World Future Society ConferenceThe role of the ideal future

and how to get there

© Dr Elisabeth Dostal7 May 2010

we know what caused the finance crisis,but we don’t know what to do about it(G-20 Summit, March 2009)

we can also replace “finance crisis” with

climate change,poverty,

challenge

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poverty, crime, terrorism, unemployment, population explosion, etc.

summary of my talk

we need:

(1) a worldview that can deal with complexitysystems thinking

(2) change our future course

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(2) change our future courseideal future designs

(1) new thinking about governancestakeholder governance

(1) changing our worldview

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fundamental problems with our worldview

the logic of the problem is not the logic of thesolution

the problem does not contain the solution

“more of the same” reinforces the problem

problems have multiple causes

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problems have multiple causes

problems and cofactors

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poverty

fundamental problems with our worldview

the logic of the problem is not the logic of thesolution

problems have multiple causes

issues are interrelated

interrelating problems make each other worse

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interrelating problems make each other worse

issues are interrelated

poverty

health crisis

climatechange

populationexplosion

educationcrisis

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crisis

unemploy-ment

energyshortage

violence

inadequateinfrastructure

fundamental problems with our worldview

the logic of the problem is not the logic of thesolution

problems have multiple causes

issues are interrelated

interrelating problems make each other worse interrelating problems make each other worse

solutions in one area can give rise to problems inanother

vicious circles

solutions in one area can create problems in another

e.g. solving poverty through more economic developmentreinforces climate change (or energy shortages, etc.)

poverty

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economicdevelopment

climatechange

fundamental problems with our worldview

the logic of the problem is not the logic of thesolution

problems have multiple causes

issues are interrelated

the current situation has momentum the current situation has momentum

it tends to get worse over time

we don’t notice gradual deterioration

• momentum• forecasting• current future scenarios• current logic• gradual deterioration

current future

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currentsituation current

futures

time

(2) how do we change our future course?

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systems have a conceptual and physical reality

conceptual reality in-formsphysical reality

if the current situation isundesirable, it indicates thatthere is need for changingconceptual reality (i.e. redesign)

in-forms

conceptualreality

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redesigning its conceptual realitytrans-forms the system

indicates

physicalreality

role of the ideal future

• redesign conceptual reality as an ideal future• the ideal future represents a different (higher order) logic• one can backcast strategies from the ideal future• acting according to the new strategies brings about a

gradual improvement of the system towards new andmore desirable outcomes

• problems get dissolved idealfuture

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• problems get dissolved

forecasting

backcasting

future

currentsituation current

futures

current versus ideal future

the future is created by default or design

default: current futuredesign: ideal future

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design: ideal future

either way we are responsible for our future

how do we redesign the future?

summary:

• choose a design framework

• analyse the current situation

• create an ideal design

generate alignment around the design

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• generate alignment around the design

• make implementation plan

• implement

• monitor results

planet

society

institution

co-factors

framework: multiple levels

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group

individual

cell

molecule

institution

organisation

ph

ysio

log

ical

tech

no

log

ical

po

litic

al

eco

no

mic

cult

ura

l

eco

log

ical

psy

cho

log

ical

ph

ysic

al

planet

international society

national society X

X

framework: multiple levels and dimension

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organisation

group

individual

celletc.

national society

institution

X

X X

X

X

analyse the current situation and create an ideal design

idealfuture

multi-level and multi-dimensional design

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currentsituation

currentfutures

multi-level and multi-dimensional analysis

aligning stakeholders around the design

aligning stakeholdersinvolves designiterationsSt 1

St 2

St 3

St 8

St 9

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IDEAL DESIGNSt 3

St 4

St 5

St 6

St 7St 10

St 11

St 12

implementation plan

idealfuture

3

12

Outcomes Based Education1. redesign curriculum2. new schoolbooks3. train teachers4. administer system5. etc.

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time

currentsituation

currentfutures

3

Primary Health Care1. build clinics2. staff clinics3. equip clinics4. administer system5. etc.

strategic plan: cascading aims in time

idealfuture

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currentsituation current

futures

(3) who should redesign the future andimplement the designed strategy?

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current governancegovernment

cabinet

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governmentdepartment

function specific strategy

NGOs

private sector

NGOs

private sector

NGOs

private sector

governmentdepartment

governmentdepartment

function specific strategy function specific strategy

transversal (multi-functional) strategic design

housing

health

education

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environment

energyemployment

educationstrategy

stakeholder governancegovernment

cabinet

Ideal Design of aTransversal Issue

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NGOs

private sector

governmentdepartment

NGOs

private sector

governmentdepartment

NGOs

private sector

governmentdepartment

transversal / cooperative strategy

implement the plans

each stakeholder implements the strategies it isresponsible for

the sum total of even seemingly insignificantstrategies dissolves the problems associatedwith the transversal issue

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with the transversal issue

homework

what is your contribution

(from your functional perspective)

to the dissolving of our collective problems?

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