weekly rice reportfiles.constantcontact.com/3a24bb17201/7444341e-2dea-4ea4... · 2017-06-05 ·...

CropCast® Weekly Rice Report Don Keeney | Wednesday, May 31, 2017

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Global Rice Summary

PAST WEATHER: Showers favored western and east central South China last week.

Amounts were 0.25 to 1.5”, with 35% coverage.

FORECAST: Showers should build across Yangtze Valley and South China this

week.

CROP IMPACT: Moisture shortages and stress continue to build on rice across

southern Yangtze Valley and South China as rains remain rather limited. However, a

notable upturn in rains in those areas this week should improve moisture supplies

and crop conditions. Some dryness may linger in eastern North China Plain,

though.

China 17/18 Prod. Estimate: 146.32 MMT Precipitation % Normal-Past 60 Days

17/18 Production Estimate: 489.54 MMT

PAST WEATHER: Showers were noted across much of the region this past week.

Amounts were 0.25 to 1.5”, with 85% coverage.

FORECAST: Showers should favor northeastern areas this week.

CROP IMPACT: Showers last week were too limited to significantly improve mois-

ture supplies for rice. Limited rains in central and southwestern areas this week will

maintain moisture shortages and stress on rice.

Japan 17/18 Production Estimate: 7.50 MMT

Precipitation % Normal-Past 60 Days

India/Bangladesh/Pakistan 17/18 India Prod. Est.: 108.54 MMT

17/18 Bangladesh Prod. Est.: 36.34 MMT

17/18 Pakistan Prod. Est.: 7.22 MMT


PAST WEATHER: Showers favored east central and southern India and Bangladesh

this past week. Amounts were 0.25 to 1.5”, locally 6”, with 50% coverage of India

and 85% of Bangladesh.

FORECAST: Showers should build further across central and eastern India this

week, and also remain active across Bangladesh.

CROP IMPACT: Continued abundant rains in Bangladesh will maintain some wet-

ness concerns. Meanwhile, additional rains across east central and southern India

will further improve moisture for kharif rice growth.

Rains in northern Vietnam this week should improve moisture for rice. Abundant rains Thailand are maintaining favora-

ble moisture. Widespread rains in Yangtze Valley and South China this week should further improve moisture there for

rice. Showers in Luzon in the Philippines last week continued to improve moisture. Abundant showers across West Afri-

ca continue to improve moisture, although more rains are still needed, especially in Ghana, southern Ivory Coast, and

central Nigeria. Drier weather in central and northern Brazil have allowed harvesting there to finish up. Drier weather in

Argentina and Uruguay this week will allow harvesting there to improve. Dryness will continue to build across central

and southwestern Madagascar. An upturn in rains in central and southern India this week will improve moisture for

kharif rice. Additional rains in the Coastal Bend in the U.S. will further improve moisture for rice growth.




Philippines

PAST WEATHER: Rains were noted across much of the region again this past

week, favoring Luzon. Amounts were 0.25 to 1.5”, locally 10”, with 90% coverage.

FORECAST: Showers should be widespread across the region this week.

CROP IMPACT: Abundant rains across Luzon last week continued to improve

moisture supplies, and additional improvements are expected this week. The rains

are most needed in southwestern Luzon. The rains will continue to favor main sea-

son rice growth.

Precipitation % Normal-Past 60 Days 17/18 Production Estimate: 12.48 MMT

Indonesia

PAST WEATHER: Rains favored central and southern Sumatra, northern Malay

Peninsula, Kalimantan, and East Malaysia this past week. Amounts were 0.25 to 1.5”,

locally 10”, with 80% coverage.

FORECAST: Rains should favor southern Sumatra, northern Malay Peninsula, Kali-

mantan, and East Malaysia this week.

CROP IMPACT: Abundant rains across the region continue to improve moisture

supplies, but are maintaining slow harvesting of main season rice. Limited rains in

central and northern Sumatra and Malay Peninsula this week should favor harvest-

ing.


Vietnam/Thailand 17/18 Vietnam Prod. Est.: 31.36 MMT

17/18 Thailand Prod. Est.: 20.38 MMT Precipitation % Normal-Past 60 Days

Brazil

PAST WEATHER: Showers favored northwestern Mato Grosso, eastern Bahia,

southern Parana, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul this past week. Amounts

were 0.25 to 1.5”, locally 10”, with 30% coverage.

FORECAST: A few showers should continue to favor southern areas this week.

CROP IMPACT: Drier weather in central and northern areas has allowed harvesting

to finish up.

17/18 Production Estimates: 8.28 MMT Precipitation % Normal-Past 60 Days

PAST WEATHER: Showers favored central and southern Vietnam and Thailand last

week. Amounts were 0.25 to 1.5”, locally 6”, with 75% coverage of Vietnam and

90% of Thailand.

FORECAST: Showers are expected across much of Vietnam and Thailand this week.

CROP IMPACT: Active rains in Thailand are maintaining favorable moisture for

main season rice growth. However, some dryness is developing across northern

Vietnam. Some improvements are likely in northern Vietnam this week.




PAST WEATHER: Showers favored northeastern Madagascar this past week.

Amounts were 0.25 to 1.5”, locally 4”, with 25% coverage.

FORECAST: A few showers should favor northeastern Madagascar again this week.

CROP IMPACT: Additional rains across northeastern areas are maintaining favora-

ble moisture for rice. However, continued drier weather in central and southwest-

ern areas will allow moisture shortages to continue there.

PAST WEATHER: Showers were noted across much of the region again this past

week. Amounts were 0.25 to 1.5”, locally 2.5”, with 90% coverage.

FORECAST: Mostly dry weather is expected this week.

CROP IMPACT: Abundant rains across the region last week maintained slow har-

vesting, but drier weather this week will favor harvesting.


Southeast Africa 17/18 Madagascar Prod Est.: 2.39 MMT

Argentina/Uruguay



West Africa

PAST WEATHER: Rains were widespread across the region this past week.

Amounts were 0.25 to 1.5”, locally 4”, with 85% coverage.

FORECAST: Showers should be widespread across much of the region again this

week.

CROP IMPACT: Continued active rains across the region are slowly improving

moisture, but heavier rains are needed in many areas to ease long term moisture

shortages. The rains are most needed in southern Ivory Coast, Ghana and central

Nigeria.

Precipitation % Normal-Past 60 Days 17/18 Nigeria Prod. Est.: 2.98 MMT

Precipitation Past 7 Days




West Africa Vegetative Health Index (VHI) West Africa VHI Change from Last Year

Southeast Africa Vegetative Health Index (VHI) Southeast Africa VHI Change from Last Year

United States

PAST WEATHER: Showers were noted across much of the Delta and Coastal Bend

this past week. Amounts were 0.25 to 1.5”, locally 4”, with 90% coverage.

FORECAST: Rains should be active across the Delta and Coastal Bend this week.

CROP IMPACT: Abundant rains across the Delta and Coastal Bend are maintaining

favorable moisture for rice. Additional rains across the Coastal Bend this week will

continue to improve moisture for rice.





China Vegetative Health Index (VHI) China VHI Change from Last Year

India Vegetative Health Index (VHI) India VHI Change from Last Year




North America Vegetative Health Index (VHI) North America VHI Change from Last Year

Southeast Asia Vegetative Health Index (VHI) Southeast Asia VHI Change from Last Year

South America VHI Change from Last Year South America Vegetative Health Index (VHI)




PCT ACTUAL PCT ACTUAL

2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 (TMT) (TMT)

CHINA 31040 31000 6734 6800 146320 146320 0.0 0 0.0 0

JAPAN 1600 1600 6775 6700 7588 7504 0.0 0 -1.1 -84

INDIA 44400 44300 3500 3500 108780 108535 0.0 0 -0.2 -245

BANGLADESH 11800 11800 4400 4400 36344 36344 0.0 0 0.0 0

NIGERIA 2375 2500 1775 1700 2951 2975 0.0 0 0.8 24

INDONESIA 12200 12200 4750 4750 40565 40565 0.0 0 0.0 0

VIETNAM 7700 7725 5750 5800 30993 31364 0.0 0 1.2 371

THAILAND 10000 10400 2775 2800 19425 20384 0.0 0 4.9 959

PAKISTAN 2700 2750 3750 3750 7088 7219 0.0 0 1.9 131

MADAGASCAR 1400 1410 2475 2425 2426 2393 0.0 0 -1.3 -32

PHILIPPINES 4700 4600 3825 3875 12584 12478 0.0 0 -0.8 -107

BRAZIL 2000 2150 6000 5500 8400 8278 0.0 0 -1.5 -123

U.S. 1200 1075 8475 8600 7119 6472 0.0 0 -9.1 -648

OTHERS 27400 27500 3040 3050 58307 58713 0.0 0 0.7 405

WORLD 160515 161010 4573 4546 488888 489541 0.0 0 0.1 653

CROPCAST RICE FORECAST

May 31, 2017

AREA YIELD PRODUCTION 2017 PRODUCTION CHANGE

(T HA) (KG/HA) (TMT) OVER PAST WK OVER 2016

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