wisconsin is open for business october 13, 2011 wisconsin’s workforce trends 1 dennis winters...
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Wisconsin is Open for Business
October 13, 2011
Wisconsin’s Workforce
Trends
1
Dennis WintersChief, Office of Economic Advisors
Department of Workforce DevelopmentOctober 13, 2011
Wisconsin’s Workforce Trends
Wisconsin is Open for Business
October 13, 2011
Wisconsin’s Workforce
Trends
2
So, what will be the biggest socio-economic
policy challenge in the next 20 years?
Wisconsin is Open for Business
October 13, 2011
Wisconsin’s Workforce
Trends
3
ELDERLY NUMBERS WILL SWELLWIDEN THE SIDEWALKS WILL YA !?
Wisconsin is Open for Business
October 13, 2011
Wisconsin’s Workforce
Trends
4
QUANTITY
Wisconsin is Open for Business
October 13, 2011
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Trends
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WISCONSIN’S WORKFORCE GROWTHBECOMES FLAT
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, OEA
Wisconsin Population and Labor Force
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
( x 1
000
)
POPULATION
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE
Wisconsin is Open for Business
October 13, 2011
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BLS RAISED LFPR FOR THE FUTUREPARTICULARLY FOR OLDER COHORTS
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of the Census, OEA
Changes in LFPR by Age Cohort
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
16-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+
Constant2000201020202030
Wisconsin is Open for Business
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Trends
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WISCONSIN’S WORKFORCE HIGHER LFPRs OFFER LIMITED GAINS
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, OEA
Worker Difference from Census 2000
(20,000)
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2010 2010 2020 2020 2030 2030
New BLS Plus 3% New BLS Plus 3% New BLS Plus 3%
Wisconsin is Open for Business
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Trends
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LITTLE CHANGES EVEN WITH HIGHER LFPRRETIREMENTS SWAMP PARTICIPATION
Source: Bureau of the Census, DOA, OEA
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
PopulationLabor force base caseBLS prj. changeElevated LFPR of 3 percentage points
Wisconsin Population and Labor Force
Wisconsin is Open for Business
October 13, 2011
Wisconsin’s Workforce
Trends
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NURSING WORKFORCE IN WISCONSIN DEMOGRAPHICS AT WORK
Source: Office of Economic Advisors
Wisconsin Nurses by Age
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
< 25 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75 +
Wisconsin is Open for Business
October 13, 2011
Wisconsin’s Workforce
Trends
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QUALITY
Wisconsin is Open for Business
October 13, 2011
Wisconsin’s Workforce
Trends
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THIS IS NOT YOUR FATHER’S ECONOMYIN FACT, THAT WAS AN ABERRATION
Wisconsin is Open for Business
October 13, 2011
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Trends
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"The days are over when you could walk into a paper mill with a high school diploma and run one of the machines."
– Patrick Schillinger, former Wisconsin Paper Council President, Center will teach paper-industry technology, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, JS Online, October 21, 2004.
NEW ECONOMY NEED FOR SKILLS
Wisconsin is Open for Business
October 13, 2011
Wisconsin’s Workforce
Trends
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TURN YOU LOOSE ON THIS BABYI DON’T THINK SO
Wisconsin is Open for Business
October 13, 2011
Wisconsin’s Workforce
Trends
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“Today in most fields I know, the struggle is about creativity and innovation. There is no script.”
– Robert B. Shapiro, former CEO & Chairman, Monsanto Corporation
FUTURE EMPLOYERSNEED FOR CREATIVITY & INNOVATION
Wisconsin is Open for Business
October 13, 2011
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Trends
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Source: Autor, Levy and Murnane, 2003
Nonroutine manual
Routine cognitive
Routine manual
Nonroutine analytical
Nonroutine interactive
WORKPLACE REQUIREMENTSCHANGES IN SKILLS USED AT WORK*
Source: K-12 Education and Economic Summit presentation by Alan B. Krueger, Princeton University
* Based on the Dictionary of Occupational Titles
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October 13, 2011
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Occupations earning greater than $30,000 per year,
require somepost-secondary education.
EQUAL SKILLS NOW REQUIREDNO TWO-TRACKING
Source: Achieve, Inc, OEA.
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October 13, 2011
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WORKFORCE TRENDSARE:
Unprecedented – we have never faced a declining workforce before;
Assured – demographics will change little;
Largely unalterable – demographics and migration patterns do not change abruptly.
Wisconsin is Open for Business
October 13, 2011
Wisconsin’s Workforce
Trends
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RAMIFICATIONS OF WORKFORCE TRENDS ARE:
Potentially devastating – without sufficient productivity gains the state’s economy will stagnate;
Necessitating a focus on talent – large investments in education and training are needed;
Requiring match – talent supply and industry demand must be matched or you lose both.
Wisconsin is Open for Business
October 13, 2011
Wisconsin’s Workforce
Trends
19
Dennis Winters
Phone: 608-267-3262
Email: [email protected]
Website: www.dwd.wisconsin.gov
OEA website: www.dwd.wisconsin.gov/oea
CONTACT INFORMATION