why don't we get the future right?
DESCRIPTION
Why don’t we get the future right? Here are Tom's slides from a presentation he gave in a Pii Chat at Microsoft Consulting Services Campus in Reading on Friday 8th April. Microsoft Pii Chats are personal, innovative and inspirational talks from a diverse range of speakers to stimulate debate and creativity. Tom gave four reasons why we get our predictions wrong from overlooking the obvious to forgetting that form and function have fallen out.TRANSCRIPT
www.system-concepts.com
Why don’t we get the future right?
Tom Stewart, System Concepts
www.system-concepts.com
Billy Connolly quotes
“there are two seasons in Scotland: June and
Winter”
“there is no such thing as „bad‟ weather, just
the wrong clothes”
so maybe
“there is no such thing as bad predictions,
just how we interpret them”
www.system-concepts.com
The telephone took off so
rapidly that a statistician at
Bell Telephone System
forecasted that at the then
current rate of increase,
every woman in the United
States would have to
become a telephone
operator!Emma McNutt 1878,
www.system-concepts.com
Almon Strowger
www.system-concepts.com
No, there are bad predictions
Edison’s Light Bulb - “good enough for our transatlantic friends ...
but unworthy of the attention of practical or scientific men.”
British Parliamentary Committee, 1878.
“The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We
have plenty of messenger boys.”
Sir William Preece, Chief Engineer, British Post Office, 1878.
“Very interesting Whittle, my boy, but it will never work.”
Cambridge Aeronautics Professor, when shown Frank
Whittle's plan for the jet engine.
www.system-concepts.com
Why our predictions fail
we overlook the obvious
technology changes, people don’t
metaphors are dangerous
form and function have fallen out.
www.system-concepts.com
www.system-concepts.com
Technology changes – people don’t
“...[there] has been great disorder in
…Manchester …windows broken yearly and
spoiled by lewd and disordered persons
…playing … football in the streets”
The problem in Manchester with the
banned activity of “ffotebale” in 1608.
“people need holes not drills”
Or do they
visual slide me with drills
wants are not the same as
needs and do change
but I want drills!
www.system-concepts.com
Metaphors are dangerous
www.system-concepts.com
Telegraph ipad edition
www.system-concepts.com
Form and function have fallen out
Smaller is not
always better
IN
ON
ONE HAND
TWO HAND
CARRY
RIDE ON
RIDE IN
www.system-concepts.com
the power of negative thinking
www.system-concepts.com
identify constraints & show stoppers
www.system-concepts.com
many suffer from...
“hardening of the categories”
www.system-concepts.com
pretend you have Super Powers
imagine what you
would do if the
constraints were
lifted – remember
the brick
www.system-concepts.com
then, evaluate, but…
... avoid Premature Evaluation!
www.system-concepts.com
RIPE approach to the next big thing
Research – put in the hard work
Identify constraints – know the box
Pretend you have superpowers to
challenge assumptions and explore options
Evaluate – but not too early
020 7240 3388
www.system-concepts.com
Thank You!