mind, society, and behavior · mind, society, and behavior (how a better understanding of human...
TRANSCRIPT
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World Development Report 2015
MIND, SOCIETY, AND BEHAVIOR
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(How a Better Understanding of Human Behavior Can Improve Development Policy)
World Development Report 2015
MIND, SOCIETY, AND BEHAVIOR
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We’ll give examples of novel ways to address policy questions:
Policy question 1-- How to increase savings for health?
Under-5 mortality could be cut in half through investments in readily available preventative health products
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We’ll give examples of novel ways to address policy questions:
Policy question 1-- How to increase savings for health?
Under-5 mortality could be cut in half through investments in readily available preventative health products Besides standard policies, what more could be done to increase savings for health products?
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Dupas and Robinson 2013
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Low aspirations can also be an obstacle to savings From a survey in Ethiopian villages: “We have neither a dream nor an imagination” “We live only for today” Bernand, Dercon & Taffesse 2011
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Impact 6 months later of seeing the 1-hour video of success stories
• Aspirations & locus of control go up • Savings go up • Hours worked go up
Bernard, Dercon, et al. 2014
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Objective of the WDR 2015
• Not to displace existing policies approaches
• But to add to them with a new set of tools based on how people actually think
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All policy rests on assumptions of why we do what we do
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Principle 1
THINKING AUTOMATICALLY
Automatic thinking—intuitive, associative, and impressionistic—is the “secret author of many of the choices and judgments you make.”
- Kahneman (2011)
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How many 7-letter words whose sixth letter is “n” would you expect to find in four pages of a novel?
_ _ _ _ _ n _
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How many 7-letter words whose sixth letter is “n” would you expect to find in four pages of a novel?
_ _ _ _ _ n _
How many 7-letter words ending in “ing” would you expect?
_ _ _ _ i n g
The average answer to the 2nd question is 3 times more than the average answer to the 1st question. Violates logic.
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Availability heuristic
The more easily people can think up examples, the more instance of the object they predict.
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• How do US high school students decide how many colleges to apply to?
• When poor students apply to only a few colleges, they aim too low.
College application decisions of the poor in the US
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Pallais forthcoming
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• Estimated lifetime change in earnings of poor seniors is $10,000, on average.
Impact of change in ACT rule in 1998
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Too little adherence to drugs Too little enrollment in post-2o school Too little teacher effort
Too much borrowing from payday lenders
Other policies that work by changing automatic thinking
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Too little adherence to drugs Too little enrollment in post-2o school Too little teacher effort
Too much borrowing from payday lenders
Sources: Pop-Eleches et al. 2011; Barrera-Osorio et. al 2011;Fryer et al. 2012; Bertrand and Morse 2011
Other policies that work by changing automatic thinking
Text phone reminders Change timing of CCT’s Give teachers advance bonuses that they will lose if student performance is too low
On cash envelope, show the dollar costs of payday lender vs. charge card borrowing
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Principle 2
THINKING SOCIALLY
Social norms and social preferences exert a powerful influence on individual decision making and behavior. They are the “glue” or “cement” of society.
- Elster (1989)
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Money paid at an office snack bar per liter of milk consumed
Picture shown Money voluntarily paid
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Money paid at an office snack bar per liter of milk consumed
Picture shown Money voluntarily paid
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Money paid at an office snack bar per liter of milk consumed
Picture shown Money voluntarily paid
Our sociality is hard wired
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What I’ve emphasized so far is the framing of opportunities. But we also frame ourselves
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Coins tossed by an honest person
Cohn, Fehr, and Marechal 2014
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Payoffs to an honest person & the control group
Cohn, Fehr, and Marechal 2014
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Making bankers’ identity more salient makes them less honest
Payoffs to an honest person & the treatment group
Cohn, Fehr, and Marechal 2014
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Complete the word: __ __ o k e r
The frequency of bank-related words, like broker, in the banker identity condition was increased by 40%.
To verify identity salience, a follow-up word completion test was run
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Policy question 2: How to decrease traffic deaths?
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• Insurance claims involving injury or death fell by 50%.
Impact
Habyarimana and Jack 2011
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Interventions on thinking socially
Too little effort by doctors Gap in performance between stigmatized and non-stigmatized students
High-risk behavior by men with criminal histories
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When doctors are reminded by peers of best practices and encouraged to improve their performance, the doctors who are visited do so.
“Self-affirmation” exercises in which people with stigmatized identities focus briefly on their personal values or experiences
Cognitive Behavior Therapy program
Sources: Jamtvedt and others 2007; Brock, Lange, and Leonard, forthcoming; Steele and Aronson 1995, Hoff and Pandey 2006, 2014, Afridi et al. forthcoming; Hall, Zhou and Shafir 2013; Blattman et al. 2014
Too little effort by doctors
Gap in performance between stigmatized and non-stigmatized students
High-risk behavior by men with criminal histories
Interventions on thinking socially
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Principle 3
THINKING WITH MENTAL MODELS
What we perceive and how we interpret the world depends on the mental models – the concepts and world-views – we draw on from our societies and shared histories. - Denzau and North 1994
Here insert the Heider –Simmel video (1944) from the web. It’s 2 minutes in length. If your computer is linked to the web, it may be possible to do this using the next slide.
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“The perception of intention and emotion is irresistible; only people afflicted by autism do not experience it. All this is entirely in your mind, of course” (Kahneman 2011).
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Policy question 3 How to explain why the efficiency of institutions varies across regions?
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Institutions emerge in many ways.
• One way is through the imitation or formal adoption of a group conventions.
But then how do group conventions emerge?
• By the convergence, in repeated games, of self-fulfilling expectations.
• An obstacle to this process for cooperative conventions is the culture of honor—cross me, and I’ll punish you!
Culture and coordination
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A US experiment on the culture of honor compared the reaction to insult between young men from the US North and the US South
TESTOSTERONE CORITSOL
Cohen et al. 1996
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A surge in hormones of US Southerners
TESTOSTERONE CORITSOL
Cohen et al. 1996
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6 of the over 200 subjects in the Stag Hunt (Brooks, Hoff, Pandey 2015)
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Small gain Big loss
Small gain Big gain
Be
inde
pend
ent
Try
to c
oope
rate
Be independent Try to cooperate
2x2 coordination game in India— Payoffs to column player
2 Nash equilibria
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Percentage of pairs that cooperate in the last period
0
20
40
60
80
High-caste pairs
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0
20
40
60
80
High-caste pairs
Mixed-caste pairs
Percentage of pairs that cooperate in the last period
Brooks, Hoff, and Pandey (2015)
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0
20
40
60
80
High-caste pairs
Mixed-caste pairs
Low-caste pairs
Percentage of pairs that cooperate in the last period
Brooks, Hoff, and Pandey (2015)
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Percentage of players who continue to try to cooperate after getting a big loss
0
20
40
60
80
In low-caste pairs
In high-caste pairs
Brooks, Hoff, and Pandey (2015)
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Behavior (objective costs and benefits)
Information
Rational actor
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Information
Psychological, social, & cultural actor
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Information
Psychological, social, & cultural actor
Behavioral interventions
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Policy question 4 How to end extreme poverty?
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Jamaica early childhood development project
• Parent-child engagement is very low, on average, in poor countries
• But parents can be taught—partly with information, and partly with praise & support, to increase verbal engagement with their children
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Changing a mental model of child development can break the intergenerational transmission of poverty
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The 2-year program erased wage gaps between adult wages of stunted & non-stunted toddlers
0,94
0,79
1,
Stunted, with mother-toddler home visits
Stunted, no intervention
Not stunted as a toddler
Average adult earnings
Gertler et al. 2014
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Gertler et al. 2014
0,94
0,79
1,
Stunted, with mother-toddler home visits
Stunted, no intervention
Not stunted as a toddler
Average adult earnings .
The 2-year program erased wage gaps between adult wages of stunted & non-stunted toddlers.
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Policies to change mental models
Justification for FGM Beliefs in the inferiority of women Beliefs in the intrinsic inferiority of disadvantaged groups
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Policies to change mental models
Justification for FGM Beliefs in the inferiority of women Beliefs in the intrinsic inferiority of disadvantaged groups
Group deliberation
Political reservations for women Build the self-confidence of those groups through, e.g. brief self-affirmation exercises
Source: Mackie and LeJeune 2009; Beaman et al. 2009; Hoff and Pandey 2006; Hall and Shafir 2013
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“Behavioral economics policies are beautiful because they are small and concrete but powerful. They remind us that when policies are rooted in actual human behavior and specific day-to-day circumstances, even governments can produce small miracles." David Brooks, The New York Times,
December 12, 2014
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Thanks!
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Appendix
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How individuals think
Rational
Deliberative
Autonomous
Self-regarding
Complete
Intuitive
Automatic
Socially conditioned
Social preferences
Organized by mental models, shaped by history
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All policy rests on assumptions of why we do what we do
People think automatically: when deciding, we usually draw on what comes to mind effortlessly People think socially: social norms guide much of our behavior, and most of us are conditional cooperators People think with mental models: what we perceive and how we interpret the world depends on concepts and world-views drawn from our societies and shared histories.
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Conclusion • The new approaches do not replace standard economics • But standard price effects are not the only determinants of behavior • The WDR tries to advance the use of behavioral insights to
promote better development policy • The body of evidence on decision making is still coming into view