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1 VEYSEL KAYA/SUNSEEDMAN, www.sunseedman.com, [email protected]
THE EXPERT SUPPORT ON REPORTING, ANALYSES, CONSULTING AND BROKERAGE AS PER 20-YEAR SECTOR EXPERIENCE
WEEKLY PANORAMA 22 JUNE 2018
PAGE 2 – USD/TL PARITY
PAGE 3 – EUR/USD PARITY
PAGE 4 – PETROL/CRUDE
PAGE 5 – SUNSEED LOCAL MARKETS
PAGE 6 – SUNSEED FOREIGN MARKETS
PAGE 7 – SUNOIL/SUNMEAL LOCAL MARKETS
PAGE 8 – SUNOIL FOREIGN MARKETS
PAGE 9 – SOY COMPLEX MARKETS
PAGE 10 – RAPESEED/CANOLA COMPLEX MARKETS
PAGE 11 – PALM OIL MARKETS
PAGE 12 – WEATHER REPORT
QUOTE OF THE WEEK: When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on... Thomas JEFFERSON
2 VEYSEL KAYA/SUNSEEDMAN, www.sunseedman.com, [email protected]
THE EXPERT SUPPORT ON REPORTING, ANALYSES, CONSULTING AND BROKERAGE AS PER 20-YEAR SECTOR EXPERIENCE
SOURCE : INO
USD/TL PARITY
Weekly Summary: While the parity made an entry to the week with 4.7272 level, it moved at 4.6730 –
4.7763 range and now around 4.74 level.
Bullish Fundementals: Nuisance coup restorations will take longer time! Unfortunately, the bloody terror
( lots of martyries and innocent citizens ) is still underway. Besides, geopolitical troubles ( esp. on Syria and
Iraq ) are kept. Dollar is still the strongest currency against others including Turkish Lira. BREXIT is also quite
risky since EU is the biggest export destination of Turkey. Credit note has been downgraded ( so many critics
also recently ). Election risks till 24 June 2018 even later. Tension in btw TR & EU, the main export destination. Huge Current Account Deficit still ( 57 Mlrd USD ). Conflicts in btw USA and TR on Syria and Quds/Jerusalem.
Bearish Fundementals: Turkish Central Bank will prefer tight conditions and take further new measures.
Turkish Central Bank may also increase the interest rates. Reportedly still hot Money inflows as safety port
from the neighboors. Profit-takings likely. Social media/Government support ( TL based tenders ) for Turkish
Lira! The markets do not prefer stronger Dollar. More tourists potential since Turkey becomes the cheapest
destinations ( record Jan/May18 visits ).
Our Projection: ?, The direction is TOTALLY BULLISH as long as it stays over critical and psycho 4.5
level. However, 4.5 – 5.0 range is more likely in near term! Let’s watch also political/geopolitical as well as
financial developments closely. The developments in btw USA and TR are really so crucial. Earlier elections
by 24 June are really so important.
3 VEYSEL KAYA/SUNSEEDMAN, www.sunseedman.com, [email protected]
THE EXPERT SUPPORT ON REPORTING, ANALYSES, CONSULTING AND BROKERAGE AS PER 20-YEAR SECTOR EXPERIENCE
SOURCE : INO
EURO/USD PARITY
Weekly Summary: Following 1.1609 level entry to the week, the parity moved at 1.1509 – 1.1646 range
within the week and now moves around 1.1625 level.
Bullish Fundementals: Fed and the markets may prefer cautious mode with TRUMP! No interest rate cut
by ECB at all! EU leaders still give the unity messages after BREXIT! Technical correction is likely. Till Sep18, ECB
has winded down ( 30 Mlrd EUR/month, by Sep/Dec18, 15 Mlrd EUR, after 2019, nope ) its stimulus in response
to accelerating growth in EUROZONE. MERKEL and SDP have agreed on GREAT COALITON with the approval
SPD voters as well ( but some cracks on the immigrant policies recently ).
Bearish Fundementals: UK has already performed BREXIT process. Low-interest rate policy will be kept. In
EUROZONE, albeit huge financial supports, still mixed economical figures have been releasing, mainly by
Germany, the locomotive. The terror/refugee/safety crisis are underway. Banking crisis in Italy & Spain ( even
Germany ) is still troublesome. Greece may also appear suddenly! Turkey may use refugee card soon!
Confusing political Outlook in Italy and Spain! Catalonia Liberilization in Spain with possible domino effects!
Trade wars.
Our Projection: ?, We suppose that Technical chart implies STEADY to SLIGHTLY LOWER trends being
below critical 1.20 level.
4 VEYSEL KAYA/SUNSEEDMAN, www.sunseedman.com, [email protected]
THE EXPERT SUPPORT ON REPORTING, ANALYSES, CONSULTING AND BROKERAGE AS PER 20-YEAR SECTOR EXPERIENCE
SOURCE : INO
PETROL/CRUDE
Weekly Summary: Brent Crude made an entry to the week with 73.06 $/Barrel and moved at 72.45 –
75.86 $/Barrel range within the week. Now, it moves around 73.90 $/Barrel as well.
Bullish Fundementals: Speculative funds ( new-price balloons! ) are possible!
Geopolitical/weather/terror/wildfire risks and so output disruptions still go on! OPEC/Non-OPEC members are
performing output cut! USA-Iran tension ( Increasing demonstrations. Renewal of sanctions ??? Withdrawal
from Nuke Deal ??? ). USA vs Middle East tension! Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Israel/Jerusalem are also crucial!
War tam-tams in Syria. Trade wars ( esp in btw USA and China ).
Bearish Fundementals: Record stocks still exist in USA nowadays. There are economical troubles in
China, the second Crude consumer as well as in Japan, the third Crude consumer. With the removal of
sanctions, Iran has been non-stop pumping Crude to worldwide markets ( sustainable ??? ). Global
production is also over demand still. US Shale Gas output and Drilling Rigs No may further recover soon.
Doubts somehow on the applicability/sufficiency/sustainability of such output cut ( possible some output
recoveries in this OPEC meeting ). Stronger Dollar. TRUMP/KIM summit was favorable.
Our Projection: ?, OVER 70 $/Barrel level of BRENT still implies UPWARD trend! Nevertheless, let’s
watch the output applications closely ( OPEC meeting by today n tomorrow ). Let’s also watch geopolitical
developments in Middle-East especially. TRUMP is also important! USA-Iran tension ( also demonstrations ) is
also crucial! Let’s also do not disclude Saudi Arabia/Yemen/Israel! War tam-tams in Syria ???
5 VEYSEL KAYA/SUNSEEDMAN, www.sunseedman.com, [email protected]
THE EXPERT SUPPORT ON REPORTING, ANALYSES, CONSULTING AND BROKERAGE AS PER 20-YEAR SECTOR EXPERIENCE
SOURCE : SUNSEEDMAN
SUNSEED LOCAL MARKETS
Weekly Summary: Earlier region of Cukurova harvestings may be initiated in 2 weeks. Lower acreages
of 60 kha vs 70 kmt, but current favorable Outlook may partly compensate the gap ( 140 – 150 kmt vs 175 ).
The Outlook in Thrace and Anatolia is mixed We also forecast lower national acreage ( 600 vs 675 kha of
17/18 ) and new-crop size ( 1.350 – 1.450 vs 1.625 of 17/18 ). Lower import-duties till 1 Aug at least ( 13% vs
27%, ie 58.5 vs 121.5 $/mt with 450 $/mt of Reference Price ).
Bullish Fundementals: Even 425 $/mt CIF Marmara ( bid ) import cost is even around 2.210 TL/mt for 40
basis ( 435, 2.255 & 440, 2.275 of sellers ). Nil local old-crop supplies ( so limited Black Sea ones as well ).
Solid/record local Sunmeal prices. Well-rebounded USD/TL parity in recent days/weeks. Weather risks for
Summer 2018.
Bearish Fundementals: There are financial troubles and refined shelf adulterations. Global new-crop
may be better than 17/18 levels ( 49.5 – 50 Mln T vs 48.65 ). There’s a dizziness/confusion still in the markets!
USD/TL is so volatile to take positions. Virtually over BSea new-crop plantings. Underway Rapeseed
harvestings locally. Only 2 weeks ahead for Cukurova new-crop. Import-duty cuts ( 13% vs 27 till 1 Aug ).
Our Projection: ?, With current conditions, Cukurova new-crop, 40 oil/2-3 admixture/6-8 moisture
may be at 2.100 +/- 50 range. Legislation, purchasing appetite of Crushers and selling interest of farmers,
USD/TL parity as well as CIF prices will be crucial.
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
2016/17 & 2017/18 SEASONS LOCAL SUNSEED PRICES
40% BASIS, TL/mt
6 VEYSEL KAYA/SUNSEEDMAN, www.sunseedman.com, [email protected]
THE EXPERT SUPPORT ON REPORTING, ANALYSES, CONSULTING AND BROKERAGE AS PER 20-YEAR SECTOR EXPERIENCE
SOURCE : SUNSEEDMAN
SUNSEED FOREIGN MARKETS
Weekly Summary: In Constanza/Varna, the heart of Sunseed biz in Black Sea, July18 FOB prices were
almost unspoken. Refer to CIF Marmara, for so limited supplies, July18 seller prices were mostly at 435 - 440
$/mt vs 420 - 425 $/mt of bids. Turkish legislation and volatile/record USD/TL parity have been confusing of
Turkish crushers.
Bullish Fundementals: All BSea countries are increasing their crushings to create added-value! No Argie
option with pesticide troubles. Limited exportable old-crop supplies in Black Sea. Recent huge
appreciations in Sunmeal prices promote more crushings and create stiff competition in btw exporters and
crushers. Weather risks for Black Sea and globally.
Bearish Fundementals: UA/RU achieve huge crushings, so they are available to offer cheaper Sunoil (
as well as Sunmeal ) prices by creating zero/minus crushing margins for other countries. There are many
global financial turmoils and uncertainties. Argentinian new-crop harvestings are totally over. There are
trade wars globally. Some depreciations in Soybean prices recently. Better global new-crop size prospectcs
under normal Summer18 weather conditions.
Our Projection: ?, 430 $/mt +/- 10 CIF Marmara prices for old-crop and 385 +/- 10 $/mt for new-
crop are likely. But let’s watch also weather conditions, Turkish buying interest/legislation and global
oilseeds/vegoils and financial markets! Especially BSea weather conditions during growings and harvestings
are also crucial!
360
380
400
420
440
460
2016/17 & 2017/18 SEASONS SUNSEED IMPORT PRICESCIF MARMARA, $/MT
7 VEYSEL KAYA/SUNSEEDMAN, www.sunseedman.com, [email protected]
THE EXPERT SUPPORT ON REPORTING, ANALYSES, CONSULTING AND BROKERAGE AS PER 20-YEAR SECTOR EXPERIENCE
SOURCE : SUNSEEDMAN
SUNOIL/SUNMEAL LOCAL MARKETS
Weekly Summary: In Thrace/Anatolia, we lastly noticed the Crude Sunoil prices of around 950 +/- 25
USD/mt EXW ( Crushers are not willing to sell as TL/mt due to so volatile USD/TL parity ). Sunmeal prices for
26/28 P were also around 1.150 +/- 25 TL/mt EXW Thrace.
Bullish Fundementals: Less Rapeoil and Safoil adulterations with new legislation by implying more Sunoil
demands locally. The Sunoil cost from imported Sunoil is at least 4.745 TL/mt. Well-appreciated USD/TL parity.
Almost nil cheaper local supplies remained. Tourism season is underway with more demands.
Bearish Fundementals: Real/fair market conditions still do not unfortunately work due to the
adulterations as well as illegal/unethical leakages of imported Sunoil for domestic market. Solid global
seasonal Sunoil output is underway! Following the arrestments/detainments/trustees of major market
players after recent nuisance coup attempt, the buyer companies became quite limited! There’s a
dizziness/confusion still in the markets! Government is trying to curb the inflation rate in foodstuffies. Import-
duty cut in Sunseed ( 13% vs 27 ) and Crude Sunoil ( 23% vs 36 ). Solid/RECORD Sunmeal by lessening the
loadings on the shoulders of Sunoil. Private Label ( 25.95 TL/5 L PET by converting at 4.150 TL/mt EXW of Crude
Sunoil ) creates somehow pressure. Resumption of duty-free Bosnian Sunoil imports. The Sunoil cost from
even 440 $/mt CIF Marmara of seller is around 4.430 TL/mt.
Our Projection: ??, With current conjoncture, 950 +/- 25 USD/mt level of Crude Sunoil prices seem
quite likely for local ( in Thrace mostly ) in near-term. However, Especially, USD/TL parity and
Sunseed/Sunmeal local/international prices will determine actual markets. 26/28 P SFM prices, may also
stay solid with record USD/TL and also solid other feedstuffies! Nevertheless, Feeders and import Sunmeal
prices as well as USD/TL parity should be also watched closely!
3400
3600
3800
4000
4200
4400
4600
4800
5000
2016/17 & 2017/18 SEASONS LOCAL CRUDE SUNOIL PRICESEXW THRACE, TL/MT
8 VEYSEL KAYA/SUNSEEDMAN, www.sunseedman.com, [email protected]
THE EXPERT SUPPORT ON REPORTING, ANALYSES, CONSULTING AND BROKERAGE AS PER 20-YEAR SECTOR EXPERIENCE
SOURCE : SUNSEEDMAN
SUNOIL FOREIGN MARKETS
Weekly Summary: Sunoil July 2018 delivery FOB Black Sea prices were SLIGHTLY LOWER ( 5 ) within
the week and now move as 720 - 725 $/mt of buyers vs 730 - 740 $/mt of sellers for FOB UA ( 705 - 715 vs
720 - 730 FOB RU as well ).
Bullish Fundementals: Weather risks of Asian Palmoil and SAM Soyoil may be supportive. Petrol is solid
still. Relatively weaker Grivna and Ruble ( esp ) will promote more exports! Lower Black Sea old-crop
crushable supplies seasonally.
Bearish Fundementals: UA/RU Sunoil productions are still solid somehow. Record Palmoil production
potential and weaker prices will also influence Sunoil. Weaker Soyoil recently. There are global economical
risks! ARG new- Sunseed harvestings are totally over. Premiums to be resumed of Sunoil may lessen the
demands. 35% import-duty in India. More crushings with better Sunmeal prices.
Our Projection: ??, Sunoil crop Premium vs Soyoil and RBD Palmoil may be positive still. At this point,
725 +/- 15 $/mt FOB Black Sea ( esp. Russian ) prices are quite likely. Nevertheless, if other vegoils ( Soy,
Palm, Rape etc ) keep climbing/sliding, Sunoil may also partly accompany to this trend. USD/RUB and
USD/UAH parities are also quite crucial! Farmer Sales interests, Sunseed and Sunmeal prices are also so
important! Do not forget Petrol and weather conditions as well! Black Sea Summer18 weather
conditions???
725
745
765
785
805
825
845
2016/17 & 2017/18 SEASONS UA CRUDE SUNOIL PRICECIF MARMARA, $/MT
9 VEYSEL KAYA/SUNSEEDMAN, www.sunseedman.com, [email protected]
THE EXPERT SUPPORT ON REPORTING, ANALYSES, CONSULTING AND BROKERAGE AS PER 20-YEAR SECTOR EXPERIENCE
SOURCE : INO
SOY COMPLEX MARKETS
Weekly Summary: Soy Complex experienced DEPRECIATED mode for FOB cash prices within the week,
so Soybean, SoyMeal and Soyoil have drawn, 10 $/mt, 10 $/mt, and 5 $/mt of the performances
respectively.
Bullish Fundementals: Huge speculative funds! New significant US biodiesel mandates. Extra taxes for
biodiesel imports from Argie and Indonesia. EPA court ruling. Possible global weather anomalies/risks
during plantings, growings and harvestings, especially in USA. China somehow keeps up the purchasings
at record levels. Crude is so solid. Not-promising farmer sales interests! There are logistics/strike troubles in
South America. ARG suffered less acreage ( at least 5% ) and AROUND 20 Mln T of new-crop losses with
recent drier weather conditions. Reportedly lower acreage for USA during Spring18 by USDA. Possible
technical correction after recent huge setbacks.
Bearish Fundementals: China, the biggest destination, has economical troubles. BREXIT jitters and
global economical/geopolical risks are kept. Abundant global supplies still. Record US old-crop size. Totally
over BRA Soy harvestings with record new-crop size. Virtually over ARG Soy harvestings ( with 98% national
pace ). Virtually over US new-crop plantings ( with 98% national pace ). TRUMP uncertainty/trade wars,
especially in btw USA and China ( leader importer ). Mostly favourable weather in USA recently.
Our Projection: ?, Right now, huge global supplies still, BREXIT, TRUMP’s uncertainty and Chinese
angst/trade wars may be LOSER vs weather risks globally and USA, lower farmer sales, logistics troubles,
strike risks and so solid Crude. Neverthless, weather conditions, esp. in USA, will be the main determinant
soon. Besides, Fed and TRUMP’s policies and so Dollar Index as well as Chinese economical Outlook are
also important. 900 +/- 25 range is reasonable for CBOT Soy! Please also pay attention to BREXIT and
Chinese demand/trade war policies!
10 VEYSEL KAYA/SUNSEEDMAN, www.sunseedman.com, [email protected]
THE EXPERT SUPPORT ON REPORTING, ANALYSES, CONSULTING AND BROKERAGE AS PER 20-YEAR SECTOR EXPERIENCE
SOURCE : BARCHART
RAPESEED/CANOLA COMPLEX MARKETS
Weekly Summary: French MATIF Rapeseeds were STEADY to SLIGHTLY LOWER as EUR/mt within the week,
BUT Rotterdam Rape Oil was MOSTLY STRONGER. In Turkey, CIF Marmara Rapeseed new-crop prices were
at 415 - 425 $/mt and new-crop Rapeoil and Rapemeal prices are 825 - 850 $/mt and 300 +/- 10 $/mt
respectively. Local Rapeseed harvestings are underway with new-crop prices of 425 – 450 $/mt.
Bullish Fundementals: Currently so solid Crude. Weather risks globally! Lower new-crop size forecasts for
EU-28. Easier EUR/USD parity nowadays. Stronger Crusher purchasing interest locally. Nowadays, Chinese
buying appetite globally.
Bearish Fundementals: Global economical risks make pressure. BREXIT is confusing. Reference Price by
Turkey ( 1.000 x 0.10 = 100 $/mt of duty ). Lower import duties for ARG biodiesel by implying probably lower
demands for EU Rapeoil. Turkish 2018/2019 new-crop may be around 125 kmt vs 45 of 17/18. Weaker
Soybean prices in recent days/weeks.
Our Projection: ??, Weather risks and partly solid Crude may be BALANCED vs ARG biodiesel, BREXIT,
partly promising new-crop prospects, global economical risks. Please pay attention to weather conditions
as well as Crude! Do not forget also Chinese policies!
11 VEYSEL KAYA/SUNSEEDMAN, www.sunseedman.com, [email protected]
THE EXPERT SUPPORT ON REPORTING, ANALYSES, CONSULTING AND BROKERAGE AS PER 20-YEAR SECTOR EXPERIENCE
SOURCE : SUNSEEDMAN
PALM OIL MARKETS
Weekly Summary: Malaysian Palmoil markets were DEPRECIATED ( 20 $/mt ) within the week. Now, it
moves around 590 $/mt for RBD Palmoil FOB Malaysia July 2018 shipment.
Bullish Fundementals: El-Nino created below-average yields with drier conditions in Malaysia
especially. Weaker Ringgit ( still the weakest since 1998 ) promotes Palmoil exports. More supplies may be
shifted to biodiesel in Malaysia and Indonesia ( especially albeit US import-duty ). So solid Crude still. Lower
output. Prices try to bottom out. India hiked the import-duties of alternative vegoils.
Bearish Fundementals: There are overall demand anxieties globally, esp. China and EU. Some
beneficial rains nowadays in MLY/IND. Carcinogen accusations and Palmoil biodiesel ban ( for 2020 even
2030 programme ) in Europe. Albeit some drops, still huge stocks ( 2.17 Mln T by end-May18 ). % 5 export tax resumption by Malaysian Government. Sluggish exports ( 1-20 Jun18, AMSPEC/SGS, 4/10% ). Partly
sluggish Soyoil nowadays. Trade wars globally, esp. in btw USA and China.
Our Projection: ??, Global weather risks, lower output weaker Ringgit, well-solid Crude and Indian
duty hike for other vegoils may be BALANCED vs still huge stocks, sluggish exports and global economical
risks as well as sluggish Soyoil and so RBD Palm Oil FOB Malaysia prices may move at 575 - 625 $/mt range.
In the future; Crude, Soyoil, global economical conditions ( esp. India, China and EU ) and weather
conditions ( La-Nina, El-Nino etc ) will determine the direction. Attention for BREXIT and TRUMP’s policies!
575600625650675700725750775800
04
Ju
ly 2
016
25
Ju
ly 2
016
08
Au
gust
201
6
31
Au
gust
201
6
19
Se
pte
mb
er 2
016
03
Oct
ob
er
20
16
24
Oct
ob
er 2
01
6
11
No
vem
ber
20
16
30
No
vem
ber
20
16
22
Dec
emb
er
201
6
09
Jan
uar
y 2
017
26
Jan
uar
y 2
017
10
Fe
bru
ary
201
7
28
Fe
bru
ary
201
7
16
Mar
ch 2
017
03
Ap
ril 2
017
20
Ap
ril 2
017
11
May
201
7
31
May
201
7
22
Jun
e 2
017
13
Ju
ly 2
017
31
Ju
ly 2
017
17
Au
gust
201
7
04
Se
pte
mb
er 2
017
21
Sep
tem
ber
20
17
09
Oct
ob
er 2
01
7
31
Oct
ob
er 2
01
7
16
No
vem
ber
20
17
07
Dec
emb
er 2
017
28
De
cem
ber
20
17
11
Jan
uar
y 2
018
02
Fe
bru
ary
201
8
22
Fe
bru
ary
201
8
09
Mar
ch 2
018
30
Mar
ch 2
018
19
Ap
ril 2
018
03
May
201
8
24
May
201
8
11
Ju
ne
201
8
2016/17 & 2017/18 SEASONS MALAYSIAN RBD PALM OIL
FOB, $/MT
12 VEYSEL KAYA/SUNSEEDMAN, www.sunseedman.com, [email protected]
THE EXPERT SUPPORT ON REPORTING, ANALYSES, CONSULTING AND BROKERAGE AS PER 20-YEAR SECTOR EXPERIENCE
BLACK SEA & SOUTH-EAST ASIA & USA 1-WEEK PRECIPITATION MAP ( SOURCE: NOAA )
In Black Sea; following recent limited locally short-time rainy and warmer conditions, once
partly rainy and warmer weather conditions are likely soon. Sunflower new-crop plantings
are virtually over, but the Outlook of the plants are not so promising indeed. Winter crops
harvestings are getting accelerated.
In Thrace; following recent warmer and mostly drier weather conditions, partly rainy, and
warmer conditions are likely soon! Sunflower plantings are totally over, but the Outlook is not
so promising ( beneficial rains are strictly needed asap ). Winter crop harvestings are
underway with 30 – 50% less yields vs record 17/18 season ones.
In South Asia; in addition to recent beneficial rain ones, esp. in Indonesia and Malaysia,
further beneficial rains are likely for Palm Oil areas. In India; some local rains soon are likely
as well!
In USA; Sunflower, Corn and Soy plantings are virtually over. Last Outlook of the plants are
mostly promising following recent beneficial rains. Soon also mostly favorable weather
conditions are likely ( but partly higher temperatures soon ).
BY MONDAY, LET’S KEEP UP OUR BLACK SEA SUN COMPLEX MONTHLY S&D UPDATE MARATHON
WITH ROMANIA…
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WEATHER REPORT