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Western Treasure Valley Economic Breakfast
Economic OverviewMarch 17, 2016
Utah is One of the Fastest Growing
States in the CountryPercent Change in Population for States: 2012 to 2013
U.S. Rate = 0.7%
Source: U.S Census Bureau
Population Loss
NM
0.1%
UT
1.6%
AZ
1.2%
CA
0.9%
NV
1.3%
OR
0.8%
TX
1.5%
OK
0.9%
CO
1.5%
WA
1.1%
ID
1.0%
MT
1.0%
WY
1.0%
ND
3.1%
SD
1.3%
MN
0.8%
NE
0.7%
KS
0.3%
IA
0.5%
MO
0.3%
AR
0.3%
LA
0.5%
WI
0.3%
IL
0.1%IN
0.5%
OH
0.2%
FL
1.2%
TN 0.6%
KY 0.4%
MS
0.2%AL
0.3%
GA
0.8%
SC
1.1%
NC 1.0%
VA
0.9%
WV
-0.1%
PA
0.1%
NY
0.4%
ME
-0.01%
AK
0.7%
HI
1.0%
MA
0.7%
VT
0.1%
NH
0.1%
RI
0.1%
CT
0.1%
NJ
0.4%
DE
0.9%
MD
0.7%
MI
0.1%
.075% to 1.10%
0.5% to 0.9%
DC
2.1%
1.15% or more
0% to 0.4%
KS
0.3%
National Economic Conditions
Utah is One of the Fastest Growing
States in the CountryPercent Change in Population for States: 2012 to 2013
U.S. Rate = 0.7%
Source: U.S Census Bureau
Population Loss
NM
0.1%
UT
1.6%
AZ
1.2%
CA
0.9%
NV
1.3%
OR
0.8%
TX
1.5%
OK
0.9%
CO
1.5%
WA
1.1%
ID
1.0%
MT
1.0%
WY
1.0%
ND
3.1%
SD
1.3%
MN
0.8%
NE
0.7%
KS
0.3%
IA
0.5%
MO
0.3%
AR
0.3%
LA
0.5%
WI
0.3%
IL
0.1%IN
0.5%
OH
0.2%
FL
1.2%
TN 0.6%
KY 0.4%
MS
0.2%AL
0.3%
GA
0.8%
SC
1.1%
NC 1.0%
VA
0.9%
WV
-0.1%
PA
0.1%
NY
0.4%
ME
-0.01%
AK
0.7%
HI
1.0%
MA
0.7%
VT
0.1%
NH
0.1%
RI
0.1%
CT
0.1%
NJ
0.4%
DE
0.9%
MD
0.7%
MI
0.1%
.075% to 1.10%
0.5% to 0.9%
DC
2.1%
1.15% or more
0% to 0.4%
KS
0.3%
A period of increasing interest rates?...
It’s up to the Fed
National Job Growth Improving
-900
-700
-500
-300
-100
100
300
500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
8.7 Million Jobs Lost
13 Million
Jobs Recovered
Pa
yro
ll C
ha
ng
e 0
00
’s
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Monthly Change in Employment by IndustryTotal Change in Number of Jobs by Industry: Jan 2016 to Feb 2016
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonally adjusted
Industry Sector Monthly Jobs Added/Lost
Natural Resources/Mining -18,000
Construction 19,000
Manufacturing -16,000
Trade, Transportation, Utilities 53,000
Information 12,000
Financial Activity 6,000
Professional & Business 23,000
Education & Health Services 86,000
Leisure & Hospitality 48,000
Other Services 17,000
Government 12,000
TOTAL 242,000
National Employment Change
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonally adjusted
Percent Change in National Employment by Industry: Feb 2015 to Feb 2016
0.3%
1.2%
3.0%
3.2%
3.1%
1.8%
1.5%
1.8%
0.1%
4.0%
-16.1%
-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%
Government
Other Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Ed. & Health Serv.
Prof. & Bus. Serv.
Financial Activity
Information
Trade, Trans., Utilities
Manufacturing
Construction
Ntl. Res. & MiningTotal: 1.9%
National Employment ChangeTotal Change in Number of Jobs by Industry in Thousands: Feb 2015 to Feb 2016
75
66
446
698
610
142
41
470
12
253
-141
-200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Government
Other Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Ed. & Health Serv.
Prof. & Bus. Serv.
Financial Activity
Information
Trade, Trans., Utilities
Manufacturing
Construction
Ntl. Res. & Mining
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonally adjusted
U.S. Unemployment Rates Dropping
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
4.9% in Feb
U.S. Wage Growth Steady
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Note: Growth rate calculated using real chained 1982-1984 dollars
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2007-2015
Average
2.4%
Consumption Drives Growth
-5%
-3%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
2012 2013 2014
Fixed Investment
Inventories
Net Exports
Government
Personal Consumption
Co
ntr
ibu
tio
n t
o G
DP
Gro
wth
2015
Total GDP Growth
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
4Q GDP 1.0%
Consumer Confidence Only Slightly Higher than One Year Ago
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
120.0
Ap
r 2
01
2
Ju
l 2
012
Oct
20
12
Jan
201
3
Ap
r 2
01
3
Ju
l 2
013
Oct
20
13
Jan
201
4
Ap
r 2
01
4
Ju
l 2
014
Oct
20
14
Jan
201
5
Ap
r 2
01
5
Ju
l 2
015
Oct
20
15
Jan
201
6
Above 110 indicates economic prosperity
Source: U.S. CCI from The Conference Board
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Growth in Consumer Spending Remains Low
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
Pe
rce
nt
Personal Consumption Expenditure Yearly Percent Change
Underemployment Remains Stubbornly High
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
U-6 (Underemployed) U-3 (Unemployment)
Labor Force Participation Rate Among Lowest in Over 35 Years
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Note: Seasonally adjusted
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
195
0
195
5
196
0
196
5
197
0
197
5
198
0
198
5
199
0
199
5
200
0
200
5
201
0
201
5
Mar 2000
67.3%
Feb 1978
62.8%
Feb 2016
62.9%
%
Producer Price Index
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonally adjusted
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.02
01
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
Year-to-Year Change
Pe
rce
nt
CPI Inflation Increasing
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
Au
g 2
01
1
No
v 2
01
1
Fe
b 2
012
Ma
y 2
012
Au
g 2
01
2
No
v 2
01
2
Fe
b 2
013
Ma
y 2
013
Au
g 2
01
3
No
v 2
01
3
Fe
b 2
014
Ma
y 2
014
Au
g 2
01
4
No
v 2
01
4
Fe
b 2
015
Ma
y 2
015
Au
g 2
01
5
No
v 2
01
5
Fe
b 2
016
U.S. Consumer Price Index Yearly Change Rate
U.S. Core CPI vs Core PCE
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis; Core CPI and Core PCE represent all items less food and energy
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
Pe
rce
nt
Yearly Change Rate
U.S. Core CPI U.S. Core PCE
Cumulative Job Loss by Months of Recession
Source: Euler Hermes analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Data
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Cumulative Job Loss by Months of Recession
Source: Euler Hermes analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Data
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Cumulative Job Loss by Months of Recession
Source: Euler Hermes analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Data
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Euro compared to U.S. Dollar
$0.80
$0.90
$1.00
$1.10
$1.20
$1.30
$1.40
$1.50
$1.6020
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
USD
PARITY
$1.39
Source: Investing.com
$1.05
US Dollar Compared to Chinese YuanInverted Scale
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis
$6.00
$6.50
$7.00
$7.50
$8.00
$8.50
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
2010China allows
the yuanto rise
Aug 2015China
devalues the yuanby largest amount
in 20 years
2001China joins WTO 2005
China allows
the yuanto rise
2008China
stops the yuan’s
rise
The World’s Devaluing Currencies Compared to the USD
November 2014-November 2015
Source: CNNMoney’s reporting of data from Factset
Note: 12-month change ending November 10, 2015
Sources: Pre-2016 data from U.S. Energy Information Administration; Post-2016 from Investing.com
$ P
er
Barr
el
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
$70.00
$80.00
$90.00
$100.00
$110.00
$120.00
Sep
-13
Oct-
13
No
v-1
3
Dec-1
3
Jan
-14
Fe
b-1
4
Ma
r-14
Ap
r-14
Ma
y-1
4
Ju
n-1
4
Ju
l-14
Au
g-1
4
Sep
-14
Oct-
14
No
v-1
4
Dec-1
4
Jan
-15
Fe
b-1
5
Ma
r-15
Ap
r-15
Ma
y-1
5
Ju
n-1
5
Ju
l-15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct-
15
No
v-1
5
Dec-1
5
Jan
-16
Fe
b-1
6
Ma
r-16
$26
$108
Oil Prices Hit Lowest Point in Over a Decade
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration; weekly averages
Oil Prices Hit Lowest Point in Over a Decade
$ P
er
Barr
el
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.002
00
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
$108
$26
Source: Baker Hughes
Note: Total count includes oil and gas rigs
Total U.S. Rig Count Down Significantly
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,2002
00
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
1,931
480
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
Effective Fed Rate
12-month change in PCE price index
Unemployment Rate (right axis)
Fed Fund Rate, Inflation, and Unemployment
Sources: U.S. Federal Reserve, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Note: PCE is total personal consumption expenditures
First Fed rate increase since
2006
2015
Federal Funds Rate Forecast(December 2015)
Source: American Bankers Association Analysis of Data from the Federal Reserve
2016
0
1
2
3
4
5
Pe
rce
nt
2017 2018
2016
Federal Funds Rate Forecast(March 2016)
Source: American Bankers Association Analysis of Data from the Federal Reserve
2017
0
1
2
3
4
5
Pe
rce
nt
2018 2019
Utah is One of the Fastest Growing
States in the CountryPercent Change in Population for States: 2012 to 2013
U.S. Rate = 0.7%
Source: U.S Census Bureau
Population Loss
NM
0.1%
UT
1.6%
AZ
1.2%
CA
0.9%
NV
1.3%
OR
0.8%
TX
1.5%
OK
0.9%
CO
1.5%
WA
1.1%
ID
1.0%
MT
1.0%
WY
1.0%
ND
3.1%
SD
1.3%
MN
0.8%
NE
0.7%
KS
0.3%
IA
0.5%
MO
0.3%
AR
0.3%
LA
0.5%
WI
0.3%
IL
0.1%IN
0.5%
OH
0.2%
FL
1.2%
TN 0.6%
KY 0.4%
MS
0.2%AL
0.3%
GA
0.8%
SC
1.1%
NC 1.0%
VA
0.9%
WV
-0.1%
PA
0.1%
NY
0.4%
ME
-0.01%
AK
0.7%
HI
1.0%
MA
0.7%
VT
0.1%
NH
0.1%
RI
0.1%
CT
0.1%
NJ
0.4%
DE
0.9%
MD
0.7%
MI
0.1%
.075% to 1.10%
0.5% to 0.9%
DC
2.1%
1.15% or more
0% to 0.4%
KS
0.3%
Local Economic Conditions
Idaho Population Growth 11th Fastest in U.S.
Percent Change: 2014 to 2015U.S. Rate = 0.8%
Source: U.S Census Bureau
Population Loss
0.8% to 1.4% (at or above U.S. rate)
0.3% to 0.7%
1.5% or more
0.0% to 0.2%
NM
0.0%
UT
1.7%
AZ
1.5%
CA
0.9%
NV
1.9%
OR
1.5%
TX
1.8%
OK
0.8%
CO
1.9%
WA
1.5%
ID
1.2%
MT
0.9%
WY
0.3%
ND
2.3%
SD
0.6%
MN
0.6%
NE
0.7%
KS
0.3%
IA
0.5%
MO
0.3%
AR
0.4%
LA
0.5%
WI
0.2%
IL
-0.2%IN
0.3%
OH
0.1%
FL
1.8%
TN 0.8%
KY 0.3%
MS
0.0%AL
0.3%
GA
1.2%
SC
1.4%
NC 1.0%
VA
0.7%
WV
-0.3%
PA
0.1%
NY
0.2%
ME
-0.1%
AK
0.2%
HI
0.8%
MA
0.6%
VT
-0.1%
NH
0.2%
RI
0.1%
CT
-0.1%
NJ
0.2%
DE
1.1%
MD
0.5%
MI
0.1%
DC
1.9%
KS
0.3%
Oregon Population Growth9th in the Nation
Percent Change: 2014 to 2015U.S. Rate = 0.8%
Source: U.S Census Bureau
Population Loss
0.8% to 1.4% (at or above U.S. rate)
0.3% to 0.7%
1.5% or more
0.0% to 0.2%
NM
0.0%
UT
1.7%
AZ
1.5%
CA
0.9%
NV
1.9%
OR
1.5%
TX
1.8%
OK
0.8%
CO
1.9%
WA
1.5%
ID
1.2%
MT
0.9%
WY
0.3%
ND
2.3%
SD
0.6%
MN
0.6%
NE
0.7%
KS
0.3%
IA
0.5%
MO
0.3%
AR
0.4%
LA
0.5%
WI
0.2%
IL
-0.2%IN
0.3%
OH
0.1%
FL
1.8%
TN 0.8%
KY 0.3%
MS
0.0%AL
0.3%
GA
1.2%
SC
1.4%
NC 1.0%
VA
0.7%
WV
-0.3%
PA
0.1%
NY
0.2%
ME
-0.1%
AK
0.2%
HI
0.8%
MA
0.6%
VT
-0.1%
NH
0.2%
RI
0.1%
CT
-0.1%
NJ
0.2%
DE
1.1%
MD
0.5%
MI
0.1%
DC
1.9%
KS
0.3%
Idaho PopulationGrowth Rates
By County2013 to 2014
State Average = 1.3%
Increase of 0.4% to 0.8%
Increase of 0.0% to 0.3%
Increase of 1.4% or Greater
Increase of 0.9% to 1.3%
Population Loss
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Jerome
0.9%
Jefferson
0.6%
Idaho
0.1%
Gooding
-0.2%
Gem
1.0%
Fremont
-0.3%
Franklin
1.3%
Elmore
-0.2%
Custer
-2.2%
Clearwater
-0.5%
Washington
0.7% Clark
0.7%
Valley
2.5%
Cassia
0.8%
Twin Falls
1.3%
Caribou
0.1%
Teton
0.4%Canyon
2.1%
Shoshone
-2.3%
Camas
0.0%
Power
-1.0%
Butte
-0.2%
Payette
1.1%
Boundary
1.0%
Owyhee
-0.6%
Bonneville
1.0%
Bonner
2.2%
Nez Perce
0.2%
Boise
1.2%
Minidoka
0.1%
Blaine
0.8%
Madison
1.2%
Bingham
-0.3%Lincoln
0.2%
Benewah
0.8%
Lewis
0.3%
Bear Lake
0.3%
Lemhi
0.0%
Bannock
0.0%
Latah
0.5%
Adams
0.8%
Kootenai
2.1%
Ada
2.3%
Oneida
-2.0%
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,0001
98
1
198
2
198
3
198
4
198
5
198
6
198
7
198
8
198
9
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
Net Migration Natural Increase Total Population
10,925
9,097
1,654,930
Idaho Population and Components of Change
Source: Zions Bank analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data
To
tal
Po
pu
lati
on
Co
mp
on
en
ts o
f Po
pu
latio
n C
ha
ng
e
Percent Change in Employment for States: Jan 2015 to Jan 2016U.S. Rate = 1.9%
Note: Seasonally Adjusted
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
NM
0.2%
UT
3.0%
AZ
2.9%
CA
2.8%
NV
2.7%
OR
3.4%
TX
1.6%
OK
-0.6%
CO
2.7%
WA
3.0%
ID
3.9%
MT
0.9%
WY
-3.0%
ND
-4.5%
SD
1.1%
MN
1.1%
NE
1.5%
KS
0.1%
IA
1.5%
MO
0.5%
AR
1.9%
LA
-0.8%
WI
0.9%
IL
0.8%IN
1.5%
OH
1.5%
FL
3.3%
TN 3.4%
KY1.4%
MS
1.3%
AL
0.8%
GA
2.8%
SC
2.2%
NC 2.5%
VA
2.3%
WV
-1.6%
PA
0.6%
NY
1.3%
ME
0.8%
AK
-0.5%
HI
1.8%
MA
1.4%
VT
1.2%
NH
1.2%
RI
0.7%
CT
0.6%
NJ
1.8%
DE
2.8%
MD
1.7%
MI
2.1%
DC
1.3%
Loss
1.9% to 2.7%
2.8% or more (above the U.S. rate)
1.0% to 1.5%
0.0% to 0.9%
Idaho Employment GrowthHighest in the Nation
Percent Change in Employment for States: Jan 2015 to Jan 2016U.S. Rate = 1.9%
Note: Seasonally Adjusted
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
NM
0.2%
UT
3.0%
AZ
2.9%
CA
2.8%
NV
2.7%
OR
3.4%
TX
1.6%
OK
-0.6%
CO
2.7%
WA
3.0%
ID
3.9%
MT
0.9%
WY
-3.0%
ND
-4.5%
SD
1.1%
MN
1.1%
NE
1.5%
KS
0.1%
IA
1.5%
MO
0.5%
AR
1.9%
LA
-0.8%
WI
0.9%
IL
0.8%IN
1.5%
OH
1.5%
FL
3.3%
TN 3.4%
KY1.4%
MS
1.3%
AL
0.8%
GA
2.8%
SC
2.2%
NC 2.5%
VA
2.3%
WV
-1.6%
PA
0.6%
NY
1.3%
ME
0.8%
AK
-0.5%
HI
1.8%
MA
1.4%
VT
1.2%
NH
1.2%
RI
0.7%
CT
0.6%
NJ
1.8%
DE
2.8%
MD
1.7%
MI
2.1%
DC
1.3%
Loss
1.9% to 2.7%
2.8% or more (above the U.S. rate)
1.0% to 1.5%
0.0% to 0.9%
Oregon Employment Growth2nd Highest in Nation
Idaho Employment at New Highs
400
500
600
700
8001
99
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
Th
ou
sa
nd
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es
Total Nonfarm Employment
Loss of 59,000 jobs from
2007 - 2010
Gain of 92,000 jobs since low
in 2010
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Total nonfarm seasonally adjusted
Note: Numbers rounded to nearest thousand
Oregon Employment at New Highs
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
19001
99
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
Th
ou
sa
nd
s o
f E
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es
Total Nonfarm Employment
Loss of 147,000 jobs from
2008 - 2010
Gain of 223,000 jobs since low
in 2010
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Total nonfarm seasonally adjusted
Note: Numbers rounded to nearest thousand
Idaho Employment Gains and Losses
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Idaho Department of Labor, Total Nonfarm Seasonally Adjusted
Percent Change in Idaho Employment by Industry: Jan 2015 – Jan 2016
Total: 3.9%
2.5%
4.3%
7.3%
5.5%
3.3%
3.9%
-1.1%
3.5%
3.1%
5.1%
-7.9%
-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
Government
Other Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Ed. & Health Serv.
Prof. & Bus. Serv.
Financial Activity
Information
Trade, Trans., Utilities
Manufacturing
Construction
Ntl. Res. & Mining
Idaho Industries Seeing GrowthTotal Change in Idaho Employment by Industry: Jan 2015 – Jan 2016
Total: 26,200
3,000
1,000
4,900
5,200
2,700
1,300
-100
4,700
1,900
1,900
-300
-1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
Government
Other Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Ed. & Health Serv.
Prof. & Bus. Serv.
Financial Activity
Information
Trade, Trans., Utilities
Manufacturing
Construction
Ntl. Res. & Mining
Source: Idaho Department of Labor, Total Nonfarm Seasonally Adjusted
Oregon Employment Gains and Losses
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Idaho Department of Labor, Total Nonfarm Seasonally Adjusted
Percent Change in Idaho Employment by Industry: Jan 2015 – Jan 2016
Total: 3.4%
2.1%
3.5%
4.6%
4.6%
4.9%
3.3%
7.8%
1.3%
3.2%
5.0%
0.0%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9%
Government
Other Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Ed. & Health Serv.
Prof. & Bus. Serv.
Financial Activity
Information
Trade, Trans., Utilities
Manufacturing
Construction
Ntl. Res. & Mining
Oregon Industries Seeing GrowthTotal Change in Idaho Employment by Industry: Jan 2015 – Jan 2016
Total: 59,600
6,200
2,100
8,700
11,700
11,000
3,100
2,500
4,200
5,900
4,100
0
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000
Government
Other Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Ed. & Health Serv.
Prof. & Bus. Serv.
Financial Activity
Information
Trade, Trans., Utilities
Manufacturing
Construction
Ntl. Res. & Mining
Source: Idaho Department of Labor, Total Nonfarm Seasonally Adjusted
Idaho EmploymentChange Rates
By CountyDec 2014 toDec 2015
State Rate = 4.4%
Source: Idaho Department of Labor, Seasonally Adjusted Total Nonfarm Employment
2.0% to 4.3%
0.0% to 1.9%
10.0% or more
4.4% to 9.9%
Loss
Jefferson
9.9%
Jerome
12.3%
Idaho
-7.1%
Gooding
-7.4%
Gem
13.6%
Fremont
26.2%
Franklin
10.4%
Elmore
4.2%
Custer
-7.6%
Clearwater
1.4%
Washington
-2.6% Clark
-15.1%
Valley
6.5%
Cassia
1.2%
Twin Falls
4.2%
Caribou
-1.9%
Teton
8.5%Canyon
7.0%
Shoshone
-12.8%
Camas
20.9%
Power
19.9%
Butte
7.4%
Payette
9.0%
Boundary
15.1%
Owyhee
15.5%
Bonneville
3.7%
Bonner
-1.3%
Nez Perce
14.5%
Boise
-1.8%
Minidoka
4.9%
Blaine
-2.6%
Madison
20.9%
Bingham
-2.0%Lincoln
8.0%
Benewah
5.5%
Lewis
-5.0%
Bear Lake
-13.5%
Lemhi
0.4%
Bannock
22.0%
Latah
10.5%
Adams
-3.3%
Kootenai
5.5%
Ada
7.5%
Oneida
-8.9%
Wyoming Employment Still Not Fully Recovered from Recession Loss
200
220
240
260
280
300
3201
99
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
Th
ou
sa
nd
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es
Total Nonfarm Employment
Loss of 20,000 jobs from
2008-2009
Gain of 7,000 jobs from low
in 2009
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Total nonfarm seasonally adjusted
Note: Numbers rounded to nearest thousand
WY Industries - Employment GainsPercent Change in Wyoming Employment by Industry: January 2015 to January 2016
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Note: Seasonally Adjusted
1.3%
-2.9%
-3.6%
2.6%
-1.6%
-3.5%
-2.6%
-1.6%
-3.0%
-5.1%
-20.2%
-25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5%
Government
Other Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Ed. & Health Serv.
Prof. & Bus. Serv.
Financial Activity
Information
Trade, Trans., Utilities
Manufacturing
Construction
Ntl. Res. & Mining
Total: -3.0%
WY Industries Seeing GrowthTotal Change in Wyoming Employment by Industry: January 2015 to January 2016
Total: -8,700
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Note: Seasonally Adjusted
900
-300
-1,300
700
-300
-400
-100
-900
-300
-1,200
-5,500
-6,000 -5,000 -4,000 -3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000
Government
Other Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Ed. & Health Serv.
Prof. & Bus. Serv.
Financial Activity
Information
Trade, Trans., Utilities
Manufacturing
Construction
Ntl. Res. & Mining
WyomingEmploymentChange Rates
By CountyJanuary 2015 toJanuary 2016
State Rate = -2.8%
1.0% to 1.9%
0.0 to 0.9%
3.0% or more
Source: Wyoming Department of Workforce Services
Note: Not seasonally adjusted
2.0% to 2.9%
Loss
Teton0.7%
Park0.1%
Hot Springs-3.1%
Fremont-3.0%
Sublette-8.1%
Lincoln-0.4%
Uinta-7.4%
Sweetwater-5.8%
Big Horn-2.4%
Sheridan-0.8%
Campbell-6.8%
Crook-2.6%
Washakie-1.2%
Johnson-5.1% Weston
-2.3%
Niobrara-4.3%
Converse-3.6%Natrona
-7.8%
Carbon5.8% Albany
3.7%
Platte1.5%
Goshen0.2%
Laramie-0.7%
Idaho Among the Lowest Unemployment Rates in the Country
January 2016 U.S. Rate = 4.9% NH
2.9%
NM
6.5%
UT
3.4%
AZ
5.6%
CA
5.7%
NV
6.2%
OR
5.1%
TX
4.5%
OK
4.1%
CO
3.2%
WA
5.8%
ID
3.9%
MT
4.1%
WY
4.7%
ND
2.8%
SD
2.8%
MN
3.7%
NE
3.0%
KS
4.0%
IA
3.5%
MO
4.3%
AR
4.4%
LA
5.9%
WI
4.6%
IL
6.3%IN
4.6%
OH
4.9%
FL
5.0%
TN 5.4%
KY5.8%
MS
6.7%AL
6.2%
GA
5.4%
SC
5.5%
NC 5.6%
VA
4.1%
WV
6.3%
PA
4.6%
NY
4.9%
ME
3.8%
AK
6.6%
HI
3.2%
MA
4.7%
VT
3.4%
RI
5.3%
CT
5.5%
NJ
4.5%
DE
4.7%
MD
4.9%
MI
4.9%
DC
6.5%
6.0% or more
4.0% to 4.7%
4.9% to 5.5% (at or above the U.S. rate)
3.9% or less
5.6% to 5.9%
Note: Seasonally Adjusted
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Oregon Unemployment Slightly Higher than Nation
January 2016 U.S. Rate = 4.9% NH
2.9%
NM
6.5%
UT
3.4%
AZ
5.6%
CA
5.7%
NV
6.2%
OR
5.1%
TX
4.5%
OK
4.1%
CO
3.2%
WA
5.8%
ID
3.9%
MT
4.1%
WY
4.7%
ND
2.8%
SD
2.8%
MN
3.7%
NE
3.0%
KS
4.0%
IA
3.5%
MO
4.3%
AR
4.4%
LA
5.9%
WI
4.6%
IL
6.3%IN
4.6%
OH
4.9%
FL
5.0%
TN 5.4%
KY5.8%
MS
6.7%AL
6.2%
GA
5.4%
SC
5.5%
NC 5.6%
VA
4.1%
WV
6.3%
PA
4.6%
NY
4.9%
ME
3.8%
AK
6.6%
HI
3.2%
MA
4.7%
VT
3.4%
RI
5.3%
CT
5.5%
NJ
4.5%
DE
4.7%
MD
4.9%
MI
4.9%
DC
6.5%
6.0% or more
4.0% to 4.7%
4.9% to 5.5% (at or above the U.S. rate)
3.9% or less
5.6% to 5.9%
Note: Seasonally Adjusted
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Idaho vs. U.S.Unemployment Rates
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
U.S. Idaho
Oregon vs. U.S.Unemployment Rates
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
U.S. Oregon
Idaho Unemployment
RatesBy County
December 2015
State Rate = 3.9%
4.0% to 4.9%
5.0% to 5.9%
3.4% or lower
3.5% to 3.9%
6.0% or greater
Source: Idaho Department of Labor
Jerome
3.3%
Jefferson
3.1%
Idaho
5.2%
Gooding
3.2%
Gem
4.7%
Fremont
3.7%
Franklin
4.4%
Elmore
4.5%
Custer
5.4%
Clearwater
8.4%
Washington
5.4% Clark
4.0%
Valley
5.7%
Cassia
3.4%
Twin Falls
3.5%
Caribou
5.4%
Teton
3.4%Canyon
4.7%
Shoshone
8.5%
Camas
4.8%
Power
3.9%
Butte
4.9%
Payette
4.9%
Boundary
6.0%
Owyhee
5.0%
Bonneville
3.2%
Bonner
5.9%
Nez Perce
3.3%
Boise
5.9%
Minidoka
3.4%
Blaine
3.3%
Madison
2.6%
Bingham
4.0%Lincoln
5.1%
Benewah
6.8%
Lewis
6.4%
Bear Lake
5.8%
Lemhi
5.9%
Bannock
3.6%
Latah
3.6%
Adams
7.8%
Kootenai
4.8%
Ada
3.2%
Oneida
4.2%
Idaho Personal Income Growth Slightly Lower than Nation
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Percent Change in Personal Income : Q3 2014 – Q3 2015U.S. = 4.6%; ID = 4.2% NH
4.9%
NM
3.3%
UT
6.3%
AZ
5.2%
CA
6.5%
NV
5.9%
OR
5.7%
TX
3.9%
OK
2.0%
CO
5.3%
WA
5.9%
ID
4.2%
MT
4.6%
WY
1.4%
ND
-2.4%
SD
1.4%
MN
3.7%
NE
2.8%
KS
3.6%
IA
1.3%
MO
3.6%
AR
4.5%
LA
2.6%
WI
3.7%
IL
4.0%IN
4.6%
OH
3.5%
FL
5.4%
TN 4.9%
KY5.0%
MS
3.3%AL
3.9%
GA
5.2%
SC
5.1%
NC 5.3%
VA
4.6%
WV
2.3%
PA
3.6%
NY
4.6%
ME
3.9%
AK
4.7%
HI
4.8%
MA
5.2%
VT
3.0%
RI
4.6%
CT
4.1%
NJ
4.4%
DE
4.5%
MD
4.4%
MI
4.6%
DC
4.8%
4.6% to 4.9% (at or above the U.S. rate)
3.0% to 4.5%
5.0% or more
0.0% to 2.9%
Decrease
Oregon Personal Income Growth 5th Highest in Nation
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Percent Change in Personal Income : Q3 2014 – Q3 2015U.S. = 4.6%; WY = 1.4% NH
4.9%
NM
3.3%
UT
6.3%
AZ
5.2%
CA
6.5%
NV
5.9%
OR
5.7%
TX
3.9%
OK
2.0%
CO
5.3%
WA
5.9%
ID
4.2%
MT
4.6%
WY
1.4%
ND
-2.4%
SD
1.4%
MN
3.7%
NE
2.8%
KS
3.6%
IA
1.3%
MO
3.6%
AR
4.5%
LA
2.6%
WI
3.7%
IL
4.0%IN
4.6%
OH
3.5%
FL
5.4%
TN 4.9%
KY5.0%
MS
3.3%AL
3.9%
GA
5.2%
SC
5.1%
NC 5.3%
VA
4.6%
WV
2.3%
PA
3.6%
NY
4.6%
ME
3.9%
AK
4.7%
HI
4.8%
MA
5.2%
VT
3.0%
RI
4.6%
CT
4.1%
NJ
4.4%
DE
4.5%
MD
4.4%
MI
4.6%
DC
4.8%
4.6% to 4.9% (at or above the U.S. rate)
3.0% to 4.5%
5.0% or more
0.0% to 2.9%
Decrease
Idaho Median Household Income Slightly Below National Rate
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 Current Population Survey
2014 U.S. Rate = $53,657, 2014 Idaho Rate = $53,438
NM
$46,686
UT
$63,383
AZ
$49,254
CA
$60,487
NV
$49,875
OR
$58,875
TX
$53,875
OK
$47,199
CO
$60,940
WA
$59,068
ID
$53,438
MT
$51,102
WY
$55,690
ND
$60,730
SD
$53,053
MN
$67,244
NE
$56,870
KS
$53,444
IA
$57,810
MO
$56,630
AR
$44,922
LA
$42,406
WI
$58,080
IL
$54,916IN
$48,060
OH
$49,644
FL
$46,140
TN
$43,716
KY$42,786
MS
$35,521AL
$42,278
GA
$49,555
SC
$44,929
NC
$46,784
VA
$66,155
WV
$39,552
PA
$55,173
NY
$54,310
AK
$67,629
HI
$71,223
MA
$63,151VT
$60,708
NH
$73,397
RI
$58,633CT
$70,161
NJ
$65,243DE
$57,522
MD
$76,165
MI
$52,005
DC
$68,277
$53,658 to $59,999
$50,000 to $53,657 (at or below the U.S. Rate)
$60,000 or more
$40,000 to $49,999
$39,999 or less
ME
$51,710
Oregon Median Household Income Higher than National Rate
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 Current Population Survey
2014 U.S. Rate = $53,657, 2014 Oregon Rate = $58,875
NM
$46,686
UT
$63,383
AZ
$49,254
CA
$60,487
NV
$49,875
OR
$58,875
TX
$53,875
OK
$47,199
CO
$60,940
WA
$59,068
ID
$53,438
MT
$51,102
WY
$55,690
ND
$60,730
SD
$53,053
MN
$67,244
NE
$56,870
KS
$53,444
IA
$57,810
MO
$56,630
AR
$44,922
LA
$42,406
WI
$58,080
IL
$54,916IN
$48,060
OH
$49,644
FL
$46,140
TN
$43,716
KY$42,786
MS
$35,521AL
$42,278
GA
$49,555
SC
$44,929
NC
$46,784
VA
$66,155
WV
$39,552
PA
$55,173
NY
$54,310
AK
$67,629
HI
$71,223
MA
$63,151VT
$60,708
NH
$73,397
RI
$58,633CT
$70,161
NJ
$65,243DE
$57,522
MD
$76,165
MI
$52,005
DC
$68,277
$53,658 to $59,999
$50,000 to $53,657 (at or below the U.S. Rate)
$60,000 or more
$40,000 to $49,999
$39,999 or less
ME
$51,710
Consumer Price Index Wasatch Front vs. United States
Year Over Year Change
Source: U.S. CPI from National Bureau of Labor Statistics and Wasatch Front CPI from Cicero Group
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
Au
g 2
01
1
Dec
20
11
Ap
r 2
01
2
Au
g 2
01
2
Dec
20
12
Ap
r 2
01
3
Au
g 2
01
3
Dec
20
13
Ap
r 2
01
4
Au
g 2
01
4
Dec
20
14
Ap
r 2
01
5
Au
g 2
01
5
Dec
20
15
United States CPI
Zions Bank Wasatch Front CPI
US Consumer Confidence Index vs. UT Consumer Attitude Index
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
120.0
Ap
r 2
01
2
Ju
l 2
012
Oct
20
12
Jan
201
3
Ap
r 2
01
3
Ju
l 2
013
Oct
20
13
Jan
201
4
Ap
r 2
01
4
Ju
l 2
014
Oct
20
14
Jan
201
5
Ap
r 2
01
5
Ju
l 2
015
Oct
20
15
Jan
201
6
Zions Bank Utah Consumer
Attitude Index
United States Consumer
Confidence Index
Source: U.S. CCI from The Conference Board and Utah CAI from Cicero Group
Above 110 indicates economic prosperity
Idaho Poverty Rate Lower than National Average
2014 U.S. Rate = 14.8%, 2014 Idaho Rate = 12.4%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 CPS data
NM
20.0%
UT
10.2%
AZ
21.2%
CA
15.8%
NV
17.0%
OR
14.4%
TX
16.4%
OK
17.3%
CO
12.3%
WA
12.0%
ID
12.4%
MT
12.0%
WY
9.7%
ND
9.7%
SD
12.8%
MN
8.3%
NE
11.8%
KS
12.1%
IA
10.3%
MO
10.4%
AR
18.4%
LA
23.1%
WI
10.9%
IL
13.7%IN
14.6%
OH
15.6%
FL
16.7%
TN 18.2%
KY20.0%
MS
22.1%
AL
17.8%
GA
16.8%
SC
16.5%
NC 17.1%
VA
10.2%
WV
17.3%
PA
12.5%
NY
14.0%
ME
13.5%
AK
11.9%
HI
10.8%
MA
14.6%
VT
9.3%
NH
7.2%
RI
1.3%
CT
8.6%
NJ
11.3%
DE
11.0%
MD
9.8%
MI
14.8%
DC
19.0%
10.6% to 12.0%
12.1% to 14.4%
10.5% or less
14.5% to 18.0% (at or above the U.S. rate)
18.1% or more
Oregon Poverty Rate Slightly Lower than Nation
2014 U.S. Rate = 14.8%, 2014 Oregon Rate = 14.4%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 CPS data
NM
20.0%
UT
10.2%
AZ
21.2%
CA
15.8%
NV
17.0%
OR
14.4%
TX
16.4%
OK
17.3%
CO
12.3%
WA
12.0%
ID
12.4%
MT
12.0%
WY
9.7%
ND
9.7%
SD
12.8%
MN
8.3%
NE
11.8%
KS
12.1%
IA
10.3%
MO
10.4%
AR
18.4%
LA
23.1%
WI
10.9%
IL
13.7%IN
14.6%
OH
15.6%
FL
16.7%
TN 18.2%
KY20.0%
MS
22.1%
AL
17.8%
GA
16.8%
SC
16.5%
NC 17.1%
VA
10.2%
WV
17.3%
PA
12.5%
NY
14.0%
ME
13.5%
AK
11.9%
HI
10.8%
MA
14.6%
VT
9.3%
NH
7.2%
RI
1.3%
CT
8.6%
NJ
11.3%
DE
11.0%
MD
9.8%
MI
14.8%
DC
19.0%
10.6% to 12.0%
12.1% to 14.4%
10.5% or less
14.5% to 18.0% (at or above the U.S. rate)
18.1% or more
Malheur County Economic Conditions
Sources: U.S Census Bureau and Oregon Employment Department Qualityinfo.org
• 2014 Population: 30,359
• 2010-2014 Household Size: 2.64
• Jan 2016 Unemployment Rate: 5.7%(Rank: 17 of 37)
• Jan 2016 Total Employment: 11,582(Year-Over-Year Growth: 3.0%)
• 2010-2014 Median Household Income: $34,380
Idaho Economic Indicators2015 - 2017
Source: Moody’s Analytics e = estimate f = forecast
4.3
3
8.2
3.8
2.3
1.2
5.4
3.5
7.3
3.8
2.0
1.3
3.8
6.1
3.8
4
3.1
1.4
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Gross State Product
Home Prices
Personal Income
Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Employment
Population
2015e 2016f 2017f
Robert Spendlove
Economic and Public Policy Officer
Email:
Phone: 801-560-5394
Zions Bank, A Division of ZB, N.A. Member FDIC.
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