what are your market numbers?
TRANSCRIPT
Farmers’ Market Federation of New York Conference
What are Your Market Numbers?
March 7, 2013
Presentation Topics
1. About Market Ventures, Inc.
2. Customer analysis
3. Vendor analysis
4. Market records
Market Ventures, Inc. Consulting / Development / Operations
Grand Rapids Downtown Market
• National consultants on public markets and food-based economic development projects
• Lead Author, Public Markets and Community Revitalization
• Conduct public market feasibility studies and research throughout the United States
By Ward Market, Ottawa Rochester Public Market
Market Ventures, Inc. Recent Projects
• Grand Rapids Downtown Market (opening July 2013)
• Charlottesville City Market District Plan
• Rochester Public Market Renovation & Expansion Plan
• Boise Public Market Feasibility Study
• Grand Traverse Regional Market/Food Hub Feasibility Study
• Fort Collins Community Marketplace Feasibility Study
• Salt Lake City Public Market District Plan
• Broome County Regional Farmers’ Market Feasibility Study
• NYC Wholesale Farmers’ Market Feasibility Study and Development Plan
• SchoolFood Plus Initiative (NYC) Program Evaluation
• Milwaukee Public Market Feasibility Study & Concept Plan
• Tioga County Cooperative Market & Distribution Study
• Reading Terminal Market Merchandising Plan
• Developer/Operator: Bronx Sunday Market, Portland Public Market
• President, Farm to Market, Inc.• Co-owner, Maine’s Pantry
Questions to Answer about Customers
• Who’s coming to the market now?• Who is not coming that you would like to
attract?– Higher spending consumers– Low income residents– Children
• Why are customers coming to the market?• Where else do they shop for food?• How did they hear about the Market?• What are their visit characteristics?
– How long do they stay– What do they buy– How much do they spend
• Customer concerns or issues
Customer Research Methods• Qualitative methods
– Key informant interviews– Focus groups
• Quantitative methods– Customer counts– Dot surveys– Intercept surveys– Web-based surveys (e.g., Survey Monkey, Zoomerang)
• Trade area demographic data– Trade areas determined by intercept surveys– Compare current customers with residents within the trade areas
Qualitative Methods• Key informant interviews
– Select respondents– Prepare questions but allow flexibility to
explore topics as they emerge– Identify major issues
• Focus Groups– Efficient means to interview a group of
market customers– Invite representative range of customers
(gender, age, location of residence, income, household composition)
– Guided conversation – prepare questions– Record or have person taking notes– Good method for testing ideas
Rapid Market Assessment
Boise Capital City Public Market
• Saturday open-air farmers’ market in Downtown Boise
• ~160 vendors (31% ag, 23% prepared food, 45% arts)
• Rapid Market Assessment methods
– 14 volunteers gathered attendance at 15 market entrances for 10 minutes per hour over 4 hour period
– Dot survey set up at 2 locations with 4 flip charts (10 volunteers)
– Each respondent given 4 dots
• Dot survey questions
– What is your primary reason for coming to the Market today?
– How often have you shopped at the Market this year?
– About how much have you or will you spend at the Market today?
– How much have you or will you spend at other Downtown businesses today?
Rapid Market Assessment
Boise Capital City Public Market • Estimated 17,443 visitors
• 45% of visitors come for the atmosphere, 39% for the ag products
• How much spent given in 6 categories; can’t capture very high sales which would skew average upward
• Can approximate average customer sale by multiplying midpoint of ranges by number of respondents, and dividing resulting total sales by total number of respondents (~$19)
• Can approximate total market daily sales by dividing total attendees by estimated group size (2) and multiplying by average sale (17,443 ÷ 2 x $19=$168,000)
2011 2009
Agriculture Products 39% 38%
Music 2% 2%
Arts 5% 8%
Atmosphere 45% 45%
Prepared Foods 8% 4%
Children’s Programs 1% 3%
Customer Intercept Survey
• Survey design– Exit survey – what did you do today at the market, not
what you “usually” do– Clear questions without ambiguity– Keep short but complete– Test survey instrument
• Sample size– More the better, allows to dig deep into data– 100 minimum, 300 preferred – Conduct over multiple days and repeat annually
• Training– Speak to customers as they leave the market– Avoid selection bias– Knowledgeable and cheerful interviewers– One person takes survey– Don’t change questions– Record interviewers’ observations
• Manager review all surveys soon after completed
Customer Intercept Survey: Demographic Profile
• Conducted two Saturdays• 262 Surveys Completed
Customer Intercept Survey: Demographic Profile
Q23. What is your home zip code? (N=253)
Customer Intercept Survey: Demographic Profile
• Boise median household income 2009 = $50,633 (quickfacts.census.gov)
Q26. What range includes your total household income, before taxes, for 2010? (N=215)
Customer Intercept Survey: Visit Characteristics
Groupsize
Average 2.1
Min 1
Max 12
Mode 2 48%
Mode 1 or 2 75%
Q1. To get to the Market today, did you walk, bicycle, drive in a car, or take a bus? (N=254)
Q2. How long did you travel to get to the Market today? (N=261)
Q3. Including yourself, how many people came with you to the Market? (N=258)
Customer Intercept Survey : Visit Characteristics
Q4. Before today, when was the last time you came to the Market? (N=260)
Customer Intercept Survey: Visit Characteristics
Q5. Counting everywhere you made a purchase today, how many different vendors did you buy from? (N=245)
Range: 0-12Mean: 3.5
Customer Intercept Survey: Purchasing
Q6. Did you buy any food today that you ate while in the Market? (N=247)Q8. Did you buy food to take home or take away from the Market today? (N=251)Q10. Did you buy any crafts or nonfood items at the Market today? (N=248)
Customer Intercept Survey: Purchasing
Purchases Food to take home Eat on premises Crafts/nonfoods Total
Average (among those who spent) $29.67 $9.53 $30.88 $37.15
Average (all customers) $23.33 $4.69 $6.01 $34.83
Min $1.50 $0.00 $1.00 $1.50
Max $200.00 $50.00 $160.00 $226.50
Total $6,111.70 $1,229.50 $1,575.00 $8,916.20
Q7. Counting everything that you bought, how much money did you spend on food that you ate while in the Market? (N=129)Q9. Counting everything that you bought, how much money did you spend on food to take home or away? (N=206)Q11. How much money did you spend on all the crafts or nonfood items you bought at the Market today? (N=51)
17,433 customers/day ÷ 2.1 customers/group x $34.83 = ~$289,000 total market sales/day
Mean Expenditures
Customer Intercept Survey: Community Impact
Q13. While you are in downtown Boise today, do you plan to shop at any stores or businesses, or are you just shopping at the Market? (N=251)
Customer Intercept Survey
Q. 14-16. Compared to other places that sell similar products, would you describe the quality/selection/prices of products at the Market as much better, somewhat better, about the same, somewhat worse, or much worse? (N=250, 252, 242)
Customer Intercept Survey
Q19. What things to you like best about the Capital City Public Market? (N=255)
Non-Customer Analysis
Customer On-Line Survey
• Means to reach shoppers and non-shoppers
• Self-selected so unlikely to be truly representative
• Need aggressive campaign to encourage participation
Demand Analysis: Trade Area 1 (2 mile ring)
• Downtown area and adjacent neighborhoods
• Current location convenient and easily accessible –some can walk, accessible public transportation
• Significant competition for fresh food with upscale supermarkets and some specialty food stores
Findings• Small population but expected
to increase (47,680)
• Small average household size (2.27)
• Very low median age (27.2)
• Below average household income but expected to increase substantially ($62,181)
• Fairly small percentage of high income households (27% over $75k)
• Low percentage family households (common in city locations)
• Very high levels of educational attainment
Trade Area Demographic Analysis
Source: Nielsen/Claritas, Inc., 2013
Vendor Analysis
Charlottesville City Market
Number of Vendors
Vendor Stalls & Sales
2010 Sales Reserved Non-reserved Total
Farm $ 800,201
Food $ 396,268
Crafts $ 167,969
Total $ 1,364,438 $ 119,218 $ 1,483,656
2010 Sales Reserved Non-reserved Total
Farm 59%
Food 29%
Crafts 12%
Total 92% 8% 100%
2012 Stalls Reserved Non-reserved Total
Farm 65
Food 21
Crafts 22
Total 108 7 115
2012 Stalls Reserved Non-reserved Total
Farm 60%
Food 19%
Crafts 20%
Total 94% 6% 100%
Charlottesville City Market Target: 50% farmer/30% food/20% crafts
# Vendors Reserved Non-reserved Total
Farm 46 50 96
Food 24 46 70
Crafts 32 112 144
Total 102 208 310
# Vendors Reserved Non-reserved Total
Farm 45% 24% 31%
Food 24% 22% 23%
Crafts 31% 54% 46%
Total 33% 67% 100%
Charlottesville City Market: Gross Sales
Vendors required to report sales daily; pay 6% of gross sales for rent
Charlottesville City Market: Gross Sales
Charlottesville City Market
$-
$500,000
$1,000,000
$1,500,000
$2,000,000
$2,500,000
$3,000,000
$3,500,000
$4,000,000
Reported sales Sales if $600/day 3,000 customers @ $25
5,000 customers @ $25
Estimated Sales 2011Charlottesville City Market
• Median between $21 and $30, say $25
• Average likely higher (skewed upwards by small number of high spending customers)
Farmer Analysis
Sources: Google Map and US Census Bureau Quick Facts
County Sq. Miles Population
Albemarle 721 100,553 Augusta 967 73,549 Buckingham 580 17,278 Culpepper 379 47,476 Cumberland 297 9,969 Fluvanna 286 26,061 Goochland 281 21,883 Greene 156 18,660 Louisa 496 33,395 Madison 321 13,169 Nelson 471 15,097 Orange 341 33,938 Page 311 23,958 Rappahannock 266 7,444 Rockingham 849 76,589 Total 6,723 519,019
Radius if area a circle 46
Virginia 39,490 8,096,604 Radius if area a circle 112
Agricultural Data Findings
Year Farms - VA
1964 80,354 1969 64,572 1974 52,699 1978 49,936 1982 51,859 1987 44,799 1992 42,230 1997 41,095 2002 47,606 2007 47,383 2012 54,946 2017 62,522 ∆ 2007-2017 15,139 ∆% 1997-2007 15.3%∆% 2007-2017 32.0%∆% 2007-2012 16.0%
Farms Utilizing Direct Marketing
Year Virginia Region
1992 1,789 278
1997 1,713 267
2002 2,513 392
2007 2,855 503
2012 3,383 560
2017 4,044 640
Change 2007-2017 1,189 137
Change 2007-2017 42% 27%
Direct Marketing Sales
Year Virginia Region
1992 $ 7,036 $ 848
1997 $ 10,594 $ 2,516
2002 $ 16,825 $ 2,049
2007 $ 28,878 $ 4,518
2012 $ 33,773 $ 5,119
2017 $ 40,948 $ 6,173
Change 2007-2017 $ 12,070 $ 1,655
Change 2007-2017 42% 37%
Farmers’ Market Federation of New York Conference
What are Your Market Numbers?
Ted Spitzer, President
www.marketventuresinc.com
(207) 321-2016