© OECD/IEA - 2009

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

What Role for Coal in a What Role for Coal in a CarbonCarbon--constrained World? constrained World?

CCT2009CCT200918 May, Dresden18 May, Dresden

Mr. Nobuo TanakaMr. Nobuo Tanaka Executive DirectorExecutive Director

International Energy AgencyInternational Energy Agency

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Role of coal in power generation

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

Year

TWh

OtherHydroNuclearGasOilCoal

Source: IEA Statistics

The coal demand for power generation has increased steadily over

the past 30 

years and its share in world power genelation has reached around

40%. 

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Size of coal-fired fleet

In recent years, China’s economic growth has been largely fuelled by coal and this 

is evident from the increase in capacity over the past five years.

Source: IEA Clean Coal Center and China Electricity Council[Data 2008 unless specified otherwise]

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0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mtoe

Other renewables

Hydro

Nuclear

Biomass

Gas

Coal

Oil

World energy demand expands by 45% between now and 2030 – an average rate 

of increase of 1.6% per year – with coal accounting for more than a third of the 

overall rise 

World primary energy demand in the Business as Usual Scenario

World Energy Outlook 2008, IEA

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Energy-related CO2 emissions in the IEA’s Business as Usual Scenario

97% of the projected increase in emissions between 2006 & 2030 comes from 

non‐OECD countries – three‐quarters from China, India & the Middle East alone

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Gigaton

nes

Internationalmarine bunkersand aviation

OECD ‐

gasOECD ‐

oilOECD ‐

coal

Non‐OECD ‐

gasNon‐OECD ‐

oilNon‐OECD ‐

coal

World Energy Outlook 2008, IEA

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Energy-related CO2 emissions in the IEA’s 450 Policy Scenario

In the 450 Policy Scenario emissions peak around 2020,and then decline by more 

than 1/3 to reach 26 Gt in 2030.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Gigaton

nes

Internationalmarine bunkersand aviation

OECD ‐

gasOECD ‐

oilOECD ‐

coal

Non‐OECD ‐

gasNon‐OECD ‐

oilNon‐OECD ‐

coal

World Energy Outlook 2008, IEA

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Reductions in energy-related CO2 in the 450 Policy Scenario

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Gigaton

nes

OECD+

Non‐OECD

Reference Scenario

450 Policy Scenario

CCS ‐

21%

Renewables & biofuels ‐

18%Nuclear ‐

14% 

Energy efficiency ‐

47%

CCS ‐

10%

Renewables & biofuels ‐

25%Nuclear ‐

6% 

Energy efficiency ‐

59%

35% (5.2 Gt reduction)

65% (9.5 Gt reduction)

Energy Efficiency 

54% 

CCS 14% Nuclear 9% 

Renewables & biofuels 23% 

World total

• OECD and non‐OECD countries must both work towards reducing CO2 emissions• Energy efficiency is the largest contributor. Renewables, nuclear and CCS also play 

key roles.

World Energy Outlook 2008, IEA

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Global electricity generation (450 ppm Scenario)

• Renewables and nuclear power will increase. Especially the share

of renewables 

would achieve 40%.

• While the share of coal halves to 21%, coal will remain one of the largest 

electricity sources.

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2006 2030

Wind Hydrogen Other Renewables Biomass & Waste Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal

41%

18%

2%

6%

22%

20%

5%

9%

(1%)

21%

16%

1%1%

4%18%

40%15%

18%

World Energy Outlook 2008, IEA

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Age, size and operating efficiency of coal fleet worldwide

Global average, 28.4%

As of 2004, •More than half of operating fleets are more than 25 years age and their unit size 

is less than 300 MWe. •More than 80% of the operating fleets are sub‐critical.

The average operating efficiency of existing coal fleet is 

28.4%, while current best technology operates a little over 

40% efficiency.

Source: IEA Clean Coal Center

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Average

efficiency appears to be improving ……..

• Retirement of smaller inefficient units in China

• Units ‐

recently built, under construction, and planned – in China, India • larger (600‐1000 MW) units• “supercritical”

or “ultra‐supercritical”

units –

inherently more efficient• efficient boilers even under lower loads

Source: IEA Clean Coal 

Center, China Electricity 

Council and Ministry of 

Power, India

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Average worldwide

~28.4%

~1110 gCO2/kWh

~36%

~880 gCO2/kWh

EU average

~42%

~740 gCO2/kWh

State‐of‐the artPC/IGCC

CCS

<2020

~48%

~665 gCO2/kWh

Advanced R&D

but deep cuts only by

CO2 emission reduction by key technologiesgC

O2/

kWh

Energy Efficiency makes big change but deep cuts of CO2 emission

can be done only by 

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)

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CCS -

only 4 full-scale projects exist

G8 goal: 20 full-scale demonstrations announced by 2010

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Historical global electricity consumption

The IEA estimates that global electricity consumption could drop

by as much as 

3.5% in 2009, the first contraction since the end of the Second World War.

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

20 000

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2009

TWh

End of World War II

1st

Oil Price Shock

Asian Economic Crisis 

Black Monday Stock Market

Crash 

Dot‐com Bubble Burst 

US Recession

2nd

Oil Price Shock

Global Credit Crunch 

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Impact of financial crisis on global investment in renewable energy

Renewable energy investment has collapsed due to lower fossil‐fuel prices and the 

financial crisis – which has dried up sources of project finance ….

Source: NEF, IEA analysis0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Geothermal

Marine & small‐hydro

Biomass

Solar

Wind

Billion

 dollars

‐38%

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Funds needed to achieve the 450 policy scenario in renewable power generation

To achieve the 450 Policy Scenario, G20 governments need to increase funds 

committed to renewables 6‐fold relative to their recent stimulus package 

announcements –

while for the low‐carbon sector as a whole, a 4‐fold increase is 

needed.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2008 2009* Annual average 2009‐2030

Billion

 dollars (2

008)

Stimulus effect

450 PolicyScenario 

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Conclusion

Coal and a low carbon economy need not be incompatible

Energy efficiency and CCS have a key role to play

These technologies also enhance our energy security

The economic and financial crisis is affecting investment in the coal sector

The current crisis is an opportunity to place a Clean Energy New Deal at the heart of stimulus packages everywhere

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IEA Work in Cleaner Fossil Fuels

Recent Publications Forthcoming Reports• Potential of upgrade and 

replacement of older coal‐fired 

power plants in major coal using 

economies.

• Developments in coal‐fired power 

generation and its potential for 

higher efficiency.

• Case studies on recently 

constructed supercritical or ultra‐

supercritical coal‐fired units.

• Assessment of full coal process 

chain for efficiency improvement 

in power generation.