L I V I O D I M A T T E O , D E P A R T M E N T O F E C O N O M I C S

P R E S E N T A T I O N F O R

C O N N E C T I N G T H E D O T S : D A T A , S T A T I S T I C S , A N D T H E H I S T O R Y O F T H E L A K E H E A D

S A T U R D A Y , M A R C H 4 , 2 0 1 7

Who Had What? A Quantitative Analysis of Wealth and Inequality in the Thunder Bay District Using Probate Data, 1885 to 1930

Wealth Research Projects to Date

�  Wentworth County: 1872-1927 (2516) �  Ontario: 1892 (3515) �  Thunder Bay District: 1885-1930 (2338) �  Ontario: 1902 (3641) �  Manitoba: 1874-1927 (826) �  A total of 12,836 decedents

Some Key Issues

�  Background preparation �  Data sources �  Collection & linkage �  Data input and management �  Choice of quantitative techniques �  Analysis and research �  Research and data dissemination

S E T T L E M E N T , B O O M , W A R I N A N I N T E R N A T I O N A L C O N T E X T

Historical Context: Thunder Bay District & The Lakehead, 1885-1930

Thunder Bay District

�  Source: David Rumsey Map Collection. http://www.oldmapsonline.org.

Lakehead Cities Part of Global Economy

�  Wheat Boom era �  Development of

Lakehead as grain transportation hub &

�  Resource development �  Parallels to other settler

economies around the world

�  Lakehead cities at forefront technologically

Grain Handling at the Lakehead in 1907 and in South Australia, 1915, 1916

1900

1907

Prominent Buildings (Thunder Bay & Adelaide)

Grain Exchange Building, Victoria Avenue, Fort William, 1914

Rundle Street Shop, 1913

The Data

¡  Probated estates for Thunder Bay District, 1885 to 1930 ¡  Source: Ontario County Surrogate Court Probate Records

– Available at Archives of Ontario ¡  Getting estate files:

http://www.archives.gov.on.ca/en/microfilm/c_efile.aspx ÷ Estate files 1885 -1930 are available on microfilm. Available via

interlibrary loan. ÷ Estate files 1931 to 1970 are available at Archives but not

microfilmed. ÷ Post 1970 have not been transferred to Archives, are still at

Courthouses.

What is Probate?-I

÷ PROBATE AN INSTITUTIONAL PROCESS OF PROPERTY TRANSFER FROM DEAD TO LIVING

÷ PROBATE RECORDS ARE RECORDS OF COURTS RESPONSIBLE FOR HANDLING ESTATES OF DECEASED PERSONS

÷ PROBATE SERVED TO AUTHENTICATE THE WILL; PROVIDE EVIDENCE OF CHARACTER OF EXECUTOR

What Is Probate? -II

÷ EXECUTOR CONDUCTED INVENTORY OF PROPERTY

÷  INVENTORY AND VALUATION OF PROPERTY A KEY ASPECT – STATEMENT OF ALL THE GOODS, CHATTELS, WARES AND MERCHANDIZE OF PERSON DECEASED.

÷ PROBATE INVENTORIES HAVE 16 WEALTH/ASSET CATEGORIES

What is Probate? -III

�  Evolution of Probate ¡  1793 Court of Probate ¡  1856 Surrogate Courts Act ¡  1887 Devolution of Estates Act

�  Components of Records ¡  Statement of death, statement of will execution, executor’s

oath, will, codicils, document granting administration, inventory

ASSET CATEGORIES

÷  HOUSEHOLD GOODS ÷  FARM IMPLEMENTS ÷  STOCK IN TRADE ÷  HORSES ÷  CATTLE ÷  SHEEP & SWINE ÷  BOOK DEBTS ÷  MORTAGES ÷  LIFE INSURANCE ÷  STOCKS AND SHARES ÷  SECURITIES ÷  CASH ÷  CASH IN BANK ÷  FARM PRODUCE ÷  REAL ESTATE ÷  OTHER PERSONAL PROPERTY

Variables Available from Probate

÷ WEALTH BY CATEGORY ÷ PLACE OF RESIDENCE ÷ DATE OF DEATH ÷ TESTATE OR INTESTATE ÷ OCCUPATION ÷ MARITAL STATUS ÷ NUMBER OF CHILDREN ÷ GENDER

Potential Disadvantages of Probate

÷ LIFETIME ACCUMULATION ÷ SOCIO-ECONOMIC STATUS ÷ BIAS DUE TO TAXES

¢  Ontario 1892 Succession Duty Act exempted estates under $100,000 with bequests to direct family.

¢  Exemption was reduced in 1905 to about $50,000. ÷  INTERVIVOS TRANSFERS

Example of Data Collection Sheets

Page 1

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The Data

Some Summary Statistics: All Decedents, 1885 to 1930

n 2338 Average Wealth $11,083

Percent Male 76.8 Average Real Estate $3,683

Percent from Fort William 34.8 Average Financial Assets $6,418

Percent from Port Arthur 35.6 Percent Reporting Cash in Bank 46.3

Percent from Rural Lakehead Area 9.8 Percent Reporting Real Estate 68.9

Percent from Rest of Canada 13.2 Percent Reporting Stocks & Shares 12.7

Percent from USA & UK 6.1 Percent Reporting Life Insurance 21.4

Percent Married 55.5 Percent Laborers 10.1

Percent Widow/Widower 16.1 Percent Professional 4.7

Percent Single 28.4 Percent Farmers 10.2

Percent with Children 51.0 Percent Merchants 7.5

LARGEST ESTATES (Nominal Dollars)

NAME   SEX   OCCUPATION   LOCATION   YEAR  PROBATED   TOTAL  WEALTH  

Sir  Eustase  Gurney   M   None   England   1929   $2,417,677  

Alexander  MacDonald   M   None   Winnipeg,  MB   1930   $1,942,688  

Maxwell  Vandeleur  Blacker  Douglass   M   None   Channel  Islands   1930   $992,026  

James  Oliver  Curwood   M   Writer   Owasso,  MI   1928   $899,892  

James  Murphy   M   Coal  Merchant   Fort  William   1928   $750,851  

G.A.  McVicar   M   gentleman   Port  Arthur   1913   $558,989  

Francis  M  McCrea   M   Lumber  Merchant   Sherbrooke,  QC   1927   $443,097  

L.  Walsh   M   coal  merchant   Port  Arthur   1920   $431,240  

William  Samuel  Piper   M   Merchant   Fort  William   1927   $431,188  

W.H.  Hamilton   M   physician   Fort  William   1918   $376,280  

F.E.  Gibbs   M   gentleman   Port  Arthur   1918   $336,280  

M.  Silles   F   none   Fort  William   1913   $330,438  

P.J.  Manion   M   gentleman   Fort  William   1913   $327,181  

George  Herman  RiYner   M   None   England   1928   $281,054  

A.A.  Vickers   M   gentleman   Fort  William   1914   $254,917  

J.  Conmee   M   contractor   Port  Arthur   1914   $245,574  

Jerome  Wheeler   M   Banker   St.  Paul,  MN   1928   $238,616  

R.A.  RuYan   M   real  estate  agent   Port  Arthur   1912   $238,573  

John  Thomas  Blundell   M   None   Winnipeg,  MB   1929   $223,247  

J.G.  King   M   Warehouseman   Port  Arthur   1910   $219,415  

SMALLEST ESTATES (Nominal dollars)

NAME   SEX   OCCUPATION   LOCATION   YEAR  PROBATED   TOTAL  WEALTH  J.A. Macdonell M physician Port Arthur 1900 $0

H. Toole M baker Port Arthur 1902 $0

J. Blackwood M laborer Port Arthur 1902 $0

H. Walsh F none Port Arthur 1906 $0

J. Hellgren M Farmer Paipoonge 1907 $0

W. Haikulo M labourer Fort William 1910 $0

M. Pynttari M section foreman Kashabowie 1911 $0

G. McGorman M physician Port Arthur 1911 $0

V. Keskinen M labourer Fort William 1912 $0

J.L. Hoy M railway employee Fort William 1912 $0

B. Jakich M labourer Port Arthur 1913 $0

A. Lankila M labourer Port Arthur 1913 $0

A. Mann M soldier Fort William 1918 $0

F.I. Tharle F none Fort William 1918 $0

H. Landahl M farmer O'connor 1919 $0

M.L. Light F none Florence, Italy 1920 $0

Charles Jensen M None Port Arthur 1924 $0

Catherine Banks F None Port Arthur 1930 $0

John Dobrowyczky M Salesman Fort William 1922 -$1

Conrad H. D. G. Gehrke M Clergyman Winnipeg 1923 -$3,220

Average Wealth by Time Period

1885 to 1889

1890 to 1894 1895 to 1899 1900 to

1904 1905 to

1909 1910 to 1914 1915 to 1919 1920 to 1924 1925 to 1929

wealth $2,581 $3,472 $2,915 $5,146 $6,188 $10,971 $3,773 $2,670 $9,994 real estate $685 $1,852 $1,407 $2,145 $2,593 $5,506 $1,669 $1,040 $2,732

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

190

0 d

olla

rs

Average Real Wealth ($1900), Thunder Bay District, 1885-1929

Trends in Probate Wealth

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

1880 1885 1890 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935

190

0 d

olla

rs

Axis Title

LOWESS Smooths: Real Wealth, Real Estate and Financial Assets, Thunder Bay District, 1885-1930

rwealthsm3

rrealestsm3

rfinsm3

Portfolio Composition-I

2% 0%

3%

1% 0%

0% 0%

10%

7%

25%

9% 0%

6% 0%

33%

3%

Portfolio Composition, All Decedents, Thunder Bay District, 1885 to 1930 (Average Wealth: $11,083 )

Household Goods and Furniture

Farm Implements and Tools

Stock in Trade

Horses

Horned Cattle

Sheep and Swine

Book Debts and Promissory Notes

Moneys Secured By Mortgage

Life Insurance

Bank Shares and Other Stocks

Securities for money

Cash on Hand

Cash in Bank

Farm Produce

Real Estate

Other Property

Portfolio Composition-II

1% 0%

3%

1% 0% 0%

-2%

11%

3%

39%

13%

0% 3%

0%

21%

2%

Portfolio Composition, Top 1%, Thunder Bay District, 1885 to 1930 (Average Wealth: $526,647)

Household Goods and Furniture

Farm Implements

Stock in Trade

Horses

Horned Cattle

Sheep and Swine

Book Debts and Promissory notes

Moneys Secured by Mortgage

Life Insurance

Bank Shares and Other Stocks

Securities for momey

Cash in Hand

Cash in Bank

Farm Produce

Real Estate

Other Property

Portfolio Composition-III

1% 0% 0% 0%

0% 0%

-7%

2%

0% 3% 2%

3%

39%

0%

33%

10%

Portfolio Composition, Bottom 10%, Thunder Bay District, 1885 to 1930 (Average Wealth: $160)

Household Goods and Furniture

Farm Implements

Stock in Trade

Horses

Horned Cattle

Sheep and Swine

Book Debts and Promissory notes

Moneys Secured by Mortgage

Life Insurance

Bank Shares and Other Stocks

Securities for momey

Cash in Hand

Cash in Bank

Farm Produce

Real Estate

Other Property

Wealth Distribution, Thunder Bay District, All Decedents, 1885 to 1930

78%

8%

5%

3% 2%

2% 1% 1%

0% 0%

1st Decile

2nd Decile

3rd Decile

4th Decile

5th Decile

6th Decile

7th Decile

8th Decile

9th Decile

10th Decile

Piketty Wealth Distribution Pie, Thunder Bay District, All Decedents, 1885 to 1930

48%

30%

18%

4%

Top 1 Percent

Next 9 Percent

Next 40 Percent

Bottom 50 Percent

Gini Coefficients of Inequality (0< G < 1)

0.72

0.65 0.65

0.77 0.77 0.84

0.79

0.69

0.88 0.83

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1885 to 1889 1890 to 1894 1895 to 1899 1900 to 1904 1905 to 1909 1910 to 1914 1915 to 1920 1921 to 1925 1926 to 1930 Entire Period: 1885 to 1930

Gini Coefficients of Wealth Inequality, Thunder Bay District, 1885 to 1930

Average Wealth by Decile, All Decedents, 1885 to 1930

Minimum Maximum 1st Decile $13,550 $2,417,677 2nd Decile $6,600 $13,458 3rd Decile $4,250 $6,600 4th Decile $2,995 $4,235 5th Decile $2,048 $2,995 6th Decile $1,450 $2,042 7th Decile $1,000 $1,450 8th Decile $600 $1,000 9th Decile $315 $600 10th Decile -$3,220 $314

$86,186

$9,010

$5,129

$3,604

$2,482

$1,760

$1,162

$795

$448

$160

1st Decile

2nd Decile

3rd Decile

4th Decile

5th Decile

6th Decile

7th Decile

8th Decile

9th Decile

10th Decile

Average Wealth

Average Wealth by Occupational Group $3

4,35

0

$26,

796

$21,

366

$19,

532

$17,

599

$7,7

83

$7,6

54

$6,8

88

$6,4

18

$5,7

73

$5,0

74

$4,9

03

$4,7

97

$3,7

26

$1,1

22

Average Wealth (nominal dollars), Thunder Bay District, All Decedents, 1885 to 1930

Questions