week runs from sunday to saturday ireland: predictions · 2020. 9. 23. · ireland modelled data:...

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HAB Bulletin [status of harmful and toxic algae] Week runs from Sunday to Saturday Ireland: Predictions ASP event: Moderate to high- slow continued increase. AZP event: Low in general, no clear trend. DSP event: High SW, W, NW. Moderate all remaining areas , dropping slowly. PSP event: Moderate, SW site specific, decreasing . Low elsewhere. ASP: 8 week steady slow upward trend - Moderate to higher caution as cell levels in localised sites are continuously slowly and steadily increasing. Related toxins, below regulatory limits , occurring around entire Western coastline, related to environmental suitable conditions and exact species present. AZP: Low levels of potential problematic cells in general throughout coastline. Continued negligible levels of toxins present in samples tested ,with no clear trend. This species has caused sudden acute issues in the past and rarely presents any reliable trends. DSP: Continued high caution in affected areas as warned . Environmental conditions and cell levels still suitable for late seasonal issues. High SW and W, now experiencing closures as indicated, and moderate throughout all coastline. Full caution advised during this time until environmental conditions change and cell levels consistently drop off. PSP: Moderate SW (specific sites),as a precaution but decreasing trend established – 4 weeks stable decrease, see specific sites. Suitable environmental conditions decreasing but water temperatures still high. Adjacent sites’ caution also advised. Low elsewhere. Alexandrium cells can occur in both toxic and nontoxic forms. Blooms: Still High :Currently bloom levels of multiple species are still occurring in localised areas. Both beneficial and detrimental blooms may occur in areas of good growth and suitable environmental conditions. Transient wind driven blooms of some species may temporarily accumulate on shores. While heavy rainfall may also cause visual changes, any unusual water discoloration should always be noted and regional labs contacted if concerned /regarding possible need for additional sampling. All feedback is welcome at [email protected] NMP Current closures ASP AZP DSP PSP 0 0 5 0 Week 39: September 20 th 26 th 2020 Based on sites tested

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Page 1: Week runs from Sunday to Saturday Ireland: Predictions · 2020. 9. 23. · Ireland modelled data: Estimated Water Pathway Week runs from Sunday to Saturday Ireland modelled data:

HAB Bulletin [status of harmful and toxic algae]

Week runs from Sunday to Saturday

Ireland: Predictions

ASP event: Moderate to high- slow continued increase.AZP event: Low in general, no clear trend.

DSP event: High SW, W, NW. Moderate all remaining areas , dropping slowly.

PSP event: Moderate, SW site specific, decreasing . Low elsewhere.

ASP: 8 week steady slow upward trend - Moderate to higher caution as cell levels in localised sites are continuously slowly and steadily increasing. Related toxins, below regulatory limits , occurring around entire Western coastline, related to environmental suitable conditions and exact species present.

AZP: Low levels of potential problematic cells in general throughout coastline. Continued negligible levels of toxins present in samples tested ,with no clear trend. This species has caused sudden acute issues in the past and rarely presents any reliable trends.

DSP: Continued high caution in affected areas as warned . Environmental conditions and cell levels still suitable for late seasonal issues. High SW and W, now experiencing closures as indicated, and moderate throughout all coastline. Full caution advised during this time until environmental conditions change and cell levels consistently drop off.

PSP: Moderate SW (specific sites),as a precaution but decreasing trend established – 4 weeks stable decrease, see specific sites. Suitable environmental conditions decreasing but water temperatures still high. Adjacent sites’ caution also advised. Low elsewhere. Alexandrium cells can occur in both toxic and nontoxic forms.

Blooms: Still High :Currently bloom levels of multiple species are still occurring in localised areas. Both beneficial and detrimental blooms

may occur in areas of good growth and suitable environmental conditions. Transient wind driven blooms of some species may temporarily accumulate on shores. While heavy rainfall may also cause visual changes, any unusual water discoloration should always be noted and regional labs contacted if concerned /regarding possible need for additional sampling. All feedback is welcome at [email protected]

NMP Current closures

ASP AZP DSP PSP

0 0 5 0

Week 39: September 20th – 26th 2020

Based on sites tested

Page 2: Week runs from Sunday to Saturday Ireland: Predictions · 2020. 9. 23. · Ireland modelled data: Estimated Water Pathway Week runs from Sunday to Saturday Ireland modelled data:

HAB Bulletin [status of harmful and toxic algae]

National Monitoring ProgrammeHISTORIC TRENDS

ASP events: mid-March to early May

AZP events: April to December

DSP events: May to December

PSP events: June to mid-July and end September. Predominantly in Cork Harbour.

AZP

DSP

PTX

ASP

PSP

Levels from week 1 to present week. Regulatory limit - - - - - - -

Page 3: Week runs from Sunday to Saturday Ireland: Predictions · 2020. 9. 23. · Ireland modelled data: Estimated Water Pathway Week runs from Sunday to Saturday Ireland modelled data:

DSP and Dinophysis sp. current trends

Ireland HAB & Biotoxin Distribution maps

[current status of harmful and toxic algae]

Phytoplankton species – last 3 wks.

All levels of DSP biotoxin recorded - last 3 wks.

Current closures levels≥ DSP 0.16 µg/g

CommentsWk.39 Continued high cautionSW and W. Dinophysis cellscontinue to be present andsignificant in some areas.Environmental conditions andcell presence still allowing lateseason toxin issues. Areasadjacent to closed areas shouldexercise high caution also. Highcaution and good samplingadvised until cells seasonallydecrease consistently andcompletely.

Page 4: Week runs from Sunday to Saturday Ireland: Predictions · 2020. 9. 23. · Ireland modelled data: Estimated Water Pathway Week runs from Sunday to Saturday Ireland modelled data:

Ireland HAB & Biotoxin Distribution maps

[current status of harmful and toxic algae]

Phytoplankton species – last 3 wks. All levels of AZP biotoxin recorded - last 3 wks.

AZP and Azadinium like species current trends

Current closures levels≥ AZP 0.16 µg/g

CommentsWk. 39 - Continuednegligible toxin levelscurrently . No clear trendestablished. Additionalpotential caution due totime of year and historicaltrends.

Page 5: Week runs from Sunday to Saturday Ireland: Predictions · 2020. 9. 23. · Ireland modelled data: Estimated Water Pathway Week runs from Sunday to Saturday Ireland modelled data:

ASP

Ireland HAB & Biotoxin Distribution maps

[current status of harmful and toxic algae]

ASP and Pseudo nitzschia sp. current trends

Current closures levels≥ASP 20 µg/g

CommentsWk. 39 - 8 week trend incells levels’ slow increase -Continued potential cell levelincrease and/or spread-moderate caution in allaffected areas. Individualspecies within the complexgrouping can differ in toxinlevels present. Currently onlylow levels of toxins observed.

Phytoplankton species – last 3 wks.

All levels of ASP biotoxin recorded – last 3 wks.

Page 6: Week runs from Sunday to Saturday Ireland: Predictions · 2020. 9. 23. · Ireland modelled data: Estimated Water Pathway Week runs from Sunday to Saturday Ireland modelled data:

Ireland HAB & Biotoxin Distribution maps

[current status of harmful and toxic algae]

PSP and Alexandrium sp. current trends

Phytoplankton species (last 3 wks.)

All levels of PSP biotoxin recorded (last 3 wks.)

CommentsWk. 39 – No change -Levels

of cells and toxins continue tobe declining (4 wk. trend) butcontinued caution advised untilthis species and toxin havecleared completely andconsistently. Elsewhere lowlevels of insitu potential cellsobserved. This is still thehistorical period of occurrenceand localised issues can occurrapidly in specific sites .

Current closures levels≥ PSP 800 µg/Kg

Page 7: Week runs from Sunday to Saturday Ireland: Predictions · 2020. 9. 23. · Ireland modelled data: Estimated Water Pathway Week runs from Sunday to Saturday Ireland modelled data:

Ireland Fish killing phytoplankton Distribution maps

[current status of harmful and toxic algae]

Karenia mikimotoi

(old name: Gyrodinium aureolum)

Current general conditions: Wk. 39

Potential for problematic species to cause issues : Still High

Alexandrium sp. Moderate - specific sites only, decreasing

Karenia mikimotoi/Karenia sp. Moderate , slow decrease

Heterocapsa sp. Moderate to low.

Noctiluca scintillans High

Coscinodiscus species Moderate increasing.

Phaeocystis sp. Moderate /high increasing

Chaetoceros sp High, decreasing

This is now a traditional period for end of summer transient blooms. The waters

are still warm and there is still sufficient light available for growth. Caution is

advised until the weather pattern breaks and environmental conditions become

unsuitable for bloom potential. Any Phytoplankton species at sufficient

numbers may cause temporary issues in water quality which could impact

specific areas over the course of a tidal cycle or for a period of days while

specific suitable conditions prevail. All areas should maintain good routine

sampling if concerned. Please note some blooms can occur rapidly and

acutely. Noctiluca scintillans (orange bloom , bioluminescent) is still being

observed and recorded at seasonal bloom levels in localised transient patches.

If concerned about a problematic or toxic species level please check specific

site information updates at www.marine.ie .

Phaeocystis speciesKarenia mikimotoiHeterocapsa spp.Noctiluca scintillans

Alexandrium spp.

Any part of coastline

SW currently

Noctiluca scintillans patches , West Cork, 14-9-2020.T.Chamberlain

Page 8: Week runs from Sunday to Saturday Ireland: Predictions · 2020. 9. 23. · Ireland modelled data: Estimated Water Pathway Week runs from Sunday to Saturday Ireland modelled data:

Ireland Satellite data: surface chlorophyll and temperature maps

Top 5 phytoplankton cell levels in all areas last week

NW coast (M4) Below average by 0.02°C wk.38SW coast (M3) Unavailable wk.38SE coast (M5) Above average by 0.67°C wk.38

Week 39

Many inshore areas indicating increased localchlorophyll level activity, possibly indicating localisedvaried transitory blooms. Additional caution advisedduring this seasonal period of bloom potential whilesuitable environmental conditions prevail. Pleasecheck specific area information for local activity. Thisis still a potential period for bloom activity. Warmwaters, high sunlight and potential nutrient increasesfrom heavy rain shower runoff will increase risks.Caution advised in all areas.

1 East Pseudo-nitzschia seriata complex

<1000

1 South-East Phaeocystis spp. (cells) 15930000

2 South-East Centric diatom 2086000

3 South-East Haptophytes 1248000

4 South-East Pennate diatom 429000

5 South-East Euglena/Eutreptiella spp. 371000

1 West North-west

Asterionellopsis glacialis 2496000

2 West North-west

Chaetoceros (Hyalochaete) spp.

879000

3 West North-west

Pennate diatom 62000

4 West North-west

Azadinium/heterocapsa spp.

44000

5 West North-west

Haptophytes 40000

1 North-West Asterionellopsis glacialis 781000

2 North-West Pennate diatom 742000

3 North-West Rhaphidophytes 605000

4 North-West Leptocylindrus danicus 468000

5 North-West Chaetoceros (Hyalochaete) spp.

429000

1 West Chaetoceros (Hyalochaete) spp.

6415000

2 West Haptophytes 49000

3 West Navicula spp. 28000

4 West Prorocentrum micans 26000

5 West Pennate diatom 20000

1 South Pseudo-nitzschia seriata complex

27000

2 South Paralia sulcata 5000

3 South Pennate diatom 4000

4 South Paralia sp. 3000

5 South Cylindrotheca closterium/ Nitzschia longissima

1000

1 South-West Pseudo-nitzschia seriata complex

536000

2 South-West Chaetoceros (Hyalochaete) spp.

123000

3 South-West Navicula spp. 99000

4 South-West Microflagellate spp. 94000

5 South-West Scrippsiella spp. 88000

1 West South-West

Prymnesiophytes 71000

2 West South-West

Cylindrotheca closterium/ Nitzschia longissima

3000

3 West South-West

Paralia sulcata 3000

4 West South-West

Skeletonema costatum 3000

5 West South-West

Nitzschia spp. 2000

Page 9: Week runs from Sunday to Saturday Ireland: Predictions · 2020. 9. 23. · Ireland modelled data: Estimated Water Pathway Week runs from Sunday to Saturday Ireland modelled data:

Ireland modelled data: Estimated Water PathwayWeek runs from Sunday to Saturday

Week 23: 31 May – 6 June, 2015Ireland modelled data: Estimated Water Pathway

The maps show the most

likely transport pathways

for the next 3 days of

phytoplankton found along

the presented transects

(black lines off Mizen Head

and the Mouth of Bantry Bay)

and water depths (bottom,

20 metres and surface)

Bottom water Water @ 20 metres Surface water

Reddish colours represent areas

where phytoplankton remain

longest

Cooler colours represent areas

where phytoplankton remain for

shorter periods

All depths dominated by Southerly water movement, becoming more active further offshore .

Possible weak upwelling transport of outer bay waters to inshore areas, with weak mixed

directional movement in general in sheltered inshore areas..

SOUTHWEST: Bantry Bay Forecast for the next 3 days

Page 10: Week runs from Sunday to Saturday Ireland: Predictions · 2020. 9. 23. · Ireland modelled data: Estimated Water Pathway Week runs from Sunday to Saturday Ireland modelled data:

Ireland modelled data: Estimated Water Pathway

Bantry Bay3 day estimated water flows at the mouth and mid-bay sections of Bantry Bay

T1

T1

T2

Forecast for next 3 days

De

pth

20 m

20 m

Water surface

Sea bed

Flow (m3 s-1)

100

80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

-80

-100

IN

OUT

Shot Head cross section:

Surface water transportation of

outer bay waters to inner bay

areas.

Mouth cross section:

Downwelling dominant

inward transportation into

inner bay areas.

CURRENT inflowInflow is 37% greater than the long term mean at Shot Head

Inflow is 50% greater than the long term mean at mouth of Bay

Page 11: Week runs from Sunday to Saturday Ireland: Predictions · 2020. 9. 23. · Ireland modelled data: Estimated Water Pathway Week runs from Sunday to Saturday Ireland modelled data:

Ireland modelled data: Estimated Water PathwayWeek runs from Sunday to Saturday

Week 23: 31 May – 6 June, 2015Ireland modelled data: Estimated Water Pathway

The maps show the most

likely transport pathways

for the next 3 days of

phytoplankton found along

the presented transects i.e.

white lines off Aughrus Point

and the Mouth of Killary

Harbour, and water depths

(bottom, 20 metres and

surface)

Reddish colours represent

areas where phytoplankton

remain longest

Cooler colours represent

areas where phytoplankton

remain for shorter periods

WEST : Killary Harbour Forecast for the next 3 days

Bottom water Water @ 20 metres Surface water

ClegganMixed directional water movements related to depth - bottom waters indicating Northerly

movements with surface waters indicating potentially Southerly movements dominant.

KillaryContinued Inshore transportation through moderate to low levels downwelling of surface waters

possible as far as inner bay areas.

Page 12: Week runs from Sunday to Saturday Ireland: Predictions · 2020. 9. 23. · Ireland modelled data: Estimated Water Pathway Week runs from Sunday to Saturday Ireland modelled data:

Ireland modelled data: Estimated Water Pathway

West Coast - 3 day estimated water flows - Killary and Cleggan transects

T1

Killary Harbour

Dep

th

CURRENT inflow

Inflow is 25% lower than the average long term mean at

mouth of Bay

Water

surface

Forecast for next 3 days

IN

Killary Harbour Mouth cross section:

continued decrease and lower than

average transportation of offshore waters

into inner bay areas as far as midbay.

Killary Harbour

Cleggan transect

Aughrus Point

Cleggan section: Northerly transportation

in surface and offshore waters, of well

mixed waters, with developing Southerly

transport in deeper zones.

Water surface

110 m

Flow (m3 s-1)

100

80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

-80

-100OUT