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Quantitative Risk Global Expertise Independent
HONDURAS - Forecasted 2/15
A PRS update on Honduras issued in February 2015 noted the potential for moves by members of the governing PN to end the one-term limit on the presidency to impede President Juan Orlando’s ability to secure the cooperation of opposition lawmakers required to pass legislation and to fuel a worrisome increase in domestic political instability. In April, the country’s politicized Supreme Court threw out the term limit, a decision that triggered a wave of protests that, with the additional fuel provided by a corruption scandal, have increasingly featured calls for President Juan Orlando Hernandez to resign. The ruling has also put the opposition
parties in campaign mode, as they scramble to coax former presidents out of retirement and reconnect with voters, a development that is likely to deepen the partisan divides that pose a threat to effective governance.
INDONESIA - Forecasted 3/14
In our March 2014 pre-election update on Indonesia, PRS highlighted the political risk arising from the fact that the favorite to win the presidential election, Joko “Jokowi” Widodi, is not the leader of the PDI-P, under whose banner he won the top job, and that his ability to deliver on key campaign promises, which included a pledge to crack down on corruption, could be hampered by interference from party leader Megawati Sukarnoputri and other top offi cials in the PDI-P. The president’s anti-corruption credentials have already been tarnished by his controversial decision to nominate scandal-tainted Buni Gunawan, a close political ally of Megawati, to head
the national police force, and the resulting damage to Jokowi’s popularity dims his prospects for successfully steer controversial reform measures through the opposition-dominated legislature.
GUYANA - Forecasted 2/15
In our February 2015 update on Guyana, PRS forecast that an electoral alliance of the multiparty APNU coalition and the smaller AFC would bring an end to the long reign of the PPP-C. The APNU-AFC alliance barely edged out the incumbents at an early election held in May 2015, positioning the PNC-R, the PPP-C’s historical rival and the lead party in APNU, to head the government for the fi rst time in 18 years.
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