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What is the best strategy to cope with future drought in small coastal communities in BC?

PLAN 525 - Assignment #2 School of Community and Regional Planning University of British Columbia

Jordan Brown Caroline Chen

Cristyn Edwards Sarah Marshall

Mike Phillips Vivian Wong

November 12, 2015

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Table of Contents

Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 3  

Purpose ....................................................................................................................................... 3  Context ........................................................................................................................................ 4  Scope ........................................................................................................................................... 5  

Objectives ........................................................................................................................................ 6  

Figure 1: Objectives and sub-objectives ............................................................................................... 6  

Performance Measures .................................................................................................................. 7  

Figure 2: Performance measures and units .......................................................................................... 7  

Alternatives ..................................................................................................................................... 8  

Figure 3: Alternatives table .................................................................................................................. 9  

Strategies ...................................................................................................................................... 10  

Figure 4: Strategies table with alternatives ........................................................................................ 10  

Assumptions and Uncertainties ............................................................................................... 12  

Consequences ............................................................................................................................... 13  

Figure 5: Consequence table .............................................................................................................. 14  

Trade-offs ..................................................................................................................................... 15  

Monitoring and Implementation ................................................................................................. 15  

Case Studies .................................................................................................................................. 16  

Tofino ........................................................................................................................................ 16  Sechelt ....................................................................................................................................... 16  

Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 17  

References .................................................................................................................................... 19  

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Introduction

As a result of growing populations, high levels of water consumption, and the influence of

climate change, periods of drought have become increasingly prevalent in British Columbia

(BC). While the severity of drought varies throughout the province, the degree of resilience and

policy response in each community varies as well. For small coastal municipalities, the

significant impacts of drought have increased the incentives for water planning and policy

creation. At this scale, drought has become an annual issue – one that produces a complex web

of impacts, which endanger the social, economic, and environmental sustainability of these

communities. Exacerbated by the common characteristics of growing water demands, the

presence of few water sources, and a reliance on water-dependent industries, water scarcity can

also increase susceptibility to natural disasters and economic loss. With limited resources to

cope, it is imperative that these small municipalities create and implement innovative strategies

to reduce the impacts of drought.

Using a Structured Decision Making (SDM) process, this report will explore potential drought

management strategies designed to alleviate the stress on water resources and reduce the

vulnerability of communities to water shortages (Gregory, Failing, Hardstone, McDaniels, &

Ohlson, 2012). The six strategies carry varying costs and impacts and rely on different means,

put forth as a group of ‘alternatives,’ to mitigate or minimize the effects of drought in the

future. This report recognizes that the adoption of any of these six strategies will greatly depend

on the capabilities, geographic setting and financial resources of each community. Nevertheless,

two case studies - Tofino and Sechelt - are considered in order to investigate the strengths and

weaknesses of the strategies as applied in the targeted setting, in hopes of guiding municipalities

to choose the strategy that best suits their needs today, while also addressing their needs in the

future.

Purpose

The purpose of this report is to determine the best strategy to cope with future drought in small

coastal communities in BC. In order to accomplish this, a preliminary understanding of the

context was obtained by examining BC’s water use, water governance and climate trends.

Further, a thorough review of existing drought and water management strategies was conducted

in order to gain insight into what methods are currently used and where improvements are

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needed. The following experts were consulted in order to gain further information and confirm

our findings:

• Dr. Hans Schreier Professor of Soil Science and Watershed Management at the University of British Columbia

• Josie Osborne, Mayor of Tofino • Dave Dunkley, Geoscientist for Water Policy and Planning at Metro Vancouver

This report uses the SDM process in order to create a framework for analyzing the challenges

and opportunities that municipalities will face in planning for water scarcity. Illustrating the

intricacy of making thoughtful decisions, the SDM process provides a method to navigate

through multiple alternatives, tradeoffs and uncertainties in a complicated decision context. The

process includes six essential steps, which this report will discuss further:

1. Clarify the decision context 2. Define objectives and measures 3. Develop alternatives 4. Estimate consequences 5. Evaluate trade-offs 6. Implement, Monitor and Review

Context

A drought is defined as “a recurrent feature of climate involving a deficiency of precipitation

over an extended period of time, resulting in a water shortage. (BC Government, 2015)” As a

result of unprecedented changes to the atmosphere generated by human development, climate

change is causing the effects of drought to be felt more acutely than ever before, as these dry

periods become more frequent and severe. In the summer of 2015, the effects of water scarcity

had significant effects on those living on the west coast of North America. Many communities in

British Columbia faced severe restrictions on water use, and governments were forced to

confront both short and long-term issues tied to water scarcity including potential adverse

impacts on human health, the local economy and the environment (CBC News - British

Columbia, 2015).

In British Columbia, drought can be caused by a combination of insufficient snow accumulation,

hot and dry weather, delayed rainfall, and high consumption (BC Government, 2015). BC has an

abundance of freshwater resources and consumes more than the Canadian average (BC

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Government, 2015). In many communities in BC, the highest proportion of residential treated

water is going to outdoor uses, i.e. to keep lawns green (Shreirer, 2015). These patterns in

consumption will exacerbate the impacts of climate change on drought. In the coming decades,

BC will have greater warming and changes in its precipitation regime than the global average,

and climate warming will result in less precipitation falling as snow, reduced snow packs, and

earlier spring snow melt (BC Government, 2015). All of this will result in highly variable stream,

reservoir and groundwater recharges over each year. This is especially problematic for small

coastal communities in BC because they share the characteristics of reliance on a limited number

of water sources, water-dependent industries such as fishing and tourism, fewer financial and

human resources in municipal government, growing populations with seasonal variability, aging

water infrastructure, and limited land (Osborne, 2015).

In 2016, the new Water Sustainability Act in BC will come into effect in BC. Among other

things, this Act places additional regulations on water management during periods of water

scarcity (BC Government, 2015). Despite these reforms, a disconnect remains between policy

and implementation at the municipal level. This report attempts to bridge this gap by providing

municipalities of small coastal communities with viable strategies to manage their water

resources for the continued health and vitality of their communities.

Scope

In order to determine the best strategy to cope with future drought in small coastal communities

in BC, it is important to first understand what defines a ‘small’ and ‘coastal’ community. This is

consistent with the SDM methodology of first defining the scope and bounds of the problem and

decision to be made. There are a wide range of definitions of ‘coastal’ and ‘small’ with no agreed

upon set of attributes. This report considers a “small coastal community” to have fewer than

30,000 residents in accordance with the 2011 Census classification of “small population centre,”

and a boundary of the community touching the coast (Statistics Canada, 2011). Moreover, the

target communities are those experiencing an increase in population and a growing tourism

industry and have limited resources. Coastal First Nations communities are not considered as

part of the scope of this report.

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Objectives

A set of well-defined objectives is at the core of properly addressing drought management. SDM

considers defining objectives as clarifying ‘what matters’ in making a decision, In this case, this

involves determining what the most important adverse impacts of drought are, creating goals to

counteract them, refining those objectives, and separating ends objectives from means objectives.

By focusing on the desired ‘ends’ or outcomes, and not the ‘means’ (actions) taken to achieve an

objective, each community is given agency in how they achieve each objective through their

chosen strategy. This type of outcome-oriented objective is referred to in SDM as a fundamental

objective.

The fundamental objectives are designed to support the short and long term well being of small

coastal communities in BC. Each objective is further broken down into sub-objectives, which

are the “means” by which to achieve that objective. The objectives show in Figure 1 address the

social, environmental and economic concerns that are critical to the resilience of small coastal

municipalities in BC1.

Figure 1: Objectives and sub-objectives Objectives Hierarchy

1. Ensure long-term water availability to maintain an adequate standard of living for a growing population Maximize water provisions for population growth Maximize water conservation through appropriate bylaws/ policies Maximize sufficient clean drinking water to protect human health Increase engagement with private sector in water conservation Increase education/awareness level (increase public engagement in water

management) 2. Reduce economic loss due to drought

Minimize municipal expenditure Minimize revenue loss for industries Minimize unemployment

3. Increase resilience to drought-related hazards Minimize effects or compounded effects of:

    Earthquakes, forest fires, flood, salinization, erosion, storms, and drought 4. Minimize negative environmental impacts of drought

Minimize adverse impact on Species Diversity Minimize loss of Species Habitats

1 The numbers (1 to 4) assigned to the fundamental objectives are for numerical reference and do not

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Performance Measures

Performance measures are used in SDM to measure the varying levels of contribution by an

alternative towards a fundamental objective2. More than one performance measure is used for

each fundamental objective to provide comprehensive evaluations of each alternative, and

increase redundancies in measurement so that municipalities have more than one way of

measuring an objective.

Sub-objectives are useful for informing the selection of performance measures. For example, in

order to address the sub-objective ‘maximize water provisions for population growth,’

performance measures such as the volume of water in infrastructure reserves and the number of

water sources available are used, in conjunction with desired direction of change. This reflects

the reality that some water sources are in use while other sources are available (but have yet to be

harnessed), and each of these performance measures has the potential to increase, decrease, or

stay the same depending on the alternative that is being evaluated.

Performance measure units are mostly based on natural criteria such as water volume or

monetary value in order to quantify impact. However, where there is no natural unit associated

with an alternative, a proxy measure is used, such as degree or magnitude of hazard. Figure 2: Performance measures and units

Performance Measure Desired Direction Unit

1 Groundwater levels Increase Water table level (m)

2 Water infrastructure reserves (storage tanks, dams, aquifers, etc.) Increase Volume contained (m3)

3 Number of water sources available Increase Number of sources

4 Drinking water quality Increase Turbidity, salinization, or suspended solids

5 Water consumption per capita Decrease Volume (m3)

6 Voluntary water-use restrictions or conservation Increase Water use/capita

7 Compliance with policies/bylaws or reduction of water use as a result of compliance

Increase Water use/capita

2 Alternatives are methods or actions taken to achieve fundamental objectives. They are discussed later in this report.

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8 Budget Decrease $ 9 Unemployment Decrease Unemployment rate 10 Revenue loss Decrease $

11 Fatalities/injuries from natural hazards Decrease #

12 Frequency of hazards Decrease #

13 Damage to infrastructure/property loss Decrease $

14 Degree/magnitude of hazard Decrease Standardized hazard- specific scales

15 Groundwater salinization Decrease Total dissolved Salts (TDS)

16 Population of risk/endangered species Increase Abundance (#)

17 Habitat/ecosystem area Increase Area (based on satellite imagery)

18 Presence of non-native species Decrease Abundance (#) 19 Population of keystone species Increase Abundance (#)

20 Habitat fragmentation Decrease Number and area of patches on a landscape matrix

21 Species diversity/biodiversity Increase Abundance of keystone or specialist species (#)

Alternatives Alternatives are methods or actions taken to achieve fundamental objectives. There are a range

of alternatives to negate the impacts of drought. Achieving the fundamental objectives in any

municipality will require alternatives that offer solutions to a complex situation that involve

iterative processes of learning, monitoring and adjustment.

The alternatives presented in this report derive from consultation with experts, review of drought

and water management plans in BC and beyond (Shreirer, 2015) (Osborne, 2015). Alternatives

are grouped into four categories: economy, policy governance, engagement/education, and

infrastructure (see Figure 3).

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Figure 3: Alternatives table

Economy Policy governance Engagement/ education Infrastructure

Diversify industry towards non-water dependent industry

Implement regulations for new developments for water conservation -­‐ Upgrade residential

and commercial properties

-­‐ Restricting lawn size and xeriscaping

-­‐ Water-efficient appliances and fixtures

Promote public knowledge and communications to increase water awareness - Flyers

- Workshops, public meetings

-­‐ Social media, websites

Increase reserves and water storage capacity -­‐ Storage tanks -­‐ Wells -­‐ Taping creeks

Purchase water from nearby municipalities’ reserves

Incentives for amenities and water conservation -­‐ Rebates on high-

efficiency appliances and fixtures such as showerheads, toilets, dishwashers

Engaging businesses and industry and other interest groups -­‐ Local businesses -­‐ Lawn owners -­‐ Fisheries, agriculture

Implement grey water/rain water infrastructure in new developments or by retrofitting existing buildings -­‐ Rainwater barrels

Increase water price to promote voluntary water conservation

Provide more grants and increase available funding for water conservation efforts

Sharing best practices and building relationships between stakeholders

New infrastructure -­‐ Wastewater treatment -­‐ Desalinization plants

Diversity water sources to reduce risk and build resilience

Develop new planning/land-use/development policies accounting for future population growth

Locate and advertise grants available to individuals or businesses for water conservation efforts

Natural hazard mitigation measures - Fire buffers

Water use restrictions and regulations on multiple levels, across sectors, with potential fines in place - Pressure reduction - Water audits - Lawn sprinkling by-

laws

Promote voluntary conservation by public and businesses -­‐ Use of storm water,

grey water -­‐ Xeriscaping

Monitoring stations to document and promote reduction of hazard impact, land use, and habitat change

Regional water planning - Mutual aid

agreements - Regional district

water sharing

Repair existing infrastructure (if inefficient or broken) -­‐ Wells, pipes, reserves

Ecological restoration to protect the existing watershed ecosystems -­‐ Reduce risk from

some natural hazards

Metering to document and promote water conservation

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Strategies

As there are many alternatives available, they are identified and grouped into themed strategies

based on similar characteristics or outcomes. Municipalities are not limited to choosing just one

strategy or alternative, but can use the strategies as a means of guiding their decision-making.

The strategies in this report (Figure 4) are based on the time required for implementation of the

alternatives, as opposed to the effects of implementation, which depend on the duration of

drought. A time frame between zero and ten years is “short-term,” and anything more than that is

long-term. Figure 4: Strategies table with alternatives

Strategies

1. Do nothing

2. Increasing supply - short-term implementation ● Purchase water ● Regional water planning

3. Increasing supply - long-term implementation ● Regional water planning ● Increasing reserves ● New infrastructure ● Repair existing infrastructure ● Monitoring stations ● Diversify water sources

4. Decreasing demand - short-term implementation ● Knowledge and Communications ● Sharing best practices ● Engaging businesses and industry ● Promote voluntary conservation ● Locate and advertise grants ● Regulations for new developments ● Incentives for amenities and water conservation ● Ecological restoration ● Hazard mitigation measures ● Increase water price ● Implement gray water/rain water infrastructure

● i.e. informal application ● Provide more grants ● Metering

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5. Decreasing demand - long-term implementation ● Diversify industry ● Develop new planning/land-use/development policies ● Ecological restoration ● Implement gray water/rain water infrastructure

● i.e. infrastructure-heavy changes ● Regulations for new developments

6. Do everything

The following are some insights and summaries of the basic characteristics of the strategies.

First, the Do nothing and Do everything strategies are bookends to the options available.

Choosing the Do nothing strategy would succumb to the status quo and any adverse impacts of

drought would be unabated. The Do everything strategy is not realistic because it would likely

monopolize all municipal resources.

The Increasing supply – short-term implementation strategy primarily consists of purchasing

water and includes the possibility of sharing water in times of crisis at a regional level. Urgent

water needs can be easily addressed through the purchase of water, as it is a fast and effective

alternative. Overall, the cost of purchasing water will be too high for the municipality to

repetitively incur, so it is considered to be a “Band-Aid” solution to the drought issue.

The Increasing supply – long-term implementation strategy contains alternatives that are

infrastructure-oriented, thus it generally requires more time, space, and financial resources to

implement. Infrastructure changes include options such as increasing water storage capacities,

fixing old pipes, or harnessing a new water source. Over time, the strategy could allow the

municipality to build resilience to drought and other hazards, especially if the population is

anticipated to grow. However, this strategy may have a larger negative environmental impact due

to encroachment onto undeveloped land. It should be noted that the extent of each potential

project will have a different cost and timeline associated with it, and may temporarily limit funds

for other amenities or services.

The Decreasing demand – short-term implementation strategy is a relative low-cost strategy that

involves varying degrees of public and industry engagement regarding water conservation. It

includes the implementation of education programs, or different communication mediums such

as social media. For example, education on household water conservation methods or the source

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of available municipal water may incentivize the public to become conserve water. Another

feature of this strategy is metering, a key alternative identified by Dr. Hans Schreier. This

alternative measures consumption which can raise awareness of use and makes usage

information available to inform regulations and incentives (Shreirer, 2015). A community should

bear in mind that alternatives such as metering or increasing water prices may have political

consequences, especially if the public is not educated on the issue. Therefore, certain

alternatives may need to work in conjunction with one another.

Lastly, the Decreasing demand – long-term implementation strategy presumes the possibility of

a water-conscious culture. This strategy consists of efforts to diversify into non-water dependent

industries, develop new water-conservation friendly policies, restore ecological habitats to

minimize water loss, implement sustainable infrastructure, or even regulate new developments to

install grey water infrastructure and restrict lawn size. Implementation of this strategy would

decrease the demand for water in the long run. This is an ambitious strategy, but feasible given

the long term benefits that it could incur.

Assumptions and Uncertainties

There are several overarching uncertainties in this report. The most significant is that the length

and severity of any future drought conditions are unknown. These conditions will determine the

degree of the required response from a municipality. In addition, each municipality involves a

separate set of geographic, demographic, and political circumstances, which create additional

uncertainties. For example, alternatives that require input from adjacent communities, their

Regional District, or the provincial government, will be met with varying degrees of success

depending on their setting and circumstances. Water rights also vary from municipality to

municipality, as well as available public funds, types of industry, available land, and potential

water sources (BC Government, 2015). It is not expected that every alternative within a strategy

be appropriate or feasible for all municipalities.

This report assumes that drought conditions will be becoming more frequent and severe given

historical records and climate change. In coastal BC, it is also assumed that there will continue to

be a reprieve during the winter months which could allow municipalities time to enact some of

their desired strategies.

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Consequences

The effects of the six strategies on each objective, quantified via the performance measures, are

collated in the consequence table (Figure 5) on the next page. This step of the SDM process will

allow municipalities to easily interpret the level of impact the strategies will have on their ability

to address future drought conditions, and allow them to select which strategy or strategies may

work best in their context.

At this stage of the analysis, it is not possible to determine the range of results of each

performance measure in the chosen units. Furthermore, this would be impossible to determine

for more than one municipality at a time. Given that each municipality is different, the most

appropriate way to evaluate the impacts of each strategy is through general trends. While the

consequence table will not provide municipalities with tailored costs, requirements,

specifications, trade-offs, solutions, etc., it can provide a first step towards creating an

appropriate water or drought management plan.

In the consequence table, the effects of each strategy are measured on a scale of one to five,

which is defined below the table. A five-tiered rating system is used to show where there are

positive or negative impacts, to allow for some range of severity, and to acknowledge when there

is no impact or not enough information.

The consequence table may be used as a tool to determine which strategy/strategies or

alternatives they may prefer. A municipality with some extra capital and a growing population

trend may lean towards the more expensive infrastructure projects of the Increasing supply -

long-term implementation strategy, while a municipality with very few resources may focus their

all efforts on alternatives within the Decreasing demand - short-term implementation strategy.

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Figure 5: Consequence table

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Trade-offs

Selecting and applying any one of the six strategies will inevitably involve trade-offs of some

kind. Trade-offs are evaluated by decision-makers, who must make explicit choices about which

alternative is preferred. These choices are based on their own values and their understanding of

the values of those who will be most affected by the decision. In the context of small coastal

communities, those most affected by the decision may be the local residents, industry and

businesses. Moreover, a decision-maker selecting the best strategy for their municipality must

base the decision on what is most suitable for that municipality, based on factors such as time,

available funding, estimated costs, state of any existing infrastructure, and local attitudes.

There are pros and cons to every strategy. Therefore, even for the Decrease demand - short-term

implementation strategy, which relies heavily on the low-cost and highly effective

communications-based alternatives directed toward water conservation - generally considered a

“win-win” set of initiatives - there is likely to be some trade-off. A more obvious example of

trade-offs can be seen in the Increase supply - long-term implementation strategy, which includes

the building of new infrastructure, likely at the expense of ecological protection.

Based on the trends in the consequence table, the Decreasing demand strategies have the fewest

foreseeable trade-offs, as their respective implementation results in lowered water consumption,

protection of the environment to a reasonable degree, and with the only apparent trade-off being

cost in implementation.

Monitoring and Implementation

The implementation of different strategies and alternatives will result in various levels of

monitoring. For example, capital-intensive infrastructure projects are likely to have built-in

monitoring systems while other alternatives will require ongoing municipal monitoring to

determine their effectiveness, such as policy changes and regulations or restrictions. The impact

and effects of these alternatives must be actively monitored because their effect are indirect and

cannot be accurately measured, objectively or mechanically. Recognizing the uncertainty around

the capacity of small municipalities to monitor strategies, decision-makers must nevertheless

consider monitoring when choosing their strategy or alternatives.

Once a strategy is selected, mechanisms for ongoing monitoring must be considered and

identified to ensure accountability with respect to on-the-ground results. Research should be

undertaken to improve knowledge and a review mechanism should be set so that new

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information can be incorporated into future decisions. Monitoring should use an adaptive

approach that includes continual assessment. Emphasis should be on monitoring the

effectiveness of each strategy, with periodic revisits of plans and strategies (for example, every

winter). Changes in technology, markets, environmental, social conditions, and relative values

amongst water uses should also be considered on a regular basis, to ensure that the adopted

strategy is still the most appropriate strategy for the municipality. This approach will ensure that

a small community’s limited resources are not being poorly allocated for ineffective strategies.

Case Studies

In the course of forming the strategies discussed in this report, two small, coastal municipalities

in British Columbia were studied: Tofino and Sechelt.

Tofino

Tofino has a permanent resident population of 1,876 and is heavily reliant on its tourism industry

(Statistics Canada, 2011). Tofino’s main water source is surface water from four creeks, and thus

it is heavily reliant on rain (District of Tofino, 2009). In 2006, Tofino was subject to a drought so

severe that businesses, which use sixty to eighty percent of Tofino’s water, were forced to shut

down. As a result of the 2006 drought, Tofino developed a Water Shortage Response Plan (Plan),

in 2009 (Salinas, 2009).

In its crisis management of water shortage, Tofino implemented many successful alternatives

listed in the Decrease demand - short-term implementation strategy, including various education

and communications initiatives. The recommendation for Tofino is to implement its effective

water conservation efforts to better plan for future drought and to monitor effectiveness of its

implementation through an adaptive approach with continual assessment.

Sechelt

Located on the Sunshine Coast, the permanent population of Sechelt is 9,291 and it has

experienced population growth of nearly 10% between 2006 and 2011 (Statistics Canada, 2011).

Characterized by an older population, most live in predominantly single-detached dwellings with

individual lawns. The tourism industry in Sechelt is growing rapidly, and the population

increases in the drier summer months (District of Sechelt, 2013).

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Sechelt obtains the majority of its water from surface water in the Chapman Creek watershed,

which supplies 98% of the water to the Sunshine Coast Regional District (SCRD). After a very

dry summer, the area was threatened by a large forest fire in July of 2015 and advanced to its

highest water restriction in August of 2015 (CBC News - British Columbia, 2015) (BC

Government, 2015).

The Chapman Creek Watershed is under the jurisdiction of the SCRD and as a result, Sechelt

does not have the authority to unilaterally implement all strategies. The community would

benefit from the Decreasing demand - short-term implementation strategy and the municipality

itself could implement many of the low cost alternatives. It may also benefit from hazard

mitigation measures, such as fire buffers. Additionally, restrictions on watering lawns as a part of

this strategy will likely be very successful.

Sechelt should work with the SCRD to establish year-round water management and potentially

work toward the Increasing supply - long-term implementation strategy. Currently, the District

relies on a typical drought management plan that addresses what to do in drought conditions -

typically in drought-prone summer months - and triggers for the implementation of stages of

restrictions (Sunshine Coast Regional District, 2014).

Summary

Although the purpose of this report was to determine the “best strategy” for small coastal

communities in BC to cope with drought, it is evident that there is no ‘one-size-fits-all’ strategy.

The context of each community is essential for determining both the feasibility and effectiveness

of any given policy directive, alternative, or strategy. Whether it be the demography, industry,

geography, or political will of a given community, each one is unique and as a result, the best

strategy will undoubtedly be case-specific. That being said, the report has evaluated a multitude

of strategies and alternatives, which municipalities can review, select and adapt according to

their specific goals, local conditions, and capabilities.

Hopefully, the implementation of one or more of these strategies will reduce the probability of

emergency drought situations in the small coastal municipalities of the province. As evidenced

by this report, the time to consider water management and drought alleviation strategies is now.

Proactive and frequent communication with water users regarding water supply conditions is

critical for successful drought management. While action will require an ongoing and united

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effort, inaction will likely have disastrous health, economic, and environmental impacts. As

growth and the warming effects of climate change persist, a change in the way of thinking about

valuable water sources is necessary to protect the health and sustainability of municipalities in

BC.

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