westport innovations inc. presentation.pdf · for use only by the global investment research...
TRANSCRIPT
WESTPORT INNOVATIONS INC.
Presented by: Simon Fraser University
March 5, 2011
Content
Overview.………………………………………………
Positive Drivers.....………………………………….
Negative Drivers…….…………..…………………..
Valuation………….……………………………………
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
Section
1
2
3
4
2
Overview
Positive Drivers
Negative Drivers
Valuation
Recommendation
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
3
Report Price
as ofDecember 3, 2010
$19.30
Target Price
$16.38
HOLD
TSE: WPT
Overview
Positive Drivers
Negative Drivers
Valuation
Westport Innovations
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
4
Formed in 1995, headquartered in Vancouver, Canada
Over 400 patent applications worldwide with over 200 issued patents
186 employees with 7 partners across the globe
Overview
Positive Drivers
Negative Drivers
Valuation
Natural Gas Engine Technology
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
5
Overview
Positive Drivers
Negative Drivers
Valuation
Joint Ventures & Partnerships
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
6
Westport Innovations Inc.
Juniper Engines
Cummins-Westport
Westport HD
Weichai-Westport
Overview
Positive Drivers
Negative Drivers
Valuation
Equity Financing
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
7
0
50
100
150
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20082009
20102011
Increase to Share Capital ($M)
Overview
Positive Drivers
Negative Drivers
Valuation
Strong Foundation
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
8
Partnerships
Balance Sheet
Management
Economics
Overview
Positive Drivers
Negative Drivers
Valuation
Forecasted Fuel Prices
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
0
1
2
3
4
2000 2008 2015 2025 2035
20
08
US
D
Delivered Transportation Fuel Prices, 2000-2035
Natural gas
Diesel fuel
History Projections
9
Overview
Positive Drivers
Negative Drivers
Valuation
Government Incentives
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
USAIncome tax credits for natural gas re-fuelling
equipment
Excise tax credit to seller of CNG or LNG
NAT GAS Act?
ChinaConsumer rebates for
alternative fuel vehicles.
CNG Vehicles listed as encouraged industry
10
Overview
Positive Drivers
Negative Drivers
Valuation
Strategic Partnerships
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
Global Engine Producers
Global Truck Producers
1. Weichai2. Volvo3. Daimler4. Cummins5. CNHTC
1. Daimler2. Volvo3. Dongfeng4. Tata5. FAW
Overview
Positive Drivers
Negative Drivers
Valuation
Weichai Westport Inc.
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
Overview
Positive Drivers
Negative Drivers
Valuation
Adapting Business Model
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
13
Westport HD Diesel
Pmt Per month $4,000 $2,400
Maintenance CostPer mile
0.115 0.085
Annual mileageFuel Cost
100,000$2.10/DGE
100,000$3.60
Per month:
Fuel (at 5 mpg) $3,500 $6,000
Lease charge 4,000 2,400
Operating charge 958 708
TOTAL $8,458 $9,108
Savings $650 / month
Overview
Positive Drivers
Negative Drivers
Valuation
Management
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
Executive
Min
ing
Au
to
Fin
ance
Star
tup
Po
liti
cs
John Beaulieu (Chairman)
David Demers (CEO)
William Larkin (CFO)
Elaine A. Wong (EVP - Strategy)
Nicholas C Sonntag (EVP – Marketing)
Darren Seed (VP)
Melih Ogmen (VP)
W Chipman Johnston (Secretary)
14
Overview
Positive Drivers
Negative Drivers
Valuation
Sound Balance Sheet
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15
Risk averse
Net Cash: $73 M
Strong liquidity
Cash ready for new ventures and research
Overview
Positive Drivers
Negative Drivers
Valuation
High Uncertainty
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
What is the future of
Westport?
Will companies adopt it?
More reliable
than diesel
engines?
Too expensive
?
Difficult to value
Enough fueling
stations?Is there a market?
16
Overview
Positive Drivers
Negative Drivers
Valuation
Market Resistance
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
17
Price
Psychology
Reliability
Overview
Positive Drivers
Negative Drivers
Valuation
Technical Complexity
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
Natural Gas Engine Diesel Engine
Double the price
Less power and torque
Requires special parts
Requires more maintenance
18
Overview
Positive Drivers
Negative Drivers
Valuation
Infrastructure Limits
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
Source: DOE as of September 16, 2010
19
Overview
Positive Drivers
Negative Drivers
Valuation
R&D Costs and IP Risk
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
Source: Westport
20
Overview
Positive Drivers
Negative Drivers
Valuation
Valuations
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
21
17.31 16.81
24.18
3.79 4.71
14.09
7.16 9.37
17.40
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
P/S EV/S FCFF
$16.38
Overview
Positive Drivers
Negative Drivers
Valuation
Comparable Companies
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
22
Company Name EPSMarket Cap
($M)P/E P/S EV/Sales
Woodward Inc. 1.49 2,556.34 24.89x 1.75x 1.78x
Clean Energy Fuels Corp. -0.27 958.1 - 5.61x 5.17x
Fuel Systems Solutions Inc. 3.39 626.61 10.49x 1.23x 1.25x
China Automotive Systems Inc. 1.09 403.75 13.66x 1.23x 1.32x
Hydrogen Engine Center Inc. -0.11 2.42 - 1.78x 4.28x
Averages3/5
Positive909.45 16.35x 2.32x 2.76x
Westport Innovations Inc. -17.88 903.96 - 6.26x 4.70x
Overview
Positive Drivers
Negative Drivers
Valuation
Value Driver – Revenue Growth
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
CWI accounted for 92% of Westport’s total revenues in 2010
Wildcard projects include Weichai-Westport, Volvo Powertrain
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Service revenue
Parts revenue
Product revenue
23
Overview
Positive Drivers
Negative Drivers
Valuation
Product Revenue
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
Forecasted 20% annual growth in units shipped from 2011 – 2015
Unit price growth driven by refocus on HD segment
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Units shipped Unit price
24
Overview
Positive Drivers
Negative Drivers
Valuation
Cash Flow
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
Operating cash flow to break-even by 2013
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
2006 2008 2010 2012e 2014e
Operating Cash Flow
25
Overview
Positive Drivers
Negative Drivers
Valuation
FCFF Valuation
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
Cost of equity 11.18%
Cost of debt 8.10%
WACC 11.10%
Terminal growth rate 2.00%
PV of firm $ 658,187
Add: Cash & equivalents $ 211,461
Less: Debt $ 23,656
PV of equity $ 851,239
Outstanding options 2,091
# shares outstanding 48,929
Intrinsic value $ 17.40
26
Overview
Positive Drivers
Negative Drivers
Valuation
Sensitivity Analysis
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
Cost of capital8.3% 11.1% 13.9%
Terminal growth
1.5% 21.55 16.80 14.09
2.0% 22.76 17.40 14.45
2.5% 24.18 18.07 14.84
27
Gross Margin30.0% 35.0% 40.0%
GrowthStage CAGR
15.0% 5.06 7.79 10.52
20.0% 14.27 17.40 20.52
25.0% 24.69 28.26 31.84
Overview
Positive Drivers
Negative Drivers
Valuation
Summary
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
- +
Management
Early to market
Valuation
High Degree of
Uncertainty
28
Overview
Positive Drivers
Negative Drivers
Valuation
Catalysts
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
29
Conclusion to NAT GAS Act
Broader Market Adoption of Natural Gas Vehicles
Climbing price of oil
Growth in Asia/ Weichai JV
Overview
Positive Drivers
Negative Drivers
Valuation
Contact Information
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
Simon Fraser University
Beedie School of Business
500 Granville Street
Vancouver, Canada
Tel +1 (778) 782-5209
30
AP
PE
ND
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Index of Slides
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
31
OverviewRecommendationCompany BackgroundEngine TechnologyJVs and PartnershipsEquity FinancingPositive DriversStrong FoundationForecasted Fuel PricesGovernment IncentivesStrategic PartnershipsWeichai Westport Inc.Adapting Business ModelManagementSound Balance SheetNegative DriversHigh UncertaintyMarket ResistanceTechnical ComplexityInfrastructure LimitsR&D Costs and IP RiskBreak-Even Point
ValuationsComparable CompaniesFCFF ValuationValue DriversRevenue GrowthProduct RevenueParts RevenueRevenue ForecastGross MarginOperating EfficiencyOperating Cash FlowWACC CalculationWorking CapitalNet InvestmentSensitivity AnalysisInvestment SummaryCatalystsDCF AssumptionsFinancial AnalysisKey RatiosCash Burn RateR&D ExpenseSegment Analysis
Pro Forma StatementsIncome StatementBalance SheetStatement of Cash FlowsOtherBoard of DirectorsManagementManagement CompensationBusiness OverviewPartnershipsGoing GreenUS Truck MarketCompetitorsEarly AdvantageCompetitive AnalysisGovernment IncentivesInternal RiskExternal Risk
AP
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Investment Summary
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
– Neutral +
Industry
Engine Competition
Alternative Competition
Financial
Management
Risk
32
AP
PE
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IX
2011 E 2012 E 2013 E 2014 E 2015 E 2016 E 2017 E 2018 E 2019 E 2020 E
Product
Units shipped 4,509 5,411 6,493 7,792 9,350 10,285 11,314 12,445 13,690 15,059
Unit shipped growth 15% 20% 20% 20% 20% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
Unit price 26.55 27.08 27.62 28.17 28.74 29.02 29.31 29.61 29.90 30.20
Unit price growth 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Product revenue 119,703 146,517 179,337 219,508 268,678 298,501 331,635 368,447 409,344 454,781
Parts 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 10.0%
% Previous 2-years' product sales
18% 18% 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10%
Parts revenue 36,865 39,915 45,257 52,137 59,827 68,346 73,733 75,616 77,009 77,779
Service 6,000 5,000 4,000
Total revenue 162,568 191,433 228,594 271,645 328,505 366,848 405,369 444,063 486,353 532,561
Source: Team B Student Research
Revenue Forecast
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
33
AP
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0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Parts Revenue as % of Previous 2 Years’ Product Revenue
Parts Revenue
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
34
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
Parts Revenue
AP
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Rolling 12 Month Basis
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
35
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
2009 Q1
2009 Q2
2009 Q3
2009 Q4
2010 Q1
2010 Q2
2010 Q3
2010 Q4
2011 Q1
2011 Q2
Revenue Gross Margin
AP
PE
ND
IXFactor Rate Source
Beta 1.53 Bloomberg risk-adjusted 5-yr monthly beta
Rf 3.55% Bank of Canada 10-yr bond yield as of 1 Dec 2010
Risk premium 5.00%Market implied risk premiumSource: Damodaran (2010)
Cost of equity 11.18% Calculated using CAPM
Cost of debt 8.10% After tax interest rate on most recent debt offering
WACC 11.10% Weight-adjusted by market value of debt to equity
Source: Team B Student Research
Discount Rate Calculation
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
36
AP
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DCF Assumptions
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
Commodity Price Risk
Development Risk
development cost overruns
procurement delays
permitting issues
Operational Risk
Weather related
Unexpected changes in mineralogy
Currency Risks
37
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Source: Team B Student Research
Discounted FCFF
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
38
2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e
After-tax operating earnings (7,015) (12,391) (7,795) (579) 3,903 7,377 12,995 11,064 10,097 36,722
Less: Changes in non-cash
working capital (13,748) (13,292) (16,991) (20,626) (25,464) (17,454) (17,661) (17,891) (19,652) (14,723)
Less: Cap Ex - Depreciation (2,353) (1,185) (277) 290 671 (548) 815 490 473 479
Free cash flow to firm 9,086 2,086 9,473 19,758 28,696 25,379 29,840 28,465 29,276 50,967
Discount factor 1.11 1.23 1.37 1.52 1.69 1.88 2.09 2.32 2.58 2.87
Present value 8,177 1,690 6,908 12,968 16,953 13,495 14,282 12,263 11,352 560,094
AP
PE
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IXAccount Balances 2011 E 2012 E 2013 E 2014 E 2015 E 2016 E 2017 E 2018 E 2019 E 2020 E
Non-cash current assets
Accounts receivable 18,216 21,450 25,614 30,437 36,809 41,105 45,421 49,757 54,495 59,673
Inventories 10,833 12,900 15,540 18,796 22,730 25,383 28,048 30,726 33,652 34,015
Prepaid expenses 1,567 1,880 2,254 2,703 3,242 3,887 4,662 5,591 6,704 8,040
Non-debt current liabilities
Accounts payable and accrued liabilities
15,416 18,357 22,114 26,747 32,346 36,121 39,914 43,724 47,888 48,404
Deferred revenue 1,657 1,973 2,377 2,875 3,477 3,883 4,291 4,700 5,148 5,637
Warranty liability 12,877 15,163 18,107 21,517 26,021 29,058 32,109 35,174 38,524 37,279
Source: Team B Student Research
Schedule of Working Capital
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
39
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Source: Team B Student Research
Schedule of Net Investment
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
40
2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e
∆Sales/Cap Ex 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Capital Expenditure 1,318 1,523 1,946 2,399 2,899 1,955 1,964 1,973 2,156 2,356
Depreciation 3,671 2,708 2,223 2,110 2,228 2,503 1,149 1,483 1,683 1,877
PPE 3,856 2,671 2,394 2,684 3,355 2,807 3,623 4,113 4,586 5,065
AP
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Key Financial Ratios
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
20
10
20
09
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
Return from Prior Year 2008 2009 2010Profitability
Revenues (CAD) 71.5 121.8 130.7
Gross Margin 31.5% 25.3% 31.6%
Net Income (CAD) -10.3 -24.4 -37.6
Net Profit Margin-
14.4%-
20.0%-
28.8%
Operation Efficiency
Return on Assets-
13.1%-
18.0%-
24.1%
Return on Equity-
34.6%-
40.1%-
44.3%Asset Turnover Ratio
0.91 0.90 0.84
Liquidity
Current Ratio 1.8 3.6 4.8
Quick Ratio 1.5 3.2 4.5
Leverage
Debt-Equity Ratio 1.7 1.2 0.8
41
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Cash Burn Rate
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
2009 Q3 – 2010 Q2 Total
Net Income -31.22
Add: Depreciation & Amortization 2.36
Other Non-Cash Adjustments 9.92
Changes in Non-Cash Capital 14.64
Cash Outflow -15.63
Monthly Burn Rate -1.30
Cash at 2010 Q2 71.59
Months of Burn Remaining 55.07
42
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R&D Expense
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43
R&D Expense
Net Income
Net Income Without R&D
2003 37.29 -48.51 -11.22
2004 26.09 -37.72 -11.63
2005 18.42 -26.21 -7.79
2006 16.94 -16.86 0.08
2007 21.89 -11.31 10.58
2008 23.03 -10.32 12.71
2009 30.98 -24.43 6.55
2010 28.41 -37.64 -9.23
AP
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Segment Analysis
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
Figure 8.2. Natural Gas Vehicle Growth by Region
Region Average Growth
Asia-Pacific 51.0%
Europe 15.8%
North America -0.1%
Latin America 23.5%
Africa 19.2%
Worldwide 27.5%
Source: IANGV
44
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Investment Risks
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
Figure 8.3. Incremental Engine Costs Over
Diesel
(in $US)
Sector (in thousand lb) Extra Cost
Light-duty (10 lb – 14 lb) 17,000
Medium-duty (14 lb – 26 lb) 40,000
Heavy-duty (26 lb +) 60,000
Source: EIA
Figure 8.4. Natural Gas Station in Each State
45
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Income Statement
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
46
2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e
Revenues 71,536 121,837 130,712 162,568 191,433 228,594 271,645 328,505 366,848 405,369 444,063 486,353 532,561
CoGS (49,023) (91,020) (89,352) (101,769) (121,181) (145,986) (176,569) (213,528) (238,451) (263,490) (288,641) (316,130) (319,536)
Gross profit 22,513 30,817 41,360 60,799 70,251 82,608 95,076 114,977 128,397 141,879 155,422 170,224 213,024
Research and development (23,026) (30,982) (28,411) (28,979) (29,559) (30,150) (30,451) (30,756) (31,064) (31,374) (31,688) (32,005) (32,325)
General and administrative (6,033) (8,575) (12,728) (15,430) (18,705) (22,675) (27,488) (33,322) (40,395) (48,969) (59,363) (71,963) (87,238)
Sales and marketing (10,550) (15,071) (18,102) (18,230) (29,436) (35,355) (35,606) (44,768) (47,058) (47,392) (51,824) (54,476) (54,862)
Depreciation and amortization (1,550) (1,978) (2,128) (3,671) (2,708) (2,223) (2,110) (2,228) (2,503) (1,149) (1,483) (1,683) (1,877)
Foreign exchange gain (loss) (1,287) (682) (348) (424) (424) (424) - - - - - - -
Interest income 1,316 1,882 383 1,713 3,538 3,878 3,956 5,409 6,017 7,607 8,628 9,741 13,259
Other non-operating income
(expense)5,095 9,033 (5,559) (8,591) (9,857) (11,123) (12,389) (13,655) (14,921) (16,187) (17,453) (18,719) (19,985)
EBIT (13,522) (15,556) (25,533) (12,814) (16,899) (15,465) (9,012) (4,343) (1,527) 4,415 2,239 1,118 29,996
Interest expense (1,266) (2,348) (3,208) (2,681) (2,777) (2,897) (576) (617) (660) (706) (756) (809) (866)
Pretax income (14,788) (17,904) (28,741) (15,495) (19,676) (18,361) (9,588) (4,960) (2,186) 3,709 1,483 309 29,130
Income tax recovery (expense) 4,473 (6,521) (8,895) (1,504) (2,235) - - - - - - - -
Net income (10,315) (24,425) (37,636) (16,999) (21,911) (18,361) (9,588) (4,960) (2,186) 3,709 1,483 309 29,130
Less: Abnormal gains (losses) 10,659 14,275 2,972 - - - - - - - - - -
Normalized income (20,974) (38,700) (40,608) (16,999) (21,911) (18,361) (9,588) (4,960) (2,186) 3,709 1,483 309 29,130
AP
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Balance Sheet
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
47
2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e
Current assets
Cash and cash equivalents 22,762 82,619 105,851 211,461 192,116 191,894 192,455 209,803 235,032 268,771 305,162 345,581
Accounts receivable 7,028 6,417 11,570 18,216 21,450 25,614 30,437 36,809 41,105 45,421 49,757 54,495
Loan receivable 6,774 11,234 13,505 15,146 18,035 21,727 26,279 31,779 35,489 39,215 42,958 47,049
Inventories 9,020 13,982 8,175 10,833 12,900 15,540 18,796 22,730 25,383 28,048 30,726 33,652
Prepaid expenses 1,033 1,387 1,307 1,567 1,880 2,254 2,703 3,242 3,887 4,662 5,591 6,704
Other current assets 4,944 4,451 5,069 5,069 5,069 5,069 5,069 5,069 5,069 5,069 5,069 5,069
Total Current assets 51,561 120,090 145,477 262,292 251,449 262,098 275,740 309,431 345,965 391,186 439,262 492,551
Equipment, furniture and
leasehold improvements 3,685 7,712 6,209 3,856 2,671 2,394 2,684 3,355 2,807 3,623 4,113 4,586
Intangible assets 574 430 287 5,648 4,518 3,389 2,259 1,130 - - - -
Goodwill - - - 8,665 8,665 8,665 8,665 8,665 8,665 8,665 8,665 8,665
Future income tax assets 4,366 5,337 4,144 4,144 4,144 4,144 4,144 4,144 4,144 4,144 4,144 4,144
Other long-term assets 18,754 1,935 - - - - - - - - - -
Total long-term assets 27,379 15,414 10,640 22,313 19,998 18,592 17,752 17,294 15,616 16,431 16,922 17,395
Total Assets 78,940 135,504 156,117 284,606 271,448 280,690 293,491 326,725 361,582 407,618 456,184 509,945
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Balance Sheet
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
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2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e
Current Liabilities
Accounts payable and
accrued liabilities 8,470 14,359 13,902 15,416 18,357 22,114 26,747 32,346 36,121 39,914 43,724 47,888
Deferred revenue 205 546 891 1,657 1,973 2,377 2,875 3,477 3,883 4,291 4,700 5,148
Demand instalment loan 5,776 4,642 3,295 - - - - - - - - -
Short-term debt 5,995 1,614 163 200 - - - - - - - -
Current portion of long-
term debt 54 17 139 14,003 81 1 - - - - - -
Current portion of warranty
liability 4,899 12,222 12,082 12,467 14,845 17,884 21,630 26,158 29,211 32,278 35,359 38,727
Obligation to issue warrants 4,000 - - - - - - - - - - -
Total Current liabilities 29,399 33,400 30,472 43,744 35,257 42,376 51,253 61,981 69,215 76,483 83,784 91,763
Warranty liability 4,258 12,369 9,199 10,717 12,762 15,374 18,595 22,487 25,112 27,748 30,397 33,292
Long-term debt 8 11,353 12,936 9,452 9,720 10,080 - - - - - -
Other long-term liabilities 1,496 4,821 5,271 36,977 51,906 69,417 89,789 113,362 140,547 172,969 210,104 252,682
Total liabilities 49,144 74,546 71,222 100,891 109,644 137,247 159,637 197,830 234,873 277,201 324,285 377,737
Share capital 258,202 311,855 376,710 492,529 492,529 492,529 492,529 492,529 492,529 492,529 492,529 492,529
Other equity instruments 3,079 12,319 12,293 12,293 12,293 12,293 12,293 12,293 12,293 12,293 12,293 12,293
Additional paid in capital 5,097 5,263 5,260 5,260 5,260 5,260 5,260 5,260 5,260 5,260 5,260 5,260
Accumulated deficit (247,460) (271,885) (309,521) (326,520) (348,431) (366,792) (376,380) (381,340) (383,527) (379,818) (378,335) (378,026)
Accumulated other
comprehensive income 10,878 3,406 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153
Total Shareholders' equity 29,796 60,958 84,895 183,715 161,804 143,443 133,855 128,895 126,708 130,417 131,900 132,208
Total Liabilities and Equity 78,940 135,504 156,117 284,606 271,448 280,690 293,491 326,725 361,582 407,618 456,184 509,945
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Statement of Cash Flows
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
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2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e
Cash flows from operating
activities
Loss for the year (10,315) (24,425) (37,636) (16,999) (21,911) (18,361) (9,588) (4,960) (2,186) 3,709 1,483 309 29,130
Items not involving cash
Depreciation and amortization 1,550 1,978 2,128 3,671 2,708 2,223 2,110 2,228 2,503 1,149 1,483 1,683 1,877
Joint Venture Partners' share of
net income from joint ventures 5,564 4,221 7,453 8,591 9,857 11,123 12,389 13,655 14,921 16,187 17,453 18,719 19,985
Changes in non-cash operating
working capital 1,795 16,349 3,028 (5,380) 2,066 2,634 3,570 3,776 2,264 2,149 2,008 2,096 972
Other (14,393) (7,399) 2,974 6,261 6,201 7,518 9,113 11,048 13,393 16,235 19,682 23,859 28,923
(15,799) (9,276) (22,053) (3,857) (1,078) 5,136 17,593 25,747 30,894 39,429 42,108 46,666 80,887
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Statement of Cash Flows
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
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2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e
Cash flows from investing
activities
Purchase of equipment,
furniture and leasehold
improvements
(1,081) (5,904) (256) (1,318) (1,523) (1,946) (2,399) (2,899) (1,955) (1,964) (1,973) (2,156) (2,356)
Long-term investments 17,977 19,379 3,811 - - - - - - - - - -
Loan receivable (6,774) (1,641) (4,789) (1,641) (2,889) (3,692) (4,552) (5,501) (3,709) (3,726) (3,743) (4,091) (4,470)
Other investing activities 7,150 (28,199) 8,753 - - - - - - - - - -
17,272 (16,365) 7,519 (2,960) (4,412) (5,638) (6,951) (8,400) (5,664) (5,691) (5,716) (6,248) (6,826)
Cash flows from financing
activities
Short-term debt 10,158 (6,413) (2,552) (3,258) (200) - - - - - - - -
Long-term debt (6,814) 13,891 (47) (135) (13,655) 280 (10,081) - - - - - -
Share issuance 1,041 53,024 59,999 115,819 - - - - - - - - -
Other financing activities - (9,259) (4,218) - - - - - - - - - -
4,385 51,243 53,182 112,426 (13,855) 280 (10,081) - - - - - -
Increase in cash and cash
equivalents 5,858 25,602 38,648 105,610 (19,345) (222) 562 17,347 25,230 33,738 36,391 40,419 74,061
Cash and cash equiv,
beginning of year 23,081 22,762 82,619 105,851 211,461 192,116 191,894 192,455 209,803 235,032 268,771 305,162 345,581
Cash and cash equiv, end of
year 22,762 82,619 105,851 211,461 192,116 191,894 192,455 209,803 235,032 268,771 305,162 345,581 419,642
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Management Compensation
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
Name Position WPT Start Date
Total Compensation
ExerciseableOptions
UnexercisableOptions
John A Beaulieu Chairman Sep-97 246,154
David Demers CEO/Co-Founder
Mar-95 805,313 950,557 639,296
William Edward Larkin
CFO Feb-10 246,154
Elaine A Wong Exec VP: Strategic Development
Sep-01 495,124 316,410 581,168
Nicholas C Sonntag
Exec VP: Corporate Development
Oct-06 584,997 111,818 181,038
Darren Seed VP: Investor Relations & Comm
Melih Ogmen VP: Fuel Systems & Supply Chain
449,271
W Chipman Johnston
Secretary
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Extensive Experience
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
Sara Liao SauFormer Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works of Hong Kong
John Beaulieu, ChairmanExperienced in financing and assisting growth of more than 70 emerging technology firms
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Board of Directors – Key Members
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Extensive Experience
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
Dezsö J. HorváthDean of Schulich School of Business, York University, named AIB International Den of the year
M.A. Jill BodkinFounding Chair of the British Columbia Securities Commission, Former Ernst & Young Corporate Finance Partner
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Board of Directors – Key Members
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Extensive Experience
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
Bill. E. Larkin,CFOFormer CFO of Fuel Systems Solutions, Inc. and DDi Corp., auditor at Deloitte & Touche LLP
David R. Demers, CEOCEO since 1995, background in both physics and law, on board of directors from Primero Mining Corp. and CWI
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Management
Elaine A. Wong, Exec. VPFormer CFO of Westport, extensive experience in international strategic planning in Canada and Asia
Nicholas C. Sonntag, Exec. VPPresident, Westport Asia and Europe. Former President of CH2M Hill in China and Canada,
W. Chipman JohnstonCorporate Secretary for Westport, Partner of Bennett ones LLP, experience in M&A
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Business Overview
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
• Develops technologies which convert diesel engines to run on natural gas.
• Establishes partnerships with OEM’s
• Operates globally but currently derives majority of revenue from US market which only makes up 1.3% of NGV market.
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Partnerships
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
Partnerships
Global Engine Producers Rank Partnership
Weichai 1 YES
Volvo 2 YES
Diamler 3 -
Cummins 4 YES
CNHTC 5 -
Global Truck Producers Rank Partnership
Daimler 1 YES
Volvo 2 YES
Dongfeng 3 YES
Tata 4 YES
FAW 5 -
Source(s): Westport November Presentation, AutomoticeWorld.com
• Established partnerships with industry leaders
• Only profitable venture is CWI
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Going Green
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
Figure 5.4 Fossil Fuel Emission Levels (Lb / Billion Btu of Energy Input)
Pollutant Natural Gas Oil Coal
Carbon Dioxide 117,000 164,000 208,000
Carbon Monoxide 40 33 208
Nitrogen Oxides 92 448 457
Sulfur Dioxide 1 1,122 2,591
Particulates 7 84 2,744
Mercury 0 0.007 0.016
Source: EIA - Natural Gas Issues and Trends 1998
“…natural gas is the cleanest fossil fuel and a highly efficient form of energy.” ~pickensplan.com
• Worldwide use of natural gas vehicles has grown 27.5% per year since 2000.
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US Truck Market
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
Thousands of Trucks
1992 1997 2002
Light Trucks (in thousand lb)
Less than 6 lb 50,545.7 62,798.4 62,617.3
6 to 10 lb 4,647.5 5,301.5 17,142.3
Medium Trucks (in thousand lb)
10.0 to 14.0 lb 694.3 818.9 1,142.1
14.0 to 16.0 lb 282.4 315.9 395.9
16.0 to 19.5 lb 282.3 300.8 376.1
Light-heavy Trucks (in thousand lb)
19.5 to 26.0 lb 732.0 729.3
Heavy Trucks (in thousand lb)
26.0 to 33.0 lb 387.3 427.7 436.8
33.0 to 40.0 lb 232.6 256.7 228.8
40.0 to 50.0 lb 338.6 399.9 318.4
50.0 to 60.0 lb 226.7 311.4 326.6
60.0 to 80.0 lb 781.1 1,069.8 1,178.7
80.0 to 100.0 lb 33.3 46.3 68.9
100.0 to 130.0 lb 12.3 17.9 26.4
130.0 lb or more 4.6 5.9 6.3
Not reported <50 <50 NA
ALL trucks 59,200.8 72,800.3 85,174.8
Source(s): 1992, 1997, 2002: U.S. Census Bureau
• 42% increase in overall number of trucks during ten year period.
• 28% increase in Heavy Trucks.
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Competitors
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
Westport Innovations Business Units
Heavy Duty Medium Light dutyR&D
Services
Westport HD CWI Juniper Westport
Weichai, Volvo, Daimler, CumminsAdvanced Fuels Technologies,
PrinsAutogassystemen
Fuel Systems Solutions Inc.
Landi Renzo
Revenues ROE
Westport 130,710,000 -51.61
Competitors
Diesel
Weichai 14,425,690,000 34.5
Volvo 193,063,000,000 -19.57
Daimler 26,808,000,000 -8.59
Cummins 6,405,000,000 12.22
Natural Gas
Fuel Systems Solutions 453,320,000 25.1
Landi Renzo 270,770,000 16.8
*Data in USD for FY 2009
Source: Bloomberg
Westport faces robust competition from established diesel engine manufacturers
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Operating Efficiency
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
Sharp decline in contribution margin in 2010 due to:
New emissions standards, requiring redesigned components
Transition to new suppliers
-50.0%
0.0%
50.0%
100.0%
150.0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
∆CoGS/∆Revenues
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Early Advantage
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
Founding at UBC
Westport’s Advantages
Early to market
Highlight of some tech
Relationships
Partners / Suppliers
Customers
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Competitive Analysis
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
Competitive Rivalry
Moderate
Threat of New Entrants
Low
Power of Buyers
Moderate
Threat of Substitutes
High
Power of Suppliers
Low
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Government Incentives
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
Income tax credits for natural gas refuelling equipment
Excise tax credit to seller of CNG or LNG
Income tax credits for alternative fuel vehicles
NAT GAS Act
“I think that the odds are low in a lame duck session” David Demers, CEO (Q2 2011 Earnings Call)
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High Internal Risk
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
Financial risks
High R&D costs
Takeover risk due to excess cash
Adoption risks
Lack of infrastructure
Psychology risk
Technology risks
R&D and intellectual capital expiration
New technology
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High External Risk
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
Management risk
High exposure to JV and partnership risk
Legislative and environmental risk
Demand affected by natural gas act
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Free Cash Flow
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
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2010 2011 2012 2013 …Terminal
2020
After-tax operating earnings
(28,904) (7,015) (12,391) (7,795) 36,722
Less: Changes in non-cash working capital
(3,400) (13,748) (13,292) (16,991) (14,723)
Less: Cap Ex -Depreciation
(1,872) (2,353) (1,185) (277) 479
Free cash flow to firm (23,632) 9,086 2,086 9,473 50,967
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Break-Even Point
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
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Continued revenue growth and operating efficiency improvements lead to break-even in operating earnings by 2015
Net income could become positive by 2017
-$50,000
-$40,000
-$30,000
-$20,000
-$10,000
$0
$10,000
$20,000
2006 2008 2010 2012e 2014e 2016e 2018e
Operating Income (EBIT) Normalized income
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Leasing Program
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
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Original Program
Purchasing program
One amortization period based on base truck chassis
Upfront capital cost
New Program
Leasing program
Price components with different amortization periods
Payment over the life of lease on per mile basis
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Global Relationships
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
69
Vancouver
Vancouver
Sweden
China
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Stock Price Movement
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
70
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
Jan 2006 Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011
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Natural Gas Consumption
Simon Fraser University | March, 2011Disclaimer: This information is provided to you for informational purposes only and is intended for use only by the Global Investment Research Challenge.
71
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
Natural Gas: Vehicle Consumption(Billion Cubic Feet)