weekly-ethanol-22-aug-2011 precios del etanol a nivel mundial
TRANSCRIPT
1
Ethanol outlook REPoRt FOR THE WEEK OF:
taBlE oF ContEntS1. Commentary
2 Top Ethanol News
4. Volume and Open Interest
5. Ethanol Futures & Forwards
8. Ethanol (Platts) Swaps
10. Rotterdam Ethanol
11. Ethanol vs Gasoline
12. Ethanol vs Corn
13. Ethanol vs Sugar
14. Rotterdam Biodiesel
17. Ethanol Industry Data
18. Contract & Contact Info
USDA forecasts very tight corn sup-plies but ethanol profit margins so far remain stable -- The USDA in its latest WASDE report released on August 11 cut its U.S. corn production estimate sharply by 4.1% to 12.914 billion bushels. The reason for that crop size cut was the USDA’s cut in its yield estimate to 153.0 bushels per acre from July’s 158.7 bushels. The yield cut was due to the very hot weather seen in July. The smaller crop size forced the USDA to cut its ending stocks estimate to 714 million bushels from 870 million bushels in July. That left the stocks/use ratio at an extremely tight 5.4%, which is even tighter than last year’s 7.1% and is the second tightest in recent decades behind 5.0% in 1995/96.
The tightness in corn supplies is mainly due to strong demand that will more than soak up this summer’s large corn crop, which is expected to be the third largest ever and only 1.5% smaller than the record crop of 13.110 billion bushels seen two years ago in 2009/10. The USDA is forecasting demand in the 2010/11 market-ing year at 13.160 billion bushels, which is larger than the crop size and accounts for the expected draw-down in ending stocks. Ethanol producers are expected to use 5.100 billion bushels of corn, or 39.5% of this summer’s crop. However, some rationing is required to reduce demand and that is mainly being seen in reduced export and animal feed demand. The bottom line is that there will be enough corn for ethanol producers from this summer’s crop. In addition, profit margins currently look adequate as long as ethanol prices continue to keep pace with any further strength in corn prices.
Weekly EIA report shows ethanol in-ventories falling to new 6-1/2 month low -- In a supportive factor for ethanol prices, ethanol inventories have fallen by a total of 7.1% in the last two reporting weeks to a 6-1/2
month low of 17.582 million barrels, which is down by 15.5% from May’s record high. Mean-while, ethanol production is running in the upper half of this year’s range and in the latest week fell by 1.0% to 899,000 barrels per day.
Ethanol Market Action -- Sep ethanol futures prices last week rallied to post a new 3-week high and closed up 4.9 cents (+1.8%) at $2.834 per gallon. Bullish factors last week in-cluded the 0.7% rally in gasoline prices and the 1.3% rally in corn prices. Ethanol also received support in the last two weeks from the weekly EIA reports showing an overall 7.1% drop in inventories to a 6-1/2 month low.
Ethanol/Gasoline -- Sep gasoline futures prices last week consolidated after the re-cent plunge and closed the week up 1.9 cents (+0.7%) at $2.8412 per gallon. Gasoline saw some short-covering but remains in a gener-ally bearish mode due to the recent plunge in global equities and worries about weaker global economic growth and fuel demand. Sep etha-nol prices closed last week at a 0.7 cent per gal-lon discount to gasoline prices, which equates to a 45.7-cent ethanol discount including the 45-cent ethanol tax credit. Ethanol/Corn -- Sep corn futures prices are consolidating toward the upper end of July’s range and closed up 9.25 cents (+1.3%) last week at $7.11 per bushel. Corn prices continue to see support from the hot summer weather and concern about yields. The Sep ethanol-corn crush margin last week rose by 1.6 cents to 29.5 cents/gallon. Including DDG, the Sep corn for ethanol crush margin rose by 1.0 cents to 65.2 cents/gallon.
Ethanol Calendar• Aug 24: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report• Aug 30: EIA Monthly Ethanol Report• Aug 31: USDA WASDE Crop Supply-Demand• Sep 5: Next CME Ethanol Outlook Report• Sep 12: USDA WASDE Crop Supply-Demand
Ethanol ClosesLast FridayClose
WeeklyChange
Ethanol & DDG Futures
CBOT Ethanol Future (U11) $2.834 +$0.049
CBOT Ethanol Forward (U11) $2.7550 +$0.0750
NY Physical Ethanol (U11) $2.8800 +$0.0550
Chicago (Platts) Swap Future (U11)
$2.7920 +$0.0620
NY (Platts) Swap Future (U11) $2.8800 +$0.0550
Rotterdam Platts T2 Ethanol (U11) €608 €0
Nymex Biodiesel Futures
Nymex RME Biodiesel (U11) $1454 -$1
Nymex FAME Biodiesel (U11)
$1371 $0
Spreads (cents per gallon)
Ethanol-Gasoline (U11) -0.7¢ +3.0¢
Ethanol - Corn Margin (U11)
29.5¢ +1.6¢
Ethanol - Corn + DDG Margin(U11) 65.2¢ +1.0¢
August 22, 2011
CME GRouP Ethanol outlook REPoRt August 22, 2011
2
top Weekly Ethanol news
TOP ETHANOL NEWS CONTINUES ON NEXT PAGE
Congress leaves for August recess without passing ethanol deal
Aug 8 - UNICA - Unfortunately, there was an important piece of the debt puzzle that got left out of the final product, and that was the bipartisan effort to end the ethanol tax credit and import tariff...
Obama administration to stimulate biofuel industry
Aug 16 - Reuters - Under the plan sponsored by the Navy, Energy and Agriculture departments, companies will be invited to bid on...
Vilsack: USDA will continue to push for blender pump expansion
Aug 18 - Ethanol Producer Magazine - The USDA’s Aug. 17 announcement of 900 Rural Energy for America Program grants...
Growth Energy reacts to President’s speech at Rural Economic Forum
Aug 16 - Growth Energy - Growth Energy CEO Tom Buis released the following statement in response to remarks given by President...
Washington’s new era
Aug 15 - Ethanol Producer Magazine - The recent partisan battle over raising the amount of money the federal government is allowed to borrow to pay its bills is merely a symptom of a larger...
US Government to invest $510M in advanced, drop-in biofuels
Aug 16 - Biofuels Digest - US announces historic investment to jump-start “drop-in” biofuels at commercial scale....
Ethanol, petroleum industries explain concerns over proposed RFS
Aug 11 - Ethanol Producer Magazine - Members of the ethanol and petroleum industries voiced their concerns over the U.S. EPA’s proposed renewable fuel standard (RFS) volumes for 2012...
CFTC approves CME plan to raise daily corn trading limit
Aug 9 - NASDAQ - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Tuesday approved a controversial proposal to increase the...
Increased corn trade limit sparks volatility concerns for some
Aug 12 - Ethanol Producer Magazine - The Commodities Futures Trading Commission has approved a request from the CME Group...
Biofuels-related investment, M&A activity passes $10B for 2011
Aug 18 - Biofuels Digest - In Florida, Biofuels Digest released its Biofuels DealFlow recap for 2011, tracking private sector...
From farm to biorefinery: Ethanol production efficiency improves
Aug 18 - RFA - In the second part of RFA’s series on the improving efficiencies of corn ethanol production, the focus will be...
More ethanol, fewer inputs, increasing benefits: More corn on fewer acres, less water
Aug 9 - RFA - Over the past 30 years, and in particular in the past decade, ethanol production has quietly become increasingly efficient....
The selling of renewable fuels
Aug 19 - Biofuels Digest - In all the discussions about renewable fuels R&D, engineering, policy, finance, and construction, the...
USDA, DOE award 10 R&D grants for advanced bioenergy feedstocks
Aug 12 - Biofuels Digest - In Washington, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack announced that the USDA and DOE have awarded...
USDA, DOE fund further energy crop research
Aug 12 - Ethanol Producer Magazine - Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack announced Aug. 11 that his agency and the U.S. DOE will provide $12.2 million to fund 10 research projects...
CME GRouP Ethanol outlook REPoRt August 22, 2011
3
Corn’s new sacred cow?
Aug 11 - National Journal - You wouldn’t know it from the political cloud over ethanol, but the federal government will keep...
Investors seeing gold in farmland, infrastructure
Aug 20 - Reuters - The overall economy may be struggling against a double-dip recession but in farm country the boom times have rarely been better....
USDA drops projected corn yield sharply due to hot, dry weather
Aug 11 - Ethanol Producer Magazine - As expected, the USDA dropped its corn production forecast in the Aug. 11 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates Report, dropping...
Study finds beef, dairy farm profits rose since RFS expansion
Aug 9 - Ethanol Producer Magazine - Economic conditions have improved for beef and dairy farmers since the implementation of the expanded renewable fuel standard (RFS) in 2007...
Gene breakthrough could unlock ethanol potential
Aug 11 - Renewable Energy News - The federal government has stepped up its efforts both financially and in the lab in an effort to boost American biofuel production....
Analysis: Recession could tip U.S. oil use into permanent decline
Aug 14 - Reuters - As a U.S. economic rebound stalls and threatens to spiral into recession, oil demand in the world’s top consumer...
High energy output found from algae-based fuel, but ‘No Silver Bullet’
Aug 10 - Science Daily - Algae-based fuel is one of many options among the array of possible future energy sources....
LanzaTech, Harsco agree to develop ethanol-from-steel gas process
Aug 16 - Ethanol Producer Magazine - Worldwide industrial solutions company Harsco Corp. and clean energy technology company LanzaTech announce the signing of a strategic alliance...
Transformative technologies 2011: Solazyme, Gevo, Amyris, Coskata nab top seeds
Aug 15 - Biofuels Digest - In Florida, Amyris, Gevo, Solazyme and Coskata landed the top four seeds in the 2011 Transformative Technologies tournament, which kicks off today...
ZeaChem forms strategic partnership with Chrysler Group
Aug 15 - Ethanol Producer Magazine - ZeaChem Inc. announced it has signed a memorandum of understanding with Chrysler Group...
Ineos first to close USDA loan guarantee for cellulosic ethanol
Aug 18 - Ethanol Producer Magazine - Shortly after a visit to the facility by Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack, the USDA and Ineos Bio announced that Ineos New Planet BioEnergy LLC’s...
U.S. offers Abengoa $134 million loan aid for cellulosic
Aug 19 - Reuters - The Energy Department said on Friday it has offered a conditional commitment for $133.9 million in loan aid...
Solazyme, Bunge in JV for 100K tonnes of renewable oils in Brazil by 2013
Aug 9 - Biofuels Digest - In California, Solazyme and Bunge announced the formation of a joint venture focused...
UNICA sees mounting pressure to end U.S. ethanol import tariff and subsidies
Aug 16 - UNICA - A prominent voice added weight to the ever more prevalent view that the days of ethanol subsidies and a hefty...
Petrobras boosts ethanol investment to increase capacity
Aug 16 - Ethanol Producer Magazine - Petrobras announced recently that its biofuels division will invest heavily in the....
Petrobras sees $570 mln for ethanol acquisitions by 2015
Aug 11 - Reuters - Brazil’s state-led oil company Petrobras plans to spend $570 million over five years for ethanol-industry acquisitions, about a third of its planned biofuel investment during the period...
Revised estimate for 2011/2012 sugarcane harvest sets total South-Central Brazil harvest at 510.24 million tons
Aug 11 - UNICA - The Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (UNICA), in partnership with the Center for Sugarcane...
2011 DDGS exports to Japan up 45%, likely to set records
Aug 16 - Ethanol Producer Magazine - The U.S. Grains Council reports sales of U.S. DDGS to Japan for 2011 are on pace to set...
top Weekly Ethanol news (continued)
CME GRouP Ethanol outlook REPoRt August 22, 2011
4
CBot Ethanol Forward Month Swaps - Monthly Volume & open Interest
CBot Ethanol Futures - Monthly Volume & open Interest
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Volume
Open Interest
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Volume
Open Interest
CME GRouP Ethanol outlook REPoRt August 22, 2011
5
CBot Ethanol and Forward Month Swap Futures - Closing Prices
Closes for: Friday August 19 CBOT Ethanol Forward Month SwapSymbol Last Change High Low Daily Volume Open Interest
FZEQ11 2.7800 +0.0250 2.7800 2.7800 0 5919
FZEU11 2.7550 +0.0550 2.7550 2.7550 330 4520
FZEV11 2.7050 +0.0570 2.7050 2.7050 175 4841
FZEX11 2.6730 +0.0550 2.6730 2.6730 234 4830
FZEZ11 2.6050 +0.0570 2.6050 2.6050 175 5091
FZEF12 2.5910 +0.0370 2.5910 2.5910 135 4040
FZEG12 2.5940 +0.0370 2.5940 2.5940 135 3958
FZEH12 2.6020 +0.0360 2.6020 2.6020 135 3752
FZEJ12 2.6120 +0.0400 2.6120 2.6120 20 1277
FZEK12 2.6180 +0.0440 2.6180 2.6180 20 1191
FZEM12 2.6270 +0.0460 2.6270 2.6270 20 1186
FZEN12 2.5870 +0.0590 2.5870 2.5870 0 214
FZEQ12 2.4860 +0.0470 2.4860 2.4860 0 185
FZEU12 2.3910 +0.0500 2.3910 2.3910 0 185
FZEV12 2.3960 +0.0500 2.3960 2.3960 0 111
FZEX12 2.3780 +0.0500 2.3780 2.3780 0 111
FZEZ12 2.3500 +0.0500 2.3500 2.3500 0 111
Daily Volume and Open Interest 1,379 41,522
Closes for: Friday August 19 CBOT Ethanol Futures Symbol Last Change High Low Daily Volume Open Interest
ZEU11 2.834 +0.055 2.853 2.811 202 885
ZEV11 2.755 +0.055 2.766 2.730 186 1384
ZEX11 2.705 +0.057 2.718 2.685 25 1219
ZEZ11 2.673 +0.055 2.680 2.650 98 1367
ZEF12 2.605 +0.057 2.611 2.595 33 770
ZEG12 2.591 +0.037 2.598 2.590 20 738
ZEH12 2.594 +0.037 2.598 2.590 17 685
ZEJ12 2.602 +0.036 2.608 2.593 23 553
ZEK12 2.612 +0.040 2.627 2.600 15 311
ZEM12 2.618 +0.044 2.625 2.614 14 516
ZEN12 2.627 +0.046 2.633 2.622 15 528
ZEQ12 2.587 +0.059 2.594 2.581 10 398
ZEU12 2.486 +0.047 2.495 2.486 10 234
ZEV12 2.391 +0.050 2.391 2.390 10 163
ZEX12 2.396 +0.050 2.396 2.396 0 21
ZEZ12 2.378 +0.050 2.378 2.378 0 34
ZEF13 2.350 +0.050 2.350 2.350 5 20
Daily Volume and Open Interest 683 9,826
CME GRouP Ethanol outlook REPoRt August 22, 2011
6
CBot Ethanol Futures – Daily & Weekly Charts
CME GRouP Ethanol outlook REPoRt August 22, 2011
7
CBot Forward Ethanol Swaps – Daily & Weekly Charts
CME GRouP Ethanol outlook REPoRt August 22, 2011
8
nYMEX Chicago and new York Ethanol (Platts) Swap Futures Prices - Closing Prices
Closes for: Friday August 19 NYMEX Chicago Ethanol (Platts) Swap FuturesSymbol Last Change High Low Daily Volume Open Interest
CUQ11 2.8307 +0.0133 2.8307 2.8307 0 4380
CUU11 2.7920 +0.0530 2.7920 2.7920 131 2824
CUV11 2.7520 +0.0550 2.7520 2.7520 120 2412
CUX11 2.7070 +0.0500 2.7070 2.7070 335 2801
CUZ11 2.6680 +0.0490 2.6680 2.6680 293 2406
CUF12 2.6030 +0.0450 2.6030 2.6030 25 634
CUG12 2.6050 +0.0480 2.6050 2.6050 0 274
CUH12 2.6050 +0.0470 2.6050 2.6050 0 99
CUJ12 2.5810 +0.0390 2.5810 2.5810 0 82
CUK12 2.5870 +0.0390 2.5870 2.5870 0 82
CUM12 2.5860 +0.0380 2.5860 2.5860 0 82
CUN12 2.6320 +0.0700 2.6320 2.6320 0 58
CUQ12 2.6070 +0.0700 2.6070 2.6070 0 39
CUU12 2.5160 +0.0390 2.5160 2.5160 0 39
CUV12 2.4410 +0.0130 2.4410 2.4410 0 76
CUX12 2.4370 +0.0120 2.4370 2.4370 0 76
CUZ12 2.4370 +0.0140 2.4370 2.4370 0 76
Daily Volume and Open Interest 904 16,440
Closes for: Friday August 19 NYMEX New York Ethanol (Platts) Swap FuturesSymbol Last Change High Low Daily Volume Open Interest
EZQ11 2.9071 +0.0133 2.9071 2.9071 0 399
EZU11 2.8800 +0.0500 2.8800 2.8800 25 350
EZV11 2.8400 +0.0450 2.8400 2.8400 25 195
EZX11 2.7900 +0.0450 2.7900 2.7900 0 70
EZZ11 2.7550 +0.0500 2.7550 2.7550 0 95
Daily Volume and Open Interest 50 1,109
CME GRouP Ethanol outlook REPoRt August 22, 2011
9
nYMEX Chicago (Platts) Swap Futures Prices - Daily Chart
nYMEX new York (Platts) Swap Futures Prices - Daily Chart
CME GRouP Ethanol outlook REPoRt August 22, 2011
10
Ethanol (Platts) FoB Rotterdam Swap Futures Including Duty
CME GRouP Ethanol outlook REPoRt August 22, 2011
11
CBot Ethanol nearest-Futures versus nYMEX RBoB Gasoline nearest-Futures
Spread: CBot Ethanol Futures - nYMEX RBoB Gasoline Futures ($/gallon)
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
5/05 11/05 5/06 11/06 5/07 11/07 5/08 11/08 5/09 11/09 5/10 11/10 05/11
CBOT Ethanol Futures ($/gal)
NYMEX RBOB Gasoline Futures ($/gal)
Rolling 1-yr Correlation: 0.314
$/gal
-$1.50
-$1.00
-$0.50
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
5/05 11/05 5/06 11/06 5/07 11/07 5/08 11/08 5/09 11/09 5/10 11/10 05/11 $/gal
CME GRouP Ethanol outlook REPoRt August 22, 2011
12
CBot Ethanol nearest-Futures versus CBot Corn nearest-Futures
Spread: CBot Ethanol-Corn and Ethanol-Corn+DDG Crush Margins ($/gallon)
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
5/05 11/05 5/06 11/06 5/07 11/07 5/08 11/08 5/09 11/09 5/10 11/10 05/11
Ethanol Futures ($/gal)
Corn Futures ($/bushel)
Rolling 1-yr Correlation: 0.752
-$0.50
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
5/05 11/05 5/06 11/06 5/07 11/07 5/08 11/08 5/09 11/09 5/10 11/10 05/11
Ethanol-Corn Crush Profit Margin ($/gallon) = Ethanol Price - (Corn Price / 2.8 gal/bu)
$/gal
Corn for Ethanol Crush Margin (Ethanol-Corn+DDG) (in $/gal) = Ethanol Price -(Corn Price/2.8 gal/bu) + [(DDG Price/lb x (17.5 lb/bu / 2.8 gal/bu)]
CME GRouP Ethanol outlook REPoRt August 22, 2011
13
CBot Ethanol Futures versus World Raw Sugar (#11) Futures
Spread: CBot Ethanol Futures minus World Raw Sugar (#11) Futures ($/gallon)
$0.00
$0.05
$0.10
$0.15
$0.20
$0.25
$0.30
$0.35
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
5/05 11/05 5/06 11/06 5/07 11/07 5/08 11/08 5/09 11/09 5/10 11/10 05/11
Ethanol Futures ($/gal) (left scale)
Sugar Futures ($/lb)(right scale)
Rolling 1-yr Correlation: 0.403
$/lb$/gal
-$3.00
-$2.00
-$1.00
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
5/05 11/05 5/06 11/06 5/07 11/07 5/08 11/08 5/09 11/09 5/10 11/10 05/11
Spread ($/gallon) = Ethanol Price - (Sugar Price * 14.8 lb/gal)Estimated Ethanol-Sugar Profit Margin Per Gallon
$/gal
CME GRouP Ethanol outlook REPoRt August 22, 2011
14
nymex FaME argus Biodiesel FoB Rotterdam Swap Futures
Closes for: Friday August 19 FAME Argus Biodiesel FOB Rotterdam Swap Futures Symbol Last Change High Low Daily Volume Open Interest
2LQ11 1406.810 +1.715 1406.810 1406.810 0 175
2LU11 1371.000 +7.000 1371.000 1371.000 0 185
2LV11 1344.000 +9.000 1344.000 1344.000 0 325
2LX11 1325.000 +14.000 1325.000 1325.000 0 65
2LZ11 1323.000 +17.000 1323.000 1323.000 0 65
2LF12 1306.000 +15.000 1306.000 1306.000 0 50
2LG12 1305.000 +15.000 1305.000 1305.000 0 50
2LH12 1304.000 +15.000 1304.000 1304.000 0 50
2LJ12 1299.000 +15.000 1299.000 1299.000 0 10
2LK12 1299.000 +15.000 1299.000 1299.000 0 10
2LM12 1301.000 +16.000 1301.000 1301.000 0 10
Daily Volume and Open Interest 0 995
CME GRouP Ethanol outlook REPoRt August 22, 2011
15
nymex RME Biodiesel (argus) FoB Rotterdam Swap Futures
Closes for: Friday August 19 RME Biodiesel (Argus) FOB Rotterdam Swap Futures Symbol Last Change High Low Daily Volume Open Interest
1AQ11 1470.524 +1.191 1470.524 1470.524 0 120
1AU11 1454.000 +3.000 1454.000 1454.000 0 100
1AV11 1444.000 +3.000 1444.000 1444.000 0 150
1AX11 1435.000 -1.000 1435.000 1435.000 0 120
1AZ11 1432.000 -3.000 1432.000 1432.000 0 120
1AF12 1425.000 +2.000 1425.000 1425.000 0 20
1AG12 1422.000 unch 1422.000 1422.000 0 20
1AH12 1419.000 unch 1419.000 1419.000 0 20
Daily Volume and Open Interest 0 670
CME GRouP Ethanol outlook REPoRt August 22, 2011
16
nymex Rotterdam Biodiesel Swap Futures versus ICE Gasoil nearest-Futures
Spreads: nymex Rotterdam Biodiesel Swap Futures Minus ICE Gasoil
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
$550
$600
$650
$700
$750
$800
5/09 8/09 11/09 2/10 5/10 8/10 11/10 2/11 5/11 8/11 $/MT
RME Argus Biodiesel - Gasoil Spread
FAME Argus Biodiesel -Gasoil Spread
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
$1,300
$1,400
$1,500
$1,600
5/09 8/09 11/09 2/10 5/10 8/10 11/10 2/11 5/11 8/11
ICE Gasoil ($/MT)
RME Argus Biodiesel Rotterdam ($/MT)
Rolling 1-yr Correlations: RME vs Gasoil: 0.617FAME vs Gasoil: 0.602RME vs FAME: 0.832
$/MT
FAME Argus Biodiesel Rotterdam ($/MT)
CME GRouP Ethanol outlook REPoRt August 22, 2011
17
u.S. Ethanol Industry Data
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Tho
usan
d ba
rrel
s/da
y
U.S. Monthly Ethanol Production
Source: EIA-DOE
May-2011: 895,000 bpdApr-2011: 886,000 bpdMar-2011: 909,000 bpd
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Billi
on G
allo
ns/Y
r.
U.S. Annual Ethanol Production
Source: EIA-DOE
2011 (ytd): 13.76 bln gal.2010: 13.23 bln gal.
RFS Mandates:2010: 12.95 bln gal 2011: 13.95 bln gal2012: 15.20 bln gal.
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
0
20
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140
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Eth
anal
Pric
e -
$ P
er G
allo
n
Impo
rts
-Milli
on G
allo
ns/M
o
U.S. Ethanol Imports vs Ethanol Price
Ethanol Prices
Negligible since 1/2011
500
600
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1000
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
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Sep Oct
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Dec
Mln
Gal
lons
U.S. Ethanol Monthly Inventory Stocks
2010
May-2011: 856 mln gal.
2009
Source: EIA/DOE
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan Mar May July Sep Nov
U.S. Ethanol Stocks/Production Ratio
May-2011: 73.5%2010
5-yr avg
Source: EIA/DOE
0
5
10
15
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Billi
on G
allo
ns/Y
r
U.S. Ethanol Plant Capacity & Construction
Capacity Under Construction
Source: Renewable Fuels Association
Jul-11 Capacity: 14.745 bln galUnder Construction: 246 mln gal
CME GRouP Ethanol outlook REPoRt August 22, 2011
18
CME Group Ethanol ContractsContract Exchange
SymbolClearing Symbol
BarchartSymbol
BloombergSymbol
ContractSize
Venue Delivery
CBOT Ethanol Futures (Chicago delivery)
ZE EH ZK DL 29,000 gal-lons
CME Globex
Physical delivery with seller paying negotiated freight delivery to buyer, or Chicago default delivery.
CBOT Ethanol Forward Month Swap FZE 71 FZ FZE 14,500
gallonsCME
ClearPort
Cash-settled to the average of the settlement prices for the Ethanol futures contract that follows the Ethanol calendar Swap contract for each business day in the Ethanol Calendar Swap contract month.
CBOT Ethanol Forward Month Swap Options
COS/POS 71 - -
1 Forward mth swap contract
CME ClearPort
Options are cash-settled on the last clearing day and cannot be exercised at any time
NYMEX Ethanol Physical Futures (NY) QE QE QB QEE 42,000
gallonsCME
Globex Physical delivery New York Harbor
NYMEX Chicago Ethanol (Platts) Swap Futures
CU CU FL CUA 42,000 gallons
CME ClearPort
Financial settlement, based on the arithmetic average of the high and low quotations from Platts for Chicago Ethanol (Terminal) for each business day during the contract month.
NYMEX New York Ethanol (Platts) Swap Futures
EZ EZ FH TTA 42,000 gallons
CME ClearPort
Financial settlement, based on the arithmetic average of the high and low quotations from Platts for New York Ethanol NYH (Barge) or each business day during the contract month.
NYMEX Ethanol (Platts) T1 FOB Rot-terdam Ex Duty Swap Futures
2M 2M D1 BME 100 cu meters
CME ClearPort
Financial settlement, based on the arithmetic average of the mid-point of the high and low quotations from Platts European Marketscan for Ethanol under the “Ethanol fob Rotterdam ex duty” assessment for each business day that it is determined during the contract month.
NYMEX Ethanol (Platts) T2 FOB Rotterdam Including Duty Swap Futures
Z1 Z1 D2 ZAE 100 cu meters
CME ClearPort
Financial settlement, based on the arithmetic average of the mid-point of the high and low quotations from Platts European Marketscan for Ethanol under the “Ethanol fob Rotterdam including duty” assessment for each business day that it is determined during the contract month.
Note: All CME ethanol contracts are quoted in terms of US Dollars per gallon and have contracts for each consecutive month.
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CME Group Ethanol Contacts
Erich ReulbachManager, Energy Products and [email protected] - 212-299-2445
Alexandra SiffAssociate Director, Energy [email protected] - 212-299-2368
John HillEconomist, Research & Product [email protected] 312-930-1852
Lisa KallalManager, Commodity Products & Services [email protected] - 011-44-20-7796-7130
Daniel BrusstarDirector, Energy Research & Product [email protected] - 212-299-2604