why plan for climate change? dr lynette bettio...averaged across the country, 8 of the 10 warmest...
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Why plan for climate
change?
Dr Lynette Bettio
Bureau of Meteorology
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World Economic Forum —
Global Risks Report 2018
Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey of Almost 750 experts and decision-makers in the World Economic
Forum’s multistakeholder communities
Note: Survey respondents were asked to assess the likelihood of the individual global risk on a scale of 1 to 5, 1 representing a risk
that is very unlikely to happen and 5 a risk that is very likely to occur. They also assess the impact on each global risk on a scale of 1
to 5 (1: minimal impact, 2: minor impact, 3: moderate impact, 4: severe impact and 5: catastrophic impact). See Appendix B for more
details. To ensure legibility, the names of the global risks are abbreviated; see Appendix A for the full name and description.
Managing
climate
risk:
A rapidly
changing
landscape
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Clear
impacts are
already
apparent
Increased frequency, intensity, duration and
extent of heatwaves
Prolonged high ocean temperatures
Longer fire season with more extreme fire danger
days
More time spent in drought and hotter droughts
Increased frequency of coastal storm surge
inundation and recession
Greater proportion of rainfall from heavy rainfall
events
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Australia’s
changing
climate
Temperature
Rise of 1.4ºC in Australian land surface temperatures
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Why does
1ºC matter?
Increase in temperature has increased the occurrence
of very warm monthly daytime temperatures
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Australia’s
changing
climate
Temperature
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Averaged across the country, 8 of the 10 warmest days
occurred during January 2019January 2019:
Australia's
hottest month
on record
January 2018 mean
temperature decile
Port August 49.5C
Kerang 47.6C
Borrona
Downs 36.6C
(minimum)
Hobart six days
above 30CABC News, NSW Dust Storm
Adelaide Kent Town
47.7C
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Impacts?Human health
Agriculture
EM sector
Need for cooling
Cost of power
Tourism
The current drought has
had a dramatic effect on
economic output, reducing
farm output by 6 per cent..
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Rainfall
IOCI
SEACI
20 year April-October rainfall
deciles: declines in south
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Lake Hume 2007 Source Image: Wikipedia
Southern
Australia's
decline an
example of
good
adaptation in
cities?
The Indian Ocean Climate Initiative (IOCI) research
partnership established in 1998.
The South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI)
research partnership established in 2005.
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Rainfall
20 year decile of heavy
rainfall days (>25mm)
Wetting over
northern
Australia and
increasing
heavy rain
events
20 year October-April rainfall
deciles: Increases in north
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Australia’s
changing
climate
Fire weather
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Queensland fires
Record heatwaves
Southeast fires
Severe drought
Queensland floods
Timburra Fires Gippsland Helenka King @HelenkaKingTwitter
Summer
2018/19:
When
trends and
variations
come
together
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Two years of
cool season
rainfall
April-October
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Australia hottest summer on recordRecent events
the east
Summer
2018/19
temperature
decile
January 29 fires across Tasmania
Summer 2018/19 Temperatures
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High to record fire danger Recent events
in the east
January/February
Fire Danger
Bunyip fire, ABC News
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Record flooding in
coastal Queensland
Recent events
in the east
Monsoon low over Queensland, 4
February 2019
Flooding in Townsville and
Mt Isa
ABC News
Record high
multi-day
rainfall
widespread
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What are our
options?
"belief in climate
change is
optional, but
participation is
mandatory"
Jim Beever,
southwest
Florida Regional
Planning Council
Australian temperature projections
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More information
www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate
www.csiro.au/state-of-the-climate
Thank you