L I V I O D I M A T T E O , D E P A R T M E N T O F E C O N O M I C S
P R E S E N T A T I O N F O R
C O N N E C T I N G T H E D O T S : D A T A , S T A T I S T I C S , A N D T H E H I S T O R Y O F T H E L A K E H E A D
S A T U R D A Y , M A R C H 4 , 2 0 1 7
Who Had What? A Quantitative Analysis of Wealth and Inequality in the Thunder Bay District Using Probate Data, 1885 to 1930
Wealth Research Projects to Date
� Wentworth County: 1872-1927 (2516) � Ontario: 1892 (3515) � Thunder Bay District: 1885-1930 (2338) � Ontario: 1902 (3641) � Manitoba: 1874-1927 (826) � A total of 12,836 decedents
Some Key Issues
� Background preparation � Data sources � Collection & linkage � Data input and management � Choice of quantitative techniques � Analysis and research � Research and data dissemination
S E T T L E M E N T , B O O M , W A R I N A N I N T E R N A T I O N A L C O N T E X T
Historical Context: Thunder Bay District & The Lakehead, 1885-1930
Thunder Bay District
� Source: David Rumsey Map Collection. http://www.oldmapsonline.org.
Lakehead Cities Part of Global Economy
� Wheat Boom era � Development of
Lakehead as grain transportation hub &
� Resource development � Parallels to other settler
economies around the world
� Lakehead cities at forefront technologically
Grain Handling at the Lakehead in 1907 and in South Australia, 1915, 1916
1900
1907
Prominent Buildings (Thunder Bay & Adelaide)
Grain Exchange Building, Victoria Avenue, Fort William, 1914
Rundle Street Shop, 1913
The Data
¡ Probated estates for Thunder Bay District, 1885 to 1930 ¡ Source: Ontario County Surrogate Court Probate Records
– Available at Archives of Ontario ¡ Getting estate files:
http://www.archives.gov.on.ca/en/microfilm/c_efile.aspx ÷ Estate files 1885 -1930 are available on microfilm. Available via
interlibrary loan. ÷ Estate files 1931 to 1970 are available at Archives but not
microfilmed. ÷ Post 1970 have not been transferred to Archives, are still at
Courthouses.
What is Probate?-I
÷ PROBATE AN INSTITUTIONAL PROCESS OF PROPERTY TRANSFER FROM DEAD TO LIVING
÷ PROBATE RECORDS ARE RECORDS OF COURTS RESPONSIBLE FOR HANDLING ESTATES OF DECEASED PERSONS
÷ PROBATE SERVED TO AUTHENTICATE THE WILL; PROVIDE EVIDENCE OF CHARACTER OF EXECUTOR
What Is Probate? -II
÷ EXECUTOR CONDUCTED INVENTORY OF PROPERTY
÷ INVENTORY AND VALUATION OF PROPERTY A KEY ASPECT – STATEMENT OF ALL THE GOODS, CHATTELS, WARES AND MERCHANDIZE OF PERSON DECEASED.
÷ PROBATE INVENTORIES HAVE 16 WEALTH/ASSET CATEGORIES
What is Probate? -III
� Evolution of Probate ¡ 1793 Court of Probate ¡ 1856 Surrogate Courts Act ¡ 1887 Devolution of Estates Act
� Components of Records ¡ Statement of death, statement of will execution, executor’s
oath, will, codicils, document granting administration, inventory
ASSET CATEGORIES
÷ HOUSEHOLD GOODS ÷ FARM IMPLEMENTS ÷ STOCK IN TRADE ÷ HORSES ÷ CATTLE ÷ SHEEP & SWINE ÷ BOOK DEBTS ÷ MORTAGES ÷ LIFE INSURANCE ÷ STOCKS AND SHARES ÷ SECURITIES ÷ CASH ÷ CASH IN BANK ÷ FARM PRODUCE ÷ REAL ESTATE ÷ OTHER PERSONAL PROPERTY
Variables Available from Probate
÷ WEALTH BY CATEGORY ÷ PLACE OF RESIDENCE ÷ DATE OF DEATH ÷ TESTATE OR INTESTATE ÷ OCCUPATION ÷ MARITAL STATUS ÷ NUMBER OF CHILDREN ÷ GENDER
Potential Disadvantages of Probate
÷ LIFETIME ACCUMULATION ÷ SOCIO-ECONOMIC STATUS ÷ BIAS DUE TO TAXES
¢ Ontario 1892 Succession Duty Act exempted estates under $100,000 with bequests to direct family.
¢ Exemption was reduced in 1905 to about $50,000. ÷ INTERVIVOS TRANSFERS
Example of Data Collection Sheets
Page 1
Page 2
Page 3
The Data
Some Summary Statistics: All Decedents, 1885 to 1930
n 2338 Average Wealth $11,083
Percent Male 76.8 Average Real Estate $3,683
Percent from Fort William 34.8 Average Financial Assets $6,418
Percent from Port Arthur 35.6 Percent Reporting Cash in Bank 46.3
Percent from Rural Lakehead Area 9.8 Percent Reporting Real Estate 68.9
Percent from Rest of Canada 13.2 Percent Reporting Stocks & Shares 12.7
Percent from USA & UK 6.1 Percent Reporting Life Insurance 21.4
Percent Married 55.5 Percent Laborers 10.1
Percent Widow/Widower 16.1 Percent Professional 4.7
Percent Single 28.4 Percent Farmers 10.2
Percent with Children 51.0 Percent Merchants 7.5
LARGEST ESTATES (Nominal Dollars)
NAME SEX OCCUPATION LOCATION YEAR PROBATED TOTAL WEALTH
Sir Eustase Gurney M None England 1929 $2,417,677
Alexander MacDonald M None Winnipeg, MB 1930 $1,942,688
Maxwell Vandeleur Blacker Douglass M None Channel Islands 1930 $992,026
James Oliver Curwood M Writer Owasso, MI 1928 $899,892
James Murphy M Coal Merchant Fort William 1928 $750,851
G.A. McVicar M gentleman Port Arthur 1913 $558,989
Francis M McCrea M Lumber Merchant Sherbrooke, QC 1927 $443,097
L. Walsh M coal merchant Port Arthur 1920 $431,240
William Samuel Piper M Merchant Fort William 1927 $431,188
W.H. Hamilton M physician Fort William 1918 $376,280
F.E. Gibbs M gentleman Port Arthur 1918 $336,280
M. Silles F none Fort William 1913 $330,438
P.J. Manion M gentleman Fort William 1913 $327,181
George Herman RiYner M None England 1928 $281,054
A.A. Vickers M gentleman Fort William 1914 $254,917
J. Conmee M contractor Port Arthur 1914 $245,574
Jerome Wheeler M Banker St. Paul, MN 1928 $238,616
R.A. RuYan M real estate agent Port Arthur 1912 $238,573
John Thomas Blundell M None Winnipeg, MB 1929 $223,247
J.G. King M Warehouseman Port Arthur 1910 $219,415
SMALLEST ESTATES (Nominal dollars)
NAME SEX OCCUPATION LOCATION YEAR PROBATED TOTAL WEALTH J.A. Macdonell M physician Port Arthur 1900 $0
H. Toole M baker Port Arthur 1902 $0
J. Blackwood M laborer Port Arthur 1902 $0
H. Walsh F none Port Arthur 1906 $0
J. Hellgren M Farmer Paipoonge 1907 $0
W. Haikulo M labourer Fort William 1910 $0
M. Pynttari M section foreman Kashabowie 1911 $0
G. McGorman M physician Port Arthur 1911 $0
V. Keskinen M labourer Fort William 1912 $0
J.L. Hoy M railway employee Fort William 1912 $0
B. Jakich M labourer Port Arthur 1913 $0
A. Lankila M labourer Port Arthur 1913 $0
A. Mann M soldier Fort William 1918 $0
F.I. Tharle F none Fort William 1918 $0
H. Landahl M farmer O'connor 1919 $0
M.L. Light F none Florence, Italy 1920 $0
Charles Jensen M None Port Arthur 1924 $0
Catherine Banks F None Port Arthur 1930 $0
John Dobrowyczky M Salesman Fort William 1922 -$1
Conrad H. D. G. Gehrke M Clergyman Winnipeg 1923 -$3,220
Average Wealth by Time Period
1885 to 1889
1890 to 1894 1895 to 1899 1900 to
1904 1905 to
1909 1910 to 1914 1915 to 1919 1920 to 1924 1925 to 1929
wealth $2,581 $3,472 $2,915 $5,146 $6,188 $10,971 $3,773 $2,670 $9,994 real estate $685 $1,852 $1,407 $2,145 $2,593 $5,506 $1,669 $1,040 $2,732
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
190
0 d
olla
rs
Average Real Wealth ($1900), Thunder Bay District, 1885-1929
Trends in Probate Wealth
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
1880 1885 1890 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935
190
0 d
olla
rs
Axis Title
LOWESS Smooths: Real Wealth, Real Estate and Financial Assets, Thunder Bay District, 1885-1930
rwealthsm3
rrealestsm3
rfinsm3
Portfolio Composition-I
2% 0%
3%
1% 0%
0% 0%
10%
7%
25%
9% 0%
6% 0%
33%
3%
Portfolio Composition, All Decedents, Thunder Bay District, 1885 to 1930 (Average Wealth: $11,083 )
Household Goods and Furniture
Farm Implements and Tools
Stock in Trade
Horses
Horned Cattle
Sheep and Swine
Book Debts and Promissory Notes
Moneys Secured By Mortgage
Life Insurance
Bank Shares and Other Stocks
Securities for money
Cash on Hand
Cash in Bank
Farm Produce
Real Estate
Other Property
Portfolio Composition-II
1% 0%
3%
1% 0% 0%
-2%
11%
3%
39%
13%
0% 3%
0%
21%
2%
Portfolio Composition, Top 1%, Thunder Bay District, 1885 to 1930 (Average Wealth: $526,647)
Household Goods and Furniture
Farm Implements
Stock in Trade
Horses
Horned Cattle
Sheep and Swine
Book Debts and Promissory notes
Moneys Secured by Mortgage
Life Insurance
Bank Shares and Other Stocks
Securities for momey
Cash in Hand
Cash in Bank
Farm Produce
Real Estate
Other Property
Portfolio Composition-III
1% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0%
-7%
2%
0% 3% 2%
3%
39%
0%
33%
10%
Portfolio Composition, Bottom 10%, Thunder Bay District, 1885 to 1930 (Average Wealth: $160)
Household Goods and Furniture
Farm Implements
Stock in Trade
Horses
Horned Cattle
Sheep and Swine
Book Debts and Promissory notes
Moneys Secured by Mortgage
Life Insurance
Bank Shares and Other Stocks
Securities for momey
Cash in Hand
Cash in Bank
Farm Produce
Real Estate
Other Property
Wealth Distribution, Thunder Bay District, All Decedents, 1885 to 1930
78%
8%
5%
3% 2%
2% 1% 1%
0% 0%
1st Decile
2nd Decile
3rd Decile
4th Decile
5th Decile
6th Decile
7th Decile
8th Decile
9th Decile
10th Decile
Piketty Wealth Distribution Pie, Thunder Bay District, All Decedents, 1885 to 1930
48%
30%
18%
4%
Top 1 Percent
Next 9 Percent
Next 40 Percent
Bottom 50 Percent
Gini Coefficients of Inequality (0< G < 1)
0.72
0.65 0.65
0.77 0.77 0.84
0.79
0.69
0.88 0.83
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1885 to 1889 1890 to 1894 1895 to 1899 1900 to 1904 1905 to 1909 1910 to 1914 1915 to 1920 1921 to 1925 1926 to 1930 Entire Period: 1885 to 1930
Gini Coefficients of Wealth Inequality, Thunder Bay District, 1885 to 1930
Average Wealth by Decile, All Decedents, 1885 to 1930
Minimum Maximum 1st Decile $13,550 $2,417,677 2nd Decile $6,600 $13,458 3rd Decile $4,250 $6,600 4th Decile $2,995 $4,235 5th Decile $2,048 $2,995 6th Decile $1,450 $2,042 7th Decile $1,000 $1,450 8th Decile $600 $1,000 9th Decile $315 $600 10th Decile -$3,220 $314
$86,186
$9,010
$5,129
$3,604
$2,482
$1,760
$1,162
$795
$448
$160
1st Decile
2nd Decile
3rd Decile
4th Decile
5th Decile
6th Decile
7th Decile
8th Decile
9th Decile
10th Decile
Average Wealth
Average Wealth by Occupational Group $3
4,35
0
$26,
796
$21,
366
$19,
532
$17,
599
$7,7
83
$7,6
54
$6,8
88
$6,4
18
$5,7
73
$5,0
74
$4,9
03
$4,7
97
$3,7
26
$1,1
22
Average Wealth (nominal dollars), Thunder Bay District, All Decedents, 1885 to 1930
Questions