where are the data?iussp.org/.../event_call_for_papers/mm_iussp_climate.pdf · 2013. 8. 22. ·...
TRANSCRIPT
Where Are the Data?
Where Are the Data?Sources and Challenges in the Population–Climate Change
Relationship
Mark R. Montgomery
Stony Brook University and Population Council
August 22, 2013
Where Are the Data?
Environmental Threats
Sudden-onset extreme weather events: Flooding, fromhurricanes and typhoons as well as heavy inland precipitation
Women, children, and elderly disproportionately harmed
Gradual-onset conditions: In arid regions, increasing waterscarcity with implications for rural and urban dwellers(especially the poor) and for rural-urban migration.
Where Are the Data?
Social Science Research on Adaptation in Low-IncomeCountriesWhere’s Our Comparative Advantage?
Estimating numbers and characteristics of the poor and vulnerableexposed to sudden-onset and gradual-onset environmental risks.
Developing new methods for recording localized, smaller-scaledisasters
Forecasting population growth in risky areas
Engagement at the country level increasingly important asinternational funds for disaster risk adaptation become available
Community-level interventions: Disaster risk reduction. Sensitive toneeds of women, adolescents, the elderly, and the poor. Create linksto local government
Provision of quantitative data to humanitarian and developmentagencies.
Where Are the Data?
Consider Residents of Cities and Towns
Poor countries are approaching urban majorities
Some extreme-weather events (e.g., flooding) repeatedlystrike city-dwellers, harming lives and livelihoods
Apart from national censuses, demographers collect little orno city-specific data
Majority of urban residents live in small- and intermediate-sizecities. Mayors and planners operate with little information ontheir populations; limited abilities to anticipate risks and guidelocal development
Where Are the Data?
Spatially-Specific Data Are EssentialWeather and climate risks differ by location within a country
Where Do We Find Such Spatially Detailed Information?
National censuses collect fine spatial detail—but in poorcountries are rarely mapped and disaggregated
Sample surveys are samples, too small to reliably portrayspecific locations
But censuses, survey programs, and a host of researchinitiatives are generating streams of spatially-codeddata—much of this from outside demography proper
There is vastly more spatial data available today than fiveyears ago!
Where Are the Data?
Who is at Risk? Mapping Demographic Data
1 Sub-national census and survey (DHS, MICS) data on populationnumbers and composition
2 High resolution population density rasters, from Andy Tatem’s team
3 DHS sampling cluster coordinates fairly precise spatially
4 Measures of city population size (UN Population Division;www.geonames.org; others)
5 Measures of city spatial extents (night-time lights, Viirs,LandSat, even higher-resolution)
Where Are the Data?
Sub-National BoundariesDHS site providing shapefiles to debut in early September 2013
Where Are the Data?
Ghana’s Population Density and Proxies for It2010 raster (AfriPop) and 2009 NOAA lights
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Where Are the Data?
Inland Flooding Risks in GhanaEstimates from the Dartmouth Flood Observatory Models
Where Are the Data?
Current and Future Urban ExposureUN Cities Database: Time-series of Population by City
Where Are the Data?
Small and Large Cities from www.geonames.orgMany More Small Cities (but only one time-point apiece)
Where Are the Data?
DHS Urban Clusters, Surveys from 1993 to 2008
Where Are the Data?
Estimates of City Exposure to Flooding RisksBalk et al. (2013) for Asia, IUSSP Session Tomorrow
City population at riskCoastal Hazards (LECZ) Inland Flooding
Estimates (000s) for year 2000
- 2,000 4,000 6,000
Dhaka
Wuhan
Bangkok
Shanghai
Tokyo
Quezon City-Manila
Ho Chi Minh City
Tianjin
Delhi
Kolkata
Nanjing
Shenzhen
Pusan
Hangzhou
Changsha
Palembang
Patna
Phnum Penh
Zhenjiang
Ha Noi
Where Are the Data?
Conclusions
Demographers and other social scientists have much tocontribute on climate change adaptation and disaster riskreduction
We’ve not yet engaged with these issues, hampered by the(perceived) lack of spatially-coded demographic data
The situation is rapidly improving—essential descriptions ofexposure to risk are now possible
But nothing substitutes for spatially disaggregated censusdata. Fine disaggregation and mapping of census data shouldbe the norm for national statistical agencies.
How can we make that happen?