estimatesof the levels of excess demand.

SUMMARY AND PRIORITY ISSUES

B4.19 Patterns of social demand for secondary schooling vary across regions and countries. Whereenrollment rates are low and fertility rates are high, popular demand will continue to climb. We arebeginning to learn about how different governments are responding to social demand-and how theseresponses shape equity and quality effects. Whether the central government is likely to moderate orhasten the growth in enrollment effectively is an open question. Historical evidence suggests that the statecan play a strong role, but only when economic and other institutional forces are relatively weak. Effortsto decentralize or privatize secondary education will likely weaken central authority to shape the pace ofenrollment growth, to address inequities in spending and finance, and to raise educational quality. Thus,the question is: along what functions and lines of control should government decentralize?

5. ISSUE C: HOW CAN SCHOOILS BE ORGANIZED EFFECTIVELYTO RAISE ACHIEVEMENT AMONG PUPILS?

C5. 1 Governments and donors spend much time trying to sharpen the functions of secondary educationand responding to burgeoning levels of social demand. Endless debates about the appropriate size of thesubsector continue (see Section III). The third set of issues receives surprising little attention: How canwe raise pupils' levels of achievement? Recent analyses reveal that the actual achievement levels ofyouths do indeed lead to positive economic and social outcomes, as reviewed earlier. But what localfactors within schools and families contribute to greater learning? How can central Government organize,or provide incentives for, effective schools? Significant evidence for primary schools is accumulating

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on these two issues.77 But we are just beginning to understand how local factors and organizationalpractices from the center can enhance the effectiveness of secondary schools.

C5.2 These issues pertain to constraints that operate at two different organizational levels. First, wediscuss factors and processes which unfold locally-within classrooms, schools, local families, orcommunities. Second, we discuss how central policies and professional leaders might enhance theperformance of local teachers and pupils more effectively. Each level consists of specific questions:

Organizational Level 1: Classrooms, Schools, and Families

* What school factors contribute to effective schools, classrooms, and teachers?What investment strategies are more likely to yield gains in the achievement ofpupils?

* How can teaching practices be improved (in a manner sensitive to socializationpreferences at the local level)? How can schools be organized more effectively toenhance the professional commitment of teachers?

* How can the teaching of math and science be improved cost-effectively? Whatform of curricula in these areas is optimal (under different country contexts)?

* Should secondary schools serve a predominately urban agenda? Do discontinuitiesbetween home and school constrain achievement among pupils?

Organizational Level 2: Central Policies and Institutions

How can managerial improvements at the center improve the quality andeffectiveness of local schools? How can incentives for local headmasters andteachers be strengthened? How might threads of decentralization yield gains inpupil achievement and advance equity?

* How can the central government encourage local accountability and parentalchoice? Are private and single-gender schools more effective, and what are theorganizational forces that influence achievement advantages?

* Do national examinations effectively advance the priority functions of secondaryeducation-in terms of what is learned and how it is achieved within localclassrooms? How can student selection processes and exams provide moreappropriate incentives for stronger performance among teachers and pupils?

* What are the major cost elements of secondary education? How can costs becontained without depressing achievement among pupils? What are recent trendsin teacher salary levels?

ORGANIZATIONAL LEVEL 1: Raising the Effectiveness of Schools and Classrooms

C5.3 What Investments Increase the Achievement of Secondary School Pupils? Much evidencehas accumulated on school- and classroom-related factors that consistently raise pupil achievement withinprimary schools. One review found that, in general, the same types of inputs and human

-34 -

resources-those associated directly with classroom instruction-are also related to achievement insecondary schools: textbooks, exercise books, the length of the instructional program, and the social-class background, total years of schooling, and language proficiency of teachers. Symbols ofquality-teacher salaries, the quality of facilities, and the presence of science labs-are not consistentlyrelated to greater achievement.' Effective inputs, of course, hold more or less influence onachievement, depending upon specific country contexts. And where selection into secondary school isdriven by the social class of adolescents, or where the subsector has highly stratified streams, marginalimprovements in, for example, instructional materials may have little effect on achievement.'

C5.4 Recent research further supports the basic finding that inputs directly linked to classroominstruction tend to raise achievement levels. Current work in Ghana, for instance, show that pupils dobetter in middle schools that contain more chalkboards (after a variety of pupil background variables andother school inputs are controlled for). The Ghana study also disentangles those facets of school qualitythat encourage parents to keep their children in school for more years, versus those indicators that arerelated to greater achievement. For instance, the quality of classroom facilities is related to length ofschool attendance among youths, but not to achievement levels (within any one year). A Zimbabwe studyconfirmed that textbooks, teacher training, and the stability of the school's staff are related to greaterachievement among pupils. These influential elements of quality vary systematically according to thestatus and (widely varying) levels of government financing among different types of secondary schools.The IEA "classroom environment study" provides rich data on the pedagogical practices of teachers inNigeria, the Republic of Korea, and Thailand. Teacher-centered routines tend to dominate classroom life.More complex forms of instruction (for example, instructional grqups, lateral discussions among students,or analytic exercises) are rarely observed.'

C5.5 Teaching Practices and Achievement. Researchers are beginning to focus on the sources ofvariability in classroom teaching, especially why some teachers construct more complex pedagogicalroutines-by using a variety of instructional tools, asking questions more frequently, and structuring morediverse ways in which pupils interact with material and each other."1 In general, the pedagogical scriptsof teachers in North American and European secondary schools are not particularly complex. Initialcomparative work indicates that teachers' script may even more routinized and simple, at least in partsof east Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.' Conversely, natural variation does exist among teachers withinparticular countries. One investigation in Nigeria, for instance, focused on the patterns of verbalinteraction between Form 3 pupils and teachers. Learning gains were higher among students whoseteachers asked recall and probing (discussion) questions more frequently. Lecturing at youths wasnegatively correlated with achievement." One cross-national review documents variation in teachingpractices within countries, and finds that limited preservice training helps boost pupil achievement withinsecondary schools.'3 A major policy issue is how this variation in teaching practices can be builtupon-to encourage teachers to reflect critically on their own routines. [Area of Ignorance #10: Muchwork remains on building our understanding of how secondary-school teachers go about their work insideclassrooms.]

C5.6 Are Teachers Mobilizing Instructional Materials? Spending on new curricular and instructionalmaterials is a major cost component of secondary education. Based in part on convincing research thatshows the effects of textbooks, governments and donors have increased investments in basic materials.But do teachers actually use these materials effectively? (We must distinguish between the allocationalefficiency of buying more textbooks and the technical efficiency with which these inputs are actuallyused.) A longitudinal study of Botswana's secondary teachers reveals that their application of textbookmaterial is highly variable and is often unimaginative-for instance, simply guiding sessions of oralrecitation.' Similar evidence comes from a qualitative study of textbook use by Gambian teachers.

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Teachers reported dissatisfaction in the supply available; a few also expressed concern about how thetextbook constrained the range of "legitimate" pedagogical practices.'

C5.7 Social Rules of Classrooms and Curriculum. Evidence from the United States shows that howpupils are grouped in classrooms can significantly influence gains in achievement.' Yet very fewdescriptions exist of how student work is organized inside secondary classrooms. We do know that manyclassrooms in developing countries are not participatory, nor are students actively involved in the lessons.Teachers may demand that pupils recall factual information but rarely encourage them to think throughmore complex ideas or to tackle applied problems. In science, for instance, evidence from Africa revealshow teachers place priority on memorizing terms in English, rather than on encouraging thecomprehension of actual processes.' Variation among different classrooms is significant, and it maybe driven by differences in subject-matter and curricular traditions (which could be manipulated throughpolicy and project interventions). For instance, one recent study found that pupils were more active insocial studies classrooms, due to more active questioning by teachers relative to math teachers in theirclassrooms.90

C5.8 Classroom Rules and Family Socialization. Project interventions often assume that teachingpractices in developing countries should resemble "effective teaching' in the West. It is possible that theWestern school-an institutional form so pervasive and insular-can adopt universally effectivepedagogical practices. But indigenous forms of socialization-and the expected social behavior ofteachers and children-likely interact with the classroom's own norms to shape achievement. Recentevidence from Japan, for example, shows that middle-school teachers devote considerably more time tolecturing at the entire class relative to teachers in the United States who assign more group work andsilent exercises by individual students. Note that, in Japan, 'lecturing' often involves a greater varietyof manipulative exercises and engaging applications than in North America. Yet, within the Japanesecultural context, the Japanese form of lecturing yields greater achievement than the more varied socialrules applied by North American teachers." This difference may be explained in part by the traditional,more hierarchical roles between adults and children in Japan relative to those in the United States.

C5.9 The convergence of or dissonance between the classroom's social rules and those of the family(or peer group) also help explain which youths persist throughout secondary school and achieve at higherlevels. In industrialized countries, much is known about how peer groups develop norms that act incontradiction to the school's official norms and rewards.' [Area of Ignorance #11: We knowsurprisingly little in developing countries about how such external cultural influences (from family orpeers) encourage many youths to leave school.) We do know that labor demands and social obligationspull youths out of secondary school, including parents' expectations that teenage children will contributeto cash earnings, farm production, and the care of younger siblings, or become married. We know littleabout how adjustments in the form or content of the conventional secondary school might counteract thesecontradictionsY.

C5. 10 Gender Differences, Classroom Rules, and Family Socalization. Sharp cultural conflicts oftenoccur for young women who are attempting to complete secondary school. The economic and socialopportunity costs of staying in school can be quite high. Young women are often expected to contributeto the household economy, or to begin their own families. [Area of Ignorance #12: In many countries,the level of achievement and school completion among girls begins to decline during the junior-secondaryyears. We know little about the relative influence of family and school practices in explaining thismarked decline in school performance relative to boys. We do know that curricular materials oftenportray females in traditional, subordinate roles." Initial empirical evidence from the United Statessuggests that male students speak out in class and are asked questions by the teacher more frequently(including queries of greater complexity).' In developing countries, girls do at times outperform boys

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in language subjects, given the greater proportion of female teachers. Female students may perceive thatthese subjects are more legitimate settings for higher achievement, modeling their performance after theirfemale teachers.96

How Can Teachers' Skills and Professional Commitment Be Enhanced?

C5. 11 Who Enters Secondary Teaching? Very little is known about the backgrounds, aspirations, andmotivational foundations of young persons who become secondary-school teachers. Some evidence alongthese lines is available for primary school teachers.'' [Area of Ignorance #13: Where secondary-education systems contain different streams and types of schools, the backgrounds and qualifications ofteachers can vary substantially. Other than government numbers on 'unqualified' teachers" or subjectspecialists, even basic demographic information or more detailed data on skill levels is lacking.'

C5.12 How Are Secondary School Teachers Selected and Socialized? In many countries, teachingat the secondary level still holds significant status and pays a good salary. Little is known whether thesebasic incentives are effective at attracting strong graduates into the teaching occupation. We could findno country studies that have examined how the pool of applicants to teacher-training programs is changingover time. At the primary level, available data suggest that teaching is not the first choice of occupationamong new teacher-candidates. Is this situation the same for secondary graduates or university studentswho decide to enter secondary-level teaching? We do know that the preservice training of secondaryschool teachers is very expensive, since it usually involves university-level courses. But do theseexpensive increments of training generate stronger pedagogical skills?'

C5. 13 Incentives to Raise Professional Commitment. [Area of Ignorance #14: The motivation andcommitment of teachers likely vary across different types of secondary schools-depending on theschool's level of resources, the types of children it serves, and its cohesion and professional norms.Little evidence is available on the factors that motivate secondary-school teachers.] Work at the primary-school level suggests that the following incentives are important determinants of professional commitment:

e Salaries are eroding in some countries, particularly in south Asia and Sub-SaharanAfrica. Again, cross-national data on secondary-school teachers are lacking, andsalary levels vary within countries according to the type of school and stream. Insome nations, the salaries of secondary-school teachers have not declined in realterms-certainly not to the extent felt by primary-school teachers (see data inFigure 4.2 in Section 4).

* Working conditions in high-quality secondary schools are quite good. In otherschools, teachers report little support from headmasters and colleagues, the absenceof inservice training to upgrade their skills, and erratic supplies of instructionalmaterials.l' Moves to decentralize education (for example, in China) or toprivatize education call into question whether moving authority downward willspark stronger strategies for improving working conditions within schools.

* Despite their status, secondary-school teachers typically report low feelings ofefficacy or influence over their work. Teachers may be isolated in separatedepartments; they may be required to follow the curriculum prescribed by nationalsyllabi and exams; and discussion about how teaching practices can be improvedor how knowledge of subject specialty can be expanded is rare. One recent surveyof teachers in eight countries found mixed levels of morale; most felt little controlover their work. Less than half of all teachers surveyed said that they were

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important actors in deciding whether students advanced through grade levels. Onlyone-quarter reported that they had significant influence over what they themselvestaught.10'

C5.14 Signs that teacher morale is low or mixed are plentiful in many countries. Two constraints,however, limit the capacity of central agencies to attack low motivation and commitment. First, afterteacher salaries, few recurrent resources are available to reward higher performance by meritoriousteachers. Central ministries often have little experience in allowing local headmasters to establishincentives for outstanding teaching. We return to whether accountability and incentives might be moreeffective when "allocated" by local actors, including parents.

C5.15 Second, the link between the motivation of teachers and their teaching behavior is not altogetherclear. Alleged associations between higher salaries and stronger pedagogical practices has rarely beenevidenced (except to the extent that teachers with more schooling, and thus who are usually higher paid,tend to be more effective). A recent study of 350 secondary teachers in Botswana found that their overalljob satisfaction increased if they received more supervision and feedback from their headmaster, greaterencouragement from parents and the community, and additional inservice training. But none of thesefactors actually led to pedagogical practices that differed from those of teachers who were less satisfiedwith their work."a

Teaching Science and Mathematics: The Search for Cost-Effective Strategies

C5.16 Educators have long seen science and mathematics instruction as essential curricular elements.The World Bank recently completed a major study of science instruction in developing countries,including an examination of alternative curricular forms and their relative costs.l" The study concludesby urging governments and donors to move cautiously before increasing spending on science instruction.As overall demand for secondary education grows, spending on science laboratories, materials, andteacher training also rise. The new Bank study puts forward several important arguments:

* No country has achieved "basic science literacy" among all students. Manycountries attempt to spread scientific knowledge to secondary-school pupils withouta careful consideration of the content, priorities, and costs of these programs.

* If the goal is to achieve a common understanding of scientific or technologicalapproaches to problem-solving, effective, low-cost materials can be designed toavoid the unnecessary expense of single-purpose classroom laboratories.

* Managerial issues associated with designing, producing, and distributing complexscience materials are often addressed inadequately by education ministries anddonors.

* Science teachers often are ill-prepared for delivering the curricular packageintended by well-intentioned designers. Experimental and discovery elements ofcurricula (which are expensive) are often swamped by conventional lectures andpedagogical routines when teachers find the curriculum too complex.

C5.17 Science curricula can serve important functions: providing students with an empirical approachfor problem-solving; acquainting them with innovations associated with agricultural and ruraldevelopment; sensitizing them to pressing problems in their natural environment and to the fragileecological balance surrounding them; or introducing them to novel social practices pertaining to health,

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nutrition, and family planning. The World Bank study discusses strategies for how governments, privateeducators, and donors can examine and assess these alternative objectives, and then design realistic andcost-effective instructional strategies.

C5. 18 Less research has been undertaken on how nathematics instruction unfolds in classrooms. Initialevidence suggests that math teachers are better trained and display more complex pedagogical practices,encouraging student exercises, the manipulation of material contained in textbooks, and practical problem-solving." As with science, debate persists about whether math courses should emphasize academicobjectives (linked to national examinations) or be brought into line with the practical problems facingyoung adults. Gender inequities associated with the study of math and science in secondary schools arecommon. How this problem can be addressed effectively-via policy or project interventions-has yetbeen resolved."05 To date, the antecedent issue-how girls can be kept in schools-has eclipsed studiesof how courses of study can be pursued equitably by female and male pupils (in turn, enhancinguniversity and labor-force outcomes for young women).

ORGANIZATIONAL LEVEL 2: POLICIES AND MANAGERIAL STRATEGIES FORENHANCING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF SCHOOLS

C5.19 Many teachers receive immediate professional feedback from their headmaster or schoolcolleagues. These networks of encouragement must be built among teachers and the school-levelmanagers with whom they interact each day. Yet teachers and headmasters work within a broaderorganizational structure-often mechanical institutional pressures that emphasize teaching subject matterspecific to the national exam, following routinized teaching scripts, and abiding by the dictates of schoolinspectors and district education officers. Whether this broader organizational structure can encourageteachers to reflect on how they teach, and stimulate them to construct more engaging forms of pedagogy,remains an open question.

C5.20 In both industrialized and developing countries political and civic leaders increasingly argue thatthis bureaucratic school structure rarely empowers local headmasters or prompts teachers to improve theirpractices. Thus, recent debate has focused on whether central management should be improved orwhether schools should be decentralized into free markets of public and private schools.

Central Management Improvements

C5.21 Organizational Supports for School improvement. Studies of the effectiveness of local schoolsoften point to organizational forces that operate beyond individual schools: (1) how headmasters arechosen and how their performance is evaluated; (2) the role of school inspectors, either as coaches forschool improvement or as traditional monitors of school records and inputs; (3) the effectiveness withwhich essential instructional materials, staff positions, and paychecks are distributed to schools; (4) thefrequency of staff turnover, especially key teachers who build and reinforce a feeling of camaraderie overtime; and (5) whether paths for professional advancement are clear and supported by ongoing trainingprograms."*

C5.22 Organizing Infrastructure of Schools at the Central and Local Levels. The organizationalsupports to improve schools, shaped by different levels of the system, may help enhance the motivationand performance of teachers. But what are the actual effects of these organizational supports on theachievement of students? Clear cases in which this basic infrastructure breaks down are available, whereteachers fail to show up for work, headmasters spend much time going to town in search of books andsearching for paychecks. [Area of Ignorance #15: Whether infrastructures would be strengthened by

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decentralization or privatization remains a large question uninformed by evidence.] We do know thatreligious schools, infused with common values and commitments among staff members and parents, oftenconstruct strong local infrastructures. Whether these models can be replicated across other forms ofnongovernment schooling is unknown; empirical evidence on these related issues is scarce in bothindustrialized and developing countries.

C5.23 National Exams as a Manipulable Policy Lever? Two centralized mechanisms have long beentools for improving schools: national syllabi and examinations. Even governments that advocateprivatization argue that centralized exams can play a strong role in: (1) unifying (some claim,homogenizing) the curriculum; and (2) providing feedback to schools and teachers on their measurableperformance. Notably, current school reform initiatives in the England and the United States push fordecentralizing school inputs while advocating a stronger centralization of examinations and a "corecurriculum." The strategy is to push for central uniformity of achievement outcomes, while maximizinglocal choice about how school inputs are organized.

C5.24 In developing countries, many governments are attacking several issues associated with nationalexaminations. These efforts seek to: (1) encourage teachers to address higher-order cognitive skills, notjust rote memorization; (2) mitigate biases in the content of exams which work against language-minoritygroups; (3) move beyond assessing knowledge that is applicable only to urban settings; and (4) improvethe efficiency with which exams are administered, while still encompassing a range of cognitive skills.Some governments, such as China, are striving to alter conventional forms of their exams, or todecentralize assessment responsibilities to local education agencies. National examinations are oftendeveloped anew each year. Thus, exam results cannot be used as an assessment tool, but merely, as istypical, as a selection device. Few governments can then determine with any technical validity how welllocal schools and teachers are doing from year to year. An enormous level of technical assistance in theassessment field is necessary.Y"

C5.25 Benefits from Centralized Reform Efforts? Initiatives to boost the effectiveness of schoolsare usually mounted by central agencies. Before jumping to decentralized remedies as the new panacea,we might take stock of empirical evidence about the effects of centralized efforts:'

Building suppornive local organizations for teachers. Several countries haveundertaken centrally guided efforts to establish, for instance, school clusters. Theextent to which school-cluster arrangements actually control budget resources, offertraining and information-exchange among teachers, and involve parents varies. Theinspectorates of some countries also are attempting to emphasize a "pedagogicalcounselor' role. West African countries have a long history with the strength andlimitations of this approach to local support. Given the infrequency of professionalinservice training for teachers (in public and private sectors), some form ofcollaboration among proximate schools is desirable. What is the central state's rolein helping organize these forms of professional support?'°

Length of instructional program and the intended curriculum. Recent researchsuggests that Japanese children outperform pupils (in math) in other countries dueto: (1) a longer school year; and (2) a centrally "controlled' curriculum whichrequires that Japanese teachers cover more topics than those offered in secondary

This section is greatly informed by David P. Baker's review of organizational issues, 'Effective SecondaryEducation: What Is Possible in Developing Countries?' Catholic University, Washington, D.C., 1991.

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schools in Europe and the United States. Japanese teachers appear to useinstructional time more effectively, perhaps yielding stronger achievement effectsthan gains attributed specifically to the gross length of the school year. U.S.children learn about the same share of what is taught as do Japanese children. U.S.teachers simply cover much less material. Beyond Japan, more centralizededucational systems in general require that more topics (at least in mathematics) becovered.109

* The control of selection points and sorting. Several countries are beginning toreduce the number of selection points. For instance, the incorporation of junior-secondary forms into the basic education cycle-accompanied by the eliminationof the primary-school leaving exam-sharply increases the transition rate betweenprimary and secondary school. Similarly, several countries have abolished thejunior certificate exam. Recent work suggests that movement away from thesesequential selection points may enhance the involvement of parents in theirchildren's school work, since progress through school is tied less to these selectionhurdles."'

* Equitable distribution of achievement. By controlling the national curriculum,topics and pace of instruction, and selection processes, centralized systems cantheoretically control large variations in achievement. Work from Japan confirmsthis claim, although similar achievement levels among children can also beattributed to a cultural tradition of encouraging the enhancement of groupperformance (as opposed to Western emphasis on individualistic competition amongstudents), not caused simply by central policy."'

- Links between labor demand and secondary education. Where access to wage laboris more accessible among young women, female pupils tend to display higher levelsof educational attaimment. In addition, unequal school achievement in mathematicsis related to gender inequities in the labor structure. Where access to technical jobsis not gender-biased, female pupils are represented more adequately in math courses(in lhailand, for example).112 Central states can influence labor rules in wayswhich reduce gender inequities. It appears that such measures could directlyinfluence girls' levels of school attainment.

C5.26 Conversely, opponents of central regulation argue that state controls will merely erode themotivation of teachers, lower achievement among pupils, and limit the ability of parents to influence theirlocal schools. We now discuss local choice, beginning with this question: Do private schools, variouslydefined, yield greater achievement among pupils than public schools, and why?

Private and Single-Gender Schools: More Effective Forms of Secondary Education?

C5.27 Rising disaffection with uniform and homogenous secondary schools has sparked interest in moreinnovative, less secular forms of schooling. The budgetary constraints of many central governments havekindled this interest further. The current debate focuses on whether private or single-gender schools(government or private) are more effective at increasing student achievement overall or the achievementof certain groups (working-class or female pupils). Early evidence from the United States and Australiasuggests that certain private schools may be more effective, after the effects of pupils' family backgroundare controlled for. For Catholic schools in the United States, the magnitudes of these differences are notlarge, in part because pupils learn very little overall in many secondary schools."3 Findings on

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absolute gains in achievement in some sets of private and single-gender schools in some developingcountries are more encouraging.

C5.28 Variation in the Quality of Private Schools. Defining a single "private school subsector" isproblematic in most countries, since the pupils served and the quality of education provided bynongovernment schools often vary dramatically. Nongovernment schools in Tanzania, for example,include village-built "bush schools," long-standing church academies, and even schools started bymunicipal councils that are not supported by the central government.11' Because access to governmentsecondary schools is limited, a significant private-school subsector has sprouted, serving one-third of allpupils. In Mexico City, private schools whose quality is highly variable serve youths fromcorrespondingly diverse social-class backgrounds.'15 In Colombia, the quality of private secondaryschools is generally lower than the quality of government schools, and serve youths from poorer families.In contrast, the family background of pupils who attend Tanzanian private schools does not differsignificantly."1' [Area of Ignorance #16: Only a few thorough descriptions exist of how the quality andcharacter of nongovernment schools may differ from those of conventional secondary institutions."'In most countries, even basic data on diverse levels of quality and types of students served are scarce.]

C5.29 How Effective are Private Schools in Developing Countries? Evidence is just beginning toemerge to answer this question, including research on primary and secondary schools. For example,focusing on math achievement among junior-secondary pupils in the Dominican Republic, researchersfound that, after differences in youths' entry characteristics are controlled for, students in two types ofprivate schools outperformed government-school pupils. This gap in achievement levels was explainedpartly by the existence of better trained teachers. The major influence stemmed from a peer effect; thatis, especially in elite private schools, classrooms in which individuals had higher average pre-test scoresalso showed higher post-test scores among the pupils (after their family background was controlledfor)."' Following Chile's decision to provide capitation grants to private schools, the number ofprimary and secondary institutions did increase sharply. But the performance of students in these newerprivate schools does not exceed the achievement of government-school pupils, after family backgroundis held constant. Children from poor families actually performed better in public primary schools thandid those who attended private schools. Similar results are reported from Uruguay, suggesting that theprivate sector may provide inferior schooling to children from poorer families."9

C5.30 Less evidence is available on why private schools are sometimes more effective than publicschools. In the United States, we do know that Catholic-school students enroll in more challengingacademic courses than do pupils who attend public schools."2 It also appears that teachers andmanagers in church-sponsored schools share a core set of social values and educational goals (oftenmissing in large secular schools). In turn, teachers report feeling a greater sense of control over theirwork. They more frequently feel that their effort makes a difference in enhancing achievement amongpupils."21 This school-cohesion argument also helps explain why girls sometimes do better in single-gender schools, as found in a recent study of mathematics achievement in Nigeria. In single-genderschools, girls were taught (in mathematics) more frequently by female teachers and held fewer gender-based stereotypes about who does well in math, compared with both boys and girls who attendedcoeducational secondary schools.'1 [Area of Ignorance #17: Future work should more clearly focuson explaining why private or single-gender schools are sometimes more effective and why they are oftentimes not.] Initial findings which show that poor youths perform worse in private schools suggest thatunrestricted growth of low-quality private schools will reinforce social-class inequities.

C5.31 Early research has been undertaken on differences in how central governments subsidize andregulate the private-school sector. Where demand for secondary schooling is high and government supplyis low, private schools often flourish with little or no public subsidies. In middle-income countries, in

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which the costs of instruction and teacher salaries rise along with subsidies for public schools,government grants may be necessary to ensure that private-school prices remain competitive and that atleast minimal standards of quality are maintained. Many developing countries have partially incorporatednongovernment schools by providing teachers or instructional materials, requiring that the schools coverthe national curriculum, and allowing private graduates to sit for national exams.'23

SUMMARY AND PRIORITY ISSUES

C5.32 Issues associated with the educational quality of and the effectiveness of secondary schools aremore complex than those associated with the same characteristics of primary schools. Governments evenin low-income countries, where the quality of primary-schools has eroded during the past decade, haveprotected their high-quality, well-funded secondary schools. The primary issues associated withsecondary education pertain to: (1) highly uneven quality among different layers of public and privateschools; and (2) inequities in who benefits from quality schooling, thereby reinforcing social-classinequality and distorting meritocratic (school and labor-force) incentives. Policy discussions might startat the school level, focusing on the motivation and skills of teachers. Then, moving up from schoolheadmasters to local education offices, and to the central ministry, we must rethink current spendingallocations, including relative spending levels for instructional materials, inservice training and salaryincrements for teachers, and even locally allocated incentives for high-performing teachers. A relatedpolicy question is whether donors should focus greater attention on helping governments deregulate andassist the private subsector, especially when these schools are serving low-income families or groupsunderrepresented in government schools (young women and language minorities). We know much aboutthe types of changes in school-level organization that can spark greater commitment among teachers. Butas the diversity of both government and private secondary schools widens, we have much to learn abouthow the central state's role might be adjusted to enhance improvements in schools at the local level.

6. ISSUE D: EFFECTIVE CENTRAL MANAGEMENT OF THE COSTS OFSECONDARY EDUCATION AND CURRICULAR STREAMS

D6.1 Most public secondary schools are expensive to operate. Teachers command reasonablycompetitive salaries. Instructional materials are in fairly good supply. Facilities-both capital andrecurrent maintenance costs-are substantial, particularly when boarding facilities are subsidized. Thefinal set of issues focuses on how these costs can be contained and how resources can be conserved formore effective investments:

* How can major cost items within secondary education be contained? What trendscharacterize the costs associated with teacher salaries, instructional materials,teacher training, and administration?

* How can high-cost streams and programs be made more effective or reduced in sizewhere disappointing effects do not justify the cost? We focus on preservice teachertraining programs and vocational tracks often contained within the secondarysubsector.

* What is the potential for low-cost, mass tracks, such as distance education and soforth.

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THE COST OF HUMAN RESOURCES

Teacher Salaries

D6.2 This component comprises the major cost item, although it represents a smaller proportion of totalspending than is found in primary education (as shown earlier in Figure 4.4). We have already shownthat total subsector spending per teacher is holding steady (in real terms) in many countries. Thus, thereal earnings of teachers in the subsector are not eroding in general. However, wages are declining insome low-income countries relative to other labor sectors and aggregate earnings. One recent study fromsub-Saharan Africa found that real prices for hiring secondary teachers have fallen in recent years (Figure6.1).124

Administrative Costs

D6.4 This cost component is often higher for secondary education than for primary education. Datafrom the Ministry of Education of Hungary recently revealed that almost one-third of all school staff areadministrators. We have already pointed out that the share of secondary school spending allocated toteacher salaries varies considerably-from just 40 percent in Botswana and Tanzania to over 80 percentin India, Malaysia, and Peru (see Figure 4.3 earlier). This range suggests that expenditures onadministration, materials, and boarding subsidies are considerable. [Area of lgnorance #18: Specific dataon spending for administrative staff are difficult to find, especially for trends over time. Additionalsubsectoral work might focus on this topic, and suggest how these more discretionary resources couldbe more effectively spent at the school level.]

Figure 6.1. Relative Prices of Secondary Teacher (per Teacher Spending), 1960-1980

Current spending per teacher / GNP per adult40 -

0 _ 7 =1960 1965 1970 1975 1980

Tanzania + Cate d'lvoire * Kenya

Algeria Costa Rica Singapore

Source: Schultz, T.P. (1989) School Expenditures and Enrollments

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Efficient Responses to Social Demand

D6.5 Pupil:teacher ratios remain relatively low at the secondary level. Incremental increases wouldyield substantial cost-savings and would not likely diminish achievement levels among pupils (see Figure2.5 earlier). Other cost-effective ways to accommodate increasing enrollment are available. Currentpolicy programs focus, for example, on increasing cost-recovery for boarding facilities. Many countrieshave now moved from traditional practice by admitting "day students" into schools that previously servedonly boarding students. Double-shifting is common at the primary-school level, and declines in pupilachievement have yet been observed."t Little is known about the impact of scholarships for femalepupils.

THE COST OF DIVERSIFIED CURRICULAR STREAMS

D6.6 Diversifying secondary-education curricula remains a tempting reform. It signals to working-classand rural parents that the secondary school is not training exclusively youths to fit urban, white-collarjobs. Yet serious vocationalization of the curriculum is very expensive. Figure 6.2 displays the relativeunit costs of general-academic, agricultural, and technical curricula for five illustrative countries. In allfive cases (for which solid cost data are available) general secondary curricula are the least expensive.Curricular programs that contain industrial or agricultural courses can be 50 percent more expensive perpupil, and the labor-market performance of their graduates is indistinguishable from the performance ofgraduates from general secondary education.

Figure 6.2. Secondary Curnicula: Relative Unit Costs (1980s)

Unit Cost Index250

200…

50

Colombia Tanzania Malaysia Jordan Barbados

L General * Agriculture Industrial

Source: Psacharopoulos, G. (1986). To Vocationalize or Not

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The Quality and Cost-Effectiveness of Vocational Training Within Secondary Schools

D6.7 The World Bank's recent review of vocational training provides further evidence of the high costof diversified secondary and separate vocational schools (serving pupils directly in primary or junior-secondary schools). Rarely have these programs been cost-effective-only when the cost of instructionis kept comparable to academic instruction, when the content of programs responds flexibly to shifts inlabor demand, and when growth in labor demand is sustained over long periods of time. Of course,meeting these conditions is difficult given the institutional rigidities of most vocational programs at thesecondary level.'2I

D6.8 The Bank's analysis concludes with several important policy guidelines: (1) that investment inflexible and skilled workers is important for industrial wage jobs, agriculture, and small-scale enterprises;(2) that both private employers and the public sector should play a role in raising the quality of theworkforce; (3) that, in many cases, training within specific enterprises, financed by private resources,is the most efficient form of human capital investment; and (4) that focusing public investment onimproving the quality of primary and general secondary education is frequently a more cost-effectivestrategy than creating separate vocational tracks.

Making Curricula More Inclusive and Practical

D6.9 Given the high cost of diversifying curricular tracks, governments are searching for ways to makethe content of secondary schooling more 'practical." Attempting to do so is difficult: govermnents mustoften change the visible character of curricular materials (for example, 'prevocational curricula') or moveto clear academic and vocational streams. These demands are particularly acute in the presence of highunderemployment among graduates. [Area of Ignorance #19: Donors have not been well equipped toadvise governments on how curricula can be linked to practical concerns while the costs associated withdiversification are minimized.] This major area is worthy of future analysis and policy dialogue.

HIGH-COST PRESERVICE TEACIIER-TRAINING PROGRAMS

How Effective is Preservice Teacher Training?

D6. 10 Governments and donors spend enormous resources on building and supporting teacher trainingcolleges or on secondary-school programs that prepare pupils for the teaching profession. We assumethat preservice training makes a difference, and that programs are constructed cost-effectively. But theeffectiveness of classroom teachers depends first on a broad range of school-level and institutional factors,not only on the particular skills provided through formnal training. The status of teaching and incentivesmust be sufficient to ensure that capable young persons are attracted to the occupation, that they showup at schools and are committed, and that they are encouraged by school headmasters to improve theirpedagogical practices.

D6.11 Assuming that these contextual conditions are met, is variation in the length and quality ofpreservice training a determinant of the performance of teachers and the achievement of their pupils?Then, if preservice training does make a difference, what type and location of training is most cost-effective? The World Bank's recent study of primary education addressed these two issues in somedepth.2' At the secondary level, these questions pertain to the subsector's own role in preparingprimary school teachers and to how secondary teachers can be trained more effectively.

46 -

D6. 12 Research in several countries indicates that the total length of postprimary schooling attained byteachers is related to their pupils' own achievement. Similarly, the verbal proficiency of teachers isrelated to higher performance among pupils, after the influence of pupil background and school inputsis controlled for. But a discrete effect from the time spent in a teacher training college (as opposed tolonger general secondary schooling) is not consistently observed. Recent work in Zimbabwe, forinstance, found significantly higher levels of achievement among for secondary-school pupils whoseteachers were more highly trained. No such effect was observed in recent studies of junior-secondaryteachers in Botswana and Ghana."' In addition, a richer mix of school inputs (textbooks and teacherguides) sometimes substitute for low levels of training, yielding comparable gains in achievement."2

The High Cost of Preservice Training

D6.13 Teacher training streams must be addressed under any policy effort to contain subsectoral costs.These streams are very expensive. Figure 6.3 illustrates the high recurrent cost of separate preservicetraining programs, as a multiple of general secondary-school costs. For instance, the per-pupil cost ofteacher training colleges (TrCs) equals 25 times the per-pupil cost of general secondary schooling. Theburden should be on government officials and donor project-designers to demonstrate that TTC-basedtraining would be cost-effective given the inconsistent evidence that it is more effective then extendingthe time spent in secondary school among young teacher candidates. Nor are common policy moves tolengthen TTC programs always defensible. Recurrent costs that are already high increase by 50 percentwhen programs increase from two to three years. Commensurate gains in teaching effectiveness arequestionable.

Figure 6.3. Cost of Preservice Teacher Training Programs. illustrative Countries

Preservice Training Cost as Multiple of General Secondary School30

25 _________________ -______----___ ----- ----- -----

20 _________________ -______----___ ----- ----- -----

t 5 _________________ -_____-----____ ----- ----- -----

I10 -___________ - ___ -_____---____---- ---- ----

5 _______---- -------- ----- -- --_____

20-

"4Wah notmam Chi" aham uw bdo mm FIkkenva PaMe Taanha Zambi

Source: Lowdcbecdand Vernpoor (l99l). Improving primry Education in Developing Countries

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How to Raise the Quality of Teachers Cost-Effectively

D6.14 If the expansion of TTC programs is found not to be either effective or efficient, then how canteacher-training streams be improved? One option is to attract young teacher candidates with longerperiods of senior secondary schooling. The effectiveness and cost of this policy strategy depends on theexistence of alternative job prospects for graduates and wage-differentials in the teaching service.Whether the socialization of teacher candidates toward professional norms and practices can be addressedoutside expensive 'rTCs is an issue that has not been addressed seriously (either operationally or viacareful research). Overall salary increases for new teachers is a common strategy for raising the statusof teaching. But little evidence exists that this strategy actually enhances the effectiveness of teachers.In some countries, governments and donors are turning to inservice training of secondary school teachers,often linked to curricular reform efforts. But little evidence exists to substantiate the claim that sporadicteacher workshops generate long-term changes in the behavior of teachers or gains in achievement amongpupils. Evaluations of these expensive programs are often absent or are of poor quality.

Gender Inequities in Teaching Opportunities?

D6.15 Secondary-school teaching jobs have historically gone to men-even as primary-school teachinghas become a female-dominated occupation. In most developing countries, women remainunderrepresented among secondary-school teachers (Figure 6.4). Females comprise just 15 percent ofall secondary teachers in Senegal; 30 percent in China; and 41 percent in Ecuador. In contrast, in muchof Latin America, the majority of teachers are women, presumably because strong growth in the wagesector has lured young men away from the teaching occupation. [Area of Ignorance #20: One fascinatingpolicy and research question is whether the increasing feminization of teaching leads to more equalsecondary-school enrollment among female pupils.] Initial evidence suggests that female pupils doperform better in subjects dominated by female teachers, often language courses.lw

Figure 6.4. Female Secondary School Teachers. Illustrative Countries, 1980-1988

% Secondary School Teachers, Female70

50- - _- - - _

40 ________________-…-_- - -_

30 - -- -

20

10

Source: Unexco (1991). World Education Rcport

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SUMMARY AND PRIORITY ISSUES

D6. 16 Strong efforts to conserve resources within the secondary-education subsector are required if (1)basic education systems are to improve and grow incrementally, and (2) the quality of secondary schoolsis to be distributed more equitably. Several avenues are available for conserving resources and containingcosts. First, teacher salaries at the secondary-school level have fared well in many developing countries.Any policy to increase salaries should be preceded by careful study of trends in real earnings and whetherincreases would indeed lure stronger teacher candidates. Second, savings may be available if theproportion of recurrent spending on administration were reduced. Third, preservice teacher trainingprograms should be evaluated carefully to determine whether high costs are justified by the magnitudeof the effects of teachers' skills on pupil achievement. Fourth, many countries now have a wealth ofexperience with cost-effective responses to social demand-for example, distance-education schemes.It is time that we carefully assess the achievement and equity effects of these innovations, including thelabor-force outcomes experienced by graduates. Finally, debate continues about the wisdom andefficiency of diversified curricula. Donors can do more to encourage curricular models that emphasizelocally relevant materials while avoiding unjustifiably high instructional costs.

7. SUMMARY: POLICY AND INSTITUrIONAL PRIORITIES

E7.1 This paper has attempted to: (1) capture and describe the major issues facing secondaryeducation; and (2) identify fundamental areas of ignorance-where policy guidance will be sound onlyif preceded by careful research and program evaluation. We have argued that operational and analyticefforts should focus on four sets of issues:

Positioning the subsector more carefily-adjusting its size, functions, andaims-to achieve country-specific economic and social goals more directly.

* Responding to nsing popular demand through a variety of school institutions,whether government-funded or private. Any drift toward market remedies shouldbe accompanied by a careful analysis of: (1) how the quality of schools variesacross streams and public/private subsectors; and (2) what types of families arebenefitting from higher-quality secondary schools?

* Policies and projects to enhance the effectiveness of teachers and schools can beinformed by accumulating empirical evidence on the investments that are morelikely to be effective. In contrast, as the diversity of secondary school widens, howcentral government can encourage local school improvements is an uncharted area.The quality and learning effects of low-cost secondary schemes requires immediateanalytic attention-otherwise, these options will remain second-rate and illusory.

* Resources must be freed within the education budget if: (1) the quality ofsecondary schools is to be distributed more equitably; and (2) the improvements inbasic education to which many governments and donors are committed are to berealized. Resources can be conserved by containing the costs of expensivestreams and budgetary elements. The burden should be on preservice teachertraining programs and diversified schools to substantiate their cost-effectiveness.Current spending on expensive auxiliary items, peripheral to teachers and classroominstruction, should be questioned.

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ANNEX 1. SUGGESTED RESEARCH: SUMMARY OF AREAS OF IGNORANCE

Area of Ignorance #1: We have few descriptions of the types of secondary schooling that seek to servefamilies and youths who work outside the wage sector.

Area of Ignorance #2: We know very little about how moral-spiritual topics are taught in secondaryschools and whether their teaching influences organizational cohesion and student achievement, assuggested by initial work on Catholic schools in the United States and secularized Islamic schools.

Area of Ignorance #3: We know little about the cost-effectiveness of youth service programs that haveoperated for some time in many developing countries.

Area of Ignorance #4: Additional research in other developing countries must be undertaken to informthe heated policy debates about whether secondary education can truly broaden equity.

Area of Ignorance #5: As labor structures and capital investment have stagnated in low-income countriesduring the past two decades, more research is required to understand the specific influence of secondary-school expansion on income inequality.

Area of Ignorance #6: Much is to be learned about how family and institutional factors operate amongdifferent countries and secondary-school systems (varying in their size, selectivity, tracks, and quality).

Area of Ignorance #7: We must learn much more about the cost-effectiveness of how low-cost forms ofsecondary education effect actual achievement levels.

Area of Ignorance #8: A pressing issue is how quality and its components (per-pupil spending levels,the quality of teachers, and instructional materials) are distributed among different schools. Few data areavailable-even on per-pupil spending levels-across different forms of secondary schooling, or betweenthe public and private sectors.

Area of Ignorance #9: When the capacity of the central government to moderate demand or shapeeducational quality declines, what is its effects on educational equity and effectiveness at the local level?Very little evidence is available on this issue-a critical one if we seriously believe that public policiesmake a difference.

Area of Ignorance #10: Much work remains on building our understanding of how secondary-schoolteachers go about their work inside classrooms.

Area of Ignorance #11: We know surprisingly little in developing countries about how such externalcultural influences (from family or peers) encourage many youths to leave school.

Area of Ignorance #12: In many countries, the level of achievement and school completion among girlsbegins to decline during the junior-secondary years. We know little about the relative influence of familyand school practices in explaining this marked decline in school performance relative to boys.

Area of Ignorance #13: Where secondary education systems contain different streams and types ofschools, the backgrounds and qualifications of teachers can vary substantially. Other than governmentnumbers on 'unqualified' teachers' or subject specialists, even basic demographic information or moredetailed data on skill levels of teachers is lacking.

- so-

Area of Ignorance #14: The motivation and commitment of teachers likely vary across different typesof secondary schools-depending on the school's level of resources, the types of children it serves, andits cohesion and professional norms. Little evidence is available on the factors that motivate secondary-school teachers.

Area of Ignorance #15: Whether infrastructures would be strengthened by decentralization orprivatization remains a large question uninformed by evidence.

Area of Ignorance #16: Only a few thorough descriptions exist of how the quality and character ofnongovernnent schools may differ from those of conventional secondary institutions. In most countries,even basic data on diverse levels of quality and types of students served are scarce.

Area of Ignorance #17: Future work should more clearly focus on explaining why private or single-sexschools are sometimes more effective and why they are often times not.

Area of Ignorance #18: Specific data on spending for administrative staff are difficult to find, especiallyfor trends over time. Additional subsectoral work might focus on this topic, and suggest how these morediscretionary resources could be spent more effectively at the school level.

Area of Ignorance #19: Donors have not been well equipped to advise governments on how curriculacan be linked to practical concerns while the costs associated with diversification are minimized.

Area of Ignorance #20: Initial evidence suggests that female pupils do perform better in subjectsdominated by female teachers, often language courses. One fascinating policy and research question iswhether the increasing feminization of teaching leads to more equal secondary-school enrollment amongfemale pupils.

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ANNEX 2. ENDNOTES

1. Several practitioners, Bank staff rnembers, and university analysts took the time to comment on this paper or contributed theircurrent operAtional or research papers, including Oebele Bruinsma, Nat Colletta, William Cummings, BirgerFredriksen,TorstenHusen, Estclle James, Noel McGinn, Merry Merryfield, Fcrnando Rcimers, Abby Riddell, Barbara Searle, D.G. Swift, NellyStromquist, and Don Warwick.

2. Our basic definitionsof effectivenessare as follows. An 'effective school' is one that enhances the learning potential of pupils,independently of children's family background. More 'efficient schools' are those that boost achievement at lower cost.*Higher quality schools' are those that demonstrate higher effectiveness: they possess resources, instructional materials, andteachers who can raise achievement, after variability in the a priori fanily background of childrcn is accounted for. Of course,the form and charactcr of preferred Iearning and socialization may vary sharply across societies and local communities.

3. Middleton, J., A. Ziderman, and A.V. Adams (1990). Skills for Productivity: Policies for Vocational Education and Traininzin Develoving Countries, Washington D.C.: World Bank, PHREE (draft manuscript); and World Bank (1991), Vocational andTechnical Education and Training: A World Bank Policy Paner, Washington, D.C.

4. The passage of compulsory attendance laws has historicallyfollowed the rise of school enrollments. Many developing countries,after gaining indepcndence, have passed mandatory attendance rules. But the direct effects on social demand are questionable.See Ramircz, F., and M. Ventrcsca (1992), Building the Institution of Mass Schooling, in B. Fuller and R. Rubinson (eds.),The Political Construction of Education, New York: Praeger.

5. Lockheed, M. and A. Verspoor (1992), Imorovins Primary Education in Developing Countries: A Review of Policy Options,New York: Oxford University Press (World Bank).

6. In Ethiopia, for exarnple, one survey found that most participants in the national litcracy campaign were functionally illiterateone year afttr completing the program. Hoben, S. (1991), The Politics of Literacy: The Ethiopian Literacy Canimaign,Carnbridge, MA: Bunting Institute Lecture Series (December).

7. We begin here with a basic household economics framework. See, for example: Becker, G. (1976), A Treatise on the Family,Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

B. On the general convergence of secular schooling in developing countries, see Trow, M. (1961), 'The Second Transformationof American Secondary Education,' International Journal of Comparative Sgcioloy, 2:144-166; and Benavot, A et al. (1991),'Knowledge for the Masses: World Models and National Curricula, 1920-1986,' American Sociological Review, 56:85-100.

9. See project documents from USAID's Improving Efficiency of Educational Systems (IEES) project. This project is helpingBalitbang Dikbud-an education ministry planning unit-to respond to demographic shifts.

10. For reviews, see Walters, P. and P. O'Connell (1988), 'The Family Economy, Work and Educational Participation,' AmericanJournal of Sociolozy, 93:1116-52; and Horan, P. and P. Hargis (1991), 'Children's Work and Schooling in the Late Nincteenth-century Family Economy,' American Sociolosical Review, 56:583-96.

11. On Islamic schools in Pakistan and the manner in which Nigerian families in the north push their children to achieve in bothKoranic and government schools (or an integrated school), see Morgan, W. and J.M. Armer (1988), 'Islamic and WesternEducational Accommodation in a Wcst African Society,' American Sociological Review, 53:634-639.

12. Stevenson, H., and S. Lee (1990), Contexts of Achievement: A Study of American. Chinese. and Jananesc Children,Monographs of the Society for Research in Child Development, vol. 55, Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

13. The historical origins of secondary schools-and the lack of fitcdonal linkage with the wage sector-arc discussed in severalhistorical studies: Trow, M. (1972), 'TheTransitionofAmerican Secondary Education,' American Socioloeical Review; Prost,A. (1968), Histoiredc l'Enseisnementen France. 1800-1967,Paris: Presses Universitairesde Francc; and Gamier, M., J. Hage,and B. Fuller (1989), 'The Strong State, Social Class, and Controlled School Expansion in France,' American Journal ofSociology 95:279-306.

14. Fora review of empirical evidenceonthis issuc, see Rubinson,R. (1986), 'Class Formation, Politics and Institutions: Schoolingin the United Stases,' American Journal of Sociology, 92:519-41.

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15. A recent planning statement by the Africa Policy-Dialogue Collaborative reported wide frustration with the influence ofCambridge exans on conceptions of knowledge and teaching practices. But among the seven countries represented, serious

moves away from the Cambridge structure could not be observed fMannathoko, C., et al. (1991), 'Summary of the Planning

Meeting," Gaborone: University of Botswana).

16. For reviews of the strengths and weaknesses of Kenya's new 8-4-4-4 system, see Sifuna, D. (1990), Development of Education

in Africa: The Kenya Experience, Nairobi: Initiatives Pub.; and recent World Bank staff appraisal reports.

17. For review of this evidence from Europe, the United States, and developing countries, ee Fuller, B., and R. Rubinson (1992),

'Does the Stte Drive School Expansion? Review of the Evidence,! in The Political Construction of Education, B. Fuller and

R. Rubinson (eds.), New York: Praeger.

18. When youth unemployment is high, debate intensifies about the negative aspect of institutionally creating an 'adolescent society'

among young persons who are segregated from workplaces and adult social roles. For a current review of this issue in OECD

countries, see Northdurft, W. (1989), School Works: Reinventing Public Schools to Create the Workforce of the Future,Washington,D.C.: German Marshall Fund; Vickers, M. (1991), Buildin a National School-to-WorkTrnsition: Lessons fromBritain and Australia, Somerville, MA: Jobs for the Future; and Haddad, W., G. Stevenson, and A. Adams (1987), "Youth

Unemployment in the EMENA Region,' Washington, D.C.: World Bank [EDT Discussion Paper 761.

19. Sec Figure 2.2 and Benavot, A. (1983), "The Rise and Decline of Vocational Education,' Sociolocy of Education, 56:63-76.

20. Recent work reveals a convergence in the structure and curricular content ofprnmary schooling among many countries: Inkeles,

A., and L. Surowy (1983), 'Convergent and Divergent Trends in National Education Systems,' Social Forces, 62:303-333;andBenavot, A. ct al. (1991), "Knowledge for the Masses: World Models and National Curricula, 1920-1986," AmericanSociolosical Review, 56:85- 100. However, greater diversity in government-stated objectives, actual organizational structures,and curricular content is apparent at the secondary level. For a review of country cases, mee Malkova, Z.A. and B.L. Vulfson(1988), International Yearbook of Education: Socondary Education in the World Today, Paris: UNESCO/International Bureauof Education.

21. For descriptions of heated debates over the new '8-4-4 System," see the sources listed in note 16.

22. On Indonesia, see EES Project (1984), Indonesia Education Sector Assessment, Tallahassee, FL: Florida State University andUSAID. On Pakistan, see Holsinger, D. et al. (1990), Pakistan: Lower Secondary Education in Puniab, Washington D.C.:World Bank; and World Bank and Asian Development Bank (1991), Pakistan: ReviewofSecondarvand Intermediate Education,Washington, D.C.

23. For historical reviews of European and U.S. secondary school structures, see papers in Corwin, R. (1991), Research inSociology of Education and Socialization. Volume 9, Greenwich, CT: JAI Press.

24. For historical reviews, see Tyack, D. (1974), One Best System, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Pres; Bledsteut, B.(1976), The Culture of Professionalism, New York: W.W. Norton; Collins, R. (1979), The Credential Society, New York:Academic Press; and Gamier, M., and J. Hage (1991), 'Class, Gender, and School Expansion in France," Socioloev ofEducation, 64:229-250.

25. The efricacy of this rategy is evidenced by research findings which sbow that the effects of schooling on agriculturalproductivity re greater after six or eight years of schooling. For a review, se Lockheed, M., D. Janison, and L. Lau (1980),'Farmer Education and Farm Efficiency: A Survey," in Education and Income, T. King (ad.), Washington, D.C.: World Bank,StaffWorking Paper 402. Recent work in Ghana also shows that, where the quality of primary schools is low, positioning lower

secondary schools to strengthen basic educaion can yield significant wage retumns in commercial job sectors. See Glewwe, P.(1991), "Schooling, Skills, and the Retuns to Government Investmeat in EducLtion,' Washington. D.C.: World Bank, LSMS

Working Paper 76.

26. T. Eisemon's work in Kenya raie serious questions about whether typical pedagogy and scarce instructional materials-foundin low-quality schools-enable rural youths to rcad and use information that holds promise for raising their productivity or thesocial quality of life. See Eisemnon, T. (1988), Benefiting from Basic Education. School Ouality and Functional Literacy in

Kenva, Oxford: Pergamon Pres.

27. For empirical studies on how labor demands evolve during early periods of economic development, see Carnoy, M., and D.Marenbach (1975), "Returns to Schooling in the United States," Journal of Human Resources, 10:312-331; Blaug, M. (1976),"The Empirical Status of Humn Capital Theory: A Slightly Jaundiced Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, 14:827-856;

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Knight, J. and R. Sabot (1990), Education. Productivity, and Inecuality, New York: Oxford University Press; and Fuller, B.,at al. (1990), 'State Action and Labor Structure Change in Mexico.' Social Forces, 68:1165-1189.

28. Descriptive studies of this area are beginning to emerge: Harber, C. (1984), 'Development and Political Attitudes: The Roleof Schooling in Northern Nigeria,' Comparative Education, 20:387-403; Cummings, W., et al. (1988), The Revival of ValuesEducation in Asia and the West, Oxford: Perganon Press; Malkova, Z.A., and B.L. Vulfson (1988), International Yearbookof Education: Secondary Education in the World Today. Paris: UNESCO, International Bureau of Education; and Harber,C. (1990), 'Education for Critical Consciousness? Curriculum and Reality in African Social Studies,' International Journal ofEducational Development, 10:27-36.

29. Coleman, J.S. (1990), 'Social Capital,' American Journal of Sociology; and Jimenez, E., and M. Lockheed (1991), Private vs.Public Education: An International Perspective, special issue of International Journal of Education, vol. 15.

30. A fascinating and mildly facetious paper on this topic was recently written by Professor William K. Cummings, HarvardUniversity, entitled, 'Why not Terminate Secondary Education? An Exploratory Essay on Talent Development,' draft datedNov. 21, 1991.

31. For reviews of this issue in European countries, se Haddad, W. et al. (1987), 'Youth Unemployment in the EMENA Region,'Washington, D.C.: World Bank, EDT Discussion Paper 76; Nothdurft, W. (1989), SchoolWorks: Reinventintz Public Schoolsto Create the Workforce of the Future, Washington, D.C.: German Marshall Fund; and Vickers, M. (1991), Buildinez a NationalSystem for School-to-Work Transition: Lessons from Britain and Australia, Somerville, MA: Jobs for the Future.

32. See Stern, D., E. Greenberger, and L.D. Steinberg (1986), When Teenagers Work: The Psycholoaical and Social Costs ofAdolescent Employment, New York: Basic Books. An overview of Nigeria's Youth Service Corps appears in Adesina, S., etal. (1983), Nigerian Education, Ile-Ife: Nigeria University of Ife Press. For a review of Great Britain's experience with howformal schooling fits into a youths' transition to adulthood, see Kerckchoff, A. (1990), Gettine Started: Transition to Adulthoodin Great Britain, Boulder, CO: Westview Press.

33. Jimenez, E., and B. Kugler (1987), 'Thc Earnings Impact of Training Duration in a Developing Country,' Journal of HumanResources, 22:228-247; and Jimenez, E., ct al. (1989), 'National In-Service Training Systems in Latin America: An EconomicEvaluation of Colombia's SENA,' Economic Develooment and Cultural Change, 37:595-610.

34. Behrmnan, J., and N. Birdsai (1983), 'Thc Quality of Schooling: Quantity Alone is Misleading,' American Economic Review,73:928-946 [Brazil]; Psacharopoulos,G., and E. Vlez (1991), 'Education Quality and LAbor Market Outcomes: Evidence fromColombia.' paper presented at the Comparative and International Education Society, Pittsburgh; and Glewwc, P. (1991),'Schooling, Skills, and the Returns to Government investment in Education,' Washington, D.C.: World Bank, LSMS WorkingPaper 76.

35. Riddell, A. (1989), 'An Alternative Approach to the Study of Effectiveness in Third World Countries,' Comparative EducationRavicw, 33:4.

36. The economic status and social commitments (for instance, literacy practices) of families can be related to youths' rate of entryinto scondary school. For evidence from Kenya, ee Mwiria, K. (1990), 'Kenya's Harambee Secondary School Movement:Contradictions of Public Policy,' Comparative Education Review, 34:350-368. Similar evidence is available from Nepal; memShcstha, G.M. (1986), 'Determinants of Educational Participation in Rural Nepal,' Comaative Education Review, Vol. 30.

37. Knight, J., and R. Sabot (1990), Education. Productivity, and Inecuality, New York: Oxford University Pres.

38. In many countries, private seondary schools are considered to be low-quality institutions, serving only youths who fail to wina place at higher-quality government schools. To the extent that achievement in primary school is determined by familybackground, the growth of private schooling may broaden access but also reinforce social-class inequities. For evidence fromZambia, se Kaluba, L.H. (1986), 'Education in Zambia: The Problem of Access and the Paradox of the Private SchoolSolution,' Comparative Education, 22:159-169. For Ghana, see Bibby, J., and M. Peil (1974), 'Secondary Education in Ghana:Private Enterprise and Social Selection,' Sociolofv of Education, 47:399-418.

39. Little evidence is available on this issue. But initial research does reveal that a sharp stratification of school quality betweenpublic and private schools is appareat in both Chile and Uruguay. See a brief review by Tedesco, J.C. (1991), 'PrivatizationReforms: How Effetive Arc They in Latin America?' The Forum for Advancing Basic Education and Literacy, 1: 10.

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40. Psacharopoulos, G. (1985), 'Returns to Education: A Further International Update,- Journal of Human Resources, 20:583-604;and Psacharopoulos, G. (1989), 'Time Trends of the Returns to Education: Cross-National Evidence," Economics of EducationReview, 8:225-231.

41. For a review of returns from secondary schooling in the United States, see Murnane, R. (1991), 'Why Do Today's High SchoolEducated Males Earn Less than Their Fathers Did?' paper presented at Harvard University (September).

42. Researchers have also studied the influence of schooling on simple entry into the formal labor force (nonfarm employment).This economic outcome is particularly telling for women in low-income countries, who may have limited access to cash income.A recent review of this work appears in Florio, M., and J. Wolf (1990), The Economic and Social Impacts of Girls' PrimaryEducation in Developing Countries, Washington, D.C.: USAID and Creative Associates, Inc. For a thorough treatment of thelabor participation issue, including gender differences, see the papers contained in Herz, B., and S. Khandker (1991), Women'sWork. Education, and Family Welfare in Peru, Washington, D.C.: World Bank, Discussion Paper 116.

43. Mincer, J. (1970), *The Distribution of Labor Incomes: A Survey with Special Reference to the Human Capital Approach,-Journal of Economic Literature, 8:1-26; Chenery, H., and M. Syrquin (1975), Patterns of Development 1950-1970, New York:Oxford University Press; Leipziger, D.M., and M. Lewis (1980), 'Social Indicators, Growth, and Distribution,' WorldDevelopment, 8:299-312; and Ram, R. (1989), 'Can Educational Expansion Reduce Income Inequality in Less DevelopedCountries?' Economics of Education Review, 8:185-195. For a review of empirical studies, see Tilak, J. (1990), Educationand its Relation to Economic Growth. Poverty, and Income Distribution, Washington, D.C.: World Bank, Discussion Paper46. For the case of Japan and the United States, see James, E., and G. Benjamin (1987), "Educational Distribution and IncomeDistribution through Education in Japan," Journal of Human Resources, 22:468-488.

44. Knight, J., and R. Sabot (1990), Education. Productivity, and Inequality, New York: Oxford University Press.

45. Individual rawe-of-return studies suffer from two major flaws. First, wages are used as proxy indicators of worker productivity.More recent work has usod multiple measures of productivity (see, for example, Knight and Sabot 1990, note 45), includingstudies of the effects of school anainment on agricultural productivity (for example, Lockheed, Jamison, and Lau 1980; andMoock, P. (1981), "Education and Technical Efficiency in Small Farm Production," Economic Development and CulturalChanse, 30:723-739). Yet most individual-level studies simply assume that wages represent measures of productivity. Thisassumption is difficult to substantiate in many countries where the wage-sector is dominated by trade and government workers.Second, individual-level studies cannot capture benefits not accruing to specific individuals (externalities), which may lead tounderestimatesofschooling'seconomic effects. Third, schoolingeffects may be overestimated when the seor simply sorts moreproductive people into higher-paying jobs, absent any value-added effect from educational atainment per se. Since the workof Edward Denison in the late 1950s, researchers have constructed aggregate-growth models to estimate the discrete influenceof education (sector size and school quality) on nation-level economic growth. For methodological reviews, see Jorgenson, D.(1987), "The Contribution of Education to Economic Growth, 1948-1973,- in Education and National Productivity, E. Dean(ed.), Cambridge, MA: Ballinger; Jorgenson, D., et al. (1987), Productivity and U.S. Economic Growth, Cambridge, MA:Harvard University Press; Blaug, M. (1976), "Human Capital Theory: A Slightly Jaundiced View,' Journal of EconomicLiterature, 14:827-855; and Lau, L., D. Jamison, and F. Louat (1991), "Education and Productivity in Developing Countries:An Aggregate Production Function Approach," Washington, D.C.: World Bank, WDR Working Paper 612.

46. Lau, L., D. Jamison, and F. Louat (1991), "Education and Productivity in Developing Countries: An Aggregate ProductionFunction Approach," Washington, D.C.: World Bank, WDR Working Paper 612.

47. Benavot, A. (1989), "Education, Gender, and Economic Development: A Cross-National Study," Sociolosy of Education, 62: 14-32.

48. McMahon, W. (1992), "The Economics of School Expansion and Decline," in The Political Construction of Education, B. Fullerand R. Rubinson (eds.), New York: Paeger. A reciprocal model, examining the interaction between literacy and GNP percapita gains, is described in Wheeler, D. (1980), "Human Resource Development and Economic Growth in DevelopingCountries: A Simultaneous Model," Washington, D.C.: World Bank, Staff Working Paper 407.

49. Benavot, A. (1992), "Educational Expansion and Economic Growth in the Modern World, 1913-1985,- The PoliticalConstruction of Education, B. Fuller and R. Rubinson (eds.), New York: Praeger, pp. 117-134.

50. Walters, P., and R. Rubinson (1983), 'Educational Expansion and Economic Output in the United States, 1890-1979," AmericanSocioloeical Review, 48:480-493.

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51. As secondary schooling becomes a mass institution, its signaling valuc also declines. Recent rcsearch disentangles wage effectsstemming from simply gaining a secondary certificate versus actual achievement levels-what is actually learned independentof winning the credential (see Boissiere, M., J. Knight, and R. Sabot (1985), 'Earnings, Schooling, Ability, and CognitiveSkills,' American Economic Review, 75:1016-1030). After educational quality is held constant, extending secondary certificatesto more youths will erode the Borting function of schools, thus reducing the amount of information provided to potentialemployers about the relative productivity levels of different applicants.

52. For France, see Hage, J., etal. (1988), 'TheActive State, Investment in Human Capital, and Economic Growth: France 1825-1975,' American SociologicalReview, 53:824-837. For Mexico, see Fuller, B., et al. (1986), 'The InfluenceofSchool Qualityon Economic Growth in Mexico,' in The Ouality of Education in Developine Countries, S. Heyneman and D. White (eds.),Washington, D.C.: World Bank, pp. 32-54.

53. For a review of this recent empirical work, see Rubinson, R. (1992), 'Specifying the Effects of Education on National EconomicGrowth,' The Political Construction of Education, B. Fuller and R. Rubinson (eds.), New York: Praeger, pp. 101-115.

54. Schultz, T.P. (1989), 'Returns to Women's Education,' Washington, D.C.: World Bank, WDR Working Paper 1.

55. See papers contained in King, E., and M.A. Hill (1991), Women's Education in Developing Countries: Barriers. Benefits, andPolicy, Washington, D.C.: World Bank, PHREE Paper Series 91/40. Also see Birdsall, N. (1985), 'Measuring Time Use andNonmarket Exchange,' in Third World Poverty: New StrateRies for Measuring Development Pro_ress, W. McGreeve (ed.),Lcxington MA: Lexington Books; and Wolfe, B., and J. Behrman (1987), 'Women's Schoolingand Children's Health,' Jounalof Health Economics, 6:239-254.

56. For a recent review of rescarch on the social benefits of primary and secondary schooling, see Floro, M., and J. Wolf (1990),The Economic and Social Impacts of Girls' Education in Develo_ins Countries, Washington, D.C.: USAID and CrcativeAssociates, Inc.

57. For a summary of recent world fertility surveys, see Dcmographic and Health Surveys (1990), 'Women's Education: Findingsfrom Demographic and Hcalth Surveys,' paper presented in Bangkok, March. For a review of fertility effects from varyinglevels of education, see Herz, B., et al. (1991), Letting Girls Learn: Promisine Approaches in Primar= and SecondaryEducation, Washington, D.C.: World Bank, Discussion Paper 133.

58. Duncan, Wendy (1989), Eneenderine School Learnine, Stockholm: Institute for International Education.

59. King, E., and L. Lillard (1987), 'Education Policy and School Attaianent in Malaysia and the Philippines,' Economics ofEducation Review, 6:167-181. On the gender implications of increasing school supply, see Bellew, R., and E. King (1991),'EducatingWomen: Lessons from the past,- in Women's Education in Develooin2 Countries, Washington, D.C.: World Bank,PHREE Series 91/40, pp. 251-285. Some governments may reinforce gender inequities by building more single-sex schools forboys than for girls. For evidence from certnain provinces in Pakistan, see Kelley, G. (1987), 'Sctting State Policy on Women'sEducation in the Third World,' Comparative Education Review, 23:95-102.

60. For a review of early policy adjustment programs in Africa, see Fuller, B., and A. Habte (eds.) (1992), Adiustine EducationalPolicies to Conserve Rcsources and Raise School Ouality, Washington, D.C.: World Bank, Africa Technical Series.

61. On issues associates with families' ability to pay for schooling, we Tan, J.P. et al. (1983), 'User Charges in Education:Willingness and Ability to Pay in Malawi,' Washington, D.C.: World Bank, EDT Series. One recent study concluded thatparents in Pcru-.cvenpoor parents-arnwilling to pay significant feesto hlp open and operate new secondary schools: Gertler,P., and P. Glawwc (1989), 'The Willingness to Pay for Education in Developing Countries: Evidence from Rural Peru,'Washington, D.C.: World Bank, LSMS Working Paper 54.

62. Evidence for this claim is clear in one country-the United States. See Hansen, W., and Weisbrod, B. (1969), 'The Distributionof Costs and Benefits of Public Higher Education, Journal of Human Resources, 4:176-191.

63. For the historical case of France's class-structured secondary system, see Gamier, M., et al. (1989), 'The Strong State, SocialClass, and Controlled School Expansion in France, 1881-1975,' American Journal of Socioloev, 95:279-306.

64. Okeyc, M. (1986), 'Community Secondary Schools: A Case Study of a Nigerian Innovation in Sclf-Help,' International Journalof Educational Development, 6:263-274. On India's innovative night schools, see Naik, C. (1982), 'An Action Research Projecton Universal Primary Education,' in Women's Education in the Third World, G. Kelly and C. Elliot (eds.), Albany, NY: StateUniversity of New York Prcss.

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65. Chinnanon, S. (1988), 'Distance Education in Thailand,' Bulletin of the Unesco Rezional Office for Asia and the Pacific,no.29:51-64. Malawi data come from the government, Malawi College of Distance Education.

66. Evidence on the distribution of subsidies in the subsector is scarce. One empirical study from Tunisia is informnativc on thisissue: Jones, M.T. (1986), *Regional Disparitiesand Public Policy in Tunisian Education,- Comparative Education,22:201-220:Unequal levels of government subsidy between urban and rural schools in Sri Lanka are detailed in Kapferer, J. (1975), 'FourSchools in Sri Lanka: Equity of Opportunity in Rural Schools?' Comparative Education, 1:31-41. For the case of Namibia,see Florida State University (1991), Namibia Education Sector Assessment, Tallahassec, FL: IEES Project.

67. Shields, N., et al. (1989), 'Malawi Second Education Scctor Credit: Staff Appraisal Report,' Washington, D.C.: World Bank.

68. Snyder, C., Jr., and P. Ramatsui (1990), Curriculum in the Classroom: Botswana's Junior Secondary Improvement Program,London and Gaborone: Macmillan.

69. Two methodological issues are particularly troublesome: First, since teacher salaries comprise from 90 to 95 percent of schoolspending, unit cost estimates are highly sensitive to changes in the rcal earnings of teachers-which may not affect annualchanges in the quality of teachers or their instructional practices (note that nonteacher salary spending is proportionately muchhigher in some secondary school systems; see Figure 4.4). Second, pegging spending levels to real USS figures maskss widcvariation in actual purchasing-power levels for teacher salaries across countries.

70. Schultz, T.P. (1988), 'Expansion of Public School Expenditures and Enrollments: Evidence on the Effects of Income, Prices,and Population Growth,' Economics of Education Review, 7:167-183.

71. For a recent review of how these various actions by the central government can influence social demand for schooling, weFuller, B., and R. Rubinson (1992), 'Does the State Expand Schooling?' in The Political Construction of Education, New York:Pracger, pp. 1-28. For related evidence from East Asia , see King, E., and L. Lillard (1987), 'Education Policy and SchoolAttainment in Malaysia and the Philippines,' Economics of Education Review, 6:167-181.

72. See, for example, Fishlow, A. (1966), "Levels of Nineteenth-Century American Investment in Education,' Journal of EconomicHistory, 26:418-436; Harbison, R., and E. Hanushek (1991), School Achievement Among the Rural Poor: The Case ofNortheast Brazil, Washington, D.C.: World Bank (draft manuscript); and Schultz, T.P. (1988), 'Expansion of Public SchoolExpenditures and Enrollments," Economics of Education Review, 7:167-183.

73. For historical evidence from the United States, see Rubinson, R., and J. Ralph (1984), 'Technical Change and the Expansionof Schooling in the United States, 1890-1970,- Socioloev of Education, 57:134151.

74. For historical evidence from Mexico, se Fuller, B., et al. (1990), 'State Aacion and Labor Structure Change in Mexico,- SocialForces, 68:1165-1189. For similar findings from the United States, se Walters, P.B. (1984), *Occupational and Labor MarketEffects on Secondary Educationa Expansion,' American SociologicalReview, 49:659-671. For England, se Mitch, D. (1982),The Spread of Literacv in Nineteenth-Century England, Ph.D. dissertation, University of Chicago, Department of Economics.

75. Thc case for northern Nigeria is reported in Morgan, W., and J.M. Armer (1988), 'Islamic and Western EducationalAccommodation in a West African Society,' American Sociological Review, 53:634-639.

76. For a post-War study of how fanily preferences for more schooling have become institutionalized in many developing countries,see Meyer, J.W., and M. Hannan (eds.) (1979), National Development and the World System: Educational. Economic, andPolitical Change, Chicago: University of Chicago Press. For an innovative discussion of how family preferences for schoolingmay vary sharply according to cultural and gender-related beliefs, se King, E., and R. Bedlew (1991).

77. Lockheed, M., A. Verspoor, ct al. (1991), Improving Primar" Education in Developinz Countries. New York: OxfordUniversity Press.

78. Fuller, B. (1987), *What School Factors Raise Achievemnent in the Third World?' Review of Educational Research, 57:255-292.For a review of more recent empirical work on the determinants of achievement in primary schools, se Lockheed, M., A.Verspoor, et al. (1991), Improvine Primarv Education in Developing Countries, New York: Oxford University Press.

79. Riddell, A. (1991), *What Causes Diffcrences in Achievement in Zimbabwe's Secondary Schools?' Washington, D.C.: WorldBank, PHR Working Paper 705.

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80. Glewwe, P. , et al. (I 99 1), 'Student Achievement in Low Income Countries: Evidence from Ghana,' Washington, D. C.: WorldBank; and Riddell, A., and L. Nyagura (1991), 'What Causes Differences in Achievement in Zimbabwe's Secondary Schools,'Washington, D.C.: World Bank, PHR Working Paper 705. IEA classroom findings are reported in Anderson, L., et al. (1988),The Classroom Environment Study, Oxford: Pergamon Press.

81. Research on teaching in the United States and Europe is a huge field, with empirical evidence accumulating over the past 30years. For a review, see Dunkin, M.J. (ed.) (1987), International Encyclopedia of Teaching and Teacher Education, Oxford:Pergamon. Work within developing countries has emphasized importing Western models of teaching, not actually observingwhat teachers in developingcountriesdo and understandingthis within-country-specificforms of child socializationand teaching.

82. For empirical evidence, see Goodlad, J. (1984), A Place Called School, New York: McGraw-Hill; and Anderson, L., and R.Burns (1989), Research in Classrooms, Oxford: Pergamon.

83. One study in Botswana entailed observing Form 1 and Form 2 teachers repeatedly over a one-year period. The investigatorsfound that, in general, these teachers displayed simple and highly routinized pedagogical practices, relying on lecture, drill, andindividual seatwork. The script is not dissimilar from teaching routines found in the United States (Stodolsky, S. (1988), TheSubject Matters, Chicago: University of Chicago Press). However, the level of routinization and simple consistency during theschool year was significantly bigher in Botswana than in west European countries, based on a staistical indicator of teacherconsistency. These comparative data are contained in Fuller, B., et al. (1991), 'Teacher Rituals and Organized Sacrilege,'Cambridge, MA: Harvard University (draft).

84. Chacko, I. (1989), 'Teachers' Verbal Behavior and Students' Achievement in Mathematics,- International Journal ofMathematics Education, 20:63-71.

85. Avalos, B. (1980), *Teacher Effectiveness: Research in the Third World,' Comparative Education, 16:45-54.

86. Fuller,B., and C.W. Snyder,Jr. (1991), 'Vocal Teachers, SilentPupils? Life in Botswana Classrooms,- Comparative EducationReview, 35:274-294.

87. Sarr, B. (1990), 'Textbooks, Exams, and Definitions of Secondary Education,' London: London Institute of Education (draft).

88. For reviews of findings on cooperative-learning approaches, see Cohen, E. (1986), 'On the Sociology of the Classroom,' inThe Contributions of the Social Sciences to Educational Policy and Practice, J. Hannaway and M. Lockheed (eds.), Berkeley:McCutchan, pp. 127-162; and Sharan, S. (1984), Cooperative Learnine in the Classroom: Research in Desegregated Schools,Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.

89. For qualitative evidence from Africa, see Prophet, R., and P. Rowell (1990), *The Curriculum Observed,' in Curriculum inthe Classroom, C. Snyder, Jr., and P. Ramatsui (eds.), London and Gaborone: Macmillan, pp. 1-56.

90. Fuller, B., and C. Snyder, Jr. (1992), 'Teacher Productivity in Sticky Institutions: Curricular and Gender Variation,'International Perspectives on Educational Efficiency, I). Chapman and H. Walberg (eds.), Greenwich, CT: JAI Pres.

91. Stevenson, H., et al. (1986), 'Classroom Behavior and Achievement of Japanese, Chinese, and American Children,' Advancesin Instructional Psychology, R. Glasa (ed.), Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum; and Schaub, M., and D. Baker (1991), 'Solving the MathProblem: Mathematics Achievement in Japanese and American Middle Grades,' American Journal of Education, August:623-642.

92. For example, see Willis, P. (1977), Learning to Labour, Westmead: Saxon House; Everhart, R. (1983), Reading, Writing andResistance, New York: Routledge; and Trueba, H., et al. (1989), What Do Anthropoloeists Know about Dropouts? New York:Falmer.

93. For a discussion of the dissonancebetween home and school forms of socialization, see LeVine, R., at al. (1991), Learning inDevelopinz Countries: Reconcevtualizin,the Educational Process, Paris: UNESCO and the World Bank (draft manuscript).Students of curricula in developing countries are attempting to understand how the content of secondary education might be mnademore reevant to youths not bound for the urban wage sector. For example, see Kay, S. (1975), 'Curriculum Innovations andTraditional Culture: A Case History of Kenya,' Comparative Education, 2:183-191.

94. For example, see Herz, B. (1989), 'Women in Development: Kenya's Experience,' Finance and Development, June:43-45.

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95. For reviews of gender differences in how male and fcmale students are treated in U.S. classrooms, see Brophy, J., and C.Evertson (1981), Student Characteristics and Teaching, New York: Longman; and Sadker, M., ct al. (1991), 'The Issue ofGender in Elementary and Secondary Education,' in Review of Research in Education. Volume 17, G. Grant (ed.), Washington,D.C.: American Educational Research Association, pp. 269-334.

96. Hua, H. (1991), 'Gender Differences in Teaching Practices,' Cambridge, MA: Harvard University (draft manuscript for USAIDand Creative Associates, Inc.).

97. For a recent review, 'Improving the Preparation and Motivation of Teachers,' Chapter 4 in Lockheed, M., and A. Verspoor(1991), Improvina Primary Education in Developinz Countries, New York: Oxford University Press.

98. Already cited surveys have yielded a wealth of data on the characteristics of secondary-school teachers in several countries:Botswana, Brazil, Egypt, Indonesia, Kenya, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Thailand.

99. Our research in Botswana finds that junior-secondary teachers with two years of teacher training have a slight tendency to usemore complex forms of pedagogy. But the effect is small. The recurrent cost implications of this rank are enormous (see Fuller,B., at al. (1991), 'Teacher Rituals, Organized Sacrilegc,' Cambridge, MA: Harvard University (draft)).

100. How secondary schools can be transformed into workplaces for professionals-as opposed to unresponsive, mechanicalorganizations-isa major issuewithin industrialized and developingcountries. Fora review of useful incentives, see Rosenholtz,S. (1989), Teachers' Workplace: The Social Organization of Schools, New York: Longman.

101. Thesc findings come from the recent teacher and classroom study carried out by the International Association for the Evaluationof Educational Achievement (IEA). Findings on teachers' morale and sense of control are reported in Bourke, S. (1990),'Responsibility for Teaching: Some International Comparisons of Teacher Perceptions,' International Review of Education,36:315-327. Data are from Nigeria, South Korea, Thailand, Israel, and western Europe.

102. Chapman, D., et al. (1991), 'Teacher Incentives in the Third World,' Albany, NY: State University of New York (draft).

103. Ware, S. (1991), 'Secondary School Science in Developing Countries: Status and Issues,' Washington, D.C.: PHREE DraftReport.

104. Evidence is available from Botswana junior secondary classrooms. See note 100.

105. Surprisingly little work has been undertaken at the school level to support an understnding of how gender-basedtracking occurs.One studycomes from Nigeria: Jcgede, O., and lnyang, N. (1990), 'GendcrDifferencesand AchievementinIntegratedScienceAmong Junior Secondary Students,' International Review of Education, 36: 364-368.

106. Studies of school effectiveness in England have demonstrated this link between strong school-level lcadership and theorganizational support found at higher organizational levels (whether the district office, local education authority, province, orcentral ministry). For instance, ae Rutter, M., et al. (1979), Fifteen Thousand Hours: Secondary Schools and Their Effectson Children, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press; and Mortimore, P., et al. (1988), School Matters, Berkeley:University of California Press. Organizational reforms applied to developing countries are reviewed briefly in Haddad, W., etal. (1990), Education and Development: Evidence for New Priorities, Washington, D.C.: World Bank, Discussion Paper 95.

107. For reviews of the technical and normative isues associatedwith national examinations, see Irvine, S.H., and J.W. Berry (1988),Human Abilities in Cultural Context, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Heyneman, S. (ed.) (1989).

108. School clusters, involving primary and econdary schools, are discussed in Bray, M. (1987), School Clusters: Making ThemWork, Paris: UNESCO and UNICEF; and Wanasinghe, J. (1983), 'Cluster Schools and their Relevance to EducationalDevelopment in Sri Lanka,' Internationa Journal of Educational Development, 3:247-252.

109. Stevenson, D., and D. Baker (1991), 'State Control of the Curriculum and Oassroom Instruction,' Socioloev of Education,64:1-10.

110. When frequent, intense periods of seletion characterize the secondary education system, tutoring industries appear to grow,exacerbating inequitable rates of access to higher levels of schooling. Evidence on this process is recently reported for Japan,Turkey, Greece, and South Korea in Stevenson, D., and D. Baker (1992), 'Shadow Education and Allocation in FormalSchooling,' American Journal of Sociology, May.

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111. Schaub, M., and D. Baker (1991), 'Solving the Math Problem: Exploring Mathematics Achievement in Japaneseand AmericanMiddle Grades,' American Journal of Education (August), pp. 623-642; and Baker, D., and M. Schaub (1992), *Learning fromthe Best: Effective Mathematics Instruction in Japanese and American Classes,' in In Search of More Effective MathematicsEducation, D. Baker et al. (eds.), New Jersey: Ablex.

112. Baker, D., and D. Jones (1992), 'Opportunity and Performance: An Explanation for Gender Differences in Mathematics,' inEducation and Gender, J. Wrigley (ed.), London: Faliner Press.

113. For evidence on Catholic versus government schools in the United States, four papers covering both sides of the debate areincluded in Sociolozv of Education, vol. 58, 1985; in that issue, empirical findingsare reported in Hoffer, T., A. Greeley, andJ. Coleman, 'Achievement Growth in Public and Catholic Schools. * The quality of and types of pupils served by nongovernmentschools in Australiavary enormously. Public fundssupportchurch-run schoolsthrough a capitationgrant scheme. For a review,see Anderson, D. (1990), *The Unstable Public-Private School System in Australia,' NBEET conference, Canberra. Studentsattending small private secondary schools may be less likely to drop out than those attending public school. See Rosier, M.(1978), Early School Leavers in Australia: Family. School and Personal Determinants, Stockholm: Almqvisrt and Wiksell. InJapan, over one-fourth of all secondary students are enrolled in secondary schools. For a brief review, see Benjamin, G. (1991),'Choices of Education in Japan,' in Parental Involvement and Public Choice in Education, E. Goldring (ed.), special issue ofInternational Journal of Educational Research, vol. 15, pp. 251-264.

114. Samnoff, J. (1991), 'The Politics of Private Schooling in Tanzania,' in Private vs. Public Education: An International Perspective,E. Jimenez and M. Lockheed (eds.), special issue of International Joumal of Education, vol. 15, pp. 445-462.

115. Figueroa-Unda, M. (1991), 'The Ideological Agenda in Class-structured Private and Public Schools: Case Study of MexicoCity,' in Private vs. Public Education, E. Jimenez and M. Lockheed (eds.), special issue of International Journal of Education,vol. 15, pp. 445-462.

116. Psacharopoulos, G. (1987), 'Public vs. Private Schools in Developing Countries: Evidence from Colombia and Tanzania,'International Journal of Educational Development, 7:59-67.

117. A survey of 372 secondary schools in Zaire attempted to focus on how the educational and social aims of these institutionsdiffered according to organizational type and sponsorship. See Sheline, Y., et al. (1984), 'The Effect of School Sponsorshipon Academic Achievement: Comparison of Catholic, Protestant, and Government Secondary Schools in Zaire,' ComparativeEducation, 20:223-236.

118. Jimenez, E., et al. (1991), "School Effects and Cost for Private and Public Schools in the Dominican Republic,' in Private vs.Public Education, E. Jimenez and M. Lockheed (eds.), pp. 393410.

119. A brief review of these findings appears in Tedesco, J.C. (1991), 'Privatization Reforms: How Effective Are They in LatinAmerica?' Forum for AdvancinL Basic Education Literacv, 1:10 (USAID and Harvard University).

120. Marsh, H. (1991), 'Public, Catholic, and Single-sexSchools in the United States," American Journal of Education, 99:320-348.

121. Rowan, B., et al. (1991), "Organizational Design il High Schools: A Multilevel Analysis," American Journal of Education,99:238-266.

122. Lee, V., and M. Lockheed (1990), "The Effects of Single-sex Schooling and Achievement and Attitudes in Nigeria,'Comparaive Education Review, 34:209-231.

123. Papers by E. James provide detailed information on policy altenatives and country experiences with regulating private schools.See James, E. (1991), "Public Policies toward Private Education: An International Comparison," in Private versus PublicEducation: An International Perspective, E. Jimenez and M. Lockheed (eds.), pp. 359-376; and E. James (1987), "The PoliticalEconomy of Private Education in Developed and Developing Countries,' Washington, D.C.: World Bank, EDT Series 71. ForJapan, ee E. James (1988), Public Policy and Private Education in Japan, New York: St. Martin's Pres.

124. Schultz,T.P. (1989), "ExpansionofPublic School Expendituresand Enrollments," EconomicsofEducationReview, 7:167-183.

125. Bray, M. (1990), 'The Economics of Multiple-shift Schooling: Evidence and Rescarch Gaps," International Journal ofEducational Development, 10:181-187.

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126. The Bank's extensive review of research and in-country experiences with vocational training at the secondary level appears inMiddleton, J., A. Ziderman, and A. Van Adams (1991), Skills for Productivity: Policies for Vocational Educationand Training,Washington, D.C.: PHREE Report. The Bank's policy guidelines appear in Vocational and Technical Education and Trainine:A World Bank Policy Paver (1991).

127. See Chapter 4, Lockheed, M., and A. Verspoor (1991), Improvine Primar" Education in Develoriinz Countries, New York:Oxford University Press.

128. Riddell, A., and Nyagura, L. (1991), 'What Causes Differences in Achievement in Zimbabwe's Secondary Schools?'Washington, D.C.: World Bank, PHR Working Paper 705; and Glewwe, P., et al. (1991), 'Student Achievement and SchoolingChoice in Low Income Countries: Evidence from Ghana,' Washington, D.C.: World Bank.

129. Lockheed, M., et al. (1989), 'How Textbooks Affect Achievement in Developing Countries,' Educational Evaluation and PolicyAnalysis, 8:379-392.

130. This empirical finding comes from Botswana: Kahn, M. (1988), 'Indicators of Equity in Junior Secondary Education inBotswana, in Botswana: Education. Culture, and Politics, Edinburgh: Centre for African Studies, pp. 119-136.

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