wargaming for defense leaders...wargaming with enough of a foundation in the field that they can...
TRANSCRIPT
Wargaming
Matthew B. Caffrey Jr.17 July 2018
Disclaimer
The following views are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Air Force Research Laboratory, Air Force Materiel Command or the United States Air Force
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Purpose
Provide Connections 2018 participants who are new to wargaming with enough of a foundation in the field that they can productively learn from and contribute to the
balance of the conference – and beyond.
Matt Caffrey• DoD Civil Servant – previous positions
– AFRL Liaison to HQ AFMC for Wargaming– Lead Wargaming, Air Force Research Laboratory– Professor of Wargaming, Air Command & Staff Col– Research, School for Advanced Airpower Studies
• Col USAFR (ret.) - assignments– Senior Reservist, AFRL Info Directorate– Chief Wargaming, AF/XOOC (Checkmate)
• Author/Speaker– Author, On Wargaming– Co-author, Gulf War Fact Book– Three chapters, a dozen wargames, many articles,
hundreds of talks
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Overview
• Why Wargaming
• What is Wargaming
• How does it provide an edge
Why Go To a Particular Movie
• Good reviews, from sources you respect• Popularity, top box office• Past performance, previous movies by the
same director, actor, screen writer…
Why Wargaming
• Endorsed by Masters of War• Nearly Universal Adoption• Past Performance
– again and again wargaming has provided an edge
Why WargamingEndorsements
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FADM Chester Nimitz Gen Norman Schwarzkopf Gen William Wallace
Why WargamingNear Universal Adoption
• NATO: Live & constructive +– Joint Air Power Competence Center, – Sweden's Wargames in support of Partnership for Peace
1. USA: See next slide 2. Russia: Much known of Soviet WGing, catching up 3. China: Soviet > OJT > commercial > centralized4. India: Live WGs with US & Russia, ops planning 5. UK: Live, virtual, constructive – Civ; def, ed & popular6. France: Live, virtual, constructive 7. Germany: 2000 Wargame Center at War College
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Why WargamingNear Universal Adoption
• Office of the Secretary of Defense– Office of Net Assessment (ONA)– Office of Cost Assessment & Program Evaluation (CAPE)– Policy
• Joint Staff– J-8, Studies Analysis and Gaming Division (SAGD)
• Combatant Commands (COCOMs)– US Central Command, Combat Analysis Group– US European Command, Warrior Preparation Center– US Pacific Command, Warfighting Center of the Pacific– US Special Operation Command, Wargame Center
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Why WargamingNear Universal Adoption
• Services– Air Force, LeMay Center Wargaming Institute, Global Engagement, Futures – Army, Center for Strategic Leadership, AWC, Unified Quest– Navy, Wargame Department NWC, Navy Global– Marine Corps, Wargame Department, Expeditionary Warrior
• Federally Funded R&D Centers (FFRDC)– RAND, Project Air Force– Center for Naval Analysis (CNA)– MITRE, JHU/APL
• Defense Contractors– Booz Allen Hamilton– SAIC
• Academic; used wargames to teach & wargaming taught• Popular; computer, print, miniatures
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Why WargamingPast Performance
Why Wargaming
• Wargaming saves lives
• For the side that wargames more effectively
What Is a Wargame?
14Created by Col Uwe Heilmann, German Air Force, for your instructor in 1999
Reality
Simulation
Model
Simulation Game
Wargame
Proportional Representation
Over Time
Multisided
Armed Conflict
Definitions
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Wargame: an armed conflict simulation game.My definition
Wargame: A simulation, by whatever means, of a military operation involving two or more opposing forces using rules, data, and procedures designed to depict an actual or assumed real life situation.
DOD Dictionary of Military Terms (now deleted)
Wargame: A simulation of armed conflict in which participant decisions influence outcomes
Emerging, largely Dr. Perla
Definitions
What Are It’s Elements?
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Friendly Forces Opposing Forces
Game Control
AdjudicationAnalysis
After-Action Reporting
My thanks to Ms. Diana Lynn for enhancing this slide.
The Wargame Process
Initial State
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The Wargame Process
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Initial State
Blue Plan
The Wargame Process
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Initial State
Blue PlanRed Plan
The Wargame Process
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Initial State
Blue PlanRed Plan
Adjudication
The Wargame Process
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Initial State
Blue Plan
Red PlanAdjudication
The Wargame Process
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Initial State
Blue Plan
Red PlanAdjudication
End State
The Wargame Process
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End State
Initial State
End State Move 1 Initial State Move 2
End State Move 2 Initial State Move 3
Types of Wargames
Each has advantages and disadvantages.
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Parameters of Wargaming
Cost
Duration
Participants
Days
300
HoursWeeks
Months
Years
30
1200
12
6
3
1,000,000s
100s
10,000,000s
Free
1 Billion+
10,000s100,000s
1,000s
Other Parameters Include:Depth into future of scenarioLevel of War (tac to strat)Prep time (0 to a lot)Level of detail
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How Does It Provide An Edge
• More effective forces
• More effective employment
More Effective Forces
• Education and Training
• Doctrine and Tactics
• Materiel
More Effective Employment
• Strategic
• Operational
• Tactical
Conclusion
• Wargaming saves lives
• For the side that wargames more effectively