wl provincial elections sep2011

8/4/2019 WL Provincial Elections Sep2011

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Confidential

September 2011

Macro Strategy — Government:Canadian Election P rimer

Warren LovelySenior Economist & Head Government Strategist

Bipan Rai, Associate



| 3

Province of British Columbia

Mark Your Calendar:

14-May-2013 — Scheduled date for next election

Key Players:

Christy Clark — Premier / Leader of Liberal Party

Adrian Dix — Leader of Official Opposition / NDP

Jane Sterk — Leader of Green Party

John Cummins — Leader of Conservative Party

Recent Developments:

Clark officially sworn in as Premier 14-Mar-2011, replacing former Premier Campbell(who announced resignation 3-Nov-2010); Clark won Vancouver-Point Grey riding in11-May by-election (formerly held by Campbell); Clark named chief rival for Liberalleadership, Kevin Falcon, to influential Finance post

As of mid-Aug, Angus Reid Public Opinion put Clark’s approval rating at 42% (up from 36% in May-2011 and a substantial improvement over Campbell’s 16%approval rating in Feb-2011)

HST referendum results announced 26-Aug; 52% voter participation, and of those voting, 55% rejected HST, forcing transition back to PST system by 1-Apr-2013 (latest); BC now forced to pay back $1.6B of federal HST transition funding, contributing to larger deficit in 2011/12 (now projected at $2.8bn) andrequiring additional effort to balance books by 2013/14; Q1 Update on 8-Sep also revealed negative fiscal impact from slowing global economy

Amidst fallout from the HST referendum, Clark has ruled out a Fall 2011 election, with next vote scheduled for 14-May-2013 Dix won NDP leadership election 14-Apr-2011, after former NDP Leader Carole James stepped down in Dec-2010

British Columbia — Election History and Current Party Standing

1991 1996 2001 2005 2009 Current Seats

Seats Vote (%) Seats Vote (%) Seats Vote (%) Seats Vote (%) Seats Vote (%) as of Sep-11

Liberal 17 33.3 33 41.8 77 57.6 46 45.8 49 45.8 49

NDP 51 40.7 39 39.5 2 21.6 33 41.5 35 42.2 34

Green 0 0.1 0 2.0 0 12.4 0 9.2 0 8.2 0Independent / Other (1) 7 26.0 3 16.7 0 8.4 0 3.5 1 3.8 2

TOTAL 75 100.0 75 100.0 79 100.0 79 100.0 85 100.0 85

Party Elected Liberal

Type of Government Majority

Premier Christy Clark (2)

(1) Current seats comprised of 2 Independents; (2) Clark sworn in on March 14, 2011

NDP Liberal

Majority

Mike Harcourt

NDP

Majority

Glen Clark

Majority

Gordon Campbell

Liberal

Majority

Gordon Campbell

Liberal

Majority

Gordon Campbell

NDP

34 Liberal

49

Independent

2

British Columbia — Current Seat Count



| 4

Province of Alberta

Mark Your Calendar:

17-Sep-2011 — PC Party votes on new Leader / next Premier;

if necessary, second vote held 1-Oct-2011 3-Mar-2013 — Latest date for next provincial election

Key Players:

Doug Griffiths, Doug Horner, Gary Mar, Ted Morton, Rick Orman, Alison Redford—Candidates to replace Ed Stelmach as Premier / Leader of Alberta PC

Raj Sherman — Leader of Official Opposition / Alberta Liberals

Danielle Smith — Leader of Wildrose Party

Brian Mason — Leader of NDP


After earlier announcing he would not seek re-election, Stelmach formerly tendered resignation 27-May, indicating he will step down 1-Oct; recent poll suggestsMar is front-runner to become next Premier, with 31%, followed by Redford (20%)

Summer polls show PC Party regaining strength; Environics poll conducted in mid-Jul put support for PCs at 54%, with Wildrose trailing at 16% and the Liberalsand NDP at 13.5% each; as of mid-Aug, Angus Reid Public Opinion put Stelmach’s approval rating at 33% (up from 27% in May-2011 and 21% in Feb-2011)

Sherman elected as Liberal Leader 10-Sep; Sherman known as strong health care advocate and Liberal polling suggests a majority of Albertans disapprove of government’s management of health care; emergency wait times a hot button issue

Environmental fallout from oil sands continues to garner international attention; nonetheless, US government found on 26-Aug that proposed Keystone XLpipeline would pose "no significant impact"; US state department to issue final decision on pipeline by end of year

Independent / Other

2 Liberal

8 PC

67

NDP

2 Wildrose

4

Alberta — Current Seat Count

Alberta — Election History and Current Party Standing

1993 1997 2001 2004 2008 Current Seats


PC 51 44.5 63 51.2 74 61.9 62 46.8 72 52.7 67

Liberal 32 39.7 18 32.8 7 27.3 16 29.4 9 26.4 8

Wildrose - - - - - - - - 0 6.8 4NDP 0 11.0 2 8.8 2 8.0 4 10.2 2 8.5 2

Independent / Other (1) 0 4.8 0 7.3 0 2.7 1 13.6 0 5.6 2

TOTAL 83 100.0 83 100.0 83 100.0 83 100.0 83 100.0 83

Party Elected PC


Premier Ed Stelmach (2)

(1) Current seats comprised of 1 Alberta Party & 1 Independent; (2) Announced resignation, new leader scheduled to be chosen September 17, 2011

PC

Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority

PC PC PC PC

Ed StelmachRalph Klein Ralph Klein Ralph Klein Ralph Klein



| 5

Province of Saskatchewan

Mark Your Calendar:

7-Nov-2011 — Provincial election

Key Players:

Brad Wall — Premier / Leader of Saskatchewan Party

Dwain Lingenfelter — Leader of Official Opposition / NDP

Ryan Bater — Leader of Liberal Party

Victor Lau — Interim Leader of Green Party


Recent polls show support for Saskatchewan Party remains very strong; Praxis Analyticspoll from late-Aug / early-Sep gave Sask. Party 63% support of decided voters vs. 26%for NDP; Wall seen as best choice for Premier by nearly 80% of respondents in PraxisAnalytics poll; as of mid-Aug, Angus Reid Public Opinion put Wall’s approval rating at 63%(up from 59% in May-2011 and strongest approval rating of all provincial Premiers)

Government has emphasized tax relief and infrastructure investments, and is one of the few provinces projecting a budget surplus for 2011/12

Election issues include potash royalties, access to health care, rent controls

NDP favours an independent review of potash royalty system, with a view to extracting a “fairer share”; the government has countered that increasing royalties / corporate taxes risks chasing away investment; NDP has proposed “Bright Futures Fund”, which would dedicate a portion of resource royalties for future

investment (not for deficit financing), citing Alberta and Norway as good examples

NDP

20

Saskatchewan

Party

38

Saskatchewan — Current Seat Count

Saskatchewan — Election History and Current Party Standing

1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 Current Seats


Saskatchewan Party - - - - 25 39.6 28 39.4 38 50.9 38

NDP 55 51.1 42 47.2 29 38.7 30 44.7 20 37.2 20

Liberal 1 23.3 11 34.7 4 20.2 0 14.2 0 9.4 0

PC 10 25.5 5 17.9 0 0.4 0 0.2 0 0.2 0

Independent / Other 0 0.1 0 0.2 0 1.1 0 1.6 0 2.3 0

TOTAL 66 100.0 58 100.0 58 100.0 58 100.0 58 100.0 58

Party Elected Saskatchewan Party


Premier Brad Wall

NDP NDP NDP NDP Saskatchewan Party

Majority

Roy Romanow Roy Romanow Roy Romanow Lorne Calvert Brad Wall

Majority Majority Minority Majority

U p c o m i n g

U p c o

m i n g

E l e c t i o n ! E l e c t i o n !



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Province of Manitoba

Mark Your Calendar:

4-Oct-2011 — Provincial election

Key Players:

Greg Selinger — Premier / Leader of NDP

Hugh McFadyen — Leader of Official Opposition / PC Party

Jon Gerrard — Leader of Liberal Party


Recent polls point to a very close race in 4-Oct election, with roughly equivalent supportfor NDP and PC; as of mid-Aug, Angus Reid Public Opinion put Selinger’s approval rating

at 52% (up from 48% in May-2011 and 34% in Feb-2011, and representing the 3 rd strongestapproval rating of all provincial Premiers)

The government can boast that it avoided a major downturn during the 2008-09 crisis and promotes affordable electricity and car insurance costs; the return of the Winnipeg Jets hockey club has also boosted spirits

Selinger has promised to train more doctors, nurses and health-care workers; McFadyen is offering a child care tax credit and home renovation tax credit

The government was generally praised for its handling of unprecedented spring flooding; Q1 Update estimates province’s share of roughly $630mn in floodcosts at $154mn; the NDP still aim to balance budget by 2014/15; PCs argue spending cuts or tax increases will be needed and would take longer to get back tobalance

The planned route, associated construction cost and environment impact of Bipole III high voltage transmission line remains a high profile issue; the provincehas entered into long-term deals to supply power to US states which will require further development of new hydro generating capacity

The majority of farmers and the NDP oppose the federal government's plan to eliminate the Canadian Wheat Board’s monopoly; McFadyen contends theprovince should accept the federal government’s plan

PC

18

NDP

36

Vacancy

2 Liberal

1

Manitoba — Current Seat Count

U p c o m i n g

U p c o

m i n g


Manitoba — Election History and Current Party Standing

1990 1995 1999 2003 2007 Current Seats


NDP 20 28.8 23 32.8 32 44.5 35 49.5 36 48.0 36

PC 30 42.0 31 42.9 24 40.8 20 36.2 19 37.9 18Liberal 7 28.2 3 23.7 1 13.4 2 13.2 2 12.4 1

Independent / Other (1) 0 1.1 0 0.6 0 1.3 0 1.2 0 1.7 2

TOTAL 57 100.0 57 100.0 57 100.0 57 100.0 57 100.0 57

Party Elected NDP


Premier Greg Selinger (2)

(1) Current seats comprised of 2 Vacancies; (2) Selinger replaced Doer in October 2009

NDP


PC PC NDP NDP

Gary Filmon Gary Filmon Gary Doer Gary Doer Gary Doer



| 9

Province of New Brunsw ick

Mark Your Calendar:

22-Sep-2014 — Scheduled date for next election

Key Players:

David Alward — Premier / Leader of PC Party

Victor Boudreau — Interim Leader of Official Opposition / Liberal Party

Donald Arsenault, Brian Gallant, Mary Schryer — Potential Liberalleadership candidates, amongst others

Dominic Cardy — Leader of NDP


Corporate Research Associates poll conducted in mid-Aug put support for PCs at 41%;while still quite healthy, support for PC government has declined relative to Spring;as of mid-Aug, Angus Reid Public Opinion put Alward’s approval rating at 44% (up from 40% in May-2011)

Boudreau is interim leader of Liberals after Shawn Graham stepped down in Nov-10; Liberal leadership election will likely take place in Fall 2012; Cardy wonNDP leadership election in Mar-2011, replacing interim leader Jesse Travis

Putting economic growth and government finances on sustainable footing key focus for government; lack of job creation has been problematic; Alward hasfaced criticism over government spending restraint, including cuts to health and education; government consulting on approaches to eliminate provincial deficitby 2014/15, with plan expected in 2012 budget

Delayed refurbishment of Pt. Lepreau nuclear plant has been controversial (and expensive), with province seeking federal compensation; the affordability of provincial power rates remains an issue; government under scrutiny regarding decision to proceed with potentially lucrative shale gas development; criticssupport a moratorium, similar to that implemented by Québec; Canadian Blood Services has made controversial decision to move blood processing work fromSaint John to Halifax; Alward unsuccessfully lobbied Prime Minister Harper to block move

Liberal

13 PC

42

New Brunswick — Current Seat Count

New Brunswick — Election History and Current Party Standing

1995 1999 2003 2006 2010 Current Seats


PC 6 51.6 44 53.0 28 45.4 26 47.5 42 48.8 42

Liberal 48 30.9 10 37.3 26 44.4 29 47.1 13 34.4 13NDP 1 9.7 1 8.8 1 9.7 0 5.1 0 10.4 0


TOTAL 55 100.0 55 100.0 55 100.0 55 100.0 55 100.0 55

Party Elected PC


Premier David AlwardDavid AlwardFrank McKenna Bernard Lord Bernard Lord Shawn Graham

PC


Liberal PC PC Liberal



| 11

Province of Prince Edward Island

Mark Your Calendar:

3-Oct-2011— Provincial election

Key Players:

Robert Ghiz — Premier / Leader of Liberal Party

Olivia Crane — Leader of Offical Opposition / PC Party

Sharon Labchuk — Leader of Green Party

James Rodd — Leader of NDP


Sep-2011 poll by Corporate Research Associates showed Liberals poised for re-election,holding 59% support, followed by the PC (31%); Ghiz preferred premier by 46% of pollrespondents, while Crane was the choice of 22%

Opposition has criticized government for run-up in debt and perceived lack of deficit elimination plan; Ghiz points to role of provincial stimulus in helping tobuttress province from earlier global recession

Ghiz focused on recruitment / retention of highly skilled health professionals and support for education; Crane has promised to subsidize home heating costs;Crane also favours banning ‘fracking’ in the province, while Ghiz’s prefers a caution approach, including environmental assessments; some controversyregarding pesticide use by Island farmers and the potential harm to fishery

Island’s stature / tourism industry bolstered by recent Royal visit by Duke and Duchess of Cambridge and by earlier hosting of Regis & Kelly TV show; high

unemployment rate remains an issue Globe & Mail reports that the federal government has asked the RCMP and Canadian Border Services to investigate possible fraud and bribery in the PEI

immigrant investor program; this controversy could influence the outcome of the Oct election

PC

2 Liberal

24

Vacancy

1

Prince Edward Island — Current Seat Count

Prince Edward Island — Election History and Current Party Standing

1993 1996 2000 2003 2007 Current Seats


Liberal 31 55.1 8 44.8 1 33.8 4 42.7 23 52.9 24

PC 1 39.5 18 47.4 26 58.0 23 54.3 4 41.4 2

NDP 0 5.4 1 7.9 0 8.2 0 3.1 0 2.0 0Independent / Other (1) 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 3.8 1

TOTAL 32 100.0 27 100.0 27 100.0 27 100.0 27 100.0 27

Party Elected Liberal


Premier Robert Ghiz

(1) Current seats comprised of 1 Vacancy

Robert GhizCatherine Callbeck Pat Binns Pat Binns Pat Binns

Liberal


Liberal PC PC PC

U p c o m i n g

U p c o

m i n g




| 12

Province of Newfoundland & Labrador

Mark Your Calendar:

11-Oct-2011 — Provincial election

Key Players:

Kathy Dunderdale — Premier / Leader of PC Party

Kevin Aylward — Leader of Official Opposition / Liberal Party

Lorraine Michael — Leader of NDP


Dunderdale replaced popular former Premier Danny Williams, after he announced hisretirement in Nov-2010; she was officially sworn in Apr-2011

Recent poll by Corporate Research Associates shows PC leading with 54% support, whilesupport for Liberals and NDP is ~20%; as of mid-Aug, Angus Reid Public Opinion putDunderdale’s approval rating at 58% (up from 43% in May-2011 and second highest approval rating of all provincial Premiers)

Aylward chosen as Liberal leader in Aug-2011 after former leader Yvonne Jones abruptly stepped down due to health reasons

$6.2bn Muskrat Falls / Lower Churchill project major focus; environmental assessment raised questions as to whether project was least-costly option forprovince and Opposition have questioned impact on ratepayers; Dunderdale vowing to push ahead, with announced loan guarantees from federal government amajor victory; further details on structure of loan guarantee due by end of Sep-2011; Québec sees loan guarantees as providing project with unfair advantage

Newfoundland and Labrador — Election History and Current Party Standing

1993 1996 1999 2003 2007 Current SeatsSeats Vote (%) Seats Vote (%) Seats Vote (%) Seats Vote (%) Seats Vote (%) as of Sep-11

PC 16 42.1 9 38.7 14 40.8 34 58.7 44 69.6 43

Liberal 35 49.1 37 55.1 32 49.6 12 33.1 3 21.7 4

NDP 1 7.4 1 4.5 2 8.2 2 6.9 1 8.5 1


TOTAL 52 100.0 48 100.0 48 100.0 48 100.0 48 100.0 48

Party Elected PC

Type of Government MajorityPremier Kathy Dunderdale (2)

(1) Current seats comprised of 1 Vacancy; (2) Dunderdale replaced Williams in December 2010

MajorityClyde Wells Brian Tobin Brian Tobin Danny Williams Danny Williams

Majority Majority Majority Majority

Liberal Liberal Liberal PC PC

Liberal

4 PC

43

NDP

1

Newfoundland and Labrador — Current Seat Count

U p c o m i n g

U p c o

m i n g


wl provincial elections sep2011

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