wdr 2015 mind, society, and behavior:...
TRANSCRIPT
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WDR 2015Mind, Society, and Behavior:
Comments
Yasuyuki Sawada
University of Tokyo
& JICA Research Institute
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Outline
1. Why WDR on mind, society, and behavior?
2. Main messages
3. Comments/questionsA. JICA’s contributions
B. Usual criticisms on robustness
C. Missing important pieces
D. More fundamental issues
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1. Why WDR on ????
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~20th century•Leijonfhufvud, Axel (1973) :”Life among the
Econ” Western Economic Journal 11(3), 327-336.
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~20th century• Paul Krugman "Towards a Counter-Counterrevolution in
Development Theory," Proceedings of the World Bank Annual Conference on Development Economics, 15-38, 1993.
“Once upon a time there was a field called development economics”
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21st century~
• Esther Duflo (MIT)• Won John Bates Clark medal 2010 at age of 37• Distinguished herself through definitive contributions to the
field of development economics
• Development economics as a major field in economics• Many academic papers appear in prestigious top journals
such as Econometrica, AER, JPE, RES, …as well as PNAS, Science, and etc..
• Best PhD candidates in economics at MIT, Yale, Princeton, and Harvard specialize in development:
• In 2013, 6 out of 18 (now 3/14) job candidates at MIT, and 5 out of 15 at Yale
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7
Field Experiments!
• The weird people in the world? (Henrich, Heine, and Norenzayan, 2010)→Real world relevance
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8
Non-standard subjectsNatural setting
RCT
Field Experiments!
• The weird people in the world? (Henrich, Heine, and Norenzayan, 2010)→Real world relevance
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294 words “experiment” in 215 pages
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2. Main Messages
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Main Messages1. Thinking automatically
• “Choice architecture” & “nudge” to guide decisions
2. Thinking socially• (Monetary/non-monetary) interventions, institutions, and social norms to facilitate
cooperation
3. Thinking with mental models or “culture”• Invoking positive identifies; “media”
• Psychological and social perspectives on policy (poverty, child development, HH finance, productivity, health, and climate change)
• Development professionals are also subject to the biases and mistakes arising from these three factors
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3. Comments
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A. JICA’s contributions
• Missing partly because of my behavioral problem (a naive hyperbolic discounter)….
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Election, Implementation, and Social Capital in School-Based Management:
Evidence from COGES Project in Burkina Faso
Yasuyuki Sawada
JICA RI and Univ of Tokyo
with Takeshi Aida, Drew Griffen, Eiji Kozuka,
Haruko Noguchi, and Yasuyuki Todo16
A. JICA’s contributions
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Evaluation Strategy: A Hybrid of Artefactual & Natural Field Experiment
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• RCT: Impact of COGES (D) → Outcome (Y)• Treatment D=1[COGES]
• Main phase: Randomized roll-out
• Outcomes Y:• Students’ cognitive and non-cognitive achievements• School outcomes• Social capital (voluntary contribution to public goods)• Health and anthropometric outcomes
• Public goods game (a game explained in WDR 2015): • Standard laboratory experiments (Levitt and Fehr, 2004)• Voluntary cooperation among people• One of the measures of social capital (Anderson et al., 2004)• Multi-person PD game
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Voluntary Contribution to Local Public GoodsBased on the Public Goods Experiments
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0
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Non-COGES COGES
Implementation Effect
+9.1%
0
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100
150
200
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Non-COGES COGES
Election Effect+3.4%
(insignificant)
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Non-COGES COGES
Election Effect
for Director,Teacher, and Parents
+12.8%
0
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150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Non-COGES COGES
Implementation Effect
for Director, Teacher, and Parents
+11.8%
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Three Types of Social Capital
Source) Daniel P. Aldrich, “Networks of Resilience: How Social Capital Assist Post Disaster Recovery.”19
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B. Usual criticisms
• External validity?
• Robust policy instruments?
• General equilibrium effects when scaled-up?
• Lack of a grand view?
• To grasp “think socially,” PGG and trust games, i.e., Prisoner’s dilemma (PD) games, are used.
• PD games are the ones of “market failures” where laissez-faire cannot achieve Pareto optimality.
• The government also fails in correcting market failures
• People’s “automatic, social, and mental” behaviors can be nudged to amend the trinity of market, state, and community a la Yujiro Hayami (2009)
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A Grand View
laissez-fairelaissez-faire
Source) Hayami, Yujiro (2009). Social Capital, Human Capital, and Community Mechanism: Toward a
Consensus among Economists’, Journal of Development Studies 45(1), pp.96–123.
・ Feigenberg, Field and Pande (2013) RES
・ Mobarak & Rosenzweig (2013) AEA-PP
・ Karlan (2005) AER
• Angelucci and Giorgi (2009) AER
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C. Missing important pieces • The role of infrastructure to “nudge” people?
• Sawada et al. (2013) on irrigation infrastructure in Sri Lanka to facilitate trust
• Use of a hybrid method of artefacultual field experiments (trust game) and natural experiments of settlements
• The importance of new technologies and innovations• This report focused on the “last one mile” problem
• Innovations themselves are indispensable
Ex 1) LLINs vs. simple nets with community-driven treatment
Ex 2) One of the NTDs, the African sleeping sickness and Nagana diseases caused by the TseTse fly are attributed to the current poor political economy in Africa (Alsan, 2015, AER). Prof. Kiyoshi Kita found significant effectiveness of ascofuranone.
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D. More Fundamental Issues
1. Fundamental criticisms: • Parachute project vs ownership
• Risks of victimization by a dictator through paternalistic policy interventions
2. Real-world difficulties in adopting experiments• Prejudice on field experiments: overconfidence, overloading, excessive
(subjective) costs, and ethical concerns
• IRB?
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Thank you very much!