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Western CapeGovernment
Agriculture
THE WESTERN CAPE AND AFRICA IN NUMBERS: AN AGRIBUSINESS OPPORTUNITY
PERSPECTIVE
Dr Dirk TroskieDirector: Business Planning & Strategy
14 June 2012
Reality check: World
Reality check: Africa
Some features of Africa
Ranking
What others say
Conclusion
REALITY CHECK: WORLD
GLOBAL POPULATION GROWTH: 1950 - 2050
Source: UN Population (2008)
19
50
19
55
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
30
20
35
20
40
20
45
20
50
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
World Less Developed More Developed Least DevelopedYear
Worl
d P
op
ula
tion
(B
illion
)
Reg
ion
al P
op
ula
tion
(B
illion
)
GDP: $ Billion at PPP
Source: OECD (2010)
RANKING
1991 2008
COUNTRY GDP ($ Bill.) COUNTRYGDP ($
Bill.)
1United Stat
es5 943
United States
(1)14 369
2 Japan 2 485 China (6) 7 927
3 Germany 1 588 Japan (2) 4 358
4 France 1 051 India (9) 3 298
5 Italy 1 049 Germany (3) 2 910
6 China 1 029Russian Fed.
(-)2 263
7 UK 954 UK 2 186
8 Brazil 818 France (4) 2 122
9 India 763 Brazil (8) 1 985
10 Mexico 608 Italy (5) 1 872
11 Spain 550 Mexico (10) 1 545
12 Canada 549 Spain (11) 1 434
13 Korea 415 Korea 1 344
14 Turkey 337 Canada (12) 1 300
15 Indonesia 306 Turkey (14) 992
16 Australia 305 Indonesia (15) 910
17 Netherlands 280 Australia (16) 831
18 Poland 219Netherlands
(17)675
19 South Africa 204 Poland (18) 659
20 Belgium 196South Africa
(19)494
PER CAPITA GDP GROWTH: % at PPP
Source: OECD (2010)
RANKING1980 - 2008 1999 - 2008
COUNTRY % CHANGE COUNTRY % CHANGE
1 China 2 278 China 176
2 Korea 907 Estonia 136
3 India 598Slovak Repub
lic113
4 Ireland 569 India 103
5 Luxembourg 552 Norway 97
6 Norway 514 Indonesia 77
7 Indonesia 447 Korea 76
8 Turkey 384 Hungary 75
9 Spain 363 Luxembourg 73
10 Portugal 348 Poland 73
11 UK 325 Czech Rep. 72
12 Netherlands 316 Turkey 71
13 Finland 297 Greece 70
14 United States 288 Slovenia 68
15 OECD total 288 Chile 65
16 Japan 283 South Africa 62
17 Australia 1 280 Ireland 60
18 Denmark 269 Spain 59
19 Germany 262 Mexico 57
20 Austria 259 Brazil 53
........
32 South Africa 161
WORLD TRADE
Source: ITC (2012)
EXPORT GROWTH: Wine (1991 - 2010)
Source: SAWIS (2011)
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Export volume Export as % of harvestYear
Volu
me (
mil lit
res)
%
PROVINCIAL STRATEGIC OBJECITVE 11
Increasing opportunities for growth and development in rural areas
Agricultural production
Develop and implement a strategy that will support
10% agricultural
growth over 10 years.
Market access
Support the Agricultural Sector to at
least maintain its export
position for the next 5 years by
growing its value added
from R14,014 billion in 2009.
Research and Technology
Collaborate with farmers
and industries to execute
research and to develop cutting
edge technologies
where agricultural
production can increase by 10% over 10
years.
Rural develop-ment
Create an enabling
environment for business in rural areas and
the development of selected rural
nodes to facilitate their
socio-economic growth towards a sustainable
future.
Extension
Ensure that at least 60% of all
agricultural land reform
projects in the Province
succeed over the next 5
years..
SO WHAT?
• Structural change in demand for agricultural products.• Population• Ability to purchase
• “Financial crisis” should actually be no surprise.
• World trade patterns are changing.• Trade is important for the Western Cape
Agricultural Sector.• Should we follow the herd?
REALITY CHECK: AFRICA
OUR WORLDVIEW?
Source: NASA (2000)
SSA ECONOMIC GROWTH
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,100
2,200
2,300
2,400
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
3,000
GDP ($) GDP / Capita
GD
P (
$ B
illion
)
GD
P/C
ap
(I$
)
Source: WEF of IMF (2011)
GDP GROWTH (2011 – 16)(Economy % bigger by 2016)
Eri
tre
a
Ke
nya
Za
mb
ia
Mo
za
mb
iqu
e
Sie
rra
Leo
ne
Nig
er
Bu
run
di
Lib
eri
a
DR
C
Rw
an
da
Eg
yp
t
CA
R
Ma
law
i
Bu
kin
a F
aso
Ma
uri
tiu
s
Se
ne
ga
l
Co
ng
o
Ca
me
roo
n
Na
mib
ia
Ma
uri
tan
ia
To
go
Co
mo
ros
Ga
bo
n
So
uth
Afr
ica
Mo
rocco
Sw
azil
an
d
So
ma
lia
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Source: Database of WEF/IMF (2011)
GDP / CAP (2011) ($)
Source: Database of WEF/IMF (2011)
Lib
ya
Se
ych
ell
es
Bo
tsw
an
a
So
uth
Afr
ica
An
go
la
Tu
nis
ia
Ca
pe
Ve
rde
Co
ng
o
Su
da
n
Dji
bo
uti
Za
mb
ia
Sã
o T
om
é &
P
Cô
te d
'Ivo
ire
Lesoth
o
Co
mo
ros
Ma
li
Ga
mb
ia
Zim
ba
bw
e
Ta
nza
nia
Ug
an
da
To
go
CA
R
Ma
da
ga
scar
Eth
op
ia
Ma
law
i
DR
C
So
ma
lia
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION (2009)(2000 $ Million)
Nig
eri
a
So
uth
Afr
ica
Su
da
n
Gh
an
a
Alg
eri
a
Cô
te d
'Ivo
ire
DR
C
Ca
me
roo
n
Ma
li
Ma
da
ga
scar
Bu
kin
a F
aso
Rw
an
da
Be
nin
So
ma
lia
Ch
ad
Lib
ya
Bu
run
di
Sie
rra
Leo
ne
Na
mib
ia
Co
ng
o
G-B
issa
u
Eri
tre
a
Bo
tsw
an
a
Lesoth
o
Co
mo
ros
Eq
Gu
ine
a
Se
ych
ell
es
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Source: FAOSTAT (2011)
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION (1992)(2000 $ Million)
Nig
eri
a
So
uth
Afr
ica
Eth
op
ia
Ug
an
da
Ke
nya
Ta
nza
nia
Gh
an
a
Ma
da
ga
scar
Rw
an
da
Zim
ba
bw
e
Nig
er
Gu
ine
a
Ma
law
i
Bu
run
di
An
go
la
Lib
ya
CA
R
Sie
rra
Leo
ne
Ma
uri
tan
ia
Ga
bo
n
Bo
tsw
an
a
Lib
eri
a
Lesoth
o
Co
mo
ros
Eq
Gu
ine
a
Sã
o T
om
é &
P
Eri
tre
a
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Source: FAOSTAT (2011)
PRODUCTION GROWTH (1990/94 – 2005/09)
An
go
la
Ma
law
i
Mo
za
mb
iqu
e
Eg
yp
t
Nig
eri
a
Be
nin
Alg
eri
a
Gu
ine
a
Sã
o T
om
é &
P
G-B
issa
u
Ca
pe
Ve
rde
CA
R
Ca
me
roo
n
Dji
bo
uti
Ke
nya
Mo
rocco
Eri
tre
a
Se
ne
ga
l
Ma
uri
tan
ia
So
uth
Afr
ica
So
ma
lia
Ga
bo
n
Sw
azil
an
d
Lesoth
o
Eq
Gu
ine
a
Zim
ba
bw
e
Se
ych
ell
es
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Source: Calculated from FAOSTAT (2011)
AFRICAN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
Value of Production Per Capita Index
$ B
illion
(1
99
9-2
00
1 V
alu
es)
Ind
ex (
19
99
-20
01
= 1
00
)
Source: FAOSTAT (2011)
EFFICIENCY GAINS IN FOOD PRODUCTION
Source: Alain de Janvry (2009)
SO WHAT?
• We need to challenge our traditional world view• Some economies in Africa will double in
size during the next 5 years.• Africa has some individuals with
significant purchasing power.• Do not underestimate Africa’s
agricultural production• Our agricultural technology may make a
difference
SOME FEATURES OF AFRICA
INDEX: GOVERNANCE (Index: -2,5 – 2,5)M
au
riti
us
Ca
pe
Ve
rde
So
uth
Afr
ica
Gh
an
a
Lesoth
o
Se
ne
ga
l
Ta
nza
nia
Za
mb
ia
Sã
o T
om
é &
P
Ma
law
i
Rw
an
da
Sw
azil
an
d
Ug
an
da
Dji
bo
uti
Nig
er
Sie
rra
Leo
ne
Ma
uri
tan
ia
Eth
op
ia
An
go
la
Nig
eri
a
Co
mo
ros
Eq
Gu
ine
a
Cô
te d
'Ivo
ire
Gu
ine
a
Su
da
n
DR
C
Lib
ya
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
Source: IFAD (2011)
INFRASTRUCTURE (2009) (Index 1 – 5)S
ou
th A
fric
a
Ma
da
ga
scar
Gh
an
a
Be
nin
Cô
te d
'Ivo
ire
Mo
rocco
Ma
uri
tiu
s
DR
C
Ma
uri
tan
ia
Lib
ya
Ke
nya
Gu
ine
a
Ga
bo
n
Alg
eri
a
Ma
li
Ta
nza
nia
Lib
eri
a
Zim
ba
bw
e
To
go
Eth
op
ia
Na
mib
ia
Rw
an
da
Sie
rra
Leo
ne
So
ma
lia
Se
ych
ell
es
Ca
pe
Ve
rde
Eq
Gu
ine
a
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Source: World Development Indicators (2011)
AGRICULTURAL LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY:(% Growth 1998 – 2008)
Source: IFAD (2011))
So
uth
Afr
ica
Tu
nis
ia
Ca
me
roo
n
Eg
yp
t
Cô
te d
'Ivo
ire
Gu
ine
a
Alg
eri
a
Ma
li
CA
R
Ta
nza
nia
Sw
azil
an
d
To
go
Mo
rocco
Co
mo
ros
Ga
mb
ia
Se
ne
ga
l
Ca
pe
Ve
rde
Nig
er
Zim
ba
bw
e
DR
C
Bo
tsw
an
a
Bu
run
di
Eth
op
ia
So
ma
lia
Sie
rra
Leo
ne
Co
ng
o
Lib
ya
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
AGRICULTURAL IMPORT GROWTH (1987 - 2006) (%)
Zim
ba
bw
e
Sw
azil
an
d
Na
mib
ia
Ga
mb
ia
Gh
an
a
Ca
pe
Ve
rde
Gu
ine
a
G-B
issa
u
Sã
o T
om
é &
P
Se
ne
ga
l
Ke
nya
Ma
uri
tan
ia
Nig
er
Nig
eri
a
Bu
run
di
So
uth
Afr
ica
Ug
an
da
CA
R
Su
da
n
Ma
li
Ch
ad
Rw
an
da
Ma
law
i
Eri
tre
a
Lib
eri
a
Co
ng
o
Za
mb
ia
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Source: Calculated from FAOSTAT (2011)
RENEWABLE WATER / CAPITA (m3/Cap/year)
Co
ng
o
Lib
eri
a
CA
R
Gu
ine
a
G-B
issa
u
Ca
me
roo
n
Mo
za
mb
iqu
e
Na
mib
ia
Ma
li
Ga
mb
ia
Ch
ad
Ma
uri
tan
ia
Be
nin
Nig
er
To
go
Ma
uri
tiu
s
Nig
eri
a
Su
da
n
Eth
op
ia
Co
mo
ros
Ma
law
i
Rw
an
da
Bu
kin
a F
aso
Eg
yp
t
Tu
nis
ia
Alg
eri
a
Se
ych
ell
es
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Source: AQUASTAT (2011)
PRESSURE ON RENEWABLE WATER (% of renewable water used by Agriculture)
Source: AQUASTAT (2011)
Co
ng
o
Eq
Gu
ine
a
Lib
eri
a
An
go
la
Sie
rra
Leo
ne
Ga
mb
ia
Ca
me
roo
n
Co
mo
ros
G-B
issa
u
Gu
ine
a
Cô
te d
'Ivo
ire
Rw
an
da
Gh
an
a
Bu
run
di
Ma
da
ga
scar
Ma
law
i
Se
ne
ga
l
Ma
li
Ca
pe
Ve
rde
Eri
tre
a
So
uth
Afr
ica
Ma
uri
tiu
s
So
ma
lia
Mo
rocco
Su
da
n
Lib
ya
Se
ych
ell
es
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
SO WHAT?
• Doing business in Africa will present challenges:• Governance• Infrastructure
• Africa presents immense agricultural potential• Productivity gains• Land• Water
RANKING COUNTRIES
CATEGORIES
• Governance• Economy• Agriculture’s role in economy• Population• Trade• Agricultural Production• Agricultural Land• Water
RANKING
Source: Own calculations
Gh
an
a
Mo
rocco
Alg
eri
a
An
go
la
Ma
uri
tiu
s
Ta
nza
nia
Mo
za
mb
iqu
e
Be
nin
Nig
er
Ga
bo
n
Se
ne
ga
l
Bu
kin
a F
aso
Zim
ba
bw
e
Za
mb
ia
Eth
op
ia
CA
R
Sã
o T
om
é &
P
Ga
mb
ia
DR
C
Dji
bo
uti
Se
ych
ell
es
Lib
eri
a
Eq
Gu
ine
a
Co
mo
ros
Ma
uri
tan
ia
Eri
tre
a
Lib
ya
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
SO WHAT?
• Africa is a continent of 52 countries – choose carefully
WHAT OTHERS SAY
SOUTH AFRICAN RETAILERS
REGION COUNTRY
SHOPRITE / CHECKERS FRUIT &
VEGGAME
PICK & PAY
SPARShoprite U-Save
Southern Africa
Angola 3 5 +1 +?Botswana 5 ? 2+1 ? 23Lesotho 4 ? 1 ? 1Madagascar 8 ?Malawi 2 3 2Mozambique 5 ? 1+1 3 2Namibia 14 ? 3 2+1 ? 29Swaziland 6 2 ? 7Zimbabwe 1 ? 1 +1 25% 464 35% 68Zambia 19 ? 1+1 ?
East Africa
Mauritius 3 ? 2 1+1 2Reunion 1Tanzania 3 ? 1KenyaUganda 2 ? 1
North AfricaTunisiaMoroccoAlgeria
West Africa
Ghana 1 1 1+1MaliCot d’IvoureNigeria 3 ? 1
Central Africa
CameroonGabonCARDRC
THE REALITIES OF AFRICA
ADAPTING TO CHANGING WORLD ORDER: Exports of Apples & Pears
Source: ITC Database (2011)
UK33%
Netherl18%
Belgium7%Mal
aysia
5%
France4%
German
y4%
USA3%
An-gola3%
HK2%
Singapor2%
Benin
2%
Other17%
2001
UK23%
Netherl15%
Malaysia9%
Russia5%
UAE5%
Benin4%
Sin-gapor
3%
Ger-many
3%
An-gola2%
France
2%
Zim2%
Other27%
2010
SO WHAT?
• Africa presents new opportunities.
CONCLUSION
CONCLUSION
• “The world it is a-changing”
• “Look north young man”
• “Afrika is nie vir sissies nie”
Thank youDankieEnkosi
SOME NATIONAL INITIATIVES
REGION COUNTRYDAFF
ReportsSPEAR
JADAFA / BFAP BFAP BaselineOld New
Southern Africa
Angola X XMozambique X X XNamibiaZimbabwe?
East AfricaMauritiusTanzania X XKenya X
North AfricaTunisiaMoroccoAlgeria
West Africa
GhanaMaliCot d’IvoureNigeria (?)
Central Africa
CameroonGabonCARDRC (?)
Others
Botswana XEgypt XEthiopia XSudan XUganda X XMalawi X XZambia X X X
OTHER PROVINCIAL DEPARTMENTS
REGION COUNTRYWESGRO DEDAT
ReportWest Africa
axisAir access
Southern Africa
Angola X X XMozambiqueNamibia XZimbabwe (?)
East AfricaMauritiusTanzaniaKenya X
North AfricaTunisiaMoroccoAlgeria
West Africa
Ghana X X XMaliCot d’Ivoure X XNigeria (?) X X
Central Africa
Cameroon X XGabon X XCARDRC (?) X X
Others Senegal X X
TOP THREE IN EACH REGION
• Southern Africa• South Africa• Angola• Mozambique• Namibia• Zimbabwe (?)
• East Africa• Mauritius• Tanzania• Kenya
TOP THREE IN EACH REGION
• North Africa• Tunisia• Morocco• Algeria
• West Africa• Ghana• Mali• Cote d’Ivoure• Nigeria (?)
TOP THREE IN EACH REGION
• Central Africa
• Cameroon
• Gabon
• Central African Republic
• DRC (?)
AGRIC PRODUCTION PER CAPITA INDEX (2007 – 2009)(1999 – 2001 = 100)
Sie
rra
Leo
ne
Nig
er
Alg
eri
a
Gh
an
a
Eth
op
ia
Eg
yp
t
Tu
nis
ia
Za
mb
ia
Nig
eri
a
So
uth
Afr
ica
Bu
kin
a F
aso
Bo
tsw
an
a
Sw
azil
an
d
Su
da
n
Sã
o T
om
é &
P
Ca
me
roo
n
Co
mo
ros
Eri
tre
a
Ma
da
ga
scar
Se
ne
ga
l
Ch
ad
Na
mib
ia
So
ma
lia
Ug
an
da
Ga
mb
ia
Eq
Gu
ine
a
Se
ych
ell
es
50
70
90
110
130
150
Source: Calculated from FAOSTAT (2011)
INEQUALITY: Gini Index (Latest year)E
thop
ia
Bu
run
di
To
go
G-B
issa
u
Lib
eri
a
Ma
li
Ma
uri
tan
ia
Gu
ine
a
Ch
ad
Tu
nis
ia
Ga
bo
n
Sie
rra
Leo
ne
Nig
eri
a
Ug
an
da
Ca
me
roo
n
Ma
da
ga
scar
Co
ng
o
Zim
ba
bw
e
Sã
o T
om
é &
P
Za
mb
ia
Rw
an
da
An
go
la
Co
mo
ros
Na
mib
ia
Eri
tre
a
Ma
uri
tiu
s
Su
da
n
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Source: World Development Indicators