Update #2Yes, we have no bananas.

We have no bananas today.

Improve the timeliness of procurement request fulfillment for

the industrial program

• Problem Statement:The procurement request fulfillment process for the Coast Guard Industrial Program currently takes an average of 9.3 days for a single Type 32 purchase. Procurements are currently fulfilled at ten locations around the Coast Guard, and the average time to make a purchase at each site ranges from 1.9 to 39.1 days according to a recent study. To meet customer needs, procurement fulfillments should be completed within 5 days. The problem has existed for several years.

Charter

• Signed in September.

• Added tasking for the project to examine variability issues (appended by email correspondence)

• Coast Guard Industrial Program currently undergoing radical “modernization” as a part of the agency’s reorganization efforts.

• Confidentiality agreement in place

Communications Plan

• Currently in review with the Value Stream Champion

• Focus on linking messages with the ongoing simultaneous modernization effort.

• Bi-Weekly updates on project progress to VSC who provides to Executive Sponsor.

Data Collection

• It’s all bollocked-up

• Full data from 2008 – locked up in a now inaccessible data format; includes simulations

• Current data – deep inside Oracle; the holy grail is getting the data out

200-20

99.9

90

50

10

1

C1

Perc

ent

20100

99

90

50

10

0.1

C1

Perc

ent

10.01.00.1

99.999

90

50

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1

C1

Perc

ent

100.0010.001.000.100.01

99.99990

50

10

1

C1 - Threshold

Perc

ent

GammaAD = 1.136 P-Value = 0.007

3-Parameter GammaAD = 3.056 P-Value = *

Goodness of Fit Test

Smallest Extreme Value

AD = 7.632 P-Value < 0.010

Largest Extreme ValueAD = 1.489

P-Value < 0.010

Probability Plot for C1Smallest Extreme Value - 95% CI Largest Extreme Value - 95% CI

Gamma - 95% CI 3-Parameter Gamma - 95% CI

100.0010.001.000.100.01

99.9

90

50

10

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C1

Perc

ent

100.0010.001.000.100.01

99.9

90

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C1 - ThresholdP

erc

ent

10.01.00.1

99.9

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C1

Perc

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100.0010.001.000.100.01

99.9

90

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C1 - Threshold

Perc

ent

WeibullAD = 1.220 P-Value < 0.010

3-Parameter WeibullAD = 3.947 P-Value < 0.005

Goodness of Fit Test

Exponential

AD = 2.644 P-Value < 0.003

2-Parameter ExponentialAD = 2.143

P-Value < 0.010

Probability Plot for C1Exponential - 95% CI 2-Parameter Exponential - 95% CI

Weibull - 95% CI 3-Parameter Weibull - 95% CI

20100-10

99.9

99

90

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1

0.1

C1

Perc

ent

420-2

99.9

99

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C1

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ent

100.010.01.00.1

99.9

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C1

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ent

1000

0.00

1000

.00

100.0

0

10.0

01.0

00.1

00.0

1

99.9

99

90

50

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0.1

C1 - Threshold

Perc

ent

LognormalAD = 1.140 P-Value = 0.005

3-Parameter LognormalAD = 6.518 P-Value = *

Goodness of Fit Test

Normal

AD = 3.298 P-Value < 0.005

Box-Cox TransformationAD = 1.140

P-Value = 0.005

After Box-Cox transformation (lambda = 0)

Probability Plot for C1Normal - 95% CI Normal - 95% CI

Lognormal - 95% CI 3-Parameter Lognormal - 95% CI

2520151050-5-10

99.9

99

95

90

80706050403020

10

5

1

0.1

C1

Perc

ent

Mean 4.085StDev 3.544N 59AD 3.298P-Value <0.005

PtownNormal

20100-10

99.9

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95

80

50

20

5

1

0.1

Perc

ent

N 59AD 3.298P-Value <0.005

1.21.00.80.60.4

0.10

0.08

0.06

0.04

0.02

0.00

Z Value

P-V

alue

for

AD

tes

t

Ref P

Probability Plot for Original Data Select a Transformation

(P-Value = 0.005 means <= 0.005)

J ohnson Transformation for C1

Fail to select a transformation with P-Value > 0.1. No transformation is made.

Normal?Transformatable?Defined non-normal distribution?

Not on your life…

And next?

• Following direction from the book: Find another metric and start collecting data again…

Next Steps

• Remain solidly in the Measure phase of DMAIC• Meeting with Value Stream Champion 11/3 to

revisit project plan and develop data collection plan.

• Develop measurement system analysis with an eye toward analyzing Oracle data against check sheet data.

• Meeting with process team 11/10 to update value stream map, including future state.

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