Copernicus

Atmosphere

Monitoring

Service

CAMS General Assembly, Athens, 14-16 June 2016

Thomas Popp (DLR for CAMS-94 User Interaction)

Who are CAMS users today?

2

Main user categories

Interim / downstream users of …

… global and regional boundary condition forecasts

… emission databases, NRT fire products

Direct users of …

… atmospheric composition re-analysis, NRT for science

… policy-relevant assessments

… value-added GHG and aerosol forcing services

… radiation products for solar energy

inside

3

Where are our users? (MACC-III)

4

Where are our users? (CAMS reanalysis active in 2016)

5

Who are our users? – Numbers evolutionService

Number of Users/ Requests

for data 1/1/2015

Number of Users/ Requests

for data 1/4/2016Latest updates (1/6/2016)

Global atmospheric

composition NRT analyses &

forecasts

255 users 506 users 538 users

European Air quality NRT

analyses & forecasts155 users 277 users

Global atmospheric

composition reanalysis1600 users 2256 users 2621 users

Greenhouse gas fluxes 40 users 121 users 139 users

Solar Radiation ~1000 requests / year ~3000 requests / year

Users of the ftp service for

global products40 users 59 users 74 users

Anthropogenic and fire

emissions1773 users (716 institutes) 2200 users (800 institutes)

User queries tracking system 318 requests 551 requests 725 requests

6

Who are our users? – Numbers evolution

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

global NRT

Euro NRT

GHG fluxes

ftp global

queries

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Global reanal

Solar

fire/emis

7

CAMS as core service: free and easy use

8

CAMS supports operational services: WMO SDS-WAS

Surface concentration

from 6-Apr-2016 12:00 to 9-Apr-2016 00:00

9

Global public information

Record Indonesian wildfire emissions 2015

10

Aerosol users

• regional AQ for their boundary conditions

• WMO regional node for sand and dust storm forecasting

• climate forcing calculations (CAMS74) and other similar research usage

• solar surface radiation climatologies

• a new potential user: improved atmospheric corrections for Sentinel-2

• Further tentative users

• aviation as sea spray may be a hazard to aircraft

sea salt could affect wind energy production

11

Greenhouse gas users

• Research scientists -> publications for wider outreach

• ~ 15 institutes for the 3 species (CO2, CH4, N2O)

• outstanding high power users

• IPCC WG 1

• Global Carbon Project (for CO2 only)

•

• CAMS provides

• the longest CO2 reanalysis of the surface measurements (1979-...)

• one of the highest horizontal global resolution (currently 3.75 deg x 1.9 deg)

• for IPCC: the only satellite-based CH4 reanalysis

12

New Climate Forcing service users

• Main user types: academics/researchers

• Numbers: ~5-20

• Outstanding user: IPCC

• plan to extend towards policy makers and NGOs

RFMIP, AerChemIP and DCPP http://www.geosci-model-dev-discuss.net/8/10539/2015/gmdd-8-10539-2015.pdfUNFCCC, the aim “to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century” (article 4 of the Paris Agreement) can be understood as a stabilization of the forcing by well-mixed greenhouse gases. CAMS74 can contribute to

monitor progress towards this goal.IPCC AR6, 1.5°C special report

A graduate student at Princeton University“I'm a graduate student at Princeton University. My current project focuses on the effect of air pollution

on surface radiation. I have researched on several reanalysis and satellite-derived products. MACC interests me in that the aerosol radiative forcing product provides attributions of the forcing to anthropogenic and natural aerosols, which no other products (NASA's or NOAA's) provide according to my knowledge. I was wondering if more detailed calculated radiation, e.g. direct and diffusive radiative forcing due to anthropogenic and natural aerosols, is available in your dataset. If so, is it possible for me

to get access?It would be greatly appreciated if you could provide more insights on the uncertainty and caveats of using these data.”Answer: Radiative forcing on direct and diffuse fluxes is not included, but we could consider adding those terms in the version to be released in August 2016. For uncertainties and caveats, Charles has been

directed to Bellouin et al. (2013).

13

Usage of European air quality ensembles (ftp server)

2016 Quarter 1

Number of files delivered 577,446

Number of users (or IP used) 97

Volumetry of data exchanged (Gigabyte) 2,229

Use of ENS in NETCDF format (%) 33,67%

Use of ENS in GRIB2 format (%) 21,67%

Number of registered users (European AQ NRT analyses and forecasts)

277

A testimonial

"We use the CAMS Regional Ensemble forecast as boundary

conditions for our local high-resolution city-scale dispersion

model ADMS-Urban, as part of the airTEXT air quality forecasting

service for London and South East England. We need NO, NO2, ozone and NMVOC from CAMS for the NOX chemistry scheme in

our model.„

14

Radiation service users

05

1015202530354045 Registered active users per quarter in 2016

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

0

200

400

600

800

1000 Number of requests per quarter in 2016

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

18

280

40

Registered active usersquarter #1 2016

Fromcompanies

Researchers /Academics

Policy agencies

Unknown type

468

916

0475

Number of requestsquarter #1 2016

From companies

Researchers /Academics

Policy agencies

Unknown type

15

16

Who are our users? – Numbers (MACC-III, 1/1/2015)

Service Number of Users/ Requests for data

Global NRT Analyses & Forecasts 225 users

Regional NRT Analyses & Forecasts 155 users

Global Reanalysis 1600 users

GHG flux inversions 40 users

Solar Radiation ~1000 requests/year

Global ftp 40 users

Emissions, fire 1773 users (716 institutes)

User queries tracking system 318 items until 8/1/2015

17

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – AR5 (2013), Chapter 7: “The best estimate [of RFari] is taken as –0.35 Wm–2. This is

the same as the AeroCom II model estimate, and also the average of the Myhre

(2009) observationally-based estimate (–0.3 Wm–2) and the Bellouin et al. (2013)

reanalysis estimate (–0.4 Wm–2).”

– “The 5–95% range of RFari adopted in this assessment employs the Bellouin et al.

(2013) uncertainty to account for retrieval error in observational quantities when

constrained by global models”.

• International research community

New Climate Forcing service users

18

Who are our users? – categories (MACC-III)

global

commercial

governmental

science

other

regional

commercial

governmental

science

other

solar

commercial

governmental

science

other