Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Hands-on

Training Workshop for LACAsuncion, Paraguay, 14-18, August, 2006

Integration of V&A Analysisby

Vute Wangwacharakul

Outline

Introduction Integration of results Cross sector and multi-sector integration Setting priorities

Vulnerability Adaptation Examples

Conclusions

Introduction

Commitments Under Articles 4.1 and 12.1 Parties should

develop and publish their national communications.

Guidelines Parties should communicate to the COP a

general description of programs containing measures to facilitate adequate adaptation, etc. (decision 17/CP.8)

Reporting Components

The following categories of impacts/vulnerability are expected to be reported: agriculture, tourism, health, forests, water resources, infrastructure, rangeland, coastal regions, ecosystems and biodiversity, wildlife, fisheries and the economy.

Para. 34 of the Guidelines

Non-Annex I Parties are encouraged to provi

de information on their vulnerability to the i

mpacts of, and their adaptation to, climate

change in key vulnerable areas. Information

should include key findings, and direct and in

direct effects arising from climate change,

allowing for an integrated analysis of the c

ountry’s vulnerability to climate change.

“an integrated analysis”

Two possible interpretations Information provided in SNC should allow for

communicating national vulnerability to climate change in “an integrated manner”

Integrated analysis of V&A is encouraged, particularly in the key vulnerable areas

We emphasize the second one

Integrated Assessment

Integrated Assessment can be defined an interdisciplinary process of combining, interpreting and communicating knowledge from diverse scientific disciplines in such a way that the whole set cause-effect interactions of a problem can be evaluated.

Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation

Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate change and variation, to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity and its adaptive capacity [Summary for Policy Makers (IPCC WG II)]

Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities or to cope with the consequences [Summary for Policy Makers (IPCC WG II]

Why is Integration Important?

Impacts do not happen in isolation Impacts in one sector can adversely or positively affect

another Some sectors are affected directly and/or indirectly Sector linkages could reduce the extent of the impacts

of climate change The issues addressed are dynamic in nature Integration is necessary for ranking vulnerabilities

and adaptations

Main Types of Integration of Results

Cross-sector integration Link related sectors (I-V-A in selected sectors;

qualitative or quantitative) Multi-sector integration (System approach;

quantitative) Economy or system wide models

Integrated assessment models Economy-wide models (mathematic or

econometric models)

Some Integrated Assessment Models

IMAGE ICLIPS CLIMPACTS MIASMA AIM

Cross-sector models

CC - water resources - agriculture CC - temperature - mosquitoes - health CC - temperature - heat wave - health CC - rainfall - flood/drought - agriculture etc.

mostly quantitative

Integrating WEAP and CROPWAT

CLIMATEPrecip.,Temp.,

Solar Rad.

WEAPEvaluationPlanning

CROPWATRegionalirrigation

CE Integrating WEAP and CROPWAT RESCrop water

demand

WATBALStreamflow

PET

SCENARIOSGCM

SCENARIOSPopulation, Development,

Technology

An Example:

IAM in Cuba: Agriculture and water resources (considered d

emographic, technology, food consumption) Potato yield would be dropped and worsen by

water problem and population Technology only marginally reduced the effect

s. Changing sowing date could be good adaptatio

n measure for maize

Multi-sector Integration Modeling

IMAGE Model

Regional/National Economic Models

Quantitative way to examine climate change market impacts throughout an economy Problem with non-market impacts

Mostly macroeconomic models or general equilibrium models

Require much data Complex and can be expensive Communication of assumptions can be a

challenge

An Example of a Regional Model

Asia Integrated Model

A More “Simple” Approach

Add up results sector by sector Limited by what is known within sectors Problem of how to integrate across multiple

end points Impacts may be measured with different

metrics Need to account for many sectors Does not capture sectoral interactions

Estimates of Damages for India

Sector Damages ($ billions)

Agriculture -53.2

Forestry +0.1

Energy -21.9

Water -$1.2

Coastal Resources -$1.2

Can Also Measure Number of People Affected

“Millions at Risk” study did this Global burden of disease

Millions at Risk Study

At a Minimum

Should at least qualitatively identify linkages and possible direction of impacts

If crops can be examined, not water supply, then identify how change in water supply could affect agricultural production

Integration through Setting Priorities

Vulnerability Adaptation

Prioritization of Vulnerabilities

It can be quite useful for Focusing adaptation measures Monitoring Adaptation

Examples of Adaptation Integration

Caribbean (CPACC, GEF/WORLD BANK, CIDA) Integration of adaptation into national policies dealing with

risk management and into their Environment Impact Assessment procedures.

Mozambique (World Bank) Integrating Adaptation to climate change risks into Action

Plan for Poverty Reduction

Bangladesh (CARE-CIDA) Climate change adaptation is mainstreamed into

sustainable development planning

Example of Adaptation Integration

China (ADB, World Bank) helping poor farmers adapt to drought

conditions- government undertook integrated ecosystems management-house-level eco-farming integrated renewable energy such as solar power, vineyard cultivation and legume planting for fixing sand and providing forage.

Process is as Important as Outcome

This is an expression of values, not a purely analytic exercise

Need to include stakeholders and policy makers

The following are tools that can be useful in setting priorities

Whether you use qualitative or quantitative approach, the important thing is learning-by-doing

NAPA Process

Adaptation Policy Framework

Table 4: Ranking of priority systems/regions/climate hazards

C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6

System/Region/Hazard

Social impacts

Economic impacts

Environmental impacts

Political impacts

Ranking

A          

B          

C          

OECD Method

Table 5.5. Nepal ranking

Resource/ranking Certainty of

impact Timing of

impact Severity of

impact Importance of

resource

Water resources (flooding) High High High High Agriculture Medium-low Medium-low Medium High Human health Low Medium ? High Biodiversity Low ? ? Medium-high

Ranking Adaptations

Screening Multicriteria assessment Benefit-cost analysis

Screening Matrix for Human Settlement and Tourism Adaptation Measure in Antigua

Multicriteria Assessment

Options Effectiveness Feasibility Cost Score

A 3 2 2 7

B 2 4 4 10

C 5 1 3 9

Benefit-Cost Analysis

Estimate all benefits and costs in a common metric to determine whether benefits > costs

Monetary values often used Difficulty: what to do about non-market

benefits or uncertainties Difficulty: requires much data and analysis

BCA Example: Sea Walls in Kiribati

What to Use

Conclusions

Integration is important to at least identify related impacts Analysis is desirable because there can be

surprises Integration can also be useful for examining

total vulnerability and ranking vulnerabilities It is interdisciplinary process

Conclusions

There should be involvement of local stakeholders, the private sector, individuals, the research community and different levels of government.

Awareness raising and capacity building also essential.