Water Year 2009 Forecast Review: Green River Basin

CRFS

November 19, 2009

Green River above Fontenelle

Elkhart Park June Precipitation

6.9

4.6 4.6

4.2

3.5

3 2.9 2.9 2.8

2.32.1 2 1.9 1.8

1.61.4 1.3

1.1 1.1 1.1 1 10.8 0.8 0.7 0.7

0.4 0.4 0.4

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

ranking (29 years)

inc

hes

June Average (inches)

Years: 1981-20092009

Elevation 9,400 feet

Note: June Precipitation (6.9 inches) was 52% of the Precipitation received during April-July (13.3 inches) and was 25% of the Precipitation received during October-July (27.1 inches).

Green River Above Fontenelle(> 20 Years POR)

967 kAF / 113%

Forecast RFC NRCS COORD

Date ESP SWS PREF DAILY LEGACY PREF KAF % AVG

Jan 1 775 855 765 701 840/780r 780 765 89%

Feb 1 722 820 765 774 850/795r 795 765 89%

Mar 1 690 680 690 712 785/720r 715 715 83%

Apr 1 733 686 730 713 770/720r 715 715 83%

May 1 770 708 750 811 835/785r 750 750 87%

Jun 1 640  719 660 720 810/760r 750 705  82%

Streamflow Scatterplot ~ 1991-2009 ~ Coordinated Forecast

Green - Fontenelle Res, Fontenelle Nr (GBRW4)

AprilJanuary June

Green River above Flaming Gorge

Green River above Flaming GorgeBasin Conditions WY2009

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

MonthlyPrecipitation

Water YearPrecipitation

Snow WaterEquivalent

% o

f 197

1-20

00 a

vera

ge

As of Jan 1

As of Feb 1

As of Mar 1

As of Apr 1

As of May 1

As of Jun1

As of Jul 1

As of Aug 1

Green River above Flaming Gorge (>20 year POR)

Flaming Gorge Local(> 20 Years POR)

1197 kAF / 101%

Forecast RFC NRCS COORD

Date ESP SWS PREF DAILY LEGACY PREF KAF % AVG

Jan 1 1010 1061 900 963 1080/1060r 1020 910 76%

Feb 1 815 1056 910 982 1120/915r 915 910 76%

Mar 1 750 968 820 922 1070/970r 845 845 71%

Apr 1 820 1020 820 990 1070/985r 800 810 68%

May 1 929 1190 890 1148 1200/1060r 890 890 75%

Jun 1 783 929 805 1013 1190/1050r 890 850 71%

Streamflow Scatterplot ~ 1991-2009 ~ Coordinated Forecast

Green – Flaming Gorge Reservoir (GRNU1)

January April June

Yampa River Basin

Yampa and WhiteBasin Conditions WY2009

0

50

100

150

200

250

MonthlyPrecipitation

Water YearPrecipitation

Snow WaterEquivalent

% o

f 197

1-20

00 a

vera

ge

As of Jan 1

As of Feb 1

As of Mar 1

As of Apr 1

As of May 1

As of Jun1

As of Jul 1

As of Aug 1

Little Snake R. near Lily(>20 Years POR)

522 kAF / 142%

Forecast RFC NRCS COORD

Date ESP SWS PREF DAILY LEGACY PREF KAF % AVG

Jan 1 348 355 360 319 340/345r 345 350 96%

Feb 1 410 415 415 416 420/395r 400 400 110%

Mar 1 411 439 430 433 430/430r 420 430 118%

Apr 1 464 467 430 471 440/430r 430 430 118%

May 1 542 476 505 472 420/490r 490 490 134%

Jun 1 457 418 455 423 370/440r 440 445 122%

Yampa River near Maybell(>20 years POR)

1137 kAF / 115%

Forecast RFC NRCS COORD

Date ESP SWS PREF DAILY LEGACY PREF KAF % AVG

Jan 1 890 913 900 888 845/940r 940 910 76%

Feb 1 1068 975 1030 1113 1060/1120r 1100 1070 108%

Mar 1 968 1080 1070 1088 1050/1120r 1070 1070 108%

Apr 1 1010 1027 1010 1109 1070/1070r 1070 1070 108%

May 1 1034 - 1020 989 965/1060r 1050 1040 105%

Jun 1 969 932 955 854 930/990r 990 965 97%

Historic Peak Average Peak Flood Flow 2008 Peak 2008 Date Normal time

Yampa Deerlodge Park 32,300 13,955 17,200 21,800 23-May 5/11 - 6/6

Isssuance Date 90% 75% 50% 25% 10%

1-Mar 11,700 13,500 15,500 17,700 22,900

1-Apr 13,400 15,000 16,300 18,400 22,000

7-May - - 14,200 15,700 17,500

2009 Mean Daily Peak:

15,600 cfs on 5/27

Yampa River at DeerlodgePeak Flow Forecasts (mean daily cfs)