wealth accounts iwr 2014 - un escap · 2015. 1. 30. · 11.10.2013 1 wealth accounts in the iwr...
TRANSCRIPT
11.10.2013
1
Wealth Accounts in the IWR 20144
1
IWR 2012: Twenty countries which represented 72% of the GDP and 56 % of the Population
2
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2
140 countries: 99% of the GDP and 96 % of the Population
3
Change in Inclusive Wealth per capita for the year 2010 (base year = 1990)
4
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3
Change in Inclusive Wealth per capita for the year 2010 (base year = 1990)
Tha
iland
IWI 30%
5
T
GDP 95%
Change in Inclusive Wealth per capita for the year 2010 (base year = 1990)
Tha
iland
IWI 30%
6
T
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4
100
120
Change in IWI with respect to the 1990 levels (per capita)
(20)
-
20
40
60
80
100
Pe
rce
nta
ge
30% Change in IWI
7
(40)
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Produced Capital Human Capital Natural Capital Inclusive Wealth Index
100
120
Change in IWI with respect to the 1990 levels (per capita)
(20)
-
20
40
60
80
100
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Produced Capital
8
(40)
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Produced Capital Human Capital Natural Capital Inclusive Wealth Index
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5
(50)
(40)
(30)
(20)
(10)
‐
10
20
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Perce
ntage
Investment growth rates
100
120
(20)
-
20
40
60
80
100
Pe
rce
nta
ge
9
(40)
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Produced Capital Human Capital Natural Capital Inclusive Wealth Index
100
120
Change in IWI with respect to the 1990 levels (per capita)
(20)
-
20
40
60
80
100
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Produced Capital
IWI
Human Capital
10
(40)
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Produced Capital Human Capital Natural Capital Inclusive Wealth Index
Natural Capital
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6
100
120
Change in IWI with respect to the 1990 levels (per capita)
(20)
-
20
40
60
80
100
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Produced Capital
IWI Human Capital: Edu: 5.5 yr to 7.5 yr
11
(40)
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Produced Capital Human Capital Natural Capital Inclusive Wealth Index
Natural Capital
Change in Natural Capital with respect to the 1990 levels (per capita)
-
(60)
(50)
(40)
(30)
(20)
(10)
Pee
rcen
tag
e
12
(70)
( )
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Agricultural Land Forest Fisheries
Fossil Fuels Minerals Natural Capital Index
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7
Composition of Wealth(average 1990-2010, in %)
32
14
45
32
0
Percentage Composition of Natural Capital(average 1990‐2010, in %)
13
53
Produced Capital Human CapitalNatural Capital
23
‐
Agricultural Land Total Forest Fisheries Fossil Fuels Minerals
Thank you
14
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8
+ +
Fossil fuels Education EquipmentsOil Machinaries
+ Natural gas RoadsCoal Etc
Minerals
Bauxite Nickel Index
Natural Capital Human Capital Produced Capital
Bauxite Nickel
+ Copper Phosphate
Gold Silver
Iron Tin
Lead Zinc
+ Fisheries
Forest resources + Timber
Non‐timber forest resources
Adjusted
Inclusive Wealth
Index
Inclusive W
ealth
15
Agricultural Land + Cropland
Pastureland
Factors that
affect IW
I (1) Carbon Damages
(2) Oil capital Gains
(3) Total Factor Productivity
O i IWR 2012Overview on IWR 2012: Methods and datasets
Pablo Muñoz
UNU IHDPUNU‐IHDP
Paris | April 2013
11.10.2013
9
+ + Produced Capital
Inclusive Wealth Index
Human CapitalNatural Capital
=
17
+ +
Fossil fuels Education Equipments
Produced Capital
Inclusive Wealth Index
Human CapitalNatural Capital
=
Fossil fuels Education EquipmentsOil Machinaries
+ Natural gas RoadsCoal Etc
MineralsBauxite Nickel
+ Copper Phosphate
Gold Silver
Iron Tin
18
Lead Zinc
+ Fisheries
Forest resources + Timber
Non‐timber forest resources
Agricultural Land + Cropland
Pastureland
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10
+ +
F il f l Ed ti E i t
Inclusive Wealth Index
Natural Capital Human Capital Produced Capital
=
Fossil fuels Education EquipmentsOil Machinaries
+ Natural gas RoadsCoal Etc
MineralsBauxite Nickel
+ Copper Phosphate
Gold Silver
Iron Tin
19
Lead Zinc
+ Fisheries
Forest resources + Timber
Non‐timber forest resources
Agricultural Land + Cropland
Pastureland
+ +
Inclusive Wealth Index
Natural Capital Human Capital Produced Capital
=
Fossil fuels Education EquipmentsOil Machinaries
+ Natural gas RoadsCoal Etc
MineralsBauxite Nickel
+ Copper Phosphate
Gold Silver
Iron Tin
20
Iron Tin
Lead Zinc
+ Fisheries
Forest resources + Timber
Non‐timber forest resources
Agricultural Land + Cropland
Pastureland
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11
Fossil Fuels and Minerals
Rental Price
Fossil Fuels and Minerals
Fossil Fuels
Rental Price
Fossil FuelsOilNatural GasCoal
MineralsBauxiteCopperGoldGoldIronLeadNickelPhosphateSilverTinZinc
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Fossil Fuels and Minerals
Fossil Fuels
Rental Price
Fossil FuelsOilNatural GasCoal
MineralsBauxiteCopperGold
Physical stock estimates were based on reserves and production data:Gold
IronLeadNickelPhosphateSilverTinZinc
production data:Stock t-1 = Stock t + Production t
Fossil Fuels and Minerals
Sectoral rentalFossil Fuels
Rental Price
Sectoral rental rates (%)
Avg. International market prices of resource i.
Fossil FuelsOilNatural GasCoal
MineralsBauxiteCopperGold
Physical stock estimates were based on reserves and production data:Gold
IronLeadNickelPhosphateSilverTinZinc
production data:Stock t-1 = Stock t + Production t
Data Sources: United States Energy Information Administration (EIA); British Geological Survey; United States Geological Survey (USGS); World Bank; BP Statistical Review of World Energy; Narayanan and Walmsley (2008).
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13
Sectoral Rental R
Fisheries
Rates.
Prices per tonnefrom the total landing value and quantity of the Sea Around Us Project.
Proxi: Weighted (by quantity) price of those species reported by the Sea Around Us Project.
* Available stock of fisheries within countries’ fishing areas from the RAM Legacy Stock Assessment Database.* The total biomass is expressed in tonnes.
Data sources: Sea Around Us Project (2011); Sumaila et al. (2005); Narayanan and Walmsley (2008), RAM Legacy Stock Assessment Database - Richard et al. (2012).
+ +
Inclusive Wealth Index
Natural Capital Human Capital Produced Capital
=
Fossil fuels Education EquipmentsOil Machinaries
+ Natural gas RoadsCoal Etc
MineralsBauxite Nickel
+ Copper Phosphate
Gold Silver
Iron Tin
26
Lead Zinc
+ Fisheries
Forest resources + Timber
Non‐timber forest resources
Agricultural Land + Cropland
Pastureland
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14
. 5 . . . . dt
Human Capital Framework in the IWR
• Human capital (HC) is defined as:
0
• Term I: HC is a function of educational attainment (“Edu”) and the additional compensation over time of this training, ρ.
Term I
Where average years of total schooling is used as a proxi of Educational attainment and obteained from Barro and Lee (2010) database.
Education: percentage change (1990‐2008) in the average years of total Schooling
41
44
47
66
China
India
Germany
Brazil
16
16
17
18
19
23
24
24
29
33
37
38
C d
Norway
United Kingdom
Russian Federation
Chile
Nigeria
Colombia
South Africa
Kenya
Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)
France
Saudi Arabia
28
4
6
11
15
16
‐ 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Australia
United States of America
Ecuador
Japan
Canada
Percentage in Avg. Years of Total Schooling
Average years of total Schooling: BRA=7.4 USA=13.02
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15
. 5 . . . . dt
Human Capital Framework in the IWR
• Human capital (HC) is defined as:
0
• Term II: Population of the country who reach the years of total education, “P”.
Term I Term II
Source:United Nations PopulationSource:United Nations Population Division (2011);
. 5 . . . . dt
Human Capital Framework in the IWR
• Human capital (HC) is defined as:
0
• Term III is obtained by computing the present value of the average labor compensation per unit of human capital, “r”, received by workers over an entire life’s working period, T.
Term I Term II Term III
Where:
r: Conference Board (2012);United Nations Statistics Division (2011a); OECD; National Stadistics Agencies.
T: United Nations Population Division (2011); World Health Organization; (2012); International Labour Organization (2011)
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16
Expected number of working years remaining for the average adult, T
14
14
14
d
Saudi Arabia
France
Germany
20
19
19
18
17
17
17
16
16
16
16
15
15
15
B il
Nigeria
Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)
Chile
United States of America
Colombia
Norway
Canada
India
Australia
Japan
United Kingdom
South Africa
Russian Federation
“T” is obtained by using the following demographic inputs by ‘age group’ and ‘gender’: population, mortality rates, and participation in the labor force.
29
23
21
20
‐ 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Kenya
Ecuador
China
Brazil
Expected number of working years remaining, T, for the average adult in Japan
17.5
14.5
15
15.5
16
16.5
17
32
13
13.5
14
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
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17
. 5 . . . . dt
Human Capital Framework in the IWR
• Human capital (HC) is defined as:
0
. 5 . .
0
. . dt
Term I Term II Term III
0
Break Down of the changes in Human Capital(HC) for Brazil
60
20
30
40
50
ange
with Respect to 1990
Term I: Change in HC per Adult
Term II: Change in Relative Population
Change in HC per capita
34
0
10
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
% cha Population
Term III: Change in NPV
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18
Break Down of the changes in Human Capital(HC) for Japan
15Term I: Change in HC per
0
5
10
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
ange
with Respect to 1990
g pAdult
Term II: Change in Relative Population
Change in HC per capita
35
‐10
‐5
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
% cha
Term III: Change in NPV
+ +
Inclusive Wealth Index
Natural Capital Human Capital Produced Capital
=
Fossil fuels Education EquipmentsOil Machinaries
+ Natural gas RoadsCoal Etc
MineralsBauxite Nickel
+ Copper Phosphate
Gold Silver
Iron Tin
36
Lead Zinc
+ Fisheries
Forest resources + Timber
Non‐timber forest resources
Agricultural Land + Cropland
Pastureland
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19
We based our calculations on the perpetual inventory method (PIM) by setting an initial capital estimate.
Produced Capital (PC)
PC1 = Initial capital estimate(K0) + Invesment1 ‐ Ko Depreciation
0 1 11
Produced
Capital
Investment
37Time
Ko
*Changes in Inv*Depreciation
0/
Depreciation rate
30
40
Venezuela
-20
-10
0
10
20
Pe
rce
nta
ge
38
-40
-30
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Produced Capital Human Capital Natural Capital IWI
11.10.2013
20
9060 000
Investment in Venezuela
VENEZUELA
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
l Pri
ces
(us$
200
0/b
erre
l)
Mill
ion
s o
f U
SD
39
-
10
20
-
10,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Oil
+ +
F il f l Ed ti E i t
Inclusive Wealth Index
Natural Capital Human Capital Produced Capital
=
Fossil fuels Education EquipmentsOil Machinaries
+ Natural gas RoadsCoal Etc
MineralsBauxite Nickel
+ Copper Phosphate
Gold Silver
Iron Tin
40
Lead Zinc
+ Fisheries
Forest resources + Timber
Non‐timber forest resources
Agricultural Land + Cropland
Pastureland
11.10.2013
21
+ +
Fossil fuels Education Equipments Longevity
Inclusive Wealth Index
Natural Capital Human Capital Produced Capital Health Capital
=
Fossil fuels Education Equipments LongevityOil Machinaries
+ Natural gas RoadsCoal Etc
MineralsBauxite Nickel
+ Copper Phosphate
Gold Silver
Iron Tin
Lead Zinc
41
+ Fisheries
Forest resources + Timber
Non‐timber forest resources
Agricultural Land + Cropland
Pastureland
42