Weekly Cat Report May 8, 2020

Weekly Cat Report 2

This Week’s Natural Disaster Events

Event Impacted Areas Fatalities Damaged Structures and/or Filed Claims

PreliminaryEconomic Loss (USD)*

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Severe Weather United States 2+ 10s of Thousands 100s of Millions 3

Earthquake Puerto Rico 0 Hundreds Millions 8

Flooding Rwanda 73+ Hundreds Unknown 10

Flooding Kenya 30+ Thousands Millions 10

Flooding Indonesia 0 22,000+ Millions 11

Flooding Afghanistan 4+ 1,100+ Unknown 11

Severe Weather Spain 0 Hundreds Millions 11

Wildfire United States 0 Unknown Millions 11

*Please note that these estimates are preliminary and subject to change. In some instances, initial estimates may be significantly adjusted as losses develop over time. This data is provided as an initial view of the potential financial impact from a recently completed or ongoing event based on early available assessments.

Along with this report, we continue to welcome users to access current and historical natural catastrophe data and event analysis on Impact Forecasting’s Catastrophe Insight website: http://catastropheinsight.aon.com

Weekly Cat Report 3

Hail & damaging winds bring more U.S. storm damage Additional rounds of severe weather impacted parts of the central and southern sections of the U.S. from May 2-5, bringing more storm-related damage to several states. The hardest-hit areas came in parts of Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas, Arkansas, and Tennessee as large hail – up to the size of softballs – and damaging straight-line winds approaching 80 mph (130 kph) were recorded. Much of the damage on May 3 and May 4 were attributed to consecutive days of separate derecho events that tracked from the Plains into the Southeast. A “derecho” is defined as a fast-moving cluster of thunderstorms that travels hundreds of miles and is marked by widespread straight-line wind damage. Total economic and insured losses from the stretch were each likely to reach into the hundreds of millions (USD).

Meteorological Recap

May 3

Late afternoon on May 3 a rapidly advancing derecho traversed through regions near the Ozarks, Kentucky, and Tennessee resulting in frequent and widespread reports of severe and damaging winds, in addition to large hail.

Earlier in the morning, a mesoscale convective system approaching southern Kansas and moving into Missouri, originally initiated by outflow boundaries and aided by broad upper level support from an amplifying trough, traveled southeastward in association with a southward sinking frontal boundary. By the afternoon, redevelopment

into a severe derecho, with a bowing line of strong storms occurred as the system progressed into a favorable environment characterized by moderate shear, high dewpoints, and sufficient diurnal heating. These continuously evolving circumstances prompted the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) to issue an Enhanced Risk (level 3 out of 5) for severe weather in southern Missouri and extending into western Kentucky and Tennessee. The dangerous derecho was sustained for over 13 hours and traveled with an average speed of 58 mph (93 kph). The greatest impacts were felt in portions of Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee.

Weekly Cat Report 4

May 4

Rounds of severe weather were anticipated again on May 4 in association with a quasi-stationary frontal boundary and strengthening low pressure system. In the morning, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) highlighted a region in eastern Oklahoma, southeastern Kansas, southwestern Missouri, and northwestern Arkansas for an Enhanced Risk (level 3 out of 5) for severe weather. A Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) extended south into Texas, and to the north along an axis from central Kansas into western Kentucky and Tennessee.

Early in the day, the northward lifting warm frontal boundary, in association with an eastward moving upper level trough, prompted growth of severe storms across eastern Kansas and extending into Oklahoma, Missouri, and Arkansas, leading to the formation of a second derecho event. The main hazards associated with this event were severe and significant hail (hail greater than or equal to 2.00 inches in diameter), widespread reports of damaging winds, and localized flooding. A high wind report, with maximum gusts approaching 80 mph (130 kph) was recorded in Geary County (Kansas). Most impactful, were hail approaching baseball to softball size, 3.0 to 4.0 inches (7.6 to 10.1 cm) in Benton and Washington Counties (Arkansas). The derecho continued to produce severe weather and damaging winds into western and southern Tennessee and further eastward throughout the evening and overnight hours.

Further west, the deepening surface low moving from Colorado adjacent to the Kansas/Oklahoma borders was the focus for the initiation of a second round of convection in the late afternoon. The environment south of the warm front, in the warm sector, and ahead of an approaching cold front was favorable for the development of severe weather and supercells - focused around eastern Oklahoma, and northwest Arkansas. A supercell originating south of Oklahoma City produced a report of hail approaching 3.00 in (7.6 cm) in Carter County (Oklahoma).

Surface map on May 4 (Source: NOAA)

Weekly Cat Report 5

The graphic below highlights radar-estimated hail swaths from NOAA. Please note that the swaths may be overscaling in some respects; particularly hail identified as less than 1 inch in diameter. The radar algorithm is typically more accurate with larger hail (2 inch or greater) as it is easier to detect in scans.

Event Details

May 3

The May 3 derecho event traveled more than 750 miles in 13 hours resulting in at least one death and three injuries. Overall, no fewer than 241 reports of severe weather occurred this day, a majority of which were associated with the derecho. Of these, 171 reports were for severe and straight-line winds, with at least 100 reports in Tennessee alone. Such concentration of reports is expected during derecho events. Maximum recorded gusts from this system exceeded 75 mph (120 kph), resulting in abundant reports of downed trees and power lines; many of which fell onto residential and commercial property and vehicles.

Weekly Cat Report 6

One tornado was confirmed within the derecho: an EF1 with maximum wind speeds of up to 90 mph (145 kph) that affected the town of Marston in New Madrid County, Missouri. The twister caused damage to several outbuildings in addition to roof damage at an apartments complex and the Marston City Hall. The greatest effects from the event were noted in Tennessee, where high winds resulted in one of the largest power outages on record for the Nashville (Tennessee) metro area. Nashville Electric reported more than 130,000 customers without power following the derecho. A peak wind gust of 71 mph (115 kph) was recorded at the Nashville International Airport.

May 4

The May 4 derecho event consisted of maximum wind gusts reaching up to 80 mph (130 kph), with severe wind reports reaching from Kansas into western South Carolina. In Kansas, a hangar was damaged at the Abilene Municipal Airport in Dickinson County, where the Abilene City Manager conveyed additional reports of storm related impacts to structures. In Missouri, one death was attributed to the storms, resulting from a tree which fell on a home in Bates County.

A rare atmospheric phenomenon, known as ‘wake-low’ was the culprit of an additional round of strong winds for Nashville and central Tennessee, where residents were just beginning to recover from the previous evenings derecho. A ‘wake-low’, as confirmed by the NWS Nashville, is a rare event that forms in the wake of a thunderstorm complex. In this region, the warming induced by vertical pressure differences on sinking air, outweighs the cooling effects of evaporation. This results in air warmer than its surroundings sinking toward the surface level, leaving an area of relatively lower atmospheric pressure above. The subsequent strong pressure gradient is directly associated with powerful surface winds, such as those experienced in the Nashville region, where gusts of 40 to 50 mph were reported.

It has been a rough few months for Nashville and central Tennessee, as many of these same regions were heavily impacted by the March 2-3 tornado outbreak, during which a deadly EF4 tornado was confirmed in Putnam County, as well as an EF3 tornado which severely impacted portions of the Nashville Metro region. As many as 25 people were killed across the state.

Storm damage near Kittrell, TN (Source: NWS Nashville)

Storm damage in Nashville, TN (Source: @JakeRose24)

Weekly Cat Report 7

Overall, there were 305 reports of severe weather on May 4, of which 152 were for hail with 30 for significant hail. The largest hail was recorded in Kansas, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Tennessee. Early in the day, hail approaching baseball to softball size, 3.0 to 4.0 inches (7.6 to 10.1 cm) were reported in Washington and Benton Counties (Arkansas). Later, reports of hail approaching 3.0 inches (7.6 cm) occurred in Decatur County (Tennessee). In addition, hail up to 3.0 inches (7.6 cm) resulted from a supercell tracking south of Oklahoma City toward the Red River.

Financial Loss The latest wave of severe weather – May 2-3 and May 4-5 – is anticipated to result in a financial cost reaching well into the hundreds of millions (USD). Given that most of the damage was wind or hail-related, it is likely that most of these costs will be covered by insurance. The United States is amid a particularly elevated stretch of severe weather since the end of March that has resulted in billions of dollars’ worth of claims payouts.

Taking a deeper dive at the last 20 years of NOAA storm reports (January 1 to May 5), it is found that 2020 unofficially ranks as the fifth-most active year to-date. 2011 and 2017 remain the most active, by far, and were also years with particularly elevated storm-related losses. The biggest takeaway, however, is that storm report frequency does not always directly correlate to losses. The main loss driver ultimately is determined by where the storms actually occur and the density of exposure that is affected.

Weekly Cat Report 8

Strong offshore earthquake rattles southern Puerto Rico The latest in an active sequence of earthquakes in 2020 struck just off the southern coast of Puerto Rico on May 2. The magnitude-5.4 tremor was the 13th earthquake of at least M5.0 magnitude since January and an aftershock of the M6.4 January 7 event. The May 2 event prompted additional damage across parts of Ponce, Peñuelas, and Guayanilla provinces; though not nearly as significant as earlier tremors. Total economic damage from the 2020 earthquake sequence had already minimally exceeded USD1.2 billion; with insured costs into the hundreds of millions.

Seismological Recap The United States Geological Survey (USGS) provided the following official seismological summary of the May 2 event:

“The May 2, 2020, M5.4 earthquake offshore of southwest Puerto Rico occurred as the result of oblique normal faulting at shallow depth. Preliminary focal mechanism solutions indicate faulting occurred as the result of slip on either a steeply dipping plane striking to the northeast, or on a moderately dipping plane striking to the southwest. At the location of this event, the North America plate converges with the Caribbean plate at a rate of about 20 mm/yr to the west-southwest. The location, depth, and focal mechanism solution for the event are consistent with an intraplate tectonic setting, with slip occurring within the lithosphere of the Caribbean plate rather than on the plate boundary interface.

This earthquake occurred near the damaging January 7, 2020 magnitude-6.4 earthquake and is an aftershock of that earthquake. The earthquake is part of a vigorous sequence in the same region that has included hundreds of small earthquakes, beginning in earnest with a M4.7 earthquake late on December 28 and a M5.0 event a few hours later. The sequence has included six events magnitude-5.5 and larger and over a thousand magnitude 3.0 and larger events.

Tectonics in Puerto Rico are dominated by the convergence between the North America and Caribbean plates, with the island being squeezed between the two. To the north of Puerto Rico, North America subducts beneath the Caribbean plate along the Puerto Rico trench. To the south of the island, and south of today’s earthquake, Caribbean plate lithosphere subducts beneath Puerto Rico at the Muertos Trough. This ongoing earthquake sequence is occurring in the offshore deformation zone bound by the Punta Montalva Fault on land and the Guayanilla Canyon offshore.”

The USGS additionally cited that more than 130,000 people felt Strong (MMI VI; 71,000) or Very Strong (MMI VII; 62,000) shaking. A large portion of the affected population were in the city of Ponce. Most of Puerto Rico reportedly felt at least “Weak” or “Light” shaking.

The current earthquake sequence has been pronounced throughout 2020, but actually began in December 2019 as a swarm of foreshocks prior to the main M6.4 event on January 7, 2020.

Weekly Cat Report 9

Event Details Damage from the May 2 event was once again centered in the greater Ponce metro area and nearby Guayanilla. While no fatalities or significant injuries were reported, the aftershock prompted additional impacts to homes, businesses, and other structures. Many of the damaged structures – which included the Ponce Massacre Museum (dedicated to a 1937 civil rights protest) – had been previously weakened by other earthquakes in the sequence. Additional damage to fallen facades and structural cracking was widely cited by local officials. The USGS highlighted that a notable portion of homes and structures in Puerto Rico are highly vulnerable to seismicity; homes often illegally built with unreinforced metal or timber.

The shaking also reportedly spawned a large landslide near Guanica in Ponce Province. The slide collapsed onto a road. Further damage due to cracking was further cited to roads across southern parts of the island. The Electric Energy Authority noted that its EcoElectrica power plant was offline, as thousands of power outages were confirmed. The agency, however, noted that the May 2 event caused further damage to the Costa Sur power plant in Guayanilla, which has been inoperative since January 7. The Puerto Rican Water and Sewage Authority inspected three dams but found no damage.

For reference, the January 7 earthquake (and subsequent aftershocks) had already severely damaged or destroyed more than 3,000 homes. In the town of Yauco alone, 3,200 homes were cited with varying levels of damage. Dozens of historic and modern-built structures in Ponce were also severely impacted.

Financial Loss With damage assessments still ongoing, it remains too preliminary to provide a specific economic or insured loss estimate at this time. The modeled USGS Population Pager estimate indicated at least a 63 percent likelihood of economic costs exceeding USD100 million.

Any additional damage costs will be aggregated with the more than USD1.2 billion in economic impact that the 2020 Puerto Rico earthquake sequence has already incurred. Insurers cited payouts reaching into the hundreds of millions and only further enhancing challenges as the island continues to recover from the devastating impacts of 2017’s Hurricane Maria.

Damage in Ponce, Puerto Rico (Source: Twitter)

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Probability of Economic Losses (million USD) based on PAGER methodology estimate by United States Geological Survey

Weekly Cat Report 10

Update: East Africa Flooding Further heavy rain exacerbated the flood situation in several countries of East Africa in the past week. A particularly deadly few days were recorded in Rwanda, as officials reported at least 73 fatalities from May 1-7 alone. Authorities in Kenya increased the total death toll due to seasonal flooding since mid-April to 194. Tens of thousands were displaced across the region.

Event Details Further intensification of seasonal rains across Eastern Africa over the past week led to continued flooding in multiple countries, including Rwanda, Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, Somalia and Burundi. Positive seasonal rainfall anomalies now exceed 200 millimeters (7.9 inches) in some regions; this was partially connected to sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean, which remain well above normal (see the Weekly SST Anomalies section).

A particularly deadly week occurred in Rwanda. On May 1-2, eight people were killed and at least 100 homes were damaged or destroyed as heavy rains hit central parts of the country. A further wave of floods and landslides occurred on May 6. As of May 7, the country’s Ministry of Emergency Management confirmed 65 fatalities due to this event, including 22 in Gakenke, 18 in Nyabihu and 12 in Muhangadis Districts. Scope of property and infrastructural damage was not available at the time of this writing.

Officials in Kenya confirmed that the total number of fatalities as a result of the ongoing seasonal flood increased to 194; this number covers the

period from mid-April until May 6. On May 4-6 alone, officials noted 30 new fatalities. At least 29 out of 47 counties in Kenya have been affected; displacing around 100,000 people.

Flooding also continued in other countries. More than 5,000 people were displaced by floods in Uganda since May 1, particularly in Western and Northern regions. At least 107,000 people were estimated to be displaced in Ethiopia so far, particularly in Somali, Afar, SNNP, Dire Dawa and Harari regions. Floods have been affecting lower parts of Shabelle River basin in Somalia, however, rains have generally been seen as favorable for local agriculture.

CHIRPS preliminary rainfall anomalies (1981-2010 normal), March 1 – April 30, 2020 (Source: FEWS NET/USGS)

Weekly Cat Report 11

Natural Catastrophes: In Brief Flooding (Indonesia) Heavy rains resulted in severe flooding and landslides in the Bandung Regency in West Java of Indonesia on April 30. The Local Disaster Management Office (BNPB) confirmed nearly 22,000 inundated homes, along with 96 places of worship, and 46 schools. The worst affected districts were Dayeuhkolot, Baleendah, Arjasari, Bojongsoang, and Banjaran; with water reaching depth of 2 meters in some places. More than 2,000 people were evacuated. Torrential rain also resulted in flash flooding in the parts of Sumatra from April 30 to May 2, damaging crops, homes, and public infrastructure, with Asahan and Sarolangun Regencies among the worst affected and hundreds of homes inundated. Further effects were felt in West Sulawesi Province on May 5. According to BNPB, 3 people were killed while 4 sustained severe injuries as a result of a landslide.

Flooding (Afghanistan) Torrential rains prompted flash floods in Baghlan province located in northern Afghanistan on May 2, resulting in 4 fatalities and damage to buildings and crops. Tala Wa Barfak district in the Baghlan province was noted to be worst affected. The assessment of the damage is still ongoing. Heavy rains resulted in flash flooding in the Samangan province on May 5. According to local media reports, at least 1,100 homes were damaged or destroyed. Hundreds of hectares of agricultural land washed away and at least 300 cattle were killed.

Severe Weather (Spain) Parts of northern Spain were affected by strong thunderstorms along an advancing cold front on May 4. Most notable effects were due to strong winds in Galicia, additional impacts were felt due to large hail and heavy rains, which resulted in isolated landslide incidents. Strongest gusts were recorded at A Pontenova in Lugo with 146 kph (91 mph) and in Carballeda de Valdeorras in Ourense with 136 kph (85 mph). Wind-related property damage was reported from the southern part of the Lugo Province, for example in Monforte de Lemos (with a roof of a secondary school partially destroyed). Dozens of damage reports in Ourense Province came from the Monterrei region. Verín was also notably affected; damage reports included a detachment of a roof on a nine-story residential building. Additionally, emergency services responded to more than 240 incidents, mainly due to treefalls, power outages and some traffic disruption.

Severe Weather (Thailand) Severe weather, including strong winds and thunderstorms, hit Nakhon Ratchasima Province in the central Thailand on May 4. According to the media reports, many buildings along with a hospital sustained severe damage, and at least 20 people were injured in the event. Officials continue to investigate the financial cost.

Wildfire (United States) As of May 7, wildfires are ongoing in Escambia, Walton, and Santa Rosa Counties in the Florida panhandle. Fueled by high winds and low humidity, the fires have prompted the evacuation of more than 1,100 people and burned at least 2,500 acres. In Walton County, 500 people were evacuated, multiple structures impacted, and at least 575 acres burned. In Santa Rosa County, the larger, Five Mile Swamp Fire is now affecting minimally 2,000 acres. According to the Florida Forest Service, this wildfire grew over 10 times in size on May 6, the result of dry conditions combined with winds gusting beyond 20 mph (32 kph). This wildfire prompted additional evacuation orders, the closure of several roadways, including portions of I-10, and has already impacted multiple structures. This situation is rapidly evolving, and estimated losses are being evaluated at this time.

Weekly Cat Report 12

Global Temperature Anomaly Forecast

Source: Climate Reanalyzer, Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, USA

Weekly Cat Report 13

Global Precipitation Forecast

Source: Climate Reanalyzer, Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, USA

Weekly Cat Report 14

Weekly Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies (°C)

The SST anomalies are produced by subtracting the long-term mean SST (for that location in that time of year) from the current value. This product with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degree (50 kilometers) is based on NOAA/NESDIS operational daily global 5 kilometer Geo-polar Blended Night-only SST Analysis. The analysis uses satellite data produced by AVHRR radiometer.

Select Current Global SSTs and Anomalies Location of Buoy Temp (°C) Departure from Last Year (°C)

Eastern Pacific Ocean (1,020 miles SW of San Salvador, El Salvador) 26.1 +0.7

Niño3.4 region (2°N latitude, 155°W longitude) 26.7 -1.5

Western Pacific Ocean (700 miles NNW of Honiara, Solomon Islands) 30.3 +0.6

Sources: ESRL, NOAA, NEIS, National Data Buoy Center

Weekly Cat Report 15

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ENSO-neutral conditions are currently present. NOAA notes that there is a roughly 60 percent chance of neutral conditions lingering through the Northern Hemisphere (boreal) summer months. The agency further states it is more than likely that such conditions will last through the boreal autumn.

El Niño refers to the above-average sea-surface temperatures (+0.5°C) that periodically develop across the east-central equatorial Pacific. It represents the warm phase of the ENSO cycle. La Niña refers to the periodic cooling of sea-surface temperatures (-0.5°C) across the east-central equatorial Pacific. It represents the cold phase of the ENSO cycle.

El Niño and La Niña episodes typically last nine to 12 months, but some prolonged events may last for years. While their frequency can be quite irregular, El Niño and La Niña events occur on average every two to seven years. Typically, El Niño occurs more frequently than La Niña.

ENSO-neutral refers to those periods when neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions are present. These periods often coincide with the transition between El Niño and La Niña events. During ENSO-neutral periods the ocean temperatures, tropical rainfall patterns, and atmospheric winds over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are near the long-term average.

El Niño (La Niña) is a phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean characterized by a five consecutive 3-month running mean of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region that is above the threshold of +0.5°C (-0.5°C). This standard of measure is known as the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI).

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Source: NOAA

Weekly Cat Report 16

Global Tropics Outlook

Source: Climate Prediction Center

Weekly Cat Report 17

Current Tropical Systems

Location and Intensity Information Name* Location Winds Storm Reference from Land Motion**

* TD = Tropical Depression, TS = Tropical Storm, HU = Hurricane, TY = Typhoon, STY = Super Typhoon, CY = Cyclone ** N = North, S = South, E = East, W = West, NW = Northwest, NE = Northeast, SE = Southeast, SW = Southwest Sources: National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Weekly Cat Report 18

Global Earthquake Activity (≥M4.0): May 1-7

Significant EQ Location and Magnitude (≥M6.0) Information Date (UTC) Location Magnitude Depth Epicenter

05/02/2020 34.20°N, 25.71°E 6.6 17 km 89 kilometers (55 miles) S of Ierapetra, Greece

05/06/2020 6.79°S, 129.86°E 6.8 107 km 20 kilometers (12 miles) NW of Saumlaki, Indonesia

05/07/2020 4.45°S, 154.71°E 6.1 466 km 18 kilometers (11 miles) E of Taron, Papua New Guinea

Source: United States Geological Survey

Weekly Cat Report 19

U.S. Weather Threat Outlook

Potential Threats An anomalous upper-level trough and surface high pressure system will result in much below

normal temperatures for the eastern half of the country this weekend and lingering into early next week. Widespread late season frost or freeze warnings are expected across portions of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and Northeast. Some localities may experience near record daily minimum temperatures. Conditions are anticipated to moderate throughout the week.

A persistent upper level ridge will result in much above normal temperatures for the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest from May 10-11. A low-pressure system will bring widespread and welcome rain from May 11-12, with the greatest impacts around northwestern California and southwestern Oregon.

A cold front reaching across the Gulf of Mexico is anticipated to stall near the Florida Keys, bringing locally heavy rainfall to southern portions of the Florida peninsula from May 10-13.

Rain and thunderstorms spreading northeastward from the Plains into the Midwest will bring increased chances for heavy rain between May 11-14.

Weekly Cat Report 20

U.S. Wildfire: Significant Fire Risk Outlook & Activity The National Interagency Fire Center has highlighted an extended risk of elevated wildfire conditions across parts of the Desert Southwest, Plains, Southeast, and the Midwest into the second week of May. One area of focus will be in the Desert Southwest and the southern Plains as dry and windy conditions persist and enhance the fire risk.

Annual YTD Wildfire Comparison: May 7* Year Number of Fires Acres Burned Acres Burned Per Fire

2016 16,737 1,478,988 88.37

2017 21,061 2,019,135 95.87

2018 19,788 1,444,860 73.02

2019 11,443 224,515 19.62

2020 13,054 266,321 20.40

10-Year Average (2010-2019) 18,280 916,903 50.16

*Last available update from NIFC Source: National Interagency Fire Center

Top 5 Most Acres Burned by State: May 7 State Number of Fires Acres Burned Acres Burned Per Fire

Oklahoma 525 74,801 2.85

Texas 926 48,996 16.15

Florida 1,210 31,766 29.71

Kansas 34 21,796 6.43

Mississippi 345 17,006 1.35

Source: National Interagency Fire Center

Weekly Cat Report 21

Current U.S. Streamflow Status

A ≥99th percentile indicates that estimated streamflow is greater than the 99th percentile for all days of the year. This methodology also applies for the other two categories. A steam in a state of severe drought has 7-day average streamflow of less than or equal to the 5th percentile for this day of the year. Moderate drought indicates that estimated 7-day streamflow is between the 6th and 9th percentile for this day of the year and ‘below normal’ state is between 10th and 24th percentile.

Top 5 Rivers Currently Nearing or Exceeding Flood Stage Location Flood Stage (ft) Current Stage (ft) % of Full Capacity

Shavers Fork Creek at Bemis, West Virginia 5.00 7.72 154%

Altamaha River near Charlotteville, Georgia 13.00 19.00 146%

Altamaha River near Baxley, Georgia 12.99 18.59 143%

James River at Columbia, South Dakota 13.00 17.73 136%

James River at Ashton, South Dakota 13.00 17.34 133%

Source: United States Geological Survey

Weekly Cat Report 22

Source Information Hail & damaging winds bring more U.S. storm damage Sunday storm activity indicates rare ‘derecho’ swept through Nashville, Middle Tennessee, The Tennessean More than 100k remain without power in Nashville after storm wallops Tennessee, USA Today A deadly derecho slammed Nashville with 70 mph winds Sunday, snapping trees and knocking out power, The Washington Post Area counties pelted by large hail, damaging winds, KVOE TV Morning storms rip through parts of central, northern Kansas; KWCH-TV U.S. National Weather Service U.S. Storm Prediction Center

Strong offshore earthquake rattles southern Puerto Rico Earthquake of 5.4 magnitude rattles Puerto Rico, damages buildings in city of Ponce, CNN Historic Puerto Rico museum damaged by 5.5 magnitude earthquake, Global News The government is now managing the pandemic response and the damage caused by a 5.4 magnitude earthquake, El Nuevo Dia United States Geological Survey

Update: East Africa Flooding United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) Famine Early Warning Systems Network Ministry of Emergency Management, Rwanda Government of Kenya

Natural Catastrophes: In Brief Floodlist European Severe Weather Database BNPB, Indonesia Walton County Fire Rescue Florida Forest Service Santa Rosa County Emergency Management

Weekly Cat Report 23

Contact Information Steve Bowen Director & Meteorologist Head of Catastrophe Insight Impact Forecasting Aon steven.bowen@aon.com Michal Lörinc Senior Catastrophe Analyst Impact Forecasting Aon michal.lorinc@aon.com

Weekly Cat Report 24

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