what’s the story with the economy?. positive impact of down economy you get clear on your...
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What’s The Story With The Economy?
Positive Impact of Down Economy
• You Get Clear on Your Priorities• You Trim the Financial Fat• You Find Renewed Enjoyment in the Simpler Things• You Reconnect with Family and Friends• You Remember Who You Really Are
Source: Positive Impact Magazine (April 2010)
The RecessionAccording to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the United States economy entered a recession in December 2007. At that time:
• The Dow Jones Index Closed at 13,264• Unemployment was 5.0%• Inflation was 4.08%• The GDP Growth Rate was 3.08% (2007 q4)
Recession Ends?According to an Oct 2009 survey of economists conducted by the National Association of Business Economics (NABE) “the recession ended but the nation faces a long slow recovery.” At that time:
• The Dow Jones Index Closed at 9,712• Unemployment Hit 10.2%• Inflation was 3.66%• The GDP Growth Rate was -7.09% (2009 q4)
(The NBER says recession ended in June 2009)
The RecoveryFederal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, testifying before congress in April, said that the fledgling recovery will keep on going after massive government stimulus fades later this year. Incoming economic barometers suggest that growth in demand by consumers and businesses will be sufficient to promote a moderate economic recovery in coming quarters.(AP Wire 4/14/10) Today:
• The Dow Jones Index Hovering at 12,200• Unemployment Holding at 8.9% (3/11)• Inflation is 2.11% (2/11)• The GDP Growth Rate is 3.05% (2010 q4)
The Impact on the IndustryCharitable giving fell in 2009 by 3.2 %, when adjusted for inflation.
• Individual giving remained basically flat.
• Charitable bequests fell 23.6%.
• Foundation giving fell 8.6%.
• Corporate giving grew 5.9%.
• This is only the 2nd year ever showing a decline (1974 total giving fell 5.4%).
The Impact on the IndustryTo add context to these numbers here year-by-year changes for 2006-2009 adjusted for inflation:
2006 2007 2008 2009
Individual giving: +1.2 -0.1 -5.8 -.04
• Charitable bequests: -5.1 +4.0 +29.6 -23.6
• Foundation giving: +9.1 +7.3 +1.5 -8.6
• Corporate giving: -10.5 -0.9 -9.6 +5.9
The Impact on the Industry• Overall contributions received in 2010 compared with 2009
More organizations saw growth (43 percent) than declines (33 percent). Combined, two thirds of respondents said they saw contributions increase ‐or stay about the same as in 2009. This is an improvement over a year ago at the same time, when 46 percent reported a decline and only 54 percent saw growth or stable contributions levels.
Just 45 percent of organizations received more than 50 percent of their contributions from individual donors. Most organizations received 1 to 10 percent of their revenue from other fundraising sources. The survey included as sources individuals, bequests, foundations, corporations, and other charities.
The Impact on the Industry• Changes in contributions received by fundraising vehicle
Internet/online giving rose at 58 percent of the organizations that reported using it–and more than three quarters reported online or ‐Internet fundraising. Major gifts and events proceeds rose at half of the organizations using them, but for most other fundraising vehicles, the picture was mixed.
• Expectations for 2011Charities expect giving in 2011 to increase and are likely to hold staffing and expenditures for fundraising at 2010 levels.
© 2011 Nonprofit Research Collaborative March 2011
Donor Confidence Index
Source: Campbell Rinker
Sector Feb Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb 2-Mo Chg
‘10 ‘10 ‘10 ‘10 ‘10 ‘11
Overall 88.4 89.7 86.5 93.1 96.4 90.8 ▼-5.6
Hospitals & Hosp. Fnd. 89.3 88.4 87.2 94.3 94.4 92.6 ▼-1.8
Environmental 89.1 89.7 87.3 92.4 92.9 90.8 ▼-2.1
Animal Rights 86.8 88.9 85.3 93 92 89.7 ▼-2.3
Education 88.5 88.5 87 93.4 97.7 93.8 ▼-3.9
Faith-based 94.9 94.1 88.9 91.2 97.3 92.8 ▼-4.5
Place of Worship 91.1 88.9 87.6 93 94.6 90 ▼-4.6
Health and Medical 87.8 89 85.5 93.1 93.8 88.4 ▼-5.4
Int'l Relief and Development 93.7 95 88.9 95.7 102.1 95.7 ▼-6.4
Social Service 89.3 88.4 84.6 90 95.6 88.6 ▼-7.0
Political and Advocacy 90.1 88.9 82.5 92.7 98.7 91.3 ▼-7.4
Arts, Culture and Humanities 91.7 87.7 82.9 95.6 103.1 88 ▼-15.1
Projecting Non Profit GivingThere is no question that the recession has taken its toll on Non Profit giving. But what’s the best barometer to use for planning the future and projecting giving?
• Unemployment Numbers?• Dow Jones Industrial Average?• Inflation Trends?• GDP Growth Rate?
The Dow and Charitable Giving
Source: Alexander Haas
Unemployment in the US
Source: www.MiseryIndex.us
2008-06
2008-07
2008-08
2008-09
2008-10
2008-11
2008-12
2009-01
2009-02
2009-03
2009-04
2009-05
2009-06
2009-07
2009-08
2009-09
2009-10
2009-11
2009-12
2010-01
2010-02
2010-03
2010-04
2010-05
2010-06
2010-07
2010-08
2010-09
2010-10
2010-11
2010-12
2011-01
2011-02
2011-030
2
4
6
8
10
12
5.55.8
6.1 6.26.6
6.97.4
7.78.2
8.68.9
9.4 9.5 9.49.7 9.8
10.1 10 109.7 9.7 9.7 9.9 9.7 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.8
9.49 8.9 8.8
Inflation in the US
2007-12
2008-01
2008-02
2008-03
2008-04
2008-05
2008-06
2008-07
2008-08
2008-09
2008-10
2008-11
2008-12
2009-01
2009-02
2009-03
2009-04
2009-05
2009-06
2009-07
2009-08
2009-09
2009-10
2009-11
2009-12
2010-01
2010-02
2010-03
2010-04
2010-05
2010-06
2010-07
2010-08
2010-09
2010-10
2010-11
2010-12
2011-01
2011-02
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
4.08
5.6
0.03
-2.1
2.72
1.14
2.11
Inde
x
Non Profit Giving & the GDPResearch by the Giving USA Foundation indicates that charitable giving during harder economic times, falls as a percentage of national Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
This means that in a slow economy, not only does giving slow down as well, but it also declines as a proportion of the average American’s spending dollar.
Median index revenue growth generally parallels national economic performance and tends to grow more slowly than GDP during periods of relative economic hardship.
As would be expected, non profit direct marketing revenue in the index began to decline as the economy weakened.
Total Giving as a Percent of GDP
GDP is the broadest measure of the nation's economy. It measures what individuals, businesses and the government spend and the net impact of the nation's imports and exports.
Economists use GDP as one of several data points to determine whether the economy is in a period of recession or expansion. The 2008-2009 recession was one of the deepest ever -- it was the first time in history in which the economy retreated for four straight quarters.
GDP Growth Rate
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Percent change in current dollars.
2010 q4
2010 q3
2010 q2
2010 q1
2009 q4
2009 q3
2009 q2
2009 q1
2008 q4
2008 q3
2008 q2
2008 q1
2007 q4
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6
Consumer Confidence Index
Source: The Conference Board
Jun-09July
August
Septem
ber
October
November
December
Jan-10
Febru
aryMarc
hApril
MayJune
July
August
Septem
ber
October
November
December
Jan-11
Febru
aryMarc
h0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
49.347.4
54.5 53.4
48.750.6
53.456.5
46.4
52.3
57.9
62.7
52.9 53.2
48.5 48.6 50.254.3
52.5
64.8
72
63.4
Brewer Direct Benchmark StudyIn February 2010, a nationwide donor performance benchmark study was commissioned. The study included more than 2.3 million gifts from nearly 500,000 donors and covered 2004 thru 2009. We learned:
• An Incredible 39% Increase in Donor File Growth• New Donor Retention Improved by 15%• Total Revenues Increased by 28%• Number of Gifts Per Donor Up 7%
Rising Above the EconomyHow did these organizations perform so well during such a difficult recession and how can they continue to rise above during the slow recovery?
• Remaining Spiritual• Making it Personal• Responding to the Need• Being Trustworthy• Insuring Value
