winter outlook for us lng exports and european gas … · 2019. 10. 8. · $4.10 $4.30 $4.50 $4.70...
TRANSCRIPT
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WINTER OUTLOOK
FOR US LNG
EXPORTS AND
EUROPEAN GAS
DEMAND
www.icis.com
Speakers
Ruth LiaoLNG Americas editor
Patrick SykesLNG senior market reporter
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Webinar logistics
This is a live webinar
There will be a Q&A session at the end of the presentation
You can leave your questions in the Q&A box
We will try to answer as many questions as possible at the end of the webinar
The recording and slides will be available a few days after the event
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Agenda: what’s ahead on both sides of the Atlantic this winter
European gas supply and security concerns
EU regulatory/legislative impacts
US LNG flows to Europe
Timelines for new US LNG start-ups
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Europe emerges as key market for US LNG
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
2016 2017 2018 2019
Mill
ion
to
nn
es
Americas Europe Asia Middle East
Source: LNG Edge
www.icis.com
Europe matters for US LNG… if the price is right
Source: LNG Edge
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
2016 2017 2018 2019
$/M
MB
tu
Mill
ion
to
nn
es
Americas Europe Asia Middle East TTF (average) EAX (average)
Biggest European importers of LNG
Biggest European importers of LNG
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Europe enters winter with storage at multiyear highs
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Fulln
ess (
%)
2014-18 min-max range 2018 2019 5-year average
Source: ICIS
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Final permits for Nord Stream 2’s Danish section
Danish environmental permit under consideration
May depend on outcome of trilateral EC-Russia-Ukraine talks
Gazprom has until mid-November for the permit in order to finish final Danish portion of pipeline
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Deadlines approaching for Nord Stream 2
Limited capacity into OPAL, EUGAL
Gazprom says it will meet contractual supply obligations
Third party access: Will Gazprom lose capacity after February 2020?
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Ukraine transit contract – expire or extend?
EC/Russia/Ukraine met 19 September on post-2019 transit
OPAL ruling adds pressure
Russia seeking attractive tariffs and end to arbitration. Ukraine seeking to protect transit revenues
Gazprom injecting 11.4bcm into European storage by year end
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TTF is going global as a reference price
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
TW
h
TTF OTC TTF Exchange
NBP OTC NBP Exchange
Source: ICIS
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TTF is going global as a reference price
Source: ICIS
$3.50
$3.70
$3.90
$4.10
$4.30
$4.50
$4.70
$4.90
$5.10
$5.30
06-09-2019 09-09-2019 10-09-2019 11-09-2019 12-09-2019 13-09-2019
$/M
MB
tu
ICIS East Asia Index ICIS NBP ICIS TTF
2) EAX follows
1) French nuclear concerns, Groningen cut and OPAL ruling drive up TTF
Atlantic basin supply to rise 80% in 4 years
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
West Africa North Africa Arctic Circle Latin America &Caribbean
United States
mtp
a
Atlantic Basin production rate by region, mtpa Q1 2018 - Q4 2021 (ICIS LNG Edge)
Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019
Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020
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US liquefaction sees varying commissioning times
Money Out Money In Money Out
Sabine Pass Train 5, Corpus Christi Train 1 completed by March
Cameron Train 1: first feedgas mid-April, first LNG by late May (~45 days)
Corpus Christi Train 2: LNG production in June, first LNG by early July
Freeport: first cargo H2 August
2019201820172016
Cove Point first LNG by 3 March (88 days from first feedgas)
Sabine Pass Train 3 completed in March
Sabine Pass Train 4 first commissioning cargo August
Cove Point, began feedgas 5 December
Sabine Pass Train 1: first cargo by February
Sabine Pass Train 2 commissioning begins April
Sabine Pass extended maintenance September
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US LNG represents marginal cargo in global markets
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019
Destination for US LNG
Asia Americas Europe
(to
nn
esd
eliv
ered
)
Source: LNG Edge
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Trade war with China continues to stall talks
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
2017 2018 2019 YTD
(mtp
a)
China's tariffs in late 2018 sees immediate impact in US LNG to China
US LNG to rest of Asia US LNG to China % of US LNG to China compared with rest of Asia
(% ch
ange)
Source: LNG Edge
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Post China trade war, US LNG flows to Europe
YTD 2019 tonnes
(January through September)
Source: LNG Edge
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Liquidity underway with growing number of counterparties
0
5
10
15
20
25
Cameron Corpus Christi Cove Point Freeport Sabine Pass
Woodside
Total
Sumitomo
SK E&S
Shell
Pertamina
Pavilion
Osaka
Naturgy
Mitsui
Mitsubishi
KOGAS
JERA
GAIL
Enel
Endesa
EDP
EDF Trading
Cheniere Marketing
Centrica
BP
(mtp
aa)
Source: LNG Edge
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Summary: what to watch this winter
US plant commissioning timelines
Nord Stream 2’s Danish permit (mid-Nov)
Ukraine transit negotiations (year end)
European weather forecasts for Q1
EU Gas Directive implementation (Feb 2020)
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Contact us
Ruth LiaoLNG Americas editor
Patrick SykesLNG senior market reporter
+1 713 525 2635
+44 207 911 1831
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Questions & Answers