WCRP matters and implications WCRP matters and implications for WGNEfor WGNE

WGNE 29WGNE 29thth session session10-13 10-13 March 2014March 2014

Melbourne, AustraliaMelbourne, AustraliaC. Jakob on behalf of M. Rixen, WCRP JPS, Geneva

Mission & Objectives World Climate Research Programme supports

climate-related decision making and adaptation planning by coordinating research required to improve

(1) climate predictions and

(2) understanding of human influence on climate

“for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society”

(WCRP Strategic Framework 2005-2015).

Now includes MJO TF

GC Clouds: challenges

GC Clouds: opportunities

GC Clouds: organizationS. Bony & B. Stevens

GC Clouds: model development

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GLOBAL FRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE SERVICES

Goal: Improved management of climate variability and change and adaptation to climate change through use of climate information in policy and practice from global to national scale

Initial priority for first 4 years:• Agriculture and food security• Disaster risk reduction• Water resources• Health

www.gfcs-climate.org

Prediction

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Capacities in climate services• More than 70 countries have only

basic or less than basic capacities to provide climate services

Essential

Full

Advanced

Less than Basic

Basic

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Infrastrucal Capacity Category

# of

Cou

ntrie

s/Te

rrito

ries

Infrastructural capacity category

Basic

Essential

Full

Advanced

Less than basic#

of C

ount

ries/

Terr

itorie

s

• ≈ 60 countries can provide full or advanced climate services

Pilot projects in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Niger, Sudan and South Sudan.

Under preparation: Botswana, Nepal and Spain

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Research, Modelling and PredictionMain gaps to be addressed

• Weak communication between communities of scientists and practitioners and the need to go the “last mile” between science deliverables and service-oriented ready-to-use climate information products @ global, regional, & local scale

• Lack of seamless suite of climate products for contiguous time scales from weather to seasonal, interannual, decadal predictions and centenial climate projections (e.g. WGNE+S2S to fill gap)

• Still unknown predictability & limited prediction skill for a range of key time-space scales and some important phenomena (PS e.g. systematic error affecting climate predictions)

• Lack of comprehensive approaches and experience in dealing with uncertainty (e.g. for extremes)

Proposed Research Strategy:

At the simplest level, Future Earth must answer fundamental questions about how and why the global environment is changing, what are likely future changes, what the implications are for humans and other species, and what choices can be made to reduce harmful risks and vulnerabilities, enhance resilience, and create prosperous futures.

ICSU’s Future Earth conceptual framework

Call for proposal: Fast Track Initiatives and Cluster ActivitiesDeadline 4 April 2014 – need some GEC core project umbrella

CMIP new structure

Earth System Grid FederationJSC34-WMAC2: Earth System Grid Federation

to become WCRP main mechanism for exchanging data (climate simulations+observations+reanalyses) in the next decade, including core projects

- on-going progress to publish CORDEX and WGSIP-CHFP simulations

WGCM: a new Infrastructure Panel to maintain standards and metadata across MIPS

Intercomparison Models-ObservationsIntercomparison Models-ObservationsCoordinated with CMIP5 are parallel efforts to collect and

make available observationally-based products

Obs4MIPs

A pilot effort to improve the connection between data experts and scientists involved in climate model evaluation. Aligned with CMIP5, with encouragement from the WGCM, WGNE, WDAC. NASA and the U.S. DOE have initiated the project with significant contributions of appropriate NASA products. This is expanding to other products from other agencies.Communities to contribute data to Obs4MIPs such as cryosphere, biogeochemistry, etc.

WDAC

• WDAC3, Galway, Ireland, May 2014: special session on (sea and land) fluxes: importance for ESM, coupling, …

• ECV inventory being developed jointly by CEOS, CGMS and WMO (WCRP+ GCOS)

• In prep: doc on best practices for data set assessments (+maturity index) and publications (DOI)

• obs4MIPs panel to identify suitable data sets for inclusion in ESGF/obs4MIPS and develop guidelines– obs4MIPs-CMIP workshop: 29 Apr – 1 May, NASA HQ: atmosphere,

ocean, land, cryosphere, carbon, chemistry, radiation, simulators, etc

• ana4MIPs parallel effort to bring reanalyses into ESGF

Very relevant, even if you think you are a “climate scientist”!

• Synergies with other groups (WGSIP, S2S, etc): maximize research impact, avoid duplications

• Potential stronger synergies between WGNE/WGCM Climate Model Metrics Panel (http://www-metrics-panel.llnl.gov/wiki) and WWRP/WGNE Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research (JWGFVR) – towards seamless metrics and verification

• Recommendation from the Systematic Error Workshop: establish a Transpose-CMIP effort: systematic biases in coupled climate models / ESM in weather-forecast/hindcast mode

– Similar to Transpose-AMIP– Potential for Transpose AMIP/CMIP comparison– WGNE engagement?

Miscellaneous

Thank you for your attention!