what's trending in nato commercial technologies and games
DESCRIPTION
Slides accompanying paper.TRANSCRIPT
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Behind the
Page:
Text Analysis
Uncovers Trends
011 01000111101010 1001001001001001001001110100101001001001011010001010101010010100101001010010010011010010110
Jay Gendron, SimIS Inc.
www.linkedin.com/in/jaygendron
Hampton Roads, Virginia April 15-17, 2014
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Consider…
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The Plan
• Understand the Problem (Use Case)
• Look at Past Predictions. Met?
• Analysis – speed boat, not SCUBA dive
• Results of Analysis
• Trends in Commercial Technologies and
Gamification
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Problem (NATO Use Case)
Management Questions
• What are trends in industry and gamification?
• Have we met the predictions?
• How do we know this?
2003
Small Biz…
2008
Predictions
2013
Now What
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Predictions
1. Highly realistic scenarios would become affordable those outside military training
2. Training games would be become more realistic than those for entertainment
3. New types of training scenarios would drive new types of training technologies
4. Joint missions would drive interoperable solutions
5. End-user experience would command greater emphasis in development processes
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Analysis Plan
Workshop Date and Location Page Count
MSG-074 May 18 – 20, 2009; Farnborough, UK 12
MSG-078 September 22-24, 2009; Suffolk, US 4
MSG-093 November 2-4, 2010; Rome, IT 12
MSG-108 October 25-28, 2011; Farnborough, UK 24
MSG-113 April 16-18, 2012; Genoa, IT 31
MSG-114 November 13-15, 2013; Kjeller, NO 35
MSG-130 October 9-11, 2013; La Spezia, IT 39
Topic Model LSA/SVD
Cluster Analysis
Topic Definition
Topic Traces
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Topic Model
ID Importance Topic Keys
A 1.34305
mr nato game technologies learning provided development dr system immersive buck virtual presentation education games examples commercial technical world
2 0.04586
italy genoa immersive information university bruzzone fear diptem scorm thurkettle lms april plans web united procedural miss busetta belief
3 0.09772
maritime navy things data people domain includes noted naval threats series number effects platform cmre knowledge team large case
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Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA)
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Singular Value Decomposition
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Clustering
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Topic “Gut Check” from Clusters
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Topic Definition – People Power
Topic ID: 1 Topic: Immersive Learning Environments for Education and Training
Topic Keys:
italy,genoa,immersive,information,university,bruzzone,fear,diptem,scorm,thurkettle,lms,april,plans,web,united,p
rocedural,miss,busetta,belief
Topic ID: 2 Topic: Assessing Pedagogical Effectiveness of Maritime Training
Topic Keys:
maritime,navy,things,data,people,domain,includes,noted,naval,threats,series,number,effects,platform,cmre,know
ledge,team,large,case
Topic ID: 5 Topic: Social Media Dimension of Gamification Topic Keys:
gave,worlds,garcia,learners,aims,free,simulation,gamification,crowd,johnny,november,digital,cdr,social,traditio
nal,technology,supervision,unlimited,coffee
Topic ID: 6 Topic: Future of Commercially Available Games in Military
Applications
Topic Keys:
mosbe,bluefor,dive,civilian,lto,big,test,actual,fit,subject,simon,sensurprys,summation,versus,programme,strategi
es,back,belief,insurgency
Topic ID: 8 Topic: Human Dimension of Serious Games Implementation
Topic Keys:
figure,norway,transmedia,guest,server,ffi,players,massively,mmo,illusion,persistence,member,social,diablo,tank
s,motivation,observer,sondergaard,raybourn
Topic ID: 9 Topic: Technical Dimension of Serious Games Implementation
Topic Keys:
interfaces,topic,fawkes,morrison,common,chair,cloud,security,mod,commercial,devices,ltc,garcia,architecture,t
hurkettle,graphics,processes,talking,physical
Topic ID: 11 Topic: Virtual Worlds in Evolution of Immersive Training
Topic Keys:
virtual,world,worlds,presented,language,coe,roman,act,vbs,overview,called,required,paul,culture,investigation,t
hurkettle,framework,center,spruill
Topic ID: 13 Topic: Open Source and User-Created Content
Topic Keys:
day,applications,tracing,ray,workshop,proprietary,realism,worlds,licensing,mod,access,attendance,simply,alterna
tive,cojack,insurgent,product,offer,investment
Topic ID: 14 Topic: Immersive Military Training
Topic Keys:
vbs,open,game,military,application,presentation,cots,world,real,uk,ai,time,source,end,based,make,qinetiq,realist
ic,products
Topic ID: 21 Topic: Market Trends for Procurement of Military Gaming
Technologies
Topic Keys:
user,source,terrains,techniques,bistudio,wg,xpi,learning,scenarios,potential,main,engine,fact,found,benefit,norw
ay,roughsedge,aos,ways
Topic ID: 23 Topic: Selection Criteria in Procuring Military Gaming Technologies
Topic Keys:
companies,esp,afmp,noted,force,player,builder,considered,french,op,community,visual,produced,study,briefed,c
ommand,detail,tr,careful
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Topics Overlaid on Cluster
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Finding 1: Scenario realism continues to improve and
shows an association with the level of discussion of social
media and the human dimension during workshops
Recommendation: Future events should strive to balance discussions on technological and human dimension topics by considering different use cases at each event.
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Finding 2: Discussions focused on solving new
requirements tend to lag the introduction of the topic by
three workshop events.
Recommendation: Workshop planners should use an outreach plan to align topic introduction with desired solution timeframe and assume an 18-month lead-time for a trend to emerge.
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Finding 3: Discussions focused on user experience have
emerged within the workshop reports and persist in current
discourse
Recommendation: Process topics seem a likely evolution from technology to people to process. Harness user experience discourse to highlight process-oriented games and training requirements.
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Finding 4: Assessment of training effectiveness, return on
investment, and time efficiencies recently emerged as a
workshop topic and this will likely continue
Recommendation: Assessment includes topics ranging from pedagogy to return on investment to time savings. Extend calls for papers on these topics for future workshops.
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Qualitative Trends
Technology Industry Government Massive Open
Online Course (MOOC)
Mobile Learning Technologies
Alternate Reality Games (ARG)
Networks and
Architectures
Open Source or Proprietary
Understanding the Needs of Government eLearning
MOOCs as a Disrupting Technology
Standards for Gaming
Collaboration Architecture for
MOOCs Augmented Reality
and Virtual Worlds
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Summary
• Management
questions on ROI
• Predictions stated
• Application of
humanities
approaches
• Supported ROI and
predictions
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Consider…
• Text Analysis
combined with
clustering can see the
unseeable
• Models may also
support predictive
analysis
• All work done with
open-source tools