WMO OMMGlobal Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)

Presentation to the 26th CEOS Plenary at Bengaluru, India 24-27 October, 2012

--Challenges and Opportunity to the Space Community

Wenjian Zhang, Director, Observing and Information Systems Department

Director, WMO Space Programme, WMO

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A historic event (31 Aug – 4 Sept, 2009, Geneva)

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The Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)—A New Partnership Process

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WMO Cg-16 (2011) Decisions on Five Key Priorities for 2012-2015

Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)

WMO Integrated Global Observing System/WMO Information System (WIGOS/WIS)

Capacity building Disaster Risk Reduction Aeronautical meteorology

GFCS Implementation Plan

Chapter 1: Introduction Annex 1: UIP

Chapter 2: Benefits from GFCS Annex 2: CSIS

Chapter 3: Issues to be addressed Annex 3: Obs & Mon

in implementation Annex 4: Res & Mod

Chapter 4: Implementation priorities Annex 5: Cap Dev

Chapter 5: Enabling mechanism

Chapter 6: Resources mobilization Exempl.: Water

Chapter 7: Conclusions and Exempl.: Dis.Risk Red.

recommendations Exempl.: Health

Exempl.: Agric./Food

Security

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Governance Structure

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Consultation meetings

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• User Interface Platform o Agricultural, Food Security and Water sectors (September

2011, FAO, Rome)o Disaster Risk Reduction and Health Stakeholders –WHO

(November 2011)• Climate Services Information System — (April 2011)• Observations and Monitoring (Chairman: Dr T. Mohr)

o 1st meeting for WMO and WMO cosponsored programs (GCOS, WCRP, UNSCO/IOC..) (August 2011)

o 2nd meeting addressing the user communities (in agriculture, Water, health, DRR, Space Agencies ) (December 2011)

• Capacity Building — Requirements of NMHSs for the GFCS (October 2011)

http://www.wmo.int/gfcs

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The following key challenges have been identified through widespread consultations with experts of key communities (similarity of challenges with GCOS)

• Accessibility: many countries do not have climate services at all, and all countries have scope to improve access to such services.

• Capacity: many countries lack the capacity to anticipate and manage climate related risks and opportunities.

• Data: the current availability and quality of climate observations and impacts data are inadequate for large parts of the globe.

• Partnership: interactions between climate service users and providers are not always well developed, and user requirements are not always adequately understood and addressed.

• Quality: operational climate services are lagging advances in climate and applications sciences, and the spatial and temporal resolution of information is often insufficient to match user requirements.

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GFCS needs –Systemic observationsObserving the Earth as a Total System

CirculationSurface WindsPrecipitationReflection and TransmissionSurface TemperatureEvaporationCurrentsUpwelling

CirculationSurface WindsPrecipitationReflection and TransmissionSurface TemperatureEvaporationCurrentsUpwelling

InfiltrationInfiltrationRunoffRunoffNutrient LoadingNutrient LoadingSurface TemperatureSurface TemperatureCurrentsCurrents

InfiltrationInfiltrationRunoffRunoffNutrient LoadingNutrient LoadingSurface TemperatureSurface TemperatureCurrentsCurrents

Surface WindsPrecipitationReflection and TransmissionEvaporationTranspirationSurface Temperature

Surface WindsPrecipitationReflection and TransmissionEvaporationTranspirationSurface Temperature

LandLand

Ocean

Atmosphere

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1979The Arctic Ocean ice has been there for 2 million years.

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2003The Arctic Ocean ice has been there for 2 million years.

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Tiksi, Russia

Alert, Canada

Barrow, Alaska

Eureka, Canada

Summit, Greenland

Ny-Alesund, Svalbard

Establishing IntensiveAtmospheric ObservatoriesIn the Arctic

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INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE PHYSICAL CLIMATE, GREENHOUSE GASES, AEROSOLS, GAS-PHASE ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY, ECOSYSTEM DYNAMICS, LAND USE, AND THE WATER SYSTEM

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Climate Services will Require an Unprecedented Level of Collaboration

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The GFCS initially focused priority areasProvide opportunities for new partnership to address new observational requirements through user communities

Agriculture Water

HealthDisaster Risk Reduction

http://www.wmo.int/gfcs

Exemplary Grand Challenges: DroughtsSatellite monitoring of soil moisture can support argiculture/food

secruity, DRR, Water and health

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WCRP Workshop on Drought Predictability and Prediction in a Changing Climate Barcelona, March 2011

Three Major Recommendations:

1. Drought Catalogue Summarizing key drivers of global drought events.

2. Case StudiesFocusing on large-scale and regional issues in areas

where drought is a key issue.

3. Develop Drought Early Warning System

WMO OMMWhy should the health sector engage?

Meteorological conditions affect some of the largest disease burdens:

- Undernutrition kills 3.5 million/yr

- Diarrhoea kills 2.2 million/yr

- Malaria kills 900,000/yr-Hydrometeorological extremes kill 10s of thousands, and cause multiple other health effects

© World Meteorological Organization

90% of events 70% of casualties 75% of economic losses

Hydro-met and climate related!

Tsunami1%

Wild Fires 2%

Windstorm 43%

Earthquake22%

Drought5%

Extreme Temp.

2%Flood 25%

Global Distribution of Disasters Caused by

Natural Hazards and their Impacts (1980-2007)

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc

Economic losses

Loss of lifeNumber ofevents

Volcano1,6%

Tsunami0,4%

Epidemic, insects13%

Wild Fires 3%

Windstorm 27%

Earthquake8%

Drought5%

Extreme Temp.

4%

Flood 33%

Slides 5%

Volcano1%Tsunami

12%Epidemic,

insects10%

Windstorm 15%

Earthquake16%

Drought30%

Extreme Temp.

5% Flood 10%

© World Meteorological Organization

While economic losses are on the way up!

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

0.05

2.66

0.17

1.73

0.39

0.65

0.22 0.25

0.67

0.22

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

56-65 66-75 76-85 86-95 96-05

Geological

Hydrometeorological

Millions of casualties per decade

decade

Loss of life from hydro-

meteorological disasters are decreasing!

4 11 1424

47

88

160

345

103

495

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

56-65 66-75 76-85 86-95 96-05

Geological

Hydrometeorological

Billions of USD per decade

decade

© World Meteorological Organization

National Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systemsneed strong support from space observations

National to local disaster risk reduction plans, legislation and coordination mechanisms

1 2

3 4

© World Meteorological Organization

Space Architecture

The satellite operators represented in CEOS and CGMS, and

WMO and GEO agreed early 2011 to develop an architecture

for monitoring climate from space.

The architecture will have the following functional components:- Analysis of user requirements- Observing capacities- ECV product generation- Data management, access and dissemination- User interface- Coordination and governance

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GCOSRequire-ments

Otherrequire-ments, e.g.GFCS

ClimateSystem Monitor.

GFCS

UNFCC,IPCC

CEOS and CGMS members are the backbone of the Space Architecture

WMO OMMWWMOMO IINTEGRATED NTEGRATED GGLOBAL LOBAL OOBSERVING BSERVING SSYSTEM YSTEM (WIGOS)(WIGOS)

WMO Global Observing Systems

Global Observing Systems (WWW/GOS) RBSN, RBCN (>10,000 stations,1,000 upper-air) AMDAR (39754/day) Ship & Marine obs (30417/day) Surface-based remote sensing Meso-scale networks

WMO Space Programme Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) World Hydrological Cycle Observing System (WHYCOS) WMO Co-sponsored Observing Systems

GCOS, GOOS, GTOS

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Need an Integrated Global Observing System meet all

requirements

WMO Congress-15/16 decisions to Implement

WWMOMO IINTEGRATED NTEGRATED GGLOBAL LOBAL

OOBSERVING BSERVING SSYSTEM YSTEM (WIGOS)(WIGOS)

The key word of WIGOS = Integration

The whole is more than the sum of the parts--Aristotle

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• WMO with its Members, bodies and co-sponsored programmes will provide only a component needed to build the framework

• GFCS is a global collective effort being built in collaboration with UN family and GEO, Space partners (CEOS & CGMS) and all relevant stakeholders

A Space Architecture: a key component of GFCS.

The contribution of WMO to the Development of GFCS

http://www.wmo.int/gfcs

WIS

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Great advances in Global and Regional Numerical Weather Forecasts: Credit of WMOFurther advances in the Realm of Climate need broader international collaborations

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The 26th CEOS Plenary – Bengaluru, India - 24-27 October, 2012

Thank you

Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) Office

For more information on GFCS, kindly contact:Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) OfficeWorld Meteorological Organization Tel: 41.22.730.8579Fax: 41.22.730.8037Email: gfcs@wmo.int http://www.wmo.int/gfcs

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Different Views of Requirements

Datasets

Products

Observation &Monitoring

InstrumentsSpecifications: Instrument type, Orbit, Scanning mode, Spectral bands, Channel width, SNR, …

Observational requirements:Geophysical variable, Unit, Domain, Spatial resolution, Temporal resolution, Uncertainty …

Source, Format,Projection, Segmentation, Quality flag, Compression,Metadata…

Product requirements: Type (numerical, graphical, binary, alert), Algorithm, Spatial/temporal resolution, Quality control

Service requirements: Content, Presentation, Delivery media, Timeliness, Continuity, User support, Training, .. Services

USERS’ needs

USERS’ satisfaction

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A first step is to document the current and planned implementation arrangements, ECV-by-ECV, by the individual satellite agencies. (An inventory of the current and planned long-term production of Thematic Climate Data Records at the level of individual satellite agencies).

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Architecture (4) The next step will be the identification of the satellite constellations in terms of instruments and orbits required for providing the relevant satellite data sets for the production of ECVs and extreme events

In parallel some considerations on the necessary governance structure for the implementation phase is needed