what does aging mean for dakota county?...1950s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s 30s 40s 2050s ......
TRANSCRIPT
What does aging mean for Dakota County? Susan Brower, Ph.D. Minnesota State Demographer June 11, 2014
How many additional “older adults” will Minnesota gain during this decade?
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau
85 55 71 67
47
91
- - - - -
1950s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s 30s 40s 2050s
Change in older adults, age 65+ (in thousands)
Unprecedented increases in MN’s “older adult” population
85 55 71 67
47
91
285
335
97 66 56
1950s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s 30s 40s 2050s
Change in older adults, age 65+ (in thousands)
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, MN State Demographic Center
Why are these changes so marked now?
250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000
Under 5 5 to 9
10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84
85+
Population by age and sex Minnesota, 2012
Male Female
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
65 years in 2014
Older adults (65+) in 2012 Dakota County ~ 11%
Source: mncompass from U.S. Census Bureau data
Age profile of Dakota County
20000 10000 0 10000 20000
0 to 45 to 9
10 to 1415 to 1920 to 2425 to 2930 to 3435 to 3940 to 4445 to 4950 to 5455 to 5960 to 6465 to 6970 to 7475 to 7980 to 84
85+
Population by age and sex Dakota, 2015
FemaleMale
Source: MN State Demographic Center
Age profile of Dakota County in 10 years
20000 10000 0 10000 20000
0 to 45 to 9
10 to 1415 to 1920 to 2425 to 2930 to 3435 to 3940 to 4445 to 4950 to 5455 to 5960 to 6465 to 6970 to 7475 to 7980 to 84
85+
Population by age and sex Dakota, 2025
FemaleMale
Source: MN State Demographic Center
Age profile of Dakota County in 20 years
20000 10000 0 10000 20000
0 to 45 to 9
10 to 1415 to 1920 to 2425 to 2930 to 3435 to 3940 to 4445 to 4950 to 5455 to 5960 to 6465 to 6970 to 7475 to 7980 to 84
85+
Population by age and sex Dakota, 2035
FemaleMale
Source: MN State Demographic Center
More than 1 in 4 Dakota County residents will be 65+ by 2035
53,107 13%
128,154 27%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2015 2020 2025 2030 203565+, number 65+, percent
Source: MN State Demographic Center
Older Dakota County residents will outnumber youth for the first time by 2030
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
65+
Under 20
Source: MN State Demographic Center
More Dakota residents in the later decades of life
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2015 2025 2035
60s
70s
80s
Source: MN State Demographic Center
What do baby boomers look like? Hint: They’re between 50 and 68
Healthy life expectancy at age 65, 2007-2009
Source: Centers for Disease Control, 2013
Older adults in Minnesota volunteer in large numbers
Source: mncompass.org
Since the recession, slightly higher labor force participation of older adults
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
16 26 36 46 56 66 76 86
Rates of labor force participation 2000 and 2012
2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey
Labor force growth is projected to slow
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Minnesota State Demographic Center Projections
1.9%
2.7%
1.5% 1.5%
0.9%
0.5% 0.3%
0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Consideration of growth: More residents in their 60s and early 70s
• Most transition out of the labor force in their 60s, impacting
• Daily activities
• Transportation
• Spending habits
• Housing and migration
• Community impacts include • Surplus of “free” time
• Population and housing shifts
• Changes in labor force growth and dampened economic growth
More Dakota County residents in the later decades of life
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2015 2025 2035
60s
70s
80s
Source: MN State Demographic Center
Growing number of people with disabilities
Projected growth between 2010 and 2020 in the number of people with disabilities living in MN
20%
Source: mncompass.org
Medical expenses rise considerably after age 65
$1,769 $1,814 $3,230
$6,429
$10,274 89% 85%
76%
89% 96%
U.S., 2010
Average annual expense Percent with a medical expense
Source: Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, 2010
Source: Stone, 2000. Figures are for the U.S. overall.
Need for long-term care grows after 65; is substantial after age 85
MN Baby Boomers plans for long-term care fall short
Source: Transform 2010 Survey, Minnesota Department of Human Services
Increasingly our demographics will change demand for services
General Fund Expenditures
FY 2012-2013
K-12 Education
42%
Health & Human Services
31%
Higher Education
8%
All other areas 19%
Within Health &
Human Services
• Medical Assistance Expenditures: 25% of GF spending (8.5 billion)
• Medical Assistance Expenditures for the Elderly and Disabled: 16% of GF spending (5.5 billion)
• MA expenditures include basic care, long-term care waivers and long-term institutional care
Sources: Minnesota Management and Budget, February 2013. House Research, Long-Term Care Services for the Elderly, November 2012
If state health care costs continue unabated, other services crowded out
3.9%
8.5%
0.2% 0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Revenue Health Care Education & All Other
An
nu
al A
ve G
row
th 2
00
8-2
033
Source: General Fund Spending Outlook, presentation to the Budget Trends Commission, August 2008, Dybdal, Reitan and Broat.
Consideration of aging: More residents in their 80s and older
• Prevalence of disability will grow
• Private and public medical expenses will increase
•Need for long-term care will rise
Lots of graphs, just two take-aways:
1. Aging trend will impact everyone, young and old. How we manage the transition from young to old will be important for all of our well-being
2. Many healthy years ahead for older adults. How will older adults actively shape their communities in the years to come?
Susan Brower [email protected]