Workshop on the use of GAINS model for the revision of the Gothenburg Protocol

Focus on key measures to improve air quality in Europe and the role of EECCA and Balkan countries in that improvement

20-21 June 2011IIASA, Laxenbrg

Methodology for emission calculations and estimating of mitigation potentials

The GAINS model

Janusz Cofala (IIASA), Stefan Åström (IVL)

Outline

• Background• Method• Some illustrative results

Background GAINS

• The GAINS model is an updated version of the RAINS model• Originally, the RAINS model was developed to support the

UNECE CLRTAP• GAINS makes it possible to propose effect-oriented

international policies to reduce transboundary air pollution• These policies are cheaper than 'uniform cap' policies. • The GAINS model is today also including greenhouse gas

calculations• The GAINS model provides support to the work with air

pollution in the EU and CLRTAP, as well as EU efforts to reduce emissions of Greenhouse gases in the EU.

Background GAINS

• The model calculates cost efficiency from a 'techno-economical' perspective (macro-economic feedbacks are not included)

• The model does not put an economic value on health and environmental impacts from air pollution. Cost-benefit analysis can be done as a separate task by other research team (AEA Technology)

• The model exists in several versions:– The abatement cost minimizing offline version run by IIASA– The Greenhouse Gases Mitigation Efforts Calculator (for Annex I

countries)– online scenario analysis tools for:

• Europé (within EMEP), East Asia (with China), South-Asia, Rest of the World

• Ireland, Italy, The Netherlands, Sweden, Russia (national implementations)

GAINS methodology – REMINDER!!

A model provides a simplified version of reality which can be used to show complex interactions

GAINS methodology – REMINDER!!

The scenario technique

A scenario is the description of a possible, consistent future development of a system (e.g. the energy, transport and agricultural system)

The purposes of scenarios are•the presentation and quantification of different pathways of future development of technical systems and analysis of the consequences of these pathways (costs, environmental impacts)•the analysis of changes in the system caused by changed exogenous parameters

Friedrich, 2010

Multi-pollutant-multi-effect approach

PM (BC/OC)

SO2 NOx VOC NH3 CO2 CH4 N2O HFCs PFCs SF6

Health impacts - ambient particulate matter

● ● ● ● ●

- ground-level ozone ● ● ¤

Vegetation and ecosystems damage

- ground-level ozone ● ● ¤ - acidification ● ● ● - eutrophication ● ●

Climate impacts - long-term forcing (GWP100)

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

- near-term forcing ● ● ¤ ¤ ● ● ¤

Building blocks of GAINS

Energy/agricultural projections

Emissions

Emission control options

Atmospheric dispersion

Air pollution impacts,GWP of GHG emissions

Costs

PRIMES, POLES, CAPRI,IEA, nat. projections

Simulation/“Scenario analysis” mode, available online

The GAINS optimization mode

Energy/agricultural projections

Emissions

Emission control options

Atmospheric dispersion

Costs

Environmental targets

OPTIMIZATION

PRIMES, POLES, CAPRI,IEA, national projections

Air pollution impacts,GWP of GHG emissions

Models help to separate policy and technical issues

Amann, 2009

Decision makers Models

Decide about:

•Ambition level (environmental targets)•Level of acceptable risk•Willingness to pay

Identify cost-effective and robust measures:• Balance controls over different countries, sectors and pollutants • Regional differences in Europe• Side-effects of present policies • Maximize synergism with other air quality problems • Search for robust strategies

Aggregation of energy- related sources

Fuel categories:• Coal• Oil• Gas• Biomass• Renewables• Nuclear• Electricity• Heat• Different types and

grades included

Primary sectors:• Power plants• Other energy production

and conversion• Industry• Domestic• Transport• Non-energy use• Further divided into

secondary sectors

Aggregation of transport sources

• Road transport

– Cars, light-duty trucks

– Heavy-duty trucks, buses

– Motorcycles and mopeds (2-stroke, 4-stroke)

• Non-road mobile sources

– Rail, Air, Inland waterways

– National sea traffic and national fishing

– Mobile machines – construction and industry, agriculture

– Other (households, gardening, forestry, military)

• For each source vehicle numbers and fuel consumption assessed. For road transport – also vehicle-kilometers

Aggregation of process sources

Production of raw materials:• Steel• Aluminum• Other metals• Cement• Glass• Oil and natural gas• Oil refining• Fertilizers…

Storage and handling of bulk products:

• Coal• Agricultural products• Metal ores• Fertilizers• Other…Construction activitiesWaste treatment and disposal

Stationary sources: • SO2:

– Use of low sulfur fuels– In-furnace control – Flue gases desulphurization– Process emissions controls

• NOx:– Combustion modification– Catalytic and non-catalytic

reduction• NH3:

– Dietary changes– Animal housing adaptation and

air purification– Manure storage and application

techniques– Urea substitution

Options to control emissions of air pollutants:

• VOC:– Basic management techniques– Solvent substitution– End-of-pipe measures

• PM– Cyclones, ESP, other Filters– Cleaner industrial processes– Improved boilers and stoves– Good practices

Mobile sources: • EURO standards• Non-road EURO equivalents

GAINS data base on emission control options

Wagner, Klimont, 2009

SO2: 180 optionsNOx: 400 optionsPM: 850 options (same as NOx for transport sector sources)NH3: 110 optionsVOC: 500 optionsGHG: 300 (ca), incl structural measures for CO2,

options for CH4, N2O, F-gases

GAINS methodology - scenarios

• By using a data base containing information on:– Emission factors for unabated emissions– Dispersion of air pollution over Europe– Ecosystem sensitivity, Population distribution– Technologies and options for reducing emissions, specified

with respect to:• emission removal efficiency• cost of implementation

• And by using scenario specific estimates (projections regarding: – Activities causing pollution– Implementation of emission reducing technologies

GAINS results - scenarios

• The GAINS model can calculate the following results:– Emissions in a country– The impact on the environment and human health caused by the

emissions– The costs for reducing emissions in countries

• With respect to that:– Some technologies used to reduce pollutants might increase

emissions of other pollutants– Emissions in some countries have a larger impact on human

health and the environment than other countries’ emissions

GAINS methodology – Calculating emissions

mkj

i,j,k,mmkjikjimkj

mkjii )Xeff(efAEE,,

,,,,,,

,,, 1

i,j,k,m Country, sector, fuel, abatement technology

Ei Emissions in country i

A Activity in a given sector

Ef “Raw gas” emission factor

effm Reduction efficiency of the abatement option m

X Implementation rate of the considered abatement measure

Klimont, 2009

Cost calculations in GAINS

• All costs in constant Euro 2005• Net of taxes• Annual costs method • Costs based on international investment and operating

experience • For developing countries – local components in

investment costs included• Three levels of discount rate

– 4% (social)

– 10% (business)

– 20% (private)

Cost components

•Common (the same for all countries)- unit investment costs, - fixed O+M costs, -extra demand for labor, energy, and materials

• Country-specific - size of installation, - plant factors, - prices for labor, electricity, fuel and other materials, - cost of waste disposal

Calculating abatement costs

Cofala, 2009

Cost components: •common (the same for all countries)

- annualized unit investment costs, Iann

- fixed O+M costs, OMfix

- extra demand for labor, energy, and materials, OMvar

• country-specific, OMvar - size of installation, - plant factors, - prices for labor, electricity, fuel and other materials, - cost of waste disposal

C = Iann + OMfix + OMvar

Calculating dispersion of pollutants(Source-receptor relationships for PM2.5 - from the EMEP Eulerian model)

PM2.5j Annual mean concentration of PM2.5 at receptor point j

I Set of emission sources (countries)J Set of receptors (grid cells)pi Primary emissions of PM2.5 in country i

si SO2 emissions in country i

ni NOx emissions in country i

ai NH3 emissions in country i

αS,Wij, νS,W,A

ij, σW,Aij, πA

ij Linear transfer matrices for reduced and oxidized nitrogen, sulfur and primary PM2.5, for winter, summer and annual

)2**2),1**32

14*1**1,0min(max(*5.0

)**(*5.0

**5.2

jiIi

Wijji

Ii

Wiji

Ii

Wij

iIi

Siji

Ii

Sij

iIi

Aij

Iii

Aijj

knckscac

na

spPM

Air pollution impacts

Damage to human health:• loss in life expectancy from PM2.5• mortality from ground-level ozone

Damage to vegetation:• effects of acidification and eutrophication for• forests, semi-natural ecosystems, Natura 2000 areas

Emissions of greenhouse gases

Results- examples

Current and future (2020) emissions of air pollutants in Europe, kilotons

02000400060008000

100001200014000160001800020000

SO2 NOx PM 2.5 NH3 VOC

2000 Baseline Max. Reductions

An example cost curve for SO2

Low sulfur coal

1 % S heavy fuel oil

FGD - baseload

power plants

FGDoil fired

power plants

0.2 % S diesel oil

FGD large industrial

boilers

0.6 % S heavy fuel oil

FGD small industrial

boilers

0.01 % Sdiesel oil

Remaining measures

Present legislation

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Remaining emissions (kt SO2)

Mar

gin

al c

ost

s (E

UR

O/t

on

SO 2

rem

ov

ed)

Cost curves describe how pollution control costs increase with increasing levels of emission reductions.

Loss in life expectancy attributable to fine particles [months]

Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5Calculations for 1997 meteorology

2000 2020 2020 CAFE baseline Maximum technical

Current legislation emission reductions

Excess acid deposition to forests

Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads, Calculation for 1997 meteorology

2000 2020 2020 CAFE baseline Maximum technical

Current legislation emission reductions

More information

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/rains/meetings/GAINS-tutorial/presentations.html

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/rains/gains-methodology.html?sb=10

Documentation

Presentations