weekly_19122015

December 19, 2015

For Private Circulation Only | Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP00000154 6 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946

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TTTTTechnical Picks |echnical Picks |echnical Picks |echnical Picks |echnical Picks |

Trading for the week began on a soft note on Monday owing to

negative cues from the global bourses. However, the Nifty

managed to give a smart recovery from the morning's low. This

momentum continued for the next three trading sessions of the

week and in the process, the index tested the 78507850785078507850 mark. During

the week, the much expected rate hike by the US Fed finally got

through. On Friday, due to some profit booking, the Nifty

trimmed some of its intra-week gains and eventually concluded

the week slightly below the 78007800780078007800 mark. All sectoral indices

traded with a positive bias almost throughout the week, amongst

which the Metal, Consumer Durables and Oil & Gas stocks

were the major gainers. The Nifty ended the week with a modest

gain of 1.99% over its previous week's close.

Pattern formation: The '89-day EMA' and the '89-week EMA' for the Sensex/

Nifty are placed at 26321 / 7984 26321 / 7984 26321 / 7984 26321 / 7984 26321 / 7984 and 25973 / 7842 25973 / 7842 25973 / 7842 25973 / 7842 25973 / 7842 levels,

respectively.

The '20-day EMA' and the '20-week EMA' for the Sensex/

Nifty are placed at 25623 / 7986 25623 / 7986 25623 / 7986 25623 / 7986 25623 / 7986 and 26340 / 7989 26340 / 7989 26340 / 7989 26340 / 7989 26340 / 7989 levels,

respectively.

Future outlook

The concluded week was an eventful one, both globally as well

as on the domestic front. After falling more than 400 points

from the recent high of 7979.307979.307979.307979.307979.30, the Nifty gave a v-shaped

recovery towards the 78507850785078507850 mark. In our previous report, we

had mentioned about the strong support standing at the

September low of 7539.507539.507539.507539.507539.50. In-line with our expectation, the

Nifty's decline was arrested at the 7551.057551.057551.057551.057551.05 mark on Monday.

Also, the 'Two Points Positive Divergence' in the daily 'RSI'

momentum oscillator played its part as the Nifty surged nearly

300 points from the low in such a short span. The weekly chart

7540 acted as a sheet anchor - range bound action likely

Sensex (25519) / Nifty (7762)

now depicts a bullish 'Piercing Pattern' along with the positive

placement of momentum oscillators. Going forward, if the Nifty

manages to sustain above the 78007800780078007800 mark then we may witness

a continuation of this move towards 7970 - 8050 7970 - 8050 7970 - 8050 7970 - 8050 7970 - 8050 levels. On

the flipside, 7710 - 76207710 - 76207710 - 76207710 - 76207710 - 7620 are now seen as important support

levels. We believe that the index may remain range bound in

the forthcoming week and thus, due to lack of trade set up in

the index, it's advisable to focus on individual stocks. We continue

to recommend trading with a proper exit strategy and avoiding

undue risks.

Source: Falcon

Exhibit 1: Nifty Weekly chart

Source: Falcon

Exhibit 2: Nifty Daily chart

December 19, 2015


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TTTTTechnical Picks |echnical Picks |echnical Picks |echnical Picks |echnical Picks |

Technical Research Team

Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty 50 Stocks

SCRIPS

24,443 24,981 25,406 25,944 26,370

7,420 7,591 7,722 7,893 8,024

15,934 16,264 16,518 16,848 17,102

1,289 1,319 1,342 1,372 1,395

231 246 254 268 276

184 192 197 205 210

840 860 873 893 906

421 427 435 441 449

2,296 2,383 2,462 2,549 2,629

148 154 159 164 169

161 164 167 170 173

864 883 900 918 935

296 307 316 328 336

17,337 17,776 18,444 18,883 19,551

117 124 129 135 140

623 632 641 651 659

299 308 314 322 328

2,884 2,929 2,996 3,042 3,109

320 330 345 354 369

3,512 3,617 3,691 3,796 3,870

807 826 846 865 885

1,021 1,047 1,066 1,092 1,111

1,118 1,171 1,210 1,263 1,301

2,437 2,540 2,604 2,707 2,770

73 76 79 83 85

787 822 849 884 911

237 244 249 256 262

126 131 133 138 140

882 909 930 957 978

1,019 1,051 1,080 1,113 1,142

311 314 319 322 328

647 675 690 718 733

1,243 1,265 1,287 1,309 1,331

1,660 1,722 1,785 1,847 1,909

1,139 1,191 1,248 1,300 1,357

4,367 4,494 4,598 4,724 4,828

127 132 135 139 142

204 214 221 230 237

123 129 133 139 143

118 120 122 125 127

915 954 984 1,023 1,053

219 223 228 231 236

729 760 784 815 840

2,283 2,350 2,397 2,464 2,512

349 364 375 390 402

59 62 64 67 69

231 243 251 263 270

498 511 529 542 561

2,702 2,758 2,832 2,889 2,962

79 82 85 87 90

539 546 558 566 578

645 682 705 741 764

387 400 409 422 431

S2S2S2S2S2 S1 S1 S1 S1 S1 PIVPIVPIVPIVPIVOOOOOTTTTT R1R1R1R1R1 R2R2R2R2R2

SENSEX

NIFTY

NIFTY BANK

ACC

ADANIPORTS

AMBUJACEM

ASIANPAINT

AXISBANK

BAJAJ-AUTO

BANKBARODA

BHEL

BPCL

BHARTIARTL

BOSCH

CAIRN

CIPLA

COALINDIA

DRREDDY

GAIL

GRASIM

HCLTECH

HDFC

HDFCBANK

HEROMOTOCO

HINDALCO

HINDUNILVR

ICICIBANK

IDEA

INDUSINDBK

INFY

ITC

KOTAKBANK

LT

LUPIN

M&M

MARUTI

NTPC

ONGC

POWERGRID

PNB

RELIANCE

SBIN

SUNPHARMA

TCS

TATAMOTORS

TATAPOWER

TATASTEEL

TECHM

ULTRACEMCO

VEDL

WIPRO

YESBANK

ZEEL

December 19, 2015


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Derivatives Review |Derivatives Review |Derivatives Review |Derivatives Review |Derivatives Review |

Don't be in hurry to short this market

Nifty spot closed at 7761.957761.957761.957761.957761.95 this week against a close of 7610.457610.457610.457610.457610.45 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.76 to 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 levels

and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 10.18%10.18%10.18%10.18%10.18%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures decreased by 1.71%1.71%1.71%1.71%1.71%.

Put-Call Ratio Analysis Implied Volatility Analysis

PCR-OI has increased from 0.76 to 0.78 levels mainly due to

open interest addition in put options. In call options, 8000 strike

added some OI. While in put options, 7700 and 7800 strikes

added decent amount of buildup. Maximum buildup in current

series is seen in 8000 call & 7500 put options.

Implied Volatility (IV) for NIFTY has decreased from 15.63% to

12.57%. Historical volatility (HV) of NIFTY is at 15.91% and

that for BANKNIFTY is trading at 20.41%. Liquid counters having

very high HV are M&M, NMDC, DHFL, TATAPOWER and

TECHM. Stocks where HV are on lower side are CIPLA, GAIL,

BANKINDIA, DRREDDY and HAVELLS.

Nifty current month futures closed at a premium of 28.15 points

against a premium of 17.45 points to its spot. Next month

future is trading with premium of 60.55 points. Liquid counters

where CoC is high are HINDALCO, SBIN, VEDL, LUPIN and

M&M. Stocks with negative CoC are NMDC, TATASTEEL,

ICICIBANK, BHARTIARTL and TCS.

Total open interest of market has increased from

`2,26,596/- cr. to `2,41,019/- cr. Stock futures open interest

has decreased from `62,986/- cr. to `66,707/- cr. Liquid

counters names which added significant positions last week

are PNB, HINDUNILVR, WIPRO, VEDL and SBIN. On the other

hand unwinding was visible in counters like HDFCBANK,

ONGC, HEROMOTOCO, HINDALCO and INDUSINDBK.

Open Interest Analysis Cost-of-Carry Analysis

Derivative Strategy

BUY 500 RELIANCE 1000 DEC CE 12.00

SELL 1000 RELIANCE 1020 DEC CE 6.00

Scrip : RELIANCEScrip : RELIANCEScrip : RELIANCEScrip : RELIANCEScrip : RELIANCE CMP :CMP :CMP :CMP :CMP : ` ` ` ` `995.95995.95995.95995.95995.95 LLLLLot Size : 500ot Size : 500ot Size : 500ot Size : 500ot Size : 500 Exercise Date (F & O) : Exercise Date (F & O) : Exercise Date (F & O) : Exercise Date (F & O) : Exercise Date (F & O) : 31st Dec 2015

Expected PayoffView: Mildly Bullish

965

985

1005

1025

1045

1065

BEPBEPBEPBEPBEP ----- `̀̀̀̀1,040/-1,040/-1,040/-1,040/-1,040/-

Max. Risk:Max. Risk:Max. Risk:Max. Risk:Max. Risk: Unlimited Max. PMax. PMax. PMax. PMax. Profit:rofit:rofit:rofit:rofit: `10,000/-If RELIANCE continues to move above BEP. If RELIANCE closes at `1,020 level on expiry.

NONONONONOTETETETETE: : : : : Profit can be booked before expiry if RELIANCE moves in favorable direction and time value decays.

Strategy: Ratio Bull Call Spread

Buy/SellBuy/SellBuy/SellBuy/SellBuy/Sell QtyQtyQtyQtyQty ScripScripScripScripScrip StrikeStrikeStrikeStrikeStrike SeriesSeriesSeriesSeriesSeries OptionOptionOptionOptionOption Buy/Sell RateBuy/Sell RateBuy/Sell RateBuy/Sell RateBuy/Sell RatePPPPPricericericericerice TTTTTypeypeypeypeype (((((`̀̀̀̀)))))

Closing PClosing PClosing PClosing PClosing Pricericericericerice ExpectedExpectedExpectedExpectedExpected ((((( `̀̀̀̀))))) PPPPProfit/Lrofit/Lrofit/Lrofit/Lrofit/Lossossossossoss

0.00

0.00

`5.00

`15.00

(`5.00)

(`25.00)

Weekly

Ratings (Based on expected returnsRatings (Based on expected returnsRatings (Based on expected returnsRatings (Based on expected returnsRatings (Based on expected returns Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)over 12 months investment period):over 12 months investment period):over 12 months investment period):over 12 months investment period):over 12 months investment period): Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15)

Disclaimer

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