welcome and webinar logistics€¦ · 7/16/2020 · pine ecosystems: the context of landscape...

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Agenda

Perspectives on Prescribed Fire Management in Longleaf Pine Ecosystems: The Context of Landscape Transformation

and Anthropogenic Climate Change

John Kupfer

Kirstin DowJ. Kevin Hiers

Adam TerandoKirsten LackstromPeng Gao

South Carolina AppliedLandscape Ecology (SCALE) Lab

Background Methods Current Management Practices Future Constraints Conclusions

Conservation Adaptation Planning for Landscape and Climate Change in the Southeast

Vital Futures: SE CASC funded project for conservation adaptation planning


Bluffton, SC: 1994 and 2018

Landscape Transformation


Vision: A connected network of lands and waters that supports thriving fish and wildlife populations and improved quality of life for people


Anthropogenic Climate Change


Humans and Wildfires

https://wildfiretoday.com/2016/11/10/smoke-from-wildfires-impacts-georgia/

Images from the Nov. 2016 wildfire outbreak, which was driven by a sustained lack of precipitation as many areas had not received significant rain in weeks. It has been more than 70 days for some locations in Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina, Georgia, Mississippi, Alabama, and South Carolina.

The area burned in the U.S. by prescribed fires each year vastly exceeds that burned by wildfires (Melvin 2015), with managers in the Southeast conducting prescribed burns on more than 3 million ha annually.

Prescribed Burning in the US


Figure 19.19: (top) A helicopter drops water on a 1,500-hectare wildfire on Hurlburt Field (Eglin Air Force Base) in Florida in June of 2012. (bottom) The increased use of prescribed fire at Ft. Benning, Georgia, led to a decrease in wildfire occurrence from 1982 to 2012. Photo credit: Kevin Hiers, Tall Timbers. Figure source: adapted from Addington et al. 2015.4 Reprinted by permission of CSIRO Australia, ©CSIRO.

https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/19/#fn:4


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Eglin AFB Fire Area: 2008-2015

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Wildfire

Prescribed burning at Eglin AFNU.S. Air Force photos/Randy Gon

Prescribed Burning in the US

Background Methods Future Constraints ConclusionsCurrent Management Practices

Background Methods Future Constraints Conclusions

Shifting Burn Windows

Current Management Practices

Kupfer et al. (2020): “(T)he practical constraints of rising temperatures on prescribed fire activities represent a significant future challenge and show that even meeting basic burn criteria will become increasingly difficult over time, which speaks to the need for adaptive management strategies to prepare for such changes.”

Conservation Planning in the 21st Century


Adaptation strategies such as changing the timing of burns (either seasonally, weekly, or daily) or relaxing burn window criteria could result in maintaining opportunities, but not without their own set of tradeoffs and risks with respect to public health, personnel safety, biodiversity impacts, ecological restoration, and air quality objectives.

Longleaf Pine Ecosystems• Native to the Southeastern

Coastal Plain, a Global Biodiversity Hotspot

• Ecosystems are Diverse and Threatened

~5% of the original extent

remains


Elicit information on:1. criteria for prioritizing burn sites2. current burning practices and

constraints3. expectations for future

constraints, with an emphasis on perceptions related to urbanization and climate change

Study Objectives


• Implemented an online survey of longleaf pine fire managers throughout its historic range through Qualtrics

• Individual managers were invited to participate in the survey through the Southern Fire Exchange Newsletter, Drip Torch Digest, Apalachicola Regional Stewardship Alliance, and the Longleaf Alliance

• Asked for responses based on their primary management unit(s), not longleaf as a whole

Survey Methodology


Data Analysis• Received 317 responses• Descriptive statistics and preliminary analyses have

been completed, but work is still ongoing• Qualitative analyses to inform the quantitative

results– Qualitative coding being conducted using Nvivo– Two coders identifying themes


DemographicsFuture Constraints ConclusionsBackground

Management ResponsesOwned and managed by a government entity 117 55.5%

Owned and managed by an individual 49 23.2%

Owned and managed by a corporation 12 5.7%

Corporate or individual ownership but NGO managed (e.g., TNC)

8 5.2%

Other, please specify * 22 10.4%Total 211 100%Not given 106

Level ResponsesFederal 41 35.0%

State 65 55.6%

County 9 7.7%

City 2 1.7%

* Variety of answers (e.g, private consultants, multiple arrangements)

Methods Current Management Practices

Demographics

Future Constraints ConclusionsBackground

State ResponsesAlabama a 17 12.9%Mississippi a 10Florida 78 37.1%Georgia 29 13.8%Louisiana b 8 8.6%Texas b 10North Carolina c 24 13.3%Virginia c 4South Carolina 30 14.3%Total 210 100.0%Not given 107

Methods Current Management Practices

Prioritizing Sites Within a Management Unit

Criterion Rank (1) Rank (2) Rank (3)Length of time since the last burn 31.7% 20.2% 20.5%

Overall ecosystem health of the site 26.9% 19.9% 16.7%

Fuel reduction to reduce fire risk 10.6% 20.8% 14.4%

Presence of T&E species 9.6% 14.7% 13.1%

Presence of existing firebreaks / fire lines 4.5% 3.8% 8.0%

Distance to developed or residential land 4.5% 5.1% 5.1%

Presence of invasive plants 2.2% 5.4% 5.8%

Management of a site for timber 0.3% 1.0% 3.8%

Other Criteria 3.5% 1.6% 0.6%

Primary Factors: Ecology and Risk Management

Q1. For the characteristics listed below, please rank your top three criteria for determining whether a site has a high priority for burning.

Methods Current Management Situation Future Constraints ConclusionsBackground

Prioritizing Sites Within a Management Unit

Criterion Govt. Corp. Indiv.Length of time since the last burn 80.4% 77.8% 66.7%

Overall ecosystem health of the site 69.7% 72.2% 61.9%

Fuel reduction to reduce fire risk 47.1% 33.3% 54.0%

Presence of T&E species 52.9% 62.1% 11.1%

Presence of existing firebreaks / fire lines 17.6% 22.2% 14.3%

Distance to developed or residential land 13.4% 11.1% 17.5%

Presence of invasive plants 6.7% 11.1% 28.6%

Management of a site for timber 2.5% 5.6% 7.9%

Other criteria (e.g. hunting) 5.0% 5.6% 15.9%

Methods Current Management Situation Future Constraints ConclusionsBackground

1) Different colors represent significant differences within criterion (GzLM, binary logistic link model; Bonferroni corrected follow-up tests)

2) There were no significant differences among states

Q1. For the characteristics listed below, please rank your top three criteria for determining whether a site has a high priority for burning.

Burn FrequencyQ3: How often, on average, shouldlongleaf pine stands in your unit be burned?

Q4: In practice, how often, on average, have longleaf pine units in your area been burned over the past 10 years?

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Matches historic interval Specific needs (e.g., hunting,

hardwood control)

Constraints, Management objectives

Methods Current Management Practices Future Constraints ConclusionsBackground

Institutional Constraints to BurningMethods Current Management Practices Future Constraints ConclusionsBackground

Q6: Do the following factors pose constraints to prescribed burning at your unit(s)?

Less frequently cited constraint for commercially owned lands

Seasonal Constraints to Burning

J F M A M J J A S O N DDormant

Candling

Growing

Fall

Fire managers refer to various burn season that are based on physiological changes that occur in trees and plants throughout the year rather than discrete calendar months.

Q2: (W)e recognize that the specific dates of activities may vary over the full historic range of longleaf pine…. In thinking about your management unit over the last 10 years, on what dates do each of these four periods begin: dormant period, candling period, primary growing period, fall senescence period.


Dormant Season vs. Growing Season BurnsDormant season fires are often used when reclaiming longleaf stands that have not been burned in several years (e.g., to reduce fuels). They produce a cooler fire and less damage to longleaf seedling buds. Dormant season fires may top-kill undesirable hardwoods such as sweetgum and water oak, but they often resprout the following growing season.

Growing season fires are often used to control understory and midstory hardwoods without leading to re-sprouting. They are likely to be more intense and damaging to plants due to higher air temperatures and moisture conditions. In many areas, this also corresponds to the evolutionary fire season.

Bradley et al. (2018)


Seasonal Burning Constraints


Q7: Please indicate how often these factors constrain prescribed burning in your management unit during each period of longleaf pine phenology, using the following scores for your rankings:

Growing season more constrained by weather, fuel loads, and resource availability than dormant season. Air quality is a common constraint in both seasons.

Seasonal Burning Constraints


Q8: For weather conditions during the dormant season and growing season, please check the boxes for all factors which are common constraints on prescribed burning.

And, a Few Quotes1. “Due to the limited number of good burn days in the dormant season, I

am seeing more landowners switch to growing season burns.” (MS)2. “Capacity is the biggest problem. We are expanding the acres of

longleaf on the district but have lost firefighters that have not been replaced and therefore cannot take full advantage of our limited burn days.”

3. “We have been doing quite a bit of mechanical and chemical work to widen our burn windows (arranging fuels by mowing, or opening stands by herbicide). This has not always worked because if the area is not burned in the planned window, conditions may be worse when the site does finally get burned.”

4. “There are not enough burning days to get all our needs met within a 2-year rotation. There are too many units with narrow burn windows due to smoke direction and heavy fuels in the WUI to be able to get to them all under restrictions.”


Findings: Current Practices and Constraints1. Major factors affecting burn unit prioritization

varied little across managers and states2. Nearly 80% of managers reported burning less

frequently than stands in their units should be3. Institutional constraints: Proximity to

developed areas and risk avoidance (importance of future land use change)

4. Seasonal constraints: More constraints for the growing season, particularly driven by weather, drought, and low wind speeds. Restrictions in burn windows based on these variables are likely to remain or increase in the future (importance of climate change)


Methods Future Constraints ConclusionsBackground Current Management Practices

Q 15. Thirty years from now, which of these constraints do you think will be the most significant to the use of prescribed burning at your unit? Please select up to the top 5 constraints, starting with 1 as the greatest.

Future Constraints: General

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Limited institutional incentives

High fuel loads

Legal constraints / legislation

Shortage of resources

Public objections / concerns

Inappropriate weather conditions

Risk aversion

Nearby human development

Air quality issues

Q16: Overall, how do you expect the availability of future suitable burning opportunities to change in each period? (timeframe: next 30 years)


Greatly Reduced

Somewhat Reduced No Change Somewhat

IncreasedGreatly

Increased

Dormant Period 6.3% 37.6% 48.8% 5.4% 2.0%

Candling Period 9.0% 44.8% 37.3% 6.5% 2.5%

Growth Period 12.7% 40.7% 26.0% 15.7% 4.9%

Fall Period 7.7% 36.2% 44.4% 10.7% 1.0%

Future Constraints: General

44-54% 26-49% 7-21%

Future Constraints: Urbanization


Q13: To what extent do you think future urbanization patterns (e.g., changes in the wildland-urban interface, loss of habitat to restore longleaf pine ecosystems) will affect your prescribed burning decisions over the following timeframes?

1)“Not at all”: decreases substantially by 10-30 years out2)Significant shift from those who responded ‘a little’ or ‘moderately’ to ‘a great deal’.


Q12: To what extent do you think future climate change (e.g., increasing temperature, more intense rainstorms, and/or extreme weather events) will affect your prescribed burning decisions?

Future Constraints: Climate Change

1) “Not at all”: again decreases substantially by 10-30 years out2) Significant increase in those who responded ‘a great deal’3) Significant increase in the amount of uncertainty

And, a Few Quotes1. “The key is to get the fuels reduced as soon as possible before

urbanization and to keep these areas in a 2-3 fire return interval.”2. “Each new development of private property near our forest

boundary increases the difficulty of burning nearby.” (commercial forest manager)

3. “Urbanization itself is not the only issue, but acceptance of prescribed fire by those moving into the WUI is the bigger issue. People that have lived in dense, urban areas are moving into more rural areas and they don't understand fire and its benefits to the ecosystem and their homes.”

4. “Weather conditions and personnel work load often prohibit units from being burned on optimum scheduled years” – Issue: what if those windows become even less predictable.


And, a Few Quotes5. “If there is not some sort of liability reform and a greater understanding of

the actual economic benefit to the insurance industry of prescribed burning, well, that is a big deal…. The math needs to be done to show they lose less by supporting prescribed fire, which saves wildfire losses even though there will be individual prescribed fire losses.”


Simple negligence is a standard of liability under which a person is legally responsible for harm if reasonable care was not taken.Gross negligence is a standard of liability under which a person is legally responsible for harm only if less care than even a careless person would use—reckless disregard for safety—was proven.

Take Home Messages: The Future!Methods Future Constraints ConclusionsBackground Current Management Practices

1. Roughly half of fire managers expect reduced burn opportunities in the next 3 decades, especially in spring and summer

2. Urbanization will pose increasingly more constraints on burning (risk, air quality).

3. Climate change will also constrain burning, but with greater uncertainty farther into the future.

4. Question: Can managers shift their activities to meet the increasing challenged posed by development and changing fire weather?

• Role of other constraints• The effects of burning may not achieve

certain management goals. • Such shifts may also prevent managers

from burning as frequently as desired.

Thank you!

Contact meJohn Kupfer: [email protected]

Acknowledgments:• Ellie Davis, Casey Teske• Funding from the

Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center

• Support from the various groups that helped to publicize the survey and the many fire managers who took the time to respond

welcome and webinar logistics€¦ · 7/16/2020 · pine ecosystems: the context of landscape...

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