where are our calories coming from?

WHERE ARE OUR CALORIES COMING FROM? ACTIONS BEING TAKEN TO IMPROVE NUTRITION

Euromonitor International Introduces Passport Nutrition

http://www.euromonitor.com/


© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 2INDUSTRY: SECTOR

Passport Nutrition is Euromonitor International’s latest research offering and provides unique insight into the world of nutrition and the dynamic it shapes between business, government and the consumer. The system covers 54 countries and looks at the following eight nutrients: Energy (calories) Protein Carbohydrate Sugar Fat Saturated fat Fibre Salt

Passport Nutrition provides three key areas on analysis:

1. Analysis of the nutritional intake of the population

The average intake of eight different nutrients on a per person per day basis is available for 54 countries. This information is also split by product category, to the lowest available level.

2. View the nutrition composition of food and beverage products

The nutritional information per 100g of product is available for over 50,000 packaged food and soft drink products.

3. Review company and brand contributions

The nutritional information is also available by company and by brand.

Introducing Passport NutritionINTRODUCTION




The methodology is simple: we collect the nutrition information from product labels and apply it to our already published volumes and brand shares. This gives us the amount of each nutrient consumed from each brand and product category. Doing this for all packaged food and soft drink products builds a picture of what types of foods people are eating and how they contribute to dietary intake.

Research methodology for Passport NutritionINTRODUCTION




ObjectivesINTRODUCTION

The core objective of this report is to map out the purchasing of calories and other nutrients, including sugar and fat, on a per person per day basis, at a global, regional and country level.

It then aims to break this down by packaged food and soft drink category, identifying the key contributors to calorie purchasing in different countries. This should shed insight on how diets vary around the world and how the significance of different categories varies from country to country.

This briefing also gives an overview of the main legislative and voluntary actions that have been taken so far in an attempt to stop the rising rates of overweight and obesity. By using a country case study approach, it will put key actions – junk food and soft drink taxes, agricultural subsidies, voluntary agreements and reformulation – into context, using nutrition data specific to certain categories and nutrients.

It then examines the potential challenges the food and nutrition world will have to address in the future, using forecast data that run from 2014-2019.




INTRODUCTION

Key findings

The world buys 1.5 trillion calories a day

The average global consumer purchases 765 calories each day through packaged food and soft drinks. While this seems low (given the recommended intake is around 2,000 for an adult), it is a global average. Countries in North America and Western Europe purchase over 1,500 calories, while in India it is 150 and in China it is 510.

Bread could be Mexico’s downfall

As a result of the high and growing prevalence of obesity, Mexico has implemented a tax on junk food products. It is the country that buys the most calories per capita per day, with 40% coming from bread alone, a product that it excluded from legislation.

12g of sugar is purchased within soft drinks on a per capita per day basis

While soft drinks contain comparatively little sugar per 100g/ml compared to other categories, such as confectionery, cakes, pastries, and sweet and savoury snacks, it is the single largest contributing category to total sugar purchasing. With the WHO expected to halve the guideline for added sugar intake, and countries such as Mexico, France and California in the US already implementing taxes, it seems that legislation regarding soft drinks is only going to get tighter.

Taxes on individual nutrients might not be effective

Denmark’s tax on saturated fat failed after the industry argued that it was ineffective. While calories from fat represent 40% of the total calories purchased, taxing one nutrient is complex and unlikely to succeed.

Overconsumption of calories is set to worsen

Based solely on packaged food and beverage forecast volumes, if it is assumed that the calorie content of products does not change over the next five years then the average global consumer will be buying 90 more calories a day in 2019 compared to 2014.




The world buys 1.5 trillion calories each dayOn average, the world purchases 765 calories per capita per day in packaged food and soft drinks. There is significant geographical variation, but at the global level, bakery is the single largest contributor, at around 200 calories per capita per day. Within bakery, over half of these calories come from bread alone. This is higher in countries in the Middle East and Africa and Latin America, where bread is heavily subsidised and is traditionally the main staple.

Fats and oils are the top contributing categoryGiven that they are essentially pure fat, oils and fats contain the highest number of calories per 100g, so it is perhaps unsurprising that it is the second largest category contributing to total calories. While the average global consumer buys 140 calories of fats and oil a day, a lot of oil is wasted after cooking and frying, meaning it is likely to contribute less to actual intake. Dairy, soft drinks and confectionery combined contribute around 25% of intake.

Global calorie intake from packaged food and soft drinksTHE WORLD’S EXPANDING WAISTLINE

27%

18%

15%

11%

8%

4%

4%

13%

Average Global Calorie Intake by Product Category 2014

Bakery Oils and Fats Dried Processed Food

Dairy Soft Drinks Confectionery

Snacks Others




Western Europe North America Australasia Latin America Eastern Europe Middle East and Africa

Asia Pacific0

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Average Calorie Consumption by Region 2014

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itaWestern Europe and North America eat the mostTHE WORLD’S EXPANDING WAISTLINE

Western Europe and North America are the two regions with the largest nutritional intake In North America, an average of 188 calories are consumed on a daily per capita basis from soft drinks alone, which represents 12% of total energy intake. Bakery, which includes biscuits, bread, cakes and pastries, is the single largest contributor to calorie intake in both regions. Thanks to Europe’s dependence on small local bakeries and patisseries, Western Europe consumes 250 calories more per capita from unpackaged bread than North America.

Energy intake in Asia Pacific is considerably lower Whilst Asia is the fastest growing packaged food market globally, penetration of packaged products in markets like India, Vietnam and Thailand remains relatively low, especially amongst rural consumers. Another thing to consider when looking at Asia Pacific is that consumer foodservice sales reached US$1.1 trillion in 2014, which represents two thirds of all money consumers spend on food.




Industry reacts by building healthier product portfoliosACTIONS TO CURB APPETITES

The soft drinks industry argues that consumer choice is key to tackling obesity, and that soft drinks can play a part in a balanced diet if lifestyles are healthy and active. As well as funding activity programmes and adopting front-of-pack labelling, nearly all the big players have made commitments to alter their product portfolios to help consumers to make healthier choices, including launching new variants and smaller packaging sizes of leading brands. Over the last two years, there have been many new product developments, including the launch of Pepsi True and Coca Cola Life, which are partially sweetened with stevia and contain 30% less sugar than their regular counterparts.

While the launch of reduced sugar products is a step forward, given that standard brands have a strong identity and the largest volume sales, reformulating standard products to contain less sugar, or reducing the regular pack size, would have a much wider impact than launching new products. In parts of Western Europe, regular Sprite has been reformulated to contain 30% less calories. If all soft drinks globally were reformulated to provide the same reduction, then 90 billion fewer calories would be purchased from soft drinks every day. There is, however, the risk that the launch of reduced sugar products could contribute more calories being purchased if consumers switch from buying a calorie-free product to a calorie-reduced product instead.




Media attention shifts to sugar as the “bad nutrient” but fat still an important target for reformulationThe reformulation of products high in fat, such as ready meals, pizza, snacks and baked foods, continues to be encouraged, and trans-fats – fats with a particular structure that are linked to high cholesterol – have been banned in a number of countries. The average global consumer purchases around 35g of fat from packaged food and soft drinks a day, and the majority of this is from vegetable and seed oil, a proportion of which will be thrown away after cooking rather than being consumed. Sales of low-fat dairy products reached US$70 billion globally in 2014, representing 15% of total sales, thanks mostly to their wide availability in Western markets.

Dairy a significant contributor to fat purchasedDespite the popularity of low-fat products, dairy makes up 11% of total fat purchased from packaged food and soft drinks, and being naturally high in saturated fat also means that the category represents 22% of all saturated fat purchased. Vegetable oil is an important ingredient and cooking medium for bakery and snack products, meaning that these categories also contribute significant amounts to fat intake.

Fat is still a target for reformulationACTIONS TO CURB APPETITES

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Fat Purchased From Packaged Food and Soft Drinks Globally by Category 2014

Others

Confectionery

Sauces, Dress-ings and Con-diments

Chilled Pro-cessed Food

Sweet and Savoury Snacks

Dairy

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Oils and Fats

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The global consumer could be buying 90 more calories a day by 2019…Based on packaged food and beverage forecast volumes, if the calorie content of products does not change over 2014-2019, then the average global consumer will be buying 90 more calories a day in 2019 compared to 2014. This is higher in some regions than others, with Asia Pacific and the Middle East and Africa seeing their average calorie purchase increase by nearly 130 kcal a day, mostly thanks to increased availability of packaged products. Clearly, concerted efforts by government and industry to reformulate products and offer new products and portion sizes will need to continue.

…when consuming 100 calories a day less could prevent the current trajectory in obesity prevalenceThe UK government has recognised that a reduction in calorie intake of 100 kcal a day would be likely to halt the current rising trend in obesity and correct energy imbalance, hence its efforts to remove 5 billion calories a day from the UK population’s diet. While this is a national target, the number of calories purchased per person per day is forecast to increase in every region of the world other than North America. If rising overweight and obesity levels are to be curbed, then both governments and industry are likely to need to step up their efforts to tackle the problem.

Number of calories purchased could potentially rise up to 2019CHALLENGES FOR THE FUTURE




If other nations were to follow the target set by the UK and reduce the daily calorie intake of the population by 100 calories per capita, in an attempt to reduce the rate of obesity, then what would that mean for what people are eating? Data from Passport Nutrition show what reductions in weight or volume of certain product categories would be required to hit the 100kcal target.

Country Top contributing category to calorie purchase

Volume reduction (g/ml) of that category required to hit 100kcal reduction target

Australia Packaged hard cheese 27g

Brazil Vegetable/seed oil 12g

France Chilled processed meat 34g

Germany Butter 14g

Mexico Standard regular cola 234ml

US Bulk dairy ice cream 51g

United Kingdom Spreadable fats and oils 19g

Is reducing calorie purchase by 100 kcal per person per day achievable?

CHALLENGES FOR THE FUTURE

Reducing the intake of one category alone is not the solution to rising obesity rates, and the data laid out above are looking at a total population level – those who are overweight and obese will need to reduce their intakes more to lose weight. However, it is clear that reducing the amount of calories a population consumes by 100 a day is not unreasonable, given that the amount of food required to hit this is generally no more than one serving size. How this is achieved, whether it be by stronger education initiatives, introducing taxes or voluntary agreements, is up to governments and public health bodies.




Forecast calorie purchase is set to decline in the US…The US is one of 12 countries where the purchase of calories is expected to be lower in 2019 than in 2014. Declining volume sales of bread, milk, cola carbonates, vegetable and seed oil, biscuits and confectionery are expected to contribute a significant proportion of the 45 calorie decline over the forecast period. While this is definitely a move in the right direction, the US has one of the highest rates of obesity in the world and so more needs to be done than relying solely on declining volume sales.

…but sales of better-for-you products do not appear to be the solutionEncouraging consumers to make healthier choices is a method favoured over legislation by manufacturers, retailers and governments alike. However, in the US, sales of better-for-you products that are low in sugar, fat and salt declined by US$4.3 billion in real terms over 2009 and 2014. Products that are marketed as “reduced” are thought of by some consumers as being poorer in flavour and taste compared to their “full-fat” variants. Instead, health conscious consumers are switching to preparing their own meals from fresh food and moving to packaged products that are marketed as being naturally healthy. This is important for manufacturers to note when considering their product portfolios and trying to increase the range of healthier offerings.

Low-fat and low-sugar products are not the answerCHALLENGES FOR THE FUTURE

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201940,000

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Retail Value Sales of Better-for-You Food and Beverage Products 2009-2019

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Sales of “fit bands” soar since their launchOver the last two years there have been significant developments in wearable technology, including “fit bands”, which measure the number of steps a person has taken, calories burned over the day, heart rate and other health factors. While they might be a useful aid for someone losing weight, they appeal mostly to people who are interested in fitness and generally are already healthy and active, and are therefore unlikely to have any significant impact on obesity.

Mobile phone applications aid consumers in making healthier food choicesThere is also a wide range of applications that record calorie intake and help make healthier food choices easier, with some allowing the user to scan a product’s barcode and offer more healthy substitutes. While the use of such applications is positive, the cost and availability of the technology means it is most likely to be used only by middle-class consumers in developed countries, ruling out the large overweight population in emerging markets and low-income groups in Western markets, where obesity rates are higher. While technology has ensured that it has never been easier to make a healthy choice when it comes to food, it is going to take more than consumers switching to diet carbonates to reverse the trend in obesity rates.

Technology ensures that making a healthy choice has never been easier

CHALLENGES FOR THE FUTURE




Double current efforts or prepare for tighter legislationRECOMMENDATIONS

If obesity rates are to be lowered, tighter legislation seems inevitable

The public health and economic cost of diet related disease is growing and so changes to agricultural subsidies, taxes and marketing restrictions are being considered by policy makers. The rest of the food system needs to increase its current efforts if it is to avoid this, or take action to prepare the business for a tighter regulatory environment.

Governments should not shun responsibility entirely onto consumers

While food choices are the ultimate responsibility of the consumer, governments need to make every effort to ensure that fresh, healthy and affordable food is more widely available. Reviewing the level of agricultural subsidies, which contribute to the low prices of processed food, may be a good starting point.

The food industry needs to move up a gear

Big players have made efforts to improve their ranges of healthy products, and reformulate and clearly label their products. However, small and medium sized manufacturers need to follow suit, and key brands should be considered for reformulation in order to have the most widespread impact on the consumption of calories.

Retailers should consider what promotions they allow and the position of impulse products in their stores

The heavy promotion of processed foods and the positioning of impulse products at the ends of aisles and checkouts can contribute to over-consumption of products high in sugar fat and salt. Retailers may want to follow Lidl and Tesco in the UK by only placing healthy snacks at checkouts.



where are our calories coming from?

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