© 2009, business forecast systems, inc


• Opt-in Survey of Trends e-Newsletter Readers• 77 Completed Responses• Questions Asked:

1. Does your organization formally track forecast accuracy?2. If yes, do you have a target/goal for forecast accuracy?3. If you have a target/goal for forecast accuracy how is it set?4. What accuracy measure do you use?

• Original Survey and Trends Archive Available at:

www.forecastpro.com/resources/trends/index.htm


Not all who track their forecast accuracy have a specific target or goal.


The ways that accuracy targets are set are diverse, however, a management-dictated target is the single most prevalent way.


Nearly 90% of those who measure accuracy do so in percentage terms, either MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error), WMAPE (Weighted Mean Absolute Percent Error) or Acceptability Range (e.g., +/- X%).


Set Target Using Forecastability

Set Target Using Benchmarks

Target Dictated by Management

Acceptability Range (+/- X%) as a measure of accuracy is more prevalent when accuracy targets/goals are dictated by management.


Next Steps: Look at Forecast Bias

Several respondents mentioned the issue of bias, noting that they were either already tracking forecast bias or that their focus and efforts on forecast accuracy had led them to believe that additional opportunities for forecast improvement could be driven by looking closely at bias.


Additional Resources

www.forecasters.org/foresight/index.htmlWeb Site for Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting

http://bus.utk.edu/forecasting/readings.htmThe University of Tennessees Sales Forecasting Management Forum’s On-Line Library: Downloadable

PDFs of Articles and Papers on a Wide Range of Forecasting Topics, Including Accuracy and Benchmarking

www.forecastingprinciples.comProfessor Scott Armstrong at the Wharton School’s “Forecasting Principles” Site

www.forecasters.orgInternational Institute of Forecasters Web Site

© 2009, business forecast systems, inc

Documents

forecast accuracy

business forecast systems

forecast bias

forecast improvement

accuracy measure

measure of accuracy

accuracy targetsgoals

forecastability set